About the project
This project aims to understand:
- the current crisis in Europe and its institutional responses, stressing the interaction between politics, economic development, and social change
- the European migration, mobility, and economic growth in the light of national identities, and social and economic strains
- the economic and political feasibility of the European Social Model emphasizing how temporary shocks may create permanent institutional changes once we incorporate economic, social, and political relations
National collaboration
ESOP collaborates with the Department of Political Science, the Department of Social Anthropology at UiO, Fafo Institute for Labour and Social Research, the Frisch Centre, and the Institute for Social Research (ISF) about this interdisciplinary research project.
By involving the disciplines political science, social anthropology, sociology, and economics, the project aims to use an integrated social, economic and institutional approach to explore the nature and the effects of the crisis on the European institutions.
Sub-projects
1. The Crisis and its Institutional Responses
Institutional change that prepare for new policies, can be more important than the crisis policy itself. Short-term economic, social and political adjustments can have lasting consequences. One sub-project will look at the crisis as the mother of social reform whereas other projects will study the effects of the crisis when it comes to wage and employment responses and European social values and social cohesion, among other things.
Crisis as the mother of social reform
Participants: Carl Henrik Knutsen and Kalle Moene
Under what conditions can economic and social crisis be conducive to productivity enhancing reforms? Many believe that crisis is the mother of progressive reforms and new social pacts. Our basic assertion is that the institutional response to the crisis reflects more the local national conditions prior to the crisis than the crisis itself.
The effects of the crisis: Wage and employment responses
Participants: Erling Barth, Bernt Bratsberg, Ana Rute Cardoso, David Card, Davis, Christian Dustman, Richard Freeman, Heinung, Kalle Moene and Oddbjørn Raaum
The crisis related labor demand collapses of Europe and North America provide a unique opportunity to explore how wages and employment respond to changes in economic conditions. We plan to estimate how individual wages respond to the crisis.
The effects of the crisis: EU legislative politics
Participants: Simon Hix and Høyland
How does the economic crisis change legislative politics in the EU? We are planning to develop a database that will enable us to compare the political effects of the crisis on different parts of Europe.
The effects of the crisis: European social values and social cohesion
Participants: Erling Barth, Finneraas, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Kalle Moene
Another way of approaching the social effects of the crisis is to use survey data on peoples' attitudes and perceptions. There are indications that the crisis has changed social preferences of people. The change seems to go in the direction of more individualism. If true, it indicates that social care disappears when it is most needed.
The effects of the crisis: collective bargaining by riots
Participants: Scott Gates, Halvor Mehlum, Kalle Moene and Stergios Skaperdas
The financial crisis and the euro crisis seem to undermine trust and social cohesion. Instead there are in many places social unrest, riots and anger.
We plan to explore the causes and consequences of rising strike incidences in several European countries. What are the consequences for choice of production techniques, social efficiency and income distribution?
The effects of the crisis: Macroeconomic policies in a union
Participants: Steinar Holden, Halvor Mehlum and Kalle Moene
The introduction of the common currency is the most important milestone in the European integration. When the European Commission lists the benefits of the euro it boils down to increased transparency in addition to the symbolic value of issuing one of the world's major currencies. These benefits may be substantial but the challenges and problems might prove to be even larger. We want to explore how this cross country fusion of monetary policy works with fiscal policy still at the country level.
The effects of the crisis: How soft is the European cushion? Earnings instability and income replacement in European welfare states
Participants: Tarjei Havnes and Kristin Solberg-Johansen
The income instability faced by individuals and households is both a key determinant of policy and a major policy concern. How much does the earnings instability translate into instability in disposable income in the different countries? How important are household adjustments to cushion against the earnings instability as compared to taxes and transfers, and how does this varies across European countries?
2. Migration, Mobility, and Growth
Before the euro the development in Europe was marked by convergence across countries. Now, the development seems to be marked by more divergence. One sub-project will look further into this current trend. Another sub-project will explore how Europe will restore growth and development.
How will Europe restore growth and employment?
Participants: Rolf Golombek, Andreas Moxnes, Knut Røed and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe
Emerging markets challenge Europe’s competitiveness in manufacturing. Almost none of the world’s recent entrepreneurial success stories have taken place in Europe.
In the current crises, European governments have started policy reforms that may boost entrepreneurship. For such reforms to be well designed we need to know more about the determinants of entrepreneurial activities.
Labor migration, structural change and firm response
Participants: Bernt Bratsberg, Chrisitan Dustman, Jon Erik Dølvik, Andreas Moxnes, Knut Røed, Oddbjørn Raaum, Pål Schøne and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe
Despite free labor mobility, the 1980s and 90s saw surprisingly little labor migration between European countries. This changed after the Eastern enlargement of the EU in 2004 and 2007.
In the aftermath of the crisis with rising regional imbalances, migration flows between European countries are expected to increase, but magnitude and skill composition are crucial for the effects of free mobility on both receiving and sending countries. We plan to analyze gross cross national flows across Europe, and to break the number
down by skills.
A second study focus on detailed worker flows to Norway. We want to analyze crucial factors that affect these flows to Norway.
The European future: towards divergence or convergence
Participants: Richard Baldwin, Rikard Forslid, Beata Javorcik, Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe and Anthony Venables
We want to revisit the question of the consequences of establishing the single market and single currency, and investigate how measures that would contribute to the completion of the monetary union and further realization of the four freedoms (free mobility of goods, services, people and capital) affect economic development and inequality across European countries and society groups.
3. The Future of the European Social Model
When promotion of the European Social Model became one of the main EU objectives, the national social models faced new challenges and constraints. One sub-project will focus on the national and European responses to the multilevel governance of the European labour markets.
Multilevel governance of European labour markets: National and European responses
Participants: Jon Erik Dølvik, Line Eldring, Stein Evju, Guglielmo Meardi, Maarten Keune and Thorsten Schulten.
Comparing changes in the Nordic countries, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Poland, the study will concentrate on the following main issues:
- Mapping changes in EU regulations of labor markets and cross-border work – focusing on their causes and likely consequences for different national systems.
- Comparative analyses of key changes in national labor market regulation and institutions with emphasis on minimum wage setting.
- Comparative case study of the implications of the currently implemented changes in the rights for temporary agency workers.
A Common European Asylum System Amidst national divergence, international rights and migrant strategies
Participants: Jan-Paul Brekke and Grete Brochmann
The field of migration provides an excellent opportunity for studying the discrepancy and tension between the supranational ambitions at the EU-level and persistent national differences.
We use the contrast between the Southern rim (Italy and Greece) and the prosperous North (Sweden and Norway) as the empirical basis for the study. Our aim is to explore strains between the supranational and the national policy levels. Adding the migrants themselves we get three three levels of analysis: institution, policy and agency.
The paradox of welfare and the optimal unit of social policy
Participants: Erling Barth, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, Halvor Mehlum and Kalle Moene
The welfare paradox can be presented by four observations:
- a) In contrast to welfare state services the production of private sector commodities are easy to mechanize. This effect, called the Baumol effect, favors the private sector.
- b) While the private sector produces tempting goods providing immediate pleasure, the welfare state produces services delivered without immediate consumer sovereignty. The temptation effect stages individual preferences in favor the private sector.
- c) As people get richer they demand relatively more services. This effect, related to the so-called Wagner’s law, favors the welfare state.
- d) Since both sectors must pay similar wages, the welfare state become relatively more expensive the richer society becomes, making temptation goods cheaper and welfare services relatively more expensive.
The willingness to pay for the welfare state declines with societies' capacity to pay for it.
We believe that the welfare paradox also speaks to the present crisis in Europe, and that it is more evident in some countries than in others.
The paradox of welfare also has implications for possible reforms and for the future of the European social model. For instance, what should be considered an optimal unit
for the redistribution and social insurance when the policy requires majority support?
Is it the family, the commune, the national state, the EU, or the world?
International cooperation
Researchers from Dartmouth College, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Geneva, Hans Böckler Stiftung Düsseldorf, Harvard University, Institute für Arbeitsmarkt und Berufsforschung Nürnberg, Institute of Economic Analysis in Barcelona, London School of Economics, University of Amsterdam, University of California at Berkeley, University of California at Irvine, University of Milan, University of Oxford, University of Warwick, Stockholm University and US Census.
More information
Events
2017: The Oslo Turnout Workshop
Time and place: Dec. 19, 2017 12:00 PM – Dec. 20, 2017 4:30 PM, Hannah ryggen meeting room (1004), 10th floor, Lucy Smiths house
ESOP is organising a European Strains workshop set to take place at the University of Oslo 19-20 December.
Host: Halvor Mehlum
Programme
Tuesday December 19
- 12-13 Keynote: David Nickerson, Temple University. “The Opportunities and Challenges of Leveraging Social Networks by Political Campaigns"
- 13.15-14.45
- Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Uppsala University. “Can increased education help reduce the political opportunity gap?”
- Andreas Kotsadam, Frisch. ” Big Brother Sees You, But Does He Rule You? The Relationship Between Birth Order and Political Participation”
- 15-16.30
- Kasper M. Hansen, København Universitet. “Voting is a social act - The Danish Turnout Project”
- Henning Finseraas, ISF Oslo. “Ancestry Culture and Voter Turnout in Two Generations”
- 16.45-18.15
- Pär Nyman, Uppsala University. “The Effects of Having Peers Whose Parents are Politicians”
- Jon Fiva, BI. “How electoral rules shape party systems: evidence from the 1919 Norwegian electoral reform”
Wednesday December 20
- 9-10.30
- Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Copenhagen Business School. “Trickle-up political socialization: The causal effect on turnout of parenting a newly enfranchised voter”
- Mikael Persson, Gothenburg. Income, Wealth and Voting: Evidence from register data matched with voter studies”
- 10.45-12.15
- Giovanni Facchini, University of Nottingham. “Immigrant selection into politics”
- Hanna Wass, University of Helsinki. “Can’t have enough of a good thing: The findings from the Finnish individual-level turnout data”
- 13.15-14.45
- Christopher Dawes, New York University. “Self Control and Voter Turnout”
- Bernt Bratsberg, Frisch. ”Refugee Settlement and Immigrants’ Political Integration”
- 15-16.30
- Jo Thori Lind, UiO. “Hand in hand we vote - The effect of spousal voting on electoral turnout”
- Hannu Lahtinen, University of Helsinki: “Do surveys overestimate or underestimate socioeconomic differences in voter turnout? Evidence from administrative registers
2017: European Strains Workshop
Time and place: – , Hannah Ryggen seminar room (1003), Lucy Smiths hus
ESOP is organising a European Strains workshop set to take place at the University of Oslo August 31.
Host: Halvor Mehlum
Programme
- 09.00-11.00
- Andreas Kotsadam, Jørgen Modalsli & Jo Thori Lind (UiO): Call the Midwife. Health Personnel and Mortality in Norway 1887-1921.
- Gisle Natvik, Ragnar Torvik & Halvor Mehlum (UiO): The Political Dutch Disease
- 11.30-13.30
- Bernt Bratsberg, Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, Oddbjørn Raaum & Andreas Moxnes (UiO): Opening the Floodgates: Immigration and Structural Change
- Jon Erik Dølvik (FAFO): Collective Bargaining in Northern Europe under Strain: Multiple drivers of change and differing conditions for responding to them.
- 13.30-15.30 Lunch (including department seminar with Luigi Pistaferri)
- 15.45-17.45
- Anders Kjelsrud (UiO): The rise of China and European labor markets
- Oddbjørn Raaum (Frisch Centre): Immigrant Election Turnout
- 18.30 Dinner
2015: European Strains Workshop
Time and place: – , ES 1047, ESOP Seminar room
Workshop in the European Strains project.
Programme
- 12:45: Welcoming remarks by Halvor Mehlum, ESOP, UiO
- 13:00: Henning Finseraas, ISF: Insurance and redistribution motives? Behaviours and beliefs in the welfare state (with Barth, Moene and Østbakken)
- 13:20: Oddbjørn Raaum, Frisch: Immigration impacts (with Bratsberg, Brunborg Hoen, Moxnes, Ulltveit Moe)
- 13:40: Bjørn Høyland, ISV, UiO: Delegation in the European Parliament (with Fang-Yi Chiou and Lyder Hermansen)
- 14:20: Halvor Mehlum: The political economy of the welfare state (with Moene)
- 15:00: Cahtrine Moe Thorleifsson, SAI, UiO: Nationalist responses to the crisis in Europe: Old and new hatreds
- 16:00: Jan-Paul Brekke, ISF: Little room to maneuver. A multi-level approach to asylum governance in Europe (with Brochmann)
- 16:20: Marianne Røed, ISF: Reduction or deflection? The effect of policy on interconnected asylum flows (with Brekke and Schøne)
- 16:40: Administrative issues
2014: ERWIT conference 2014
Time and place: – , Auditorium 2, Georg Sverdrups hus
European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT) takes place in Oslo 4-6 June 2014.
The workshop is part of the activities of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London and is the most prestigious conference in International Trade.
ERWIT is an annual workshop that brings together international economists from across Europe and key researchers from outside the region. The workshop disseminates the findings of recent research on international trade, and presentations often involve exploratory rather than finished papers. It provides a unique opportunity to discuss trade-related research in a relaxed atmosphere. Another important aim of ERWIT is to provide young researchers with the opportunity to meet and discuss their work with senior economists.
This year's organizers are Diego Puga (CEMFI, Madrid and CEPR), Simon Evenett (University of St. Gallen and CEPR), and Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe (University of Oslo and CEPR).
