Tags:
International Politics,
Bureaucratic Politics,
Conflict,
USA,
Global South,
Democracy
Publications
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Dahl, Marianne; Celestino, Mauricio Rivera; Gates, Scott & Sagård, Tora
(2026).
Security force disloyalty in nonviolent and violent campaigns, 1970–2013: introducing a new dataset.
Journal of Peace Research.
ISSN 0022-3433.
63(2),
p. 279–288.
doi:
10.1093/jopres/xjaf020.
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Murshed, Syed Mansoob; Gates, Scott; Hasan, Rashel & Badiuzzaman, Muhammad
(2025).
How Inequality and Repression Affect the Link between Food Insecurity and Urban Social Disorder.
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.
ISSN 1079-2457.
31(2),
p. 229–257.
doi:
10.1515/peps-2024-0059.
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We examine the relationship between food insecurity and urban social disorder, featuring the degree of inequality and levels of governmental repression. We develop a formal theoretical model, and our empirical results suggest that food price volatility contributes significantly to conflict events as measured by the PRIO Urban Social Disorder data. We measure vertical inequality using the V-DEM egalitarian index, which is negatively significant; greater inequality sparks unrest. Inter-group horizontal inequality is also statistically significantly related to the risk of food riots. Government transfers are weakly associated with reducing conflict incidence. Governmental repression, in contrast, is associated with food riots across our estimations.
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Dahl, Marianne; Rivera, Mauricio & Gates, Scott
(2025).
Disaggregating Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty.
Journal of Conflict Resolution.
ISSN 0022-0027.
70(1),
p. 170–195.
doi:
10.1177/00220027251348389.
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Extant research posits that nonviolent campaigns increase security force defection during dissent, thereby improving their success rates over violent campaigns. Yet empirical evidence remains limited and mixed. We argue that this is partly due to overly aggregated measures of disloyalty that mask important variation. To address this, we disaggregate security force disloyalty both theoretically and empirically. We contend that nonviolent and violent strategies impose distinct costs on security forces—related to repression, fighting, and exit—which shape the likelihood of different forms of disloyalty. Our findings reveal that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to trigger large-scale loyalty shifts, but their effects are confined to specific types of disloyalty. Specifically, nonviolent strategies increase the likelihood of shirking, vocal support for opposition campaigns or criticism of the regime, and withdrawal of regime support. By contrast, desertion and side-switching are more likely during violent campaigns.
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Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard
(2022).
Patterns of Democracy over Space and Time.
International Studies Quarterly.
ISSN 0020-8833.
66(3).
doi:
10.1093/isq/sqac041.
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Abstract Unidimensional measures of democracy fail to account for the complex and varied nature of political systems. This article disaggregates the concept of democracy and proposes a multidimensional conceptualization to account for this variation in institutional configurations. Three theoretically informed dimensions are featured: participation, electoral contestation, and constraints on the executive. The three dimensions constitute a cube covering all regime types, in which we place countries using V-Dem data from 1789 to 2019. This cube of democracy patterns reveals several interesting observations. We trace historical patterns of democratization and discuss how countries across the world have taken different paths at different times. Our conceptualization shows that political systems with a similar score along a unidimensional scale are often quite distinct. In addition, across the globe for 200 years, certain configurations of political institutions rarely occur. Furthermore, our approach reveals interesting patterns of regime convergence and divergence over time. Finally, we show that the typical pathways to democracy have changed since 1789. This multidimensional conceptualization ultimately opens up new avenues for research in which institutional variation and change can be studied in greater detail.
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Bayerlein, Michael; Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Kamin, Katrin & Murshed, Syed Mansoob
(2021).
Populism and COVID-19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic.
Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy.
ISSN 2689-4823.
2(3),
p. 389–428.
doi:
10.1561/113.00000043.
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Populist parties and actors now govern various countries around the world. Often elected by the public in times of crises and over the perceived failure of ‘the elites’, the question stands as to how populist governments actually perform once elected, especially in times of crisis. Using the pandemic shock in the form of the COVID-19 crises, our paper poses the question of how populist governments handle the pandemic. We answer this question by introducing a theoretical framework according to which populist governments (1) enact less far-reaching policy measures to counter the pandemic and (2) lower the effort of citizens to counter the pandemic, so that populist governed countries are (3) hit worse by the pandemic. We test these propositions in a sample of 42 countries with weekly data from 2020. Employing econometric models, we find empirical support for our propositions and ultimately conclude that excess mortality in populist governed countries exceeds the excess mortality of non-populist countries by 8 percentage points (i.e., 98%). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of populist government performance in general, as well as counter-pandemic measures in particular, by providing evidence that opportunistic and inadequate policy responses, spreading misinformation and downplaying the pandemic are strongly related to increases in COVID-19 mortality.
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Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; Dahl, Marianne; Gates, Scott & González, Belén
(2021).
Accounting for numbers: Group characteristics and the choice of violent and nonviolent tactics.
The Economics of Peace and Security Journal.
16(1),
p. 5–25.
doi:
10.15355/epsj.16.1.5.
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Druce, Philippa; Bogatyreva, Ekaterina; Gates, Scott; Siem, Frederik François; Kaade, Hanna & Sundby, Johanne
[Show all 14 contributors for this article]
(2019).
Approaches to protect and maintain health care services in armed conflict - Meeting SDGs 3 and 16.
Conflict and Health.
13:2,
p. 1–4.
doi:
10.1186/s13031-019-0186-0.
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The escalation of conflict in the Middle East coincides with an emerging trend of attacks on healthcare. Protection of health personnel, health services and humanitarian workers is no longer respected. This compromises the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 3 – towards health for all, and 16 – towards justice and peace. The Centre for Global Health at the University of Oslo, the Peace Research Institute Oslo and the Norwegian Red Cross co-organised a meeting exploring how conflict impacts health systems and potential solutions to protect and maintain health care services.
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Hillesund, Solveig; Barrett, Gray; Bahgat, Karim; Dupuy, Kendra; Gates, Scott & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
[Show all 10 contributors for this article]
(2018).
Horizontal inequality and armed conflict: a comprehensive literature review.
Revue canadienne d'études du développement.
ISSN 0225-5189.
p. 1–19.
doi:
10.1080/02255189.2018.1517641.
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Investigation of whether, how, and why inequality influences the dynamics of violent conflict has a long intellectual history. Inequality between individuals and households (vertical inequality) has dominated the literature, but recently attention has shifted to the role of group-based inequalities in triggering violence. Our review of research on the relationship between conflict mobilisation and violence, and “horizontal inequality” (inequalities based on group identities such as ethnicity, region, and religion) reveals solid support for the argument that high levels of horizontal economic and political inequalities among the relatively deprived make violent conflict more likely.
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Gates, Scott
(2017).
Membership matters:
Coerced recruits and rebel allegiance.
Journal of Peace Research.
ISSN 0022-3433.
54(5),
p. 674–686.
doi:
10.1177/0022343317722700.
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Unable to attract enough voluntary recruits, many rebel groups rely on force to fill their ranks. Given that the group used force to compel individuals to join, a coerced conscript would be presumed unlikely to be loyal and would be expected to desert at the first opportunity. Yet, groups that have relied on coerced recruitment retain their members just as well as, if not better than, rebel armies that rely on voluntary methods of recruitment. This is a puzzle. How do rebel groups maintain allegiance and prevent desertion, especially if they rely on abduction to staff their ranks? A recruit can be forced to join a rebel group, but continuing to rely on coercion to enforce retention is too costly and not sustainable. These groups must find a way to reduce the costs of retention. The solution to this puzzle rests in the mechanisms of socialization that shape the allegiance of forcibly recruited soldiers. Socialization mechanisms are traced through three outcomes: compliance (or Type 0 socialization), role learning (Type I socialization), and norm internalization (Type II socialization). Integrating socialization theory and a rational choice analysis demonstrates that mechanisms that alter preferences through Type II socialization are effective in retaining recruits; the highest level of retention occurs when several mechanisms work in concert. Illustrative case studies of the Lord’s Resistance Army from Uganda, the Revolutionary United Front in Sierra Leone, the Maoists in Nepal, and the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) show that a reliance on child soldiers, group assets (pecuniary and non-pecuniary), organizational structure, and the nature of military contestation shape when different mechanisms are effective or not.
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Strøm, Kaare; Gates, Scott; Graham, Ben & Strand, Håvard
(2017).
Inclusion, dispersion, and constraint: powersharing in the world's states, 1975-2010.
British Journal of Political Science.
ISSN 0007-1234.
47(1),
p. 165–185.
doi:
10.1017/S0007123415000174.
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Political powersharing arrangements serve three purposes: to give all relevant groups access to the most important political decisions; to partition the policy process, thereby granting groups autonomy in their own homeland and on issues of special concern; and to constrain political power-holders from abusing their authority at the expense of any group. We introduce a new global dataset on a broad range of political powersharing institutions, 1975-2010. As posited theoretically, we show that political powersharing statistically disaggregate into three component types: inclusive, dispersive, and constraining institutions. Existing literature associates powersharing with democracy as well as with civil conflict resolution. We find differences between the types of political powersharing institutions correlated with electoral democracy and those prevalent in post-conflict states. Inclusive powersharing institutions are common in post-conflict states but least strongly associated with electoral democracy. Conversely, constraining institutions, which are comparatively rare in states with current or recent civil conflicts, are highly correlated with electoral democracy.
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Gates, Scott; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Shortland, Anja
(2016).
Winner of the 2016 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Paul Collier: Clarity and Compassion in the Study of Civil War.
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.
ISSN 1079-2457.
22(4),
p. 339–346.
doi:
10.1515/peps-2016-0030.
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Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard
(2016).
Development Consequences of Armed Conflict.
In Montclos, Marc-Antoine Pérouse de; Minor, Elizabeth & Sinha, Samrat (Ed.),
Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting for the Dead.
Springer.
ISSN 9783319120355.
p. 25–45.
doi:
10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.031.
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Gates, Scott; Graham, Ben; Lupu, Yonatan; Strand, Håvard & Strøm, Kaare
(2016).
Power sharing, protection, and peace.
Journal of Politics.
ISSN 0022-3816.
78(2),
p. 512–526.
doi:
10.1086/684366.
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Brehm, John & Gates, Scott
(2015).
Bureaucratic Politics Arising From, Not Defined by, a Principal–Agency Dyad.
Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (JPART).
ISSN 1053-1858.
25(1),
p. 27–42.
doi:
10.1093/jopart/muu045.
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We contrast two archetypal modes of research in principal-agency theory and in public administration: an aggregated mode which regards the agency as a unified whole, and a disaggregated mode attending to individuals. We argue for the virtues of the latter approach in that mechanisms are clear, verifiable, and specific. The aggregated approach may also be clear, at the cost of submerging internal conflicts while yielding powerful understandings of the cumulative performance of the agency. The challenge to those of us who advocate the individual, behavioral approach is to identify how to accumulate dyadic performance into larger structures of agency itself.
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Gates, Scott & Podder, Sukanya
(2015).
Social Media, Recruitment, Allegiance and the Islamic State.
Perspectives on Terrorism (PT).
9(4),
p. 107–115.
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Islamic State relies heavily on the recruitment of foreign fighters. We examine this recruitment from an organizational perspective. We analyze how the process of recruitment of foreigners shapes the adverse selection problem affecting the dissident groups that they join. We also examine the different mechanisms used to maintain the allegiance and compliance of foreigners as opposed to indigenous recruits. More broadly, we analyze how the recruitment of foreign fighters affects the organization. Foreign fighters and local recruits exhibit significant differences in recruitment patterns and motivations for joining IS. This could create problems for the organization. Evidence of such strife, however, is not discernible. Given the information at hand, IS appears to be effectively managing the mix of foreign and local recruits.
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Kim, Woosang & Gates, Scott
(2015).
Power transition theory and the rise of China.
International Area Studies Review.
ISSN 2233-8659.
18(3),
p. 219–226.
doi:
10.1177/2233865915598545.
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Does the rise of China inexorably anticipate the onset of global instability or even a great power war? Today, routine comparisons are made between a rising China with that of Germany over 100 years ago. Organski, in his original explication of power transition theory, however, was far more cautious. Despite predicting the remarkable rise of China nearly 60 years ago in his book (1958), World Politics, Organski was circumspect in predicting a great power war involving China and the United States. This article examines the development of power transition theory by a variety of scholars since Organski. We draw on these developments of power transition theory to analyze the implications of the rise of China.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Roy, Kaushik; Dahl, Marianne & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
(2015).
Continuity and Change in Asymmetric Warfare in Afghanistan: From the Mughals to the Americans.
In Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik (Ed.),
War and State-Building in Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives.
Bloomsbury Academic.
ISSN 9781472572172.
p. 21–42.
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The Mughals, British and Soviets all failed to subjugate Afghanistan, failures which offer valuable lessons for today. Taking a long historical perspective from 1520 to 2012, this volume examines the Mughal, British, Soviet and NATO efforts in Afghanistan, drawing on new archives and a synthesis of previous counter-insurgency experiences. Special emphasis is given to ecology, terrain and logistics to explain sub-conventional operations and state-building in Afghanistan.
War and State-Building in Modern Afghanistan provides an overall synthesis of British, Russian, American and NATO military activities in Afghanistan, which directly links past experiences to the current challenges. These timely essays are particularly relevant to contemporary debates about NATO's role in Afghanistan; do the war and state-building policies currently employed by NATO forces undercut or enhance a political solution?
The essays in this volume introduce new historical perspectives on this debate, and will prove illuminating reading for students and scholars interested in military history, the history of warfare, international relations and comparative politics.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik
(2015).
Armies, Warfare, and the State in Afghanistan from Pre-Modern Times to the Present Era.
In Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik (Ed.),
War and State-Building in Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives.
Bloomsbury Academic.
ISSN 9781472572172.
p. 1–20.
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The Mughals, British and Soviets all failed to subjugate Afghanistan, failures which offer valuable lessons for today. Taking a long historical perspective from 1520 to 2012, this volume examines the Mughal, British, Soviet and NATO efforts in Afghanistan, drawing on new archives and a synthesis of previous counter-insurgency experiences. Special emphasis is given to ecology, terrain and logistics to explain sub-conventional operations and state-building in Afghanistan.
War and State-Building in Modern Afghanistan provides an overall synthesis of British, Russian, American and NATO military activities in Afghanistan, which directly links past experiences to the current challenges. These timely essays are particularly relevant to contemporary debates about NATO's role in Afghanistan; do the war and state-building policies currently employed by NATO forces undercut or enhance a political solution?
The essays in this volume introduce new historical perspectives on this debate, and will prove illuminating reading for students and scholars interested in military history, the history of warfare, international relations and comparative politics.
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Binningsbø, Helga Malmin; Loyle, Cyanne E.; Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Elster, Jon
(2012).
Armed conflict and post-conflict justice, 1946-2006: A dataset.
Journal of Peace Research.
ISSN 0022-3433.
49(5),
p. 731–740.
doi:
10.1177/0022343312450886.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard
(2012).
Development Consequences of Armed Conflict.
World Development.
ISSN 0305-750X.
40(9),
p. 1713–1722.
doi:
10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.031.
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This paper conducts the first analysis of the effect of armed conflict on progress in meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. We also examine the effect of conflict on economic growth. Conflict has clear detrimental effects on the reduction of poverty and hunger, on primary education, on the reduction of child mortality, and on access to potable water. A medium-sized conflict with 2500 battle deaths is estimated to increase undernourishment an additional 3.3%, reduce life expectancy by about 1 year, increases infant mortality by 10%, and deprives an additional 1.8% of the population from access to potable water.
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Butler, Christopher K. & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2012).
African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights.
Journal of Peace Research.
ISSN 0022-3433.
49(1),
p. 23–34.
doi:
10.1177/0022343311426166.
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This article examines the effect of climate change on a type of armed conflict that pits pastoralists (cattle herders) against each other (range wars). Such conflicts are typically fought over water rights and/or grazing rights to unfenced/unowned land. The state is rarely involved directly. The rangeland of East Africa is a region particularly vulnerable to drought and livestock diseases associated with climate change. To analyze the possible effects of climate change on pastoral conflict, we focus our analysis on changes in resource availability, contrasting cases of abundance and scarcity. The role of resources is further contextualized by competing notions of property rights, and the role of the state in defining property and associated rights. We employ a contest success function (CSF) game-theoretic model to analyze the logic of range wars. This CSF approach emphasizes the low-level, non-binary nature of raiding behavior between pastoralist groups over limited natural resources. A central contribution of this approach is that the logic of raiding behavior implies a positive relationship between resources and conflict. This positive relationship is supported by several studies of the rangeland of East Africa, but is generally dismissed by the literature on the ‘resource curse’. This relationship is contingent on other factors examined in the model, producing the following results. First, the level of property rights protection provided by the state generally reduces conflict between pastoralist groups. Second, if property rights protection is provided in a biased manner, then conflict between pastoralist groups increases. Third, severe resource asymmetries between two pastoralist groups will induce the poorer group to become bandits (focusing their efforts on raiding and not producing), while the richer group raids in retaliation.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik
(2011).
Introduction.
In Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik (Ed.),
Unconventional warfare in South Asia, 1947 to the present.
Ashgate.
ISSN 9780754629771.
p. 9–30.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik
(2011).
Introduction.
In Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik (Ed.),
Conventional Warfare in South Asia, 1947 to the Present.
Ashgate.
ISSN 9780754629757.
p. 9–30.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik
(2011).
Introduction.
In Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik (Ed.),
The Nuclear Shadow over South Asia, 1947 to the Present.
Ashgate.
ISSN 9780754629764.
p. 9–28.
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Rustad, Siri Camilla Indreland Aas; Buhaug, Halvard; Falch, Åshild & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2011).
All Conflict is Local: Modeling Sub-National Variation in Civil Conflict Risk.
Conflict Management and Peace Science.
ISSN 0738-8942.
28(1),
p. 15–40.
doi:
10.1177/0738894210388122.
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Most quantitative assessments of civil conflict draw on annual country-level data to determine a baseline hazard of conflict onset. The first problem with such analyses is that they ignore factors associated with the precipitation of violence, such as elections and natural disasters and other trigger mechanisms. Given that baseline hazards are relatively static, most of the temporal variation in risk is associated with such precipitating factors. The second problem with most quantitative analyses of conflict is that they assume that civil conflicts are distributed uniformly throughout the country. This is rarely the case; most intrastate armed conflicts take place in the periphery of the country, well away from the capital and often along international borders. Analysts fail to disaggregate temporally as well as spatially. While other contributions to this issue focus on the temporal aspect of conflict, this article addresses the second issue: the spatial resolution of analysis. To adequately assess the baseline risk of armed conflict, this article develops a unified prediction model that combines a quantitative assessment of conflict risk at the country level with country-specific sub-national analyses at first-order administrative regions. Geo-referenced data on aspects of social, economic, and political exclusion, as well as endemic poverty and physical geography, are featured as the principal local indicators of latent conflict. Using Asia as a test case, this article demonstrates the unique contribution of applying a localized approach to conflict prediction that explicitly captures sub-national variation in civil conflict risk.
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Butler, Christopher & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2009).
Asymmetry, Parity, and (Civil) War: Can International Theories of Power Help Us Understand Civil War.
International Interactions.
ISSN 0305-0629.
35(3),
p. 330–340.
doi:
10.1080/03050620903084877.
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The concept of relative power is ubiquitous and long-held in understanding
conflict. As a ratio of the weaker side’s capabilities compared to the stronger
side’s capabilities, relative power ranges from extreme asymmetry (where
the weaker side has almost no capabilities) to parity (where the capabilities
of the two sides are equal). Power theories link relative power to international
outcomes, especially armed conflict. In this essay, we examine the
applicability of power theories to civil armed conflicts, involving a government
and a rebel group.
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Buhaug, Halvard; Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Lujala, Paivi
(2009).
Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict.
Journal of Conflict Resolution.
ISSN 0022-0027.
53(4),
p. 544–569.
doi:
10.1177/0022002709336457.
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Why do some armed civil conflicts last longer than others? Drawing on a contest success function model, we show that geographic factors (such as location, terrain, and natural resources) interact with rebel fighting capacity and together play a crucial role in determining the duration of conflict. Using precisely dated duration data in event history models and geographic data for the conflict location, we find that conflicts located at considerable distance from the main government stronghold, along remote international borders and in regions with valuable minerals last substantially longer. In addition, we find that rebel military capacity in its own right increases the prospects of a civil conflict ending within a short time period. Our findings imply that the distances an army must travel to project power, rebel fighting capacity, and characteristics of conflict region affect how a civil war is fought and who will prevail.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Strand, Håvard
(2008).
Military intervention, democratization, and post-conflict political stablity.
In Øberg, Magnus & Strøm, Kaare (Ed.),
Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict.
Routledge.
ISSN 9780415416719.
p. 147–162.
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Murshed, S. Mansoob & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2006).
Spatial-horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal.
In Kanbur, Ravi; Venables, Anthony J. & Wan, Guanghua (Ed.),
Spatial Disparities in Human Development: Perspectives from Asia.
United Nations University Press.
ISSN 9789280811223.
p. 188–206.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard
(2006).
Institutional inconsistency and political instability: Polity duration, 1800-2000.
American Journal of Political Science (AJPS).
ISSN 0092-5853.
50(4),
p. 893–908.
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Hegre, Håvard; Ellingsen, Tanja; Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Gleditsch, Nils Petter
(2005).
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace?
In Diehl, Paul F. (Eds.),
War.
Sage Publications.
ISSN 9781412903738.
p. 142–165.
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Murshed, S. Mansoob & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2005).
Spatial-Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal.
Review of Development Economics.
ISSN 1363-6669.
9(1),
p. 121–134.
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Fredriksson, Per G.; Neumayer, Eric; Damania, Richard & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2005).
Environmentalism, Democracy, and Pollution Control.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management.
ISSN 0095-0696.
49(2),
p. 343–365.
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Gates, Scott & Roy, Kaushik
(2018).
Limited War in South Asia: From Decolonization to Recent Times.
Routledge.
ISBN 9781409461999.
204 p.
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Studies of the post-1947 Indian and Pakistani armies can be divided roughly into two groups: literature generated by their military officers and work done by civilian historians (Indian, Pakistani, American and British). The military officers focus on operational details in a narrative chronological manner emphasizing the ‘blood and guts’ of the officers and the men they commanded. In modern parlance, the civilian academics condescendingly term such studies as ‘drum and buttons’ history. The military officers portray the military operations as if they had occurred in a socio-political vacuum. In contrast, civilian scholars, using methodologies derived from political science and sociology, emphasize the social and political aspects of the armed forces. But they completely forget that armed forces, as the nineteenth-century Prussian military philosopher cum historian Carl Philip Gottlieb von Clausewitz rightly noted, exist for conducting warfare. In fact, as Clausewitz notes, battles and campaigns are like gold and silver in commercial transactions. Since the 1980s, with the aid of organizational theory, academic analysis of military operations (emphasizing the roles of chance factors, the use of concepts like lessons learnt, etc.) have been in vogue in the Western world but not in the case of India and Pakistan. This monograph, co-written by a political scientist and a historian, attempts to fuse a socio-political analysis of the armed forces establishment with academic operational military history.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Roy, Kaushik
(2015).
War and State-Building in Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives.
Bloomsbury Academic.
ISBN 9781472572172.
320 p.
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The Mughals, British and Soviets all failed to subjugate Afghanistan, failures which offer valuable lessons for today. Taking a long historical perspective from 1520 to 2012, this volume examines the Mughal, British, Soviet and NATO efforts in Afghanistan, drawing on new archives and a synthesis of previous counter-insurgency experiences. Special emphasis is given to ecology, terrain and logistics to explain sub-conventional operations and state-building in Afghanistan.
War and State-Building in Modern Afghanistan provides an overall synthesis of British, Russian, American and NATO military activities in Afghanistan, which directly links past experiences to the current challenges. These timely essays are particularly relevant to contemporary debates about NATO's role in Afghanistan; do the war and state-building policies currently employed by NATO forces undercut or enhance a political solution?
The essays in this volume introduce new historical perspectives on this debate, and will prove illuminating reading for students and scholars interested in military history, the history of warfare, international relations and comparative politics.
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Dahl, Marianne; Rivera, Mauricio & Gates, Scott
(2023).
Beyond Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty.
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Dahl, Marianne; Gates, Scott & Rivera, Mauricio
(2023).
Beyond Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty.
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Dahl, Marianne; Rivera, Mauricio & Gates, Scott
(2023).
Beyond Defection: Dissent Campaign Strategies and Security Force Disloyalty.
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Dahl, Marianne; Rivera, Mauricio & Gates, Scott
(2022).
Unpacking Disloyalty: Dissent Strategies and Subversive Actions Among Security Forces.
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Thelen, Véronique; Gates, Scott & Bhatia, Kartika
(2019).
Winner of the 2019 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Jean-Paul Azam.
Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.
ISSN 1079-2457.
25(4),
p. 1–6.
doi:
10.1515/peps-2019-0041.
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Strand, Håvard; Dyvesether, Natalie M.; Gates, Scott & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
(2019).
The Effect of Armed Conflict on Sustainable Development Goals.
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Leon, Gabriel; Gates, Scott & Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede
(2019).
Maduro Has Nowhere to Go.
Political Violence @ A Glance: Expert Analysis on Violence and Its Alternatives.
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Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Strand, Håvard
(2019).
Patterns of authority over space and time.
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Holtermann, Helge & Gates, Scott
(2015).
Divided Regimes and Civil War Duration: Exploring the case of Nepal’s Maoist conflict.
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Buhaug, Halvard; Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik
(2009).
Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever.
European Political Science.
ISSN 1680-4333.
8(1),
p. 79–89.
doi:
10.1057/eps.2008.54.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Rustad, Siri Aas; Buhaug, Hallvard & Falck, Åshild
(2009).
'Subnational Variation in Civil Conflict Risk'.
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Lie, Tove Grete; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2007).
Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.
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Lie, Tove Grete; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2007).
Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.
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Lie, Tove Grete; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2007).
Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Aydin, Aysegul
(2006).
Rulers as Mass Murderers: Political Institutions and Human Insecurity.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Lie, Tove Grete & Binningsbø, Helga Malmin
(2006).
Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.
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Lie, Tove Grete; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Gates, Scott Geoffrey
(2006).
Postconflict Justice and Sustainable Peace.
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Binningsbø, Helga Malmin; Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Elster, Jon
(2005).
Civil War and Transitional Justice, 1946-2003: A Dataset.
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The purpose with this dataset is to provide an overview of how post-conflict societies
deal/have dealt with the wrongdoings of their recent pasts. Inspired by the literature on
transitions to democracy, the task has been to look more closely at transitions to peace. What
measures are taken in postconflict societies in order to preserve the fragile peace? The dataset
covers all extrasystemic, internationalized internal and internal armed conflicts from 1946-
2003, with at least 25 annual battle-related deaths as coded by the PRIO-Uppsala Armed
Conflict Database (Gleditsch, et al, 2002). A variable indicating how the conflicts were
terminated was constructed. The transitional justice efforts included are: trials, purges,
reparations to victims and truth commissions. In addition, two measures of abstaining from TJ
efforts, amnesties and exile, are registered.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Moses, Jonathon; Strand, Håvard; Jo, Jung-In & Vik, Jostein
(2004).
Mini-Skirts, Hula-Hoops and Exchange Rate Regimes: Information Cascades across Central Banks.
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Saxegaard, Sverke Runde; Gates, Scott & Kjeksrud, Stian
(2026).
Why Conflicts Recur.
Universitetet i Oslo.
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Civil conflicts have an unfortunate tendency to recur. 54 % of all conflicts since 1946 have been recurrences, and 66 % of all recurrences take place within 5 years of the original conflict termination. For a post-conflict government emerging from civil conflict, avoiding conflict recurrence is among the most critical priorities on the road to future peace and prosperity. Understanding and preventing the recurrence of conflict is an essential endeavor for both post-conflict regimes and their international advisors.
The overarching question of how and why conflicts recur is at the core of this dissertation. Over the last decades, this question has received a substantial amount of scholarly attention. Consequently, a considerable body of scientific literature has been produced, which codifies the conventional wisdom of the field. In this dissertation, I make three critical but constructive interventions into this scientific literature.
In the first article, I reassess the relationship between constitutional arrangements and conflict recurrence. Recent work suggests that constitutional arrangements that constrain executive power limit the risk of conflict recurrence by acting as implicit promises of rights protection. I argue that these promises may no longer be credible at very high levels of formal executive constraints, as excessive promises are often seen as 'too good to be true'. The argument is supported by quantitative evidence from post-conflict regimes (1975-2019) and illustrated through a brief case study of the eastern DR Congo. In short, the article reassesses the functional form of an established empirical relationship.
In the second article, I make the case for a disaggregated conceptualization of political inclusion. Rather than viewing political inclusion as a one-dimensional concept, I disaggregate it into its three levels: elites, organizations, and social groups. My main argument is that the conflict literature has failed to distinguish between these types of societal actors. I further illustrate the advantages of such a disaggregated conceptualization --- and the pitfalls of a one-dimensional conceptualization --- through a quantitative analysis of post-conflict episodes (1975-2016) and a brief case study of Liberia.
In the third article, I rethink the relationship between peacekeeping and conflict recurrence. The literature has identified a robust empirical relationship between peacekeepers and a reduced risk of conflict recurrence. However, exactly how this effect comes about is unclear. I review the proposed theoretical mechanisms in the literature and build a formal model as a synthesis of existing explanations. The result is a model of how peacekeepers reduce the risk of conflict recurrence that illuminates the underlying logic of existing theories and uncovers internal contradictions.
Independently, these articles represent empirical and theoretical interventions into existing scholarly debates. As a whole, they constitute a research project on the causes of conflict recurrence that examines specific mechanisms and types of actors separately within a coherent framework. In sum, the thesis constitutes a piece of cumulative and progressive political science that brings the study of conflict recurrence a modest but important step further.
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Azba, Natalie; Gates, Scott & Olsson, Louise
(2021).
The Illusion of Inclusion: Assessing the Effects and Gendered Implications of Power Sharing.
Universitetet i Oslo.
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In parallel with the rise of the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) agenda after the adoption of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 in 2000, consociational power sharing has emerged as the model of choice for post-conflict governance within the international peacebuilding community. Although both WPS and power sharing have inclusion at their core, however, the literature on power sharing has thus far exclusively focused on the connection between power sharing and democracy, and power sharing’s ability to ensure ethnic minority representation in decision-making processes, with no clear attention given to gender. Similarly, feminist political theory and WPS-related research have not explored the role of power-sharing in-depth. While previous research has not examined the potential effects of political inclusive power sharing, this thesis thereby addresses a central knowledge gap on the potentially illusory connection between political inclusive power sharing in postconflict settings and the actual effects on women’s representation, participation, and empowerment. By reviewing and drawing on both works of literature, this thesis examines the gendered implications of power sharing, and highlights how existing power sharing models are not able to fully accommodate other differences that ethno-national identities, and that such models, therefore, might not promote gender equality through women’s empowerment. This study sits at the intersection of political institutions, power sharing, feminist literature, as well as post-conflict state-building. The analysis builds on two opposing assumptions regarding the implementation of power sharing and how these institutions affect women’s inclusions and empowerment. Consequently, this thesis offers a linear country-year fixed effects research design that analyzes the cause-and-effect relationships between inclusive power sharing, female inclusion, and women’s empowerment in all global states between 1975-2010. Despite the lack of sufficient attention given to gender in power sharing frameworks, such institutions remain a tool for promoting women’s formal political representation in post-conflict societies. The statistical results demonstrate that the first measurement of female inclusion, namely the proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, is positive and statistically significant and thereby affected by inclusive power sharing arrangements. However, the other models find no statistical support that the implementation of inclusive power sharing increases women’s empowerment in civil society.
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Tandberg, Charlotte; Gates, Scott & Soysa, Indra de
(2021).
The Same, Only Different: Revisiting State Capacity’s Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Study of Intrastate Armed Conflict.
University of Oslo.
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Hillesund, Solveig; Gates, Scott & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
(2019).
Choosing Targets and Tactics: How Horizontal Inequality Spurs Conflict.
Universitetet i Oslo.
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Ethnic wars constitute more than half the civil wars in the post war period. Ethnic and cultural differences between people do not cause conflict per se, but the risk of war increases when they coincide with socioeconomic and political inequalities; that is, when horizontal (inter-group) inequalities are rife. Yet, the mechanisms that link horizontal inequalities to conflict remain underexplored. My main claim in this dissertation is that different combinations of economic and political relative group deprivation have different implications for conflict. Because different constellations of deprivation come with different opportunities to succeed with alternative conflict strategies, they influence the choices group leaders make between targets and tactics; and thus what form of conflict is most likely to break out. Group disadvantages affect individual choices of tactics as well; in part through group leader decisions, but also more directly. To investigate group leader choices, I analyze the onset of civil and communal conflict among politically relevant groups in Africa, and the onset of violent and nonviolent conflict among socially relevant groups around the world. Economic disadvantages alone primarily increase the risk of communal violence; political disadvantages alone increase the risk of nonviolent conflict targeting the government; and combined disadvantages increase the risk of violence against the government. This is due to differences in opportunity structure: different constellations of deprivation come with differences in elite incentives, economic leverage, the ability to blame the government, and the ability to achieve redistribution without government involvement; all of which affect the viability of the different forms of conflict. To investigate the link between group and individual level dynamics, I introduce survey data from the West Bank and Gaza, and twenty-five African countries. I show that economic group disadvantages increase the risk that individual group members prefer violent over nonviolent tactics, especially if their group is politically excluded. The relationship is not driven solely by the individuals within the groups that have the lowest individual opportunity cost. This dissertation contributes to the conflict literature by: (i) studying alternative forms of conflict together; by (ii) accounting for how different constellations of deprivation come with different opportunity structures, which facilitate alternative forms of conflict; by (iii) introducing data on individuals to bridge the group and individual levels of analysis; by (iv) extending the analysis of horizontal inequality beyond politically relevant ethnic groups, to ease concerns about selection bias; and by (v) accounting for a potentially important confounder: peripheral group location.
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Gates, Scott & Saxegaard, Sverke
(2019).
The War That Wasn’t: Explaining Relative Peacefulness.
Universitetet i Oslo.
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Since the end of the Second World War, civil war has been the most frequent and deadly form of armed conflict. This has resulted in an abundance of explanations of the occurrence of civil war. Nevertheless, a complete explanation of any phenomenon must be able to explain the absence as well as the occurrence of said phenomenon. The time has come to turn to the non-events, the dogs that do not bark; the countries where we should expect to see civil war, but where no civil war occurred. One such country is Tanzania. Within Tanzania’s postindependence history, the semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar, and the 1990-2010 period stand out as particularly conflict-prone. Therefore, the research question is: Why was there no civil war in Zanzibar in the period 1990 – 2010? To answer this question, I combine various theories of the causes of civil war into a comprehensive and systematic theoretical framework, which incorporates both structural and process-based theories of civil war onset. The resulting theoretical framework holds that governments and their domestic opposition produce their own civil wars, but not at their own accord; they produce them under certain structural conditions, given and transmitted from the past. This theoretical framework is developed in the theory chapter and operationalized in the methods chapter. I apply this theoretical framework to Zanzibar in the 1990-2010 period, and argue that Zanzibar avoided civil war in this period for three reasons. First, in years preceding elections, escalation to civil war was prevented because of a belief held by the opposition that the next election would lead to substantial political change. Second, regardless of the level of objective opportunity, lack of perceived opportunity has prevented the opposition from initiating a civil war. And third, the leadership of the opposition has acted in a risk-averse manner at key moments. In total, the empirical case study explains the puzzle of Zanzibar’s relative peacefulness and illustrates the advantages of theory synthesis and methodological pluralism in the analysis of civil war risk in specific cases.
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Gates, Scott; Dahl, Marianne & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv
(2016).
Standing Idly by during the Revolution: How the Security Forces Critically Affect the Success or Failure of Non-Violent Campaigns.
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
ISSN 9788272887154.
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Violent uprisings last about two and a half times as long as non-violent campaigns on average. Brutal repression of a non-violent campaign can end the conflict quickly. Widespread defection among the security forces also leads to a relatively quick end to a non-violent campaign. If the security forces defect, the chances of success for a non-violent campaign increase substantially. Defection can take the form of desertion or shirking (standing idly by) and not following orders to repress. Non-violent tactics are much more likely to lead to defection than violent tactics.
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Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard
(2014).
Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict.
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
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The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that conflict has been an important impediment to achieving these goals.
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Dahl, Marianne; Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard
(2014).
Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings.
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
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The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security fo rces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. How the security forces react is intimately linked to the tactics employed by civil society.
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Published
Oct. 24, 2016 10:39 AM
- Last modified
May 10, 2021 5:44 PM
