Nico Keilman

Professor
Bilde av Nico  Keilman
English version of this page
Telefon +47 22855128
Rom 1021
Treffetider etter avtale
Brukernavn
Besøksadresse Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus 0851Oslo
Postadresse Postboks 1095 Blindern 0317Oslo

Faglige interesser

Befolkningsframskrivninger, modellering av ekteskap og husholdningsdynamikk, matematisk demografi.

Undervisning

Bakgrunn og karriere

M.Sc. i Anvendt Matematikk, Delft University of Technology, Nederland, 1977. Dr grad i Demografi, University of Utrecht, Nederland, 1990.

Forsker, Avdeling for befolkningsstatistikk, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981); forsker, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990); seniorforsker, SSB (1990-1998).

Verv

  •  Redaktør 2006-2011, Demographic Research
  •  Medlem av editorial board European Studies of Population
  •  Medlem av International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
  •  Medlem av Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, Den Haag, 2004-2015
Emneord: Demografi, Samfunnsøkonomi, Inntekt arbeid og velferd

Publikasjoner

Peer reviewed journals

 

Working papers

Books

  • N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp. http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-nb_digibok_2010052503035
  • J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
  • E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991, 239 pp.
  • N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
  •  N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.

 

  • Borgan, Ørnulf & Keilman, Nico (2018). Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia?. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  s 1- 13 . doi: 10.1007/s10680-018-9468-2 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Family projection methods: A review, In Robert Schoen (ed.),  Analytical Family Demography.  Springer Nature.  ISBN 978-3-319-93227-9.  12.  s 277 - 301
  • Linder, Dennis; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Piaserico, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2017). Simulating the life course of psoriasis patients: the interplay between therapy intervention and marital status. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.  ISSN 0926-9959.  32(1), s 62- 67 . doi: 10.1111/jdv.14567 Fulltekst i vitenarkiv. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041. Journal of Population Research.  ISSN 1443-2447.  34(1), s 17- 43 . doi: 10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns. International Journal of Forecasting.  ISSN 0169-2070.  32(3), s 726- 735 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.007 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico; Tymicki, Krzysztof & Skirbekk, Vegard (2014). Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women. International Journal of Population Research.  ISSN 2090-4029. . doi: 10.1155/2014/908385 Fulltekst i vitenarkiv. Vis sammendrag
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data - the case of Denmark and Finland. Demographic Research.  ISSN 1435-9871.  28, s 1263- 1302 . doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.43 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico & Keller, Lisa Dahl (2013). Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen?. Samfunnsøkonomen.  ISSN 1890-5250.  (6), s 28- 38
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad; Forster, Jonathan; Keilman, Nico; Raymer, James & Smith, Peter (2013). Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe. Journal of Official Statistics.  ISSN 0282-423X.  29(4), s 583- 607 . doi: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041
  • Cohen, Joel; Kravdal, Øystein & Keilman, Nico (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.  ISSN 0027-8424.  108(29), s 11830- 11835 . doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107993108
  • Alho, Juha & Keilman, Nico (2010). On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).  ISSN 0964-1998.  173, s 117- 143 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On age structures and mortality, In Shripad Tuljapurkar; Naohiro Ogawa & Anne Gauthier (ed.),  Ageing in Advanced Industrial States.  Springer.  ISBN 978-90-481-3552-3.  kap 2.  s 23 - 46
  • Keilman, Nico & Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad (2010). Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  26(1), s 47- 72 . doi: 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9 Vis sammendrag
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2008). Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty, In Juha Alho; Svend Hougaard Jensen & Jukka Lassila (ed.),  Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability.  Cambridge University Press.  ISBN 978-0-521-87740-4.  kap. 3.  s 34 - 54
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Erroneous population forecasts, I: Patrick Festy & Jean-Paul Sardon (red.),  Hommage à Gérard Calot - Profession: démographe.  Institut national d'études démographiques.  ISBN 978-2-7332-4023-6.  -.  s 237 - 254
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. Population and Development Review.  ISSN 0098-7921.  34(1), s 137- 153 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2008). Changing views of future demographic trends, In Juha Alho; Svend Hougaard Jensen & Jukka Lassila (ed.),  Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability.  Cambridge University Press.  ISBN 978-0-521-87740-4.  kap. 2.  s 11 - 33
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2007). Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  23, s 33- 69 . doi: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries?. Population Trends.  ISSN 0307-4463.  (129), s 20- 30 Vis sammendrag
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe ECE12.  ISSN 0167-8000.  23(1), s 1- 10 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back, In Guillaume Wunsch; Graziella Caselli & Jacques Vallin (ed.),  Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, A Treatise in Population Studies Volume 1.  Elsevier.  ISBN 978-0-12-765660-1.  Chapter 17.  s 213 - 223
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Households and families, In Guillaume Wunsch; Graziella Caselli & Jacques Vallin (ed.),  Demography: Analysis and Synthesis.  Academic Press.  ISBN 0-12-765664-2.  Ch. 91 in Vol. 3.  s 457 - 476 Vis sammendrag
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Befolkningsnedgang i EØS-området utsatt. SSB-Magasinet. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2005). Erroneous population forecasts, In Nico Keilman (ed.),  Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models.  Swedish Social Insurance Agency.  ISBN 91-7500-326-0.  kap. 1.  s 7 - 26 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2005). The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Liabilities for Public Old Age Pensions in Norway. New Zealand Population Review.  ISSN 0111-199X.  31(1), s 35- 50 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Hvor lenge kommer vi til å leve? Levealder og aldersmønster for dødeligheten i Norge, 1900–2060. Økonomiske analyser.  ISSN 0800-4110.  (6), s 43- 49 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Démographie des ménages et de la famille: Application aux pays développés, I: Graziella Caselli; Jacques Vallin & Guillaume Wunsch (red.),  Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Volume VI: Population et société.  Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques.  ISBN 27332-2016-0.  Chapitre 91.  s 345 - 388
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Quang Pham, Dinh (2004). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. International Statistical Review.  ISSN 0306-7734.  72, s 5- 18 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Biodiversity: The threat of small households. Nature.  ISSN 0028-0836.  421, s 489- 490 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Pensjonskommisjonen bør ta usikkerhet i befolkningsutviklingen alvorlig. Økonomiske analyser.  ISSN 0800-4110.  (2), s 16- 24 Vis sammendrag

Se alle arbeider i Cristin

  • Keilman, Nico (ed.) (2005). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models. Swedish Social Insurance Agency.  ISBN 91-7500-326-0.  79 s. Vis sammendrag
  • Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico Willem (ed.) (2003). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Social Insurance Board.  ISBN 91-89303-24-5.  97 s. Vis sammendrag

Se alle arbeider i Cristin

  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Eldrebølgen avlyst? Bedre termometer, men pasienten er fortsatt syk. Forskning.no.  ISSN 1891-635X.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Forventet levealder og komprimering av dødelighet: perioder og kohorter. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Increasing (but insufficient?) optimism about future life expectancy. N-IUSSP. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Morgendagens eldre: større sjanse for å bo med partner og mindre sjanse for å bo alene.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables.
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Psoriasispasientenes livsløp - påvirker behandling deres parforhold?. BestPractice Dermatologi.  9(28), s 18- 19 . doi: https://www.epaper.dk/bpnoderma/derma/derma-28-no_feb_2018/?offline=1 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2018). Økende optimisme om forventet levealder. Forskning.no.  ISSN 1891-635X. . doi: https://forskning.no/aldring-statistikk-helse/okende-optimisme-om-forventet-levealder/1213385
  • Keilman, Nico; Pham, Dinh Quang & Syse, Astri (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression: The case of Norway, 1900-2060. Discussion papers. 884. Vis sammendrag
  • Syse, Astri; Pham, Dinh Quang & Keilman, Nico (2018). Dødelighet og levealder, I: Stefan Leknes; Sturla Andreas Kise Løkken; Astri Syse & Marianne Tønnessen (red.),  Befolkningsframskrivingene 2018: Modeller, forutsetninger og resultater.  Statistics Norway.  ISBN 978-82-537-9767-0.  Chapter 5.  s 57 - 86
  • Kastrati, Avni; Uka, Sanije; Sojeva, Arijeta & Keilman, Nico (2017). Kosovo Population Projection 2017-2061.
  • Keilman, Nico (2017). Period and cohort life expectancy, mortality compression, and age at death distribution. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2017). Population Projection in Kosovo, 2017-2061: Methodology and key findings.
  • Keilman, Nico; Pham, Dinh Quang & Syse, Astri (2017). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in Norway 1900-2100: periods and cohorts. Vis sammendrag
  • Bernhoft, Aksel; Albihn, Ann; Hessen, Dag Olav; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Keilman, Nico; Børresen, Trond; Haug, Ruth; Nicolaysen, Anna Marie & Andersen, Regine (2016). Hvordan skal vi sikre et landbruk som kan fø oss i framtiden?. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). A two-sex model for first marriage.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Barnefamilier, fruktbarhetsnivå og samfunnsplanlegging.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Befolkning: Statistisk sentralbyrå bør endre praksis og publisere sannsynlighetsprognoser. Samfunnsøkonomen.  ISSN 1890-5250.  (3), s 59- 66 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Fødsler og fruktbarhet i Norge. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Tar SSB høyde for den usikre demografiske utviklingen i framtiden?.
  • Bijak, Jakub; Alberts, Isabel; Alho, Juha; Bryant, John; Buettner, Thomas; Falkingham, Jane; Forster, Jonathan; Gerland, Patrick; King, Thomas; Onorante, Luca; Keilman, Nico; O'Hagan, Anthony; Owens, Darragh; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševcikova, Hana & Smith, Peter (2015). Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic Population Forecasts for Informed Decision Making. Journal of Official Statistics.  ISSN 0282-423X.  31(4), s 537- 544 . doi: 10.1515/JOS-2015-0033 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Dimension reduction by Brass' Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Jordens befolkning, "antall munner å mette".
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for five countries in Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments?. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Probabilistic population and household forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Pensjonsreformen kan bli mye dyrere enn mange tror. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter & Raymer, James (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge.
  • Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study. Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo. 22. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On future households. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View.  ISSN 1781-6858.  7, s 333- 340 . doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Emerging family and household types in Europe: Issues, definitions and classifications. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Scenarios of demographic change: the role of probabilistic approaches in population projection. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts. Interdisciplinary Communications.  ISSN 0809-8735.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224469.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224278.
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna. Välfärd.  ISSN 1651-6710.  (3), s 6- 7 Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2005). Assumptions for national stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. Vis sammendrag
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Magazine. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico (2004). Long term public old age pension obligations in a stochastic demographic setting in Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Conséquences démographiques et sociales d'une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Q. (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico & Kinsella, Kevin (2004). Families and households in the 2000 round of censuses in ECE member countries.
  • Keilman, Nico & Vogt, Yngve (2004). Utrygg pensjonsreform: Samfunnet kan tape skyhøye beløp. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).  ISSN 0804-3116. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe. Vis sammendrag
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Do Cause of Death analyses improve the accuracy of mortality forecasts?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Model based errors and empirical errors in fertility and mortality forecasts for the Nordic countries.

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Publisert 23. sep. 2010 10:31 - Sist endret 24. sep. 2018 22:20

Prosjekter

  • Levealder: periode og kohort