Nico Keilman
Professor Emeritus
-
Department of Economics

Norwegian version of this page
Phone
+47 22855128
Room
1021
Username
Visiting address
Eilert Sundt building
Moltke Moes vei 31
NO-0851 Oslo
Norway
Postal address
Department of Economics
University of Oslo
P.O. Box 1095 Blindern
NO-0317 Oslo
Norway
Academic Interests
Population forecasting, modelling marriage and household dynamics, mathematical demography.
Courses taught
- ECON1710 - Demografi - grunnemne
- ECON1730 - Befolkning og velferd
- ECON3710/4710 - Demography of developing countries
- ECON3720/4720 - Demografi, videregående I-land
- ECON2130 - Statistikk 1
- ECON4130 - Statistics 2
- ECON3150/4150 - Introductory Econometrics
Background
- M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, 1977
- Ph.D. in demography, University of Utrecht, the Netherlands, 1990
- Research officer, Department of Population Statistics, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981)
- Research associate, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990)
- Senior research associate, Statistics Norway (1990-1998).
Positions held
- Editor 2006-2011, Demographic Research
- Member, editorial board European Studies of Population
- Member, International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
- Member 2005-2015, Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, The Hague
Profile at Researchgate
Publications
Citations at Google Scholar
Papers in peer reviewed journals
- Keilman, Nico (2020) Evaluating probabilistic population forecasts. Economie et Statistique. ISSN 0336-1454. 520-521, s 49- 64. https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2033
- Keilman, Nico (2020) Modelling education and climate change. Nature Sustainability April 2020. ISSN 2398-9629. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0515-8
- Keilman, Nico (2019) Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables. Demographic Research 41(40), 1147-1196
- Borgan, Ørnulf & Keilman, Nico (2018). Do Japanese and Italian women live longer than women in Scandinavia?. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. . doi: 10.1007/s10680-018-9468-2
- Linder, Dennis; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Piaserico, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2017). Simulating the life course of psoriasis patients: the interplay between therapy intervention and marital status. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology.
- Keilman, Nico (2016). A combined Brass-Random Walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041. Journal of Population Research () 1-27.
- Keilman, Nico (2016). Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns. International Journal of Forecasting 32(3) 726-735.
- Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women (first author, with Krzysztof Tymicki and Vegard Skirbekk). International Journal of Population Research 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/908385. [pdf]
- Utilising expert opinion to improve the measurement of international migration in Europe (fifth author, with Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Jakub Bijak, Solveig Christiansen, Jonathan Forster, James Raymer, Peter Smith). Journal of Official Statistics 29(4)2013, 583-607, http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jos-2013-0041 [pdf]
- Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen? ("How robust is the new public pension system for life expectancy development?") (first author, with Lisa Keller). Samfunnsøkonomen 09/2013 [doc]
- Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: The case of Denmark and Finland (second author, with Solveig Christiansen). Demographic Research 06/2013; 28:1263. [pdf]
- Cohen, Joel; Kravdal, Øystein & Keilman, Nico (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America. ISSN 0027-8424. 108(29), s 11830- 11835 . doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107993108
- Juha Alho and Nico Keilman, On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 173(1)2010, 117-143
- Nico Keilman and Solveig Christiansen, Norwegian elderly less likely to live alone in the future. European Journal of Population, DOI 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9
- Nico Keilman, Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates, European View 2008
- Nico Keilman, European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years, Population and Development Review, 2008, 34(1)
- Maarten Alders, Nico Keilman and Harri Cruijsen, Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries, European Journal of Population, 2007, 23:33-69
- Juha Alho, Maarten Alders, Harri Cruijsen, Nico Keilman, Timo Nikander and Dinh Quang Pham, New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe, Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE12, 2006, 23:1-10
- Nico Keilman, The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Liabilities for Public Old Age Pensions in Norway, New Zealand Population Review 31(1), 2005, 35-50
- Juha Alho, Maarten Alders, Harri Cruijsen, Nico Keilman, Timo Nikander and Dinh Quang Pham, Population decline postponed in Europe, Statistical Magazine, 2005
- Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham, Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries, International Statistical Review 72(1), 2004, 5-18, summary
- Nico Keilman, Biodiversity: The threat of small households, Nature 421, 30 January 2003, 489-490
- Nico Keilman, Dinh Quang Pham and Arve Hetland, Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway, Demographic Research 6-15 May 2002, 409-454
- Nico Keilman, TFR predictions and Brownian motion theory, Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 38, 2002, 209-221
- Nico Keilman, Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95, Population Studies 55(2), 2001, 149-164
- Nico Keilman, Uncertain population forecasts, Nature 412, 6846, 2001, 490-491
- Nico Keilman and Dinh Quang Pham, Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility, European Journal of Population 16(1), 2000, 41-66
- Nico Keilman, How accurate are the United Nations' world population projections?,Population and Development Review supplement to Volume 24, 1998, 15-41
-
Divino, Fabio; Belay, Denekew Bitew; Keilman, Nico & Frigessi, Arnoldo (2021). Spatial modelling of Lexis mortality data. Spatial Statistics. ISSN 2211-6753. 44. doi: 10.1016/j.spasta.2021.100532. Show summary
-
Kastrati, Avni & Keilman, Nico (2021). Culture, tradition, and the registration of deaths: The case of Kosovo. Statistical Journal of the IAOS. ISSN 1874-7655. 37(4), p. 1125–1137. doi: 10.3233/SJI-210840. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2020). Évaluer les prévisions probabilistes de population. Economie et Statistique. ISSN 0336-1454. 520-521, p. 51–68.
-
Keilman, Nico & Kristoffersen, Sigve (2020). European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? In Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (Ed.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-42471-8. p. 179–192. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_9. Full text in Research Archive
-
Keilman, Nico (2020). Evaluating probabilistic population forecasts. Economie et Statistique. ISSN 0336-1454. 520-521, p. 49–64. doi: 10.24187/ecostat.2020.520d.2033. Full text in Research Archive
-
Keilman, Nico (2020). Uncertainty in population forecasts for the twenty-first century. Annual Review of Resource Economics. ISSN 1941-1340. 12, p. 449–470. doi: 10.1146/annurev-resource-110319-114841.
-
Keilman, Nico (2019). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 41(40), p. 1147–1196. doi: 10.4054/DEMRES.2019.41.40. Full text in Research Archive
-
Keilman, Nico (2019). Erroneous population forecasts. In Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (Ed.), Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-05074-0. p. 95–111. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2019). Family projection methods: A review. In Schoen, Robert (Eds.), Analytical Family Demography. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-319-93227-9. p. 277–301. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-93227-9_12. Full text in Research Archive
-
Borgan, Ørnulf & Keilman, Nico (2019). Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia? European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 35(1), p. 87–99. doi: 10.1007/s10680-018-9468-2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
-
Linder, Dennis; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Piaserico, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2017). Simulating the life course of psoriasis patients: the interplay between therapy intervention and marital status. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology. ISSN 0926-9959. 32(1), p. 62–67. doi: 10.1111/jdv.14567. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting: Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands, 2011–2041. Journal of Population Research. ISSN 1443-2447. 34(1), p. 17–43. doi: 10.1007/s12546-016-9175-y. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Household forecasting: Preservation of age patterns. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070. 32(3), p. 726–735. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.10.007. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico; Tymicki, Krzysztof & Skirbekk, Vegard (2014). Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women. International Journal of Population Research. ISSN 2090-4029. doi: 10.1155/2014/908385. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
-
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad; Forster, Jonathan; Keilman, Nico & Raymer, James [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2013). Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe. Journal of Official Statistics. ISSN 0282-423X. 29(4), p. 583–607. doi: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041.
-
Keilman, Nico & Keller, Lisa Dahl (2013). Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen? Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. p. 28–38.
-
Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data - the case of Denmark and Finland. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 28, p. 1263–1302. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.43. Show summary
-
Cohen, Joel; Kravdal, Øystein & Keilman, Nico (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. ISSN 0027-8424. 108(29), p. 11830–11835. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107993108.
-
Keilman, Nico (2010). On age structures and mortality. In Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Ogawa, Naohiro & Gauthier, Anne (Ed.), Ageing in Advanced Industrial States. Springer. ISSN 978-90-481-3552-3. p. 23–46.
-
Alho, Juha & Keilman, Nico (2010). On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society). ISSN 0964-1998. 173, p. 117–143. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico & Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad (2010). Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 26(1), p. 47–72. doi: 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2008). Changing views of future demographic trends. In Alho, Juha; Hougaard Jensen, Svend & Lassila, Jukka (Ed.), Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 978-0-521-87740-4. p. 11–33.
-
Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2008). Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty. In Alho, Juha; Hougaard Jensen, Svend & Lassila, Jukka (Ed.), Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 978-0-521-87740-4. p. 34–54.
-
Keilman, Nico (2008). Erroneous population forecasts. In Festy, Patrick & Sardon, Jean-Paul (Ed.), Hommage à Gérard Calot - Profession: démographe. Institut national d'études démographiques. ISSN 978-2-7332-4023-6. p. 237–254.
-
Keilman, Nico (2008). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 34(1), p. 137–153. Show summary
-
Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2007). Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 23, p. 33–69. doi: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? Population Trends. ISSN 0307-4463. p. 20–30. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2006). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back. In Wunsch, Guillaume; Caselli, Graziella & Vallin, Jacques (Ed.), Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, A Treatise in Population Studies Volume 1. Elsevier. ISSN 978-0-12-765660-1. p. 213–223.
-
Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe ECE12. ISSN 0167-8000. 23(1), p. 1–10. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2006). Households and families. In Wunsch, Guillaume; Caselli, Graziella & Vallin, Jacques (Ed.), Demography: Analysis and Synthesis. Academic Press. ISSN 0-12-765664-2. p. 457–476.
-
Keilman, Nico (2005). Erroneous population forecasts. In Keilman, Nico (Eds.), Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models. Swedish Social Insurance Agency. ISSN 91-7500-326-0. p. 7–26. Show summary
-
Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Quang Dinh (2005). Befolkningsnedgang i EØS-området utsatt. SSB-Magasinet. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico & Pham, Quang Dinh (2005). Hvor lenge kommer vi til å leve? Levealder og aldersmønster for dødeligheten i Norge, 1900–2060. Økonomiske analyser. ISSN 0800-4110. p. 43–49. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2005). The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Liabilities for Public Old Age Pensions in Norway. New Zealand Population Review. ISSN 0111-199X. 31(1), p. 35–50. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Démographie des ménages et de la famille: Application aux pays développés. In Caselli, Graziella; Vallin, Jacques & Wunsch, Guillaume (Ed.), Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Volume VI: Population et société. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques. ISSN 27332-2016-0. p. 345–388.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (2004). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. International Statistical Review. ISSN 0306-7734. 72, p. 5–18. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Types of Models for Projecting Mortality. In Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico Willem (Ed.), Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Social Insurance Board. ISSN 91-89303-24-5. p. 19–27. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Discussion: Should fertility intentions inform fertility forecasts? In Spencer, Gregory (Eds.), The direction of fertility in the United States. COPAFS. ISSN 0-9720596-0-1. p. 179–181.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Biodiversity: The threat of small households. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 421, p. 489–490. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Pensjonskommisjonen bør ta usikkerhet i befolkningsutviklingen alvorlig. Økonomiske analyser. ISSN 0800-4110. p. 16–24. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). TFR predictions based on Brownian motion theory. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland. ISSN 0506-3590. XXXVIII, p. 207–219. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Quang Dinh & Hetland, Arve (2002). Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 6, p. 407–454. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2002.6.15. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). La translation démographique: des indicateurs du moment aux indicateurs de génération et réciproquement. In Caselli, Graziella; Vallin, Jacques & Wunsch, Guillaume (Ed.), Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Volume I: La dynamique des populations. Editions de l'Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques. ISSN 2-7332-2011-X. p. 359–378.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). La traslazione demografica: dalla prospettiva di periodo a quella per generazione e viceversa. In Caselli, Graziella; Vallin, Jacques & Wunsch, Guillaume (Ed.), Demografia: La dinamica della popolozioni. Carocci, Roma. ISSN 88-430-1883-3. p. 439–461.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Uncertain population forecasts. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 412, p. 490–491. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95. Population Studies. ISSN 0032-4728. 55(2), p. 149–164. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Précision et incertitudes des prévisions nationales de population. In Wattelar, Christine & Duchêne, Josianne (Ed.), Le Défi de l'Incertitude: Nouvelles Approches en Perspectives et Prospective Démographique. Academia-Bruylant/L'Harmattan, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique. ISSN 2-87209-525-X. p. 33–67.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Quang Dinh (2000). Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 16(1), p. 41–66. doi: 10.1023/A%3A1006385413134. Show summary
-
Imhoff, Evert Van & Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Comment. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 26(3), p. 549–553. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Anton Kuijsten, 1944-2000. Bevolking en Gezin. ISSN 0772-764X. 29(1), p. 1–6.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). The future of social solidarity in Europe: The demographic background. In Gaarder, Godrun (Eds.), Towards flexible welfare states: The future of social solidarity in Europe. Europa-programmet, Oslo.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back, Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques. Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università di Roma "La Sapienza". p. 1–14.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). Over tijd en kinderen: Het Noorse model. Facta. 7, p. 12–16. Show summary
-
Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (2020). Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISBN 978-3-030-42471-8. 261 p.
-
Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (2019). Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISBN 978-3-030-05074-0. 350 p. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2005). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models. Swedish Social Insurance Agency. ISBN 91-7500-326-0. 79 p. Show summary
-
Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Social Insurance Board. ISBN 91-89303-24-5. 97 p. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2021). Trends in population health and demography. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 398(10300). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736%2821%2901113-2.
-
Keilman, Nico (2021). New population forecasts predict too few births in sub-Saharan countries. The Lancet. ISSN 0140-6736. 398.
-
Keilman, Nico & Mazzuco, Stefano (2020). Introduction. In Mazzuco, Stefano & Keilman, Nico (Ed.), Developments in Demographic Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-42471-8. p. 1–20. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-42472-5_1. Full text in Research Archive
-
Keilman, Nico (2020). A probabilistic forecast for the population of Norway, Norway’s 2020 population projections: National level results, methods and assumptions. Statistics Norway. ISSN 978-82-587-1149-7. p. 177–182.
-
Keilman, Nico (2020). Modelling education and climate change. Nature Sustainability. ISSN 2398-9629. p. 497–498. doi: 10.1038/s41893-020-0515-8.
-
Feeney, Griffith; Keilman, Nico; Schmertmann, Carl & Bijak, Jakub (2019). Editorial: The past, present, and future of demographic research. Demographic Research. ISSN 1435-9871. 41, p. 1197–1204. doi: 10.4054/DEMRES.2019.41.41.
-
Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (2019). Preface. Demographic Research Monographs. ISSN 1613-5520. p. vii–viii.
-
Keilman, Nico (2019). Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts.
-
Keilman, Nico (2019). Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts.
-
Bengtsson, Tommy; Keilman, Nico; Alho, Juha; Christensen, Kaare; Palmer, Edward & Vaupel, James W. (2019). Introduction. In Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico (Ed.), Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Springer Nature. ISSN 978-3-030-05074-0. p. 1–19. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Training Course on Demographic Analysis and Population Projections, Pristina, Kosovo, 4-7 December 2018 .
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Forventet levealder og komprimering av dødelighet: perioder og kohorter. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables.
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Increasing (but insufficient?) optimism about future life expectancy. N-IUSSP. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Eldrebølgen avlyst? Bedre termometer, men pasienten er fortsatt syk. Forskning.no. ISSN 1891-635X.
-
Syse, Astri; Pham, Quang Dinh & Keilman, Nico (2018). Dødelighet og levealder. In Leknes, Stefan; Løkken, Sturla Andreas Kise; Syse, Astri & Tønnessen, Marianne (Ed.), Befolkningsframskrivingene 2018: Modeller, forutsetninger og resultater. Statistics Norway. ISSN 978-82-537-9767-0. p. 57–86.
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Psoriasispasientenes livsløp - påvirker behandling deres parforhold? . BestPractice Dermatologi. 9(28), p. 18–19. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2018). Morgendagens eldre: større sjanse for å bo med partner og mindre sjanse for å bo alene.
-
Keilman, Nico (2017). Population Projection in Kosovo, 2017-2061: Methodology and key findings.
-
Keilman, Nico; Pham, Quang Dinh & Syse, Astri (2017). Mortality shifts and mortality compression in Norway 1900-2100: periods and cohorts. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2017). Period and cohort life expectancy, mortality compression, and age at death distribution. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). A two-sex model for first marriage.
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic demographic forecasts.
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Barnefamilier, fruktbarhetsnivå og samfunnsplanlegging .
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Befolkning: Statistisk sentralbyrå bør endre praksis og publisere sannsynlighetsprognoser. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. p. 59–66. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model . Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2016). Tar SSB høyde for den usikre demografiske utviklingen i framtiden? .
-
Bernhoft, Aksel; Albihn, Ann; Hessen, Dag Olav; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Keilman, Nico & Børresen, Trond [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2016). Hvordan skal vi sikre et landbruk som kan fø oss i framtiden? Show summary
-
Bijak, Jakub; Alberts, Isabel; Alho, Juha; Bryant, John; Buettner, Thomas & Falkingham, Jane [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2015). Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic Population Forecasts for Informed Decision Making. Journal of Official Statistics. ISSN 0282-423X. 31(4), p. 537–544. doi: 10.1515/JOS-2015-0033. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2015). Jordens befolkning, "antall munner å mette".
-
Keilman, Nico (2015). Dimension reduction by Brass' Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for five countries in Europe.
-
Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
-
Keilman, Nico (2014). Probabilistic population and household forecasts.
-
Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
-
Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments? Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
-
Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
-
Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
-
Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
-
Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
-
Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
-
Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts. Interdisciplinary Communications. ISSN 0809-8735.
-
Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View. ISSN 1781-6858. 7, p. 333–340. doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internet]. http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224469.
-
Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internet]. http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224278.
-
Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
-
Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna. Välfärd. ISSN 1651-6710. p. 6–7. Show summary
-
Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
-
Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
-
Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Quang Dinh (2005). Population decline postponed in Europe. Statistical Magazine. Show summary
-
Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2005). Assumptions for national stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico & Vogt, Yngve (2004). Utrygg pensjonsreform: Samfunnet kan tape skyhøye beløp. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico (2004). Long term public old age pension obligations in a stochastic demographic setting in Norway.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Model based errors and empirical errors in fertility and mortality forecasts for the Nordic countries.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Do Cause of Death analyses improve the accuracy of mortality forecasts?
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). Book review of S. K. Smith, J. Tayman, and D. Swanson ¿ State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis¿. Population Studies. ISSN 0032-4728. 56(3), p. 340–341.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Quang Dinh (2002). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF LOW FERTILITY FOR FAMILY STRUCTURES IN EUROPE. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's uncertain demographic future. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Age structural transitions in historical perspective: What can we learn from the past? Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Andrew Hinde, Demographic Methods. London: Arnold Publishers 1998. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. 16(2), p. 187–188.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem & Hetland, Arve (1999). Simulated confidence intervals for future period and cohort fertility. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico & Aristotelous, Georgios (2021). Expert opinion on migration data. QuantMig Deliverable D6.1. ingen. Full text in Research Archive
-
Keilman, Nico; Pham, Quang Dinh & Syse, Astri (2018). Mortality shifts and mortality compression: The case of Norway, 1900-2060. Statistics Norway. ISSN 1892-753X. Show summary
-
Kastrati, Avni; Uka, Sanije; Sojeva, Arijeta & Keilman, Nico (2017). Kosovo Population Projection 2017-2061. Kosovo Agency of Statistics. ISSN 978-9951-22-420-8.
-
Keilman, Nico (2015). Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe. ingen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
-
Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan & Smith, Peter [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge. NORFACE.
-
Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study. Økonomisk institutt. ISSN 0809-8786. 2010(22). Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Quang Dinh (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Statistics Norway. ISSN 1892-753X. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Conséquences démographiques et sociales d'une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe. Council of Europe Publishing/Editions du Conseil de l'Europe. ISSN 92-871-5441-4.
-
Keilman, Nico & Kinsella, Kevin (2004). Families and households in the 2000 round of censuses in ECE member countries. UNECE.
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe. Strasbourg: Council of Europe. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe. Council of Europe Publishing. ISSN 92-871-5342-6. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Quang Dinh & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's Uncertain Demographic Future. Statistics Norway. ISSN 82-537-5002-1. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Children and time: The Norwegian model. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. Show summary
-
Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Demographic Translation: From Period To Cohort Perspective And Back. Department of Economics, University of Oslo. ISSN 0801-1117. Show summary
-
Imhoff, Evert Van & Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Comment. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague. Show summary
Published Sep. 23, 2010 10:40 AM
- Last modified May 26, 2021 2:46 PM