Nico Keilman

Professor emeritus - Økonomisk institutt
Bilde av Nico  Keilman
English version of this page
Telefon +47 22855128
Rom 1021
Treffetider etter avtale
Brukernavn
Besøksadresse Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus 0851Oslo
Postadresse Postboks 1095 Blindern 0317Oslo

Faglige interesser

Befolkningsframskrivninger, modellering av ekteskap og husholdningsdynamikk, matematisk demografi.

Undervisning

Bakgrunn og karriere

M.Sc. i Anvendt Matematikk, Delft University of Technology, Nederland, 1977. Dr grad i Demografi, University of Utrecht, Nederland, 1990.

Forsker, Avdeling for befolkningsstatistikk, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981); forsker, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990); seniorforsker, SSB (1990-1998).

Verv

  •  Redaktør 2006-2011, Demographic Research
  •  Medlem av editorial board European Studies of Population
  •  Medlem av International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
  •  Medlem av Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, Den Haag, 2004-2015
Emneord: Demografi, Samfunnsøkonomi, Inntekt arbeid og velferd

Publikasjoner

Peer reviewed journals

 

Working papers

Books

  • Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman (eds.) Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature Switzerland 2019, 342 pp. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7
  • N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp. http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-nb_digibok_2010052503035
  • J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
  • E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991, 239 pp.
  • N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
  •  N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.

 

  • Divino, Fabio; Belay, Denekew Bitew; Keilman, Nico & Frigessi, Arnoldo (2021). Spatial modelling of Lexis mortality data. Spatial Statistics. ISSN 2211-6753. 44. doi: 10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100532.
  • Kastrati, Avni & Keilman, Nico (2021). Culture, tradition, and the registration of deaths: The case of Kosovo. Statistical Journal of the IAOS. ISSN 1874-7655. 37(4), s. 1125–1137. doi: 10.3233/SJI-210840.
  • Keilman, Nico (2020). Évaluer les prévisions probabilistes de population. Economie et Statistique. ISSN 0336-1454. 520-521, s. 51–68.
  • Keilman, Nico & Kristoffersen, Sigve (2020). European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? I Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (Red.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-42471-8. s. 179–192. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_9. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2020). Evaluating probabilistic population forecasts. Economie et Statistique. ISSN 0336-1454. 520-521, s. 49–64. doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2033. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2020). Uncertainty in population forecasts for the twenty-first century. Annual Review of Resource Economics. ISSN 1941-1340. 12, s. 449–470. doi: 10.1146/annurev-resource-110319-114841.
  • Keilman, Nico (2019). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 41(40), s. 1147–1196. doi: 10.4054/DEMRES.2019.41.40. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2019). Erroneous population forecasts. I Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (Red.), Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-05074-0. s. 95–111. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2019). Family projection methods: A review. I Schoen, Robert (Red.), Analytical Family Demography. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-319-93227-9. s. 277–301. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9_12. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Borgan, Ørnulf & Keilman, Nico (2019). Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia? European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 35(1), s. 87–99. doi: 10.1007/s10680-018-9468-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Linder, Dennis; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Piaserico, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2017). Simulating the life course of psoriasis patients: the interplay between therapy intervention and marital status. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology. ISSN 0926-9959. 32(1), s. 62–67. doi: 10.1111/jdv.14567. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041. Journal of Population Research. ISSN 1443-2447. 34(1), s. 17–43. doi: 10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070. 32(3), s. 726–735. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.007.
  • Keilman, Nico; Tymicki, Krzysztof & Skirbekk, Vegard (2014). Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women. International Journal of Population Research. ISSN 2090-4029. doi: 10.1155/2014/908385. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad; Forster, Jonathan; Keilman, Nico & Raymer, James [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2013). Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe. Journal of Official Statistics. ISSN 0282-423X. 29(4), s. 583–607. doi: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041.
  • Keilman, Nico & Keller, Lisa Dahl (2013). Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen? Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. s. 28–38.
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data - the case of Denmark and Finland. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 28, s. 1263–1302. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.43.
  • Cohen, Joel; Kravdal, Øystein & Keilman, Nico (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. ISSN 0027-8424. 108(29), s. 11830–11835. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107993108.
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On age structures and mortality. I Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Ogawa, Naohiro & Gauthier, Anne (Red.), Ageing in Advanced Industrial States. Springer. ISSN 978-90-481-3552-3. s. 23–46.
  • Alho, Juha & Keilman, Nico (2010). On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). ISSN 0964-1998. 173, s. 117–143.
  • Keilman, Nico & Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad (2010). Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 26(1), s. 47–72. doi: 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9.
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2008). Changing views of future demographic trends. I Alho, Juha; Hougaard Jensen, Svend & Lassila, Jukka (Red.), Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 978-0-521-87740-4. s. 11–33.
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2008). Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty. I Alho, Juha; Hougaard Jensen, Svend & Lassila, Jukka (Red.), Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 978-0-521-87740-4. s. 34–54.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Erroneous population forecasts. I Festy, Patrick & Sardon, Jean-Paul (Red.), Hommage à Gérard Calot - Profession: démographe. Institut national d'études démographiques. ISSN 978-2-7332-4023-6. s. 237–254.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 34(1), s. 137–153.
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2007). Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 23, s. 33–69. doi: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4.
  • Keilman, Nico (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? Population Trends. ISSN 0307-4463. s. 20–30.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back. I Wunsch, Guillaume; Caselli, Graziella & Vallin, Jacques (Red.), Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, A Treatise in Population Studies Volume 1. Elsevier. ISSN 978-0-12-765660-1. s. 213–223.
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe ECE12. ISSN 0167-8000. 23(1), s. 1–10.

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  • Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2020). Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISBN 978-3-030-42471-8. 261 s.
  • Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (2019). Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISBN 978-3-030-05074-0. 350 s.

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  • Keilman, Nico (2021). Trends in population health and demography. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 398(10300). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736%2821%2901113-2.
  • Keilman, Nico (2021). New population forecasts predict too few births in sub-Saharan countries. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 398.
  • Keilman, Nico & Mazzuco, Stefano (2020). Introduction. I Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (Red.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-42471-8. s. 1–20. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico (2020). A probabilistic forecast for the population of Norway, Norway’s 2020 population projections: National level results, methods and assumptions. Statistics Norway. ISSN 978-82-587-1149-7. s. 177–182.
  • Keilman, Nico (2020). Modelling education and climate change. Nature Sustainability. ISSN 2398-9629. s. 497–498. doi: 10.1038/s41893-020-0515-8.
  • Feeney, Griffith; Keilman, Nico; Schmertmann, Carl & Bijak, Jakub (2019). Editorial: The past, present, and future of demographic research. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 41, s. 1197–1204. doi: 10.4054/DEMRES.2019.41.41.
  • Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (2019). Preface. Demographic Research Monographs. ISSN 1613-5520. s. vii–viii.
  • Keilman, Nico (2019). Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2019). Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts.
  • Bengtsson, Tommy; Keilman, Nico; Alho, Juha; Christensen, Kaare; Palmer, Edward & Vaupel, James W. (2019). Introduction. I Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (Red.), Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-05074-0. s. 1–19.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Training Course on Demographic Analysis and Population Projections, Pristina, Kosovo, 4-7 December 2018 .
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Forventet levealder og komprimering av dødelighet: perioder og kohorter.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Increasing (but insufficient?) optimism about future life expectancy. N-IUSSP.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Økende optimisme om forventet levealder. Forskning.no. ISSN 1891-635X.
  • Syse, Astri; Pham, Quang Dinh & Keilman, Nico (2018). Dødelighet og levealder. I Leknes, Stefan; Løkken, Sturla Andreas Kise; Syse, Astri & Tønnessen, Marianne (Red.), Befolkningsframskrivingene 2018: Modeller, forutsetninger og resultater. Statistics Norway. ISSN 978-82-537-9767-0. s. 57–86.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Psoriasispasientenes livsløp - påvirker behandling deres parforhold? . BestPractice Dermatologi. 9(28), s. 18–19.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Morgendagens eldre: større sjanse for å bo med partner og mindre sjanse for å bo alene.
  • Keilman, Nico (2017). Population Projection in Kosovo, 2017-2061: Methodology and key findings.
  • Keilman, Nico; Pham, Quang Dinh & Syse, Astri (2017). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in Norway 1900-2100: periods and cohorts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2017). Period and cohort life expectancy, mortality compression, and age at death distribution.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). A two-sex model for first marriage.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Barnefamilier, fruktbarhetsnivå og samfunnsplanlegging .
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Befolkning: Statistisk sentralbyrå bør endre praksis og publisere sannsynlighetsprognoser. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. s. 59–66.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model .
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Tar SSB høyde for den usikre demografiske utviklingen i framtiden? .
  • Bernhoft, Aksel; Albihn, Ann; Hessen, Dag Olav; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Keilman, Nico & Børresen, Trond [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2016). Hvordan skal vi sikre et landbruk som kan fø oss i framtiden?
  • Bijak, Jakub; Alberts, Isabel; Alho, Juha; Bryant, John; Buettner, Thomas & Falkingham, Jane [Vis alle 16 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2015). Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic Population Forecasts for Informed Decision Making. Journal of Official Statistics. ISSN 0282-423X. 31(4), s. 537–544. doi: 10.1515/JOS-2015-0033.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Jordens befolkning, "antall munner å mette".
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Dimension reduction by Brass' Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Probabilistic population and household forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments?
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Pensjonsreformen kan bli mye dyrere enn mange tror.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On future households.
  • Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts. Interdisciplinary Communications. ISSN 0809-8735.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View. ISSN 1781-6858. 7, s. 333–340. doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internett]. http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224469.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internett]. http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224278.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Scenarios of demographic change: the role of probabilistic approaches in population projection.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Emerging family and household types in Europe: Issues, definitions and classifications.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna. Välfärd. ISSN 1651-6710. s. 6–7.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years.
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
  • Keilman, Nico & Aristotelous, Georgios (2021). Expert opinion on migration data. QuantMig Deliverable D6.1. ingen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Keilman, Nico; Pham, Quang Dinh & Syse, Astri (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression: The case of Norway, 1900-2060. Statistics Norway. ISSN 1892-753X.
  • Kastrati, Avni; Uka, Sanije; Sojeva, Arijeta & Keilman, Nico (2017). Kosovo Population Projection 2017-2061. Kosovo Agency of Statistics. ISSN 978-9951-22-420-8.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Fødsler og fruktbarhet i Norge. Akademika AS.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe. ingen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan & Smith, Peter [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge. NORFACE.
  • Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study. Økonomisk institutt. ISSN 0809-8786. 2010(22).

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Publisert 23. sep. 2010 10:31 - Sist endret 2. jan. 2022 12:11

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