Thor Olav Thoresen

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2025). Improving housing valuation for taxation: the Norwegian case. International Tax and Public Finance. ISSN 0927-5940. doi: 10.1007/s10797-025-09928-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Ring, Marius & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2025). Wealth Taxation and Charitable Giving. Review of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0034-6535. s. 1–45. doi: 10.1162/rest_a_01562. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We use third-party reported data and two quasi-experiments from Norway to study how tax incentives affect charitable giving. First, using a shock to wealth tax exposure, we estimate the semi-elasticity of giving with respect to the after-tax return on wealth. Inconsistent with the notion that households accelerate giving to reduce future taxes, we find that a 1% wealth tax reduces giving by 26%. Second, using bunching at an income-tax deduction threshold, we estimate a moderate own-price elasticity of giving of -0.44. This elasticity exhibits little heterogeneity with respect to income and wealth but is considerably larger for religious giving.

• Ollonqvist, Joonas; Tervola, Jussi; Pirttilä, Jukka & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2024). Accounting for Behavioral Effects in Microsimulation: A Reduced Form Approach. International Journal of Microsimulation. 17(3), s. 44–72. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00311. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Microsimulation models are used worldwide to assist in the policy-making of governments. The simulation models may be purely non-behavioral or they may also include modules that simulate labor supply responses to the policy change in question. The present paper demonstrates how the practitioner can employ exogeneously given response estimates to account for behavioral effects in this type of work. Response estimates are combined with individual changes in work incentives at both the extensive and intensive margins. The concepts of the participation tax rate (PTR) and the effective marginal tax rate (EMTR) are employed. In the empirical illustration we discuss distributional and social welfare effects arising from the changes in Finnish taxes and benefits that took effect in 2020.

• Jia, Zhiyang; Larsen, Bodil Merethe; Lian, Bård; Nesbakken, Runa; Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). The LOTTE System of Tax Microsimulation Models. International Journal of Microsimulation. 17(3), s. 73–95. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00308. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Microsimulation models of the LOTTE system are key tools for tax policy-making in Norway and are extensively used in the budget process. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the different modules in the LOTTE family – a non-behavioral tax-benefit model for personal income tax (LOTTE-Skatt), a labor supply model (LOTTE-Arbeid), and a model for distributional effects of commodity taxation (LOTTE-Konsum). In addition to providing descriptions of the designs of the three microsimulation models, we give examples of how the models are used in practical and academic work.

• Rees, Ray; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2023). Alternatives to paying child benefit to the rich: means testing or higher tax? Australian Economic Review. ISSN 0004-9018. doi: 10.1111/1467-8462.12511. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  There appears to be a general movement away from universal child benefits and towards means-testing. In the present article we argue that instead of suppressing the labour supply of middle-income parents by withdrawing the transfer as a function of income, one should consider the alternative of financing a generous universal child benefit by increasing taxation of income. The implications of means-testing compared with a tax-financed universal alternative are discussed analytically in a piecewise linear schedule and by combining information from behavioural and non-behavioural micro-simulation models. Our results provide support for making child benefit universal instead of means-tested.

• Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2023). Controlling for fixed effects in studies of income underreporting. European Journal of Law and Economics. ISSN 0929-1261. doi: 10.1007/s10657-023-09769-6. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The expenditure method of Pissarides and Weber (J Public Econ 39(1):17–32, 1989) shows how one backs out measure of income underreporting by the self-employed by using food consumption as trace of true income. In this paper we make a case for using panel data and fixed effects estimation in such analysis, instead of OLS estimation. The main argument is that fixed effects estimation addresses the problem of omitted variable bias in the identification. We demonstrate the use of panel data and fixed effects estimation by using large-scale administrative register data on charitable donations, exploiting that the data can be turned into a panel dataset. The results suggest that the estimation technique matters—fixed effects estimates are smaller than OLS estimates.

• Hebous, Shafik; Jia, Zhiyang; Løyland, Knut; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Øvrum, Arnstein (2023). Do Audits Improve Future Tax Compliance in the Absence of Penalties? Evidence from Random Audits in Norway. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. ISSN 0167-2681. 207, s. 305–326. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.01.001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The Norwegian Tax Administration conducted multi-year random audits on a specific item in the personal income tax return. We exploit this exceptional randomized setup to estimate the effects of tax audits on future compliance explicitly distinguishing between dynamic responses of compliant and noncompliant audited taxpayers. A priori, the literature has suggested two competing effects: a post-audit deterrence effect, whereby audits prompt taxpayers to comply in subsequent years, or a “bomb-crater” effect, whereby audits lower taxpayers’ subjective perception of the probability of future evasion being detected and hence weaken compliance. Our results show improved future compliance for six post-audit years by those found noncompliant in the audits, despite the absence of penalties. Although the findings are consistent with a deterrence effect, mainly stemming from being caught in wrongdoing rather than being penalized, we argue that there could also be a “learning effect” involved. An important implication of our study is that better information for taxpayers critically should complement tax audits.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2023). Arbeidsfradrag og skatt på formue – kommentarer til Torvik-utvalget. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 127(2), s. 30–36. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Behovet for skatteinntekter og arbeidskraft i tiden som kommer taler for at vi innretter skattesystemet slik at disinsentivene til markedsarbeid begrenses. Jeg tror imidlertid ikke at Torvikutvalgets hovedgrep for å oppnå dette – arbeidsfradraget – vil ha noe særlig effekt på sysselsettingen. I stedet foreslås det her å se på kvinners arbeidstilbud mer generelt. Jeg er enig med utvalget i at det er grunnlag for å fortsette beskatningen av formue, men mens utvalget foreslår å gjeninnføre skatt på arv, argumenterer jeg for at det kan skje innenfor en årlig skatt på nettoformue. Torvik-utvalgets rapport kan danne grunnlaget for et «historisk kompromiss» når det gjelder formuesbeskatningen, dvs. at partiene på Stortinget går sammen om å etablere et langsiktig og forutsigbart system for årlig beskatning av formue.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Ring, Marius A. K.; Nygård, Odd Erik & Epland, Jon (2022). A Wealth Tax at Work. CESifo Economic Studies. ISSN 1610-241X. 68(4), s. 321–361. doi: 10.1093/cesifo/ifac009. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Over the past decade, the question of whether and, in the event, how to tax household wealth has risen to the forefront of policy debates across the world. As Norway belongs to only a handful of countries that (still) levy an annual net wealth tax, we use the Norwegian example to review the case for annual taxation of wealth. Our discussion benefits from the use of rich administrative data, enabling us to provide a comprehensive set of empirical facts that are useful in assessing the merits of wealth taxation. We consider some of the central issues in the wealth tax debate: how the taxation of wealth fits in with personal income tax, distortionary effects, redistributional effects, and the extent to which wealth taxation may cause adverse liquidity effects for private firms. Taken together, we consider that the evidence presented here does not weaken the case for maintaining the tax in the Norwegian case: we find favorable distributional effects and efficiency losses appear to be limited.

• Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2021). Distributional Effects of a Wealth Tax under Lifetime-Dynastic Income Concepts. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. ISSN 0347-0520. 123(1), s. 184–215. doi: 10.1111/sjoe.12392. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Annual wealth tax is back on the policy agenda, but the discussion on itseffect is not well informed. When standard methodology is used and wealthtax burdens are measured against annual individual income, a large share ofthe tax burden is found to fall on people with low incomes. The present studyuses rich Norwegian administrative data to discuss the distributional effectsof wealth tax under several different income concepts, ultimately measuringincome over the lifetime of family dynasties. When measured against lifetimeincome and lifetime income in dynasties, wealth tax is mostly borne byhigh-income taxpayers and is seen as clearly redistributive.

• Christiansen, Vidar; Jia, Zhiyang & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2021). Assessing income tax perturbations. International Tax and Public Finance. ISSN 0927-5940. 29. doi: 10.1007/s10797-021-09673-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We present a scheme for analysing income tax perturbations, applied to a real Norwegian tax reform during 2016–2018. The framework decomposes the reform into a structural reform part and a tax level effect. The former consists of a distributional impact and a social efficiency effect measured as the behavioural-induced change in tax revenue. Considering the overall welfare effect conditional on inequality aversion, we back out the pivotal value of the decision makers’ inequality aversion, according to which unfavourable redistributional effects exactly cancel out a social efficiency enhancement.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2020). Hvor likestilte er mor og far? Resultater fra en beslutningsmodell for familier med førskolebarn. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 134(4), s. 66–76. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Modeller som beskriver hvordan foreldre med førskolebarn responderer på endringer i familiepolitikken har så langt kun fokusert på morens arbeidstilbud. Underforstått er det dermed moren som er den alternative omsorgspersonen i familien når barnet ikke er i barnehage. Thoresen og Vattø (2019) lanserer en modell der også fedrenes atferd påvirkes av at det er små barn i familien og her benyttes modellen til å diskutere hvor likestilte mor og far er i barneomsorgen. Selv om den nye «likestilte» modellen passer dataene bedre enn en tradisjonell modell, indikerer resultatene at mor er en viktigere person i barneomsorgen enn far

• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2019). An up-to-date joint labor supply and child care choice model. European Economic Review. ISSN 0014-2921. 112, s. 51–73. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.10.002. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Norwegian parents of preschool children base their care choices on a completely different choice set from their predecessor. Now there is essentially only one type of nonparental care – center-based care – and on the parental side fathers take a more pivotal role in early childhood care. In the present paper we develop and estimate a joint labor supply and child care choice model that takes account of these new characteristics, on the assumption that this model points to current and future modeling directions for several other economies too. Estimations suggest that the average wage elasticity for mothers is 0.25–0.30.

• Berg, Kristoffer & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Problematic response margins in the estimation of the elasticity of taxable income. International Tax and Public Finance. ISSN 0927-5940. s. 721–752. doi: 10.1007/s10797-019-09576-3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The elasticity of taxable income (ETI) holds the promise of representing a summary measure of tax efciency costs, which means that further information about the behavioral components of the ETI is not required for its use in tax policy design. However, since there are response margins that can cause biases in the estimation of the elasticity, this paper warns against neglecting information about the composition of the behavior summarized by the ETI. When using responses of the Norwegian self-employed to the tax reform of 2006 for illustration, we discuss how three diferent response margins relate to the overall ETI: working hours, tax evasion and shifts in organizational form. We provide empirical illustrations of efects of each of these margins and argue that the standard procedure for estimating the ETI produces a biased estimate due to the organizational shift margin.

• Lambert, Peter J.; Nesbakken, Runa & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). A Common Base Answer to the Question “Which Country is Most Redistributive?”. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics. ISSN 0347-0520. 122(4), s. 1467–1479. doi: 10.1111/sjoe.12366. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We believe that what most authors have in mind when referring to the “most redistributive country” is a tax/transfer schedule that is most redistributive across all pre‐tax/transfer income distributions. To measure each country's tax and transfers redistribution according to the same baseline, this paper suggests using the transplant‐and‐compare method of Dardanoni and Lambert (2002) to establish a common base. The redistributive effects of countries’ tax and transfer schedules are illustrated by employing micro data on eight countries from Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). Of the eight, Finland is found to be the most redistributive country according to the common base method

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Heterogeneity of the Carnegie Effect. The Journal of human resources. ISSN 0022-166X. 54(3), s. 726–759. doi: 10.3368/jhr.54.3.0915.7366R1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The Carnegie effect is the harm inherited wealth does to a recipient’s work effort. Carnegie effect estimates are few, reflecting that such effects are hard to trace. Most previous studies rely on data from limited-size surveys. We use information from administrative data covering the entire Norwegian population, enabling an examination of the heterogeneity of the Carnegie effect. Estimation results show significant reductions in labor supply for recipients of large inheritances. We find that Carnegie effects differ according to transfer size, the recipient’s age and eligibility for other transfer programs, and the existence of new heirs in the family chain.

• Nygård, Odd Erik; Slemrod, Joel & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion. The Economic Journal. ISSN 0013-0133. 129(620), s. 1894–1923. doi: 10.1111/ecoj.12619. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Both buyers and sellers of goods and services may benefit from letting their economic transactions go unrecorded for tax purposes. The supplier reduces his tax burden by underreporting income and sales, whereas the consumer may gain from buying a non-taxed lower-priced product. The distributional implications of such joint tax evasion depend on the amounts evaded, on where the evaders on both sides of the market are found in the income distribution, and on how the financial gain is split. Our empirical investigations show that the tax evasion-controlled estimate of income inequality in Norway exhibits more income dispersion than official estimates.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Jia, Zhiyang & Lambert, Peter J. (2016). Is there more redistribution now? A review of methods for evaluating tax redistributional effects. FinanzArchiv / Public Finance Analysis (FA). ISSN 0015-2218. 72(3), s. 302–333. doi: 10.1628/001522116X14677232484121. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Papini, Andrea (2015). Norway. Nordic Tax Journal. s. 13–22. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bø, Erlend Eide; Slemrod, Joel & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Taxes on the internet: Deterrence effects of public disclosure. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. ISSN 1945-7731. 7(1), s. 36–62. doi: 10.1257/pol.20130330. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Although Norway has a long tradition of public disclosure of tax filings, starting in 2001 anyone with Internet access could obtain individual information on income and income taxes paid. We examine the effect on income reporting of this change in the degree of public disclosure, making use of the fact that prior to 2001, in some municipalities, tax information was distributed widely through locally produced paper catalogs. We find an approximately 3 percent higher average increase in reported income among business owners living in areas where the switch to Internet disclosure represented a large change in access. (JEL H24, H25, H26). © 2015 American Economic Association

• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2015). Validation of the discrete choice labor supply model by methods of the new tax responsiveness literature. Labour Economics. ISSN 0927-5371. 37, s. 38–53. doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2015.09.001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The static structural discrete choice labor supply model continues to be a workhorse in the process of policy-making, extensively used by policy-makers to predict labor supply effects of changes in the personal income tax system. A widely used alternative to obtain estimates of individual tax responsiveness is to exploit the diversity of tax treatment generated by a tax reform to recover tax induced outcome differences in data. Response estimates obtained from analysis of tax reforms are less useful for describing effects of prospective policies, but represent an underexploited source of information for out-of-sample validation of labor supply models. The present study describes how estimates of responses in working hours and income, generated from a tax reform, can be used to validate a discrete choice labor supply model; thus, bringing together and providing guidance to how results of two main avenues of obtaining estimates of tax responsiveness can be compared and interpreted. We find that the discrete choice model used by Norwegian policy-makers performs well as measured by this type of validation.

• Dagsvik, John K.; Jia, Zhiyang; Kornstad, Tom & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2014). Theoretical and practical arguments for modeling labor supply as a choice among latent jobs. Journal of economic surveys. ISSN 0950-0804. 28(1), s. 134–151. doi: 10.1111/joes.12003. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Creedy, John; Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2013). Inequality comparisons in a multi-period framework: The role of alternative welfare metrics. The Review of Income and Wealth. ISSN 0034-6586. 59(2), s. 235–249. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-4991.2012.00512.x. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper considers the use of alternative welfare metrics in evaluations of income inequality in a multi‐period context. Using Norwegian longitudinal income data, it is found, as in many studies, that inequality is lower when each individual's annual average income is used as welfare metric, compared with the use of a single‐period accounting framework. However, this result does not necessarily hold when aversion to income fluctuations is introduced. Furthermore, when actual incomes are replaced by expected incomes (conditional on an initial period), using a model of income dynamics, higher values of inequality over longer periods are typically found, although comparisons depend on inequality and variability aversion parameters. The results are strongly influenced by the observed high degree of systematic regression toward the (geometric) mean, combined with a large extent of individual unexpected effects.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Bø, Erlend Eide; Fjærli, Erik & Halvorsen, Elin (2012). A Suggestion for Evaluating the Redistributional Effects of Tax Changes: With an Application to the 2006 Norwegian Tax Reform. Public Finance Review. ISSN 1091-1421. 40(3), s. 303–338. doi: 10.1177/1091142111432446. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  An evaluation strategy for answering the question, “Is the tax schedule more redistributive after a reform than prior to a reform?” is presented. The procedure builds upon addressing measures of tax redistribution, utilizing micro data from periods before and after the reform. Tax redistributional effects are measured in terms of a “common base” approach, which means that a benchmark is established which facilitates identifying how the redistributional efforts of policy makers develop over time. When applying this method for evaluation of the 2006 Norwegian tax reform, the results suggest that the modification of the dual income tax system of the 2006 reform has improved the redistributional effect of the schedule. This conclusion is qualified by addressing measurement challenges brought up by the reform, such as behavioral responses and timing effects.

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Lambert, Peter J. & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2012). Horizontal inequity under a dual income tax system: principles and measurement. International Tax and Public Finance. ISSN 0927-5940. 19(5), s. 625–640. doi: 10.1007/s10797-011-9198-4. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Tax systems with separate taxation of wage and capital income, also called dual income tax systems, have gained relevance through the Mirrlees Review. Obviously, such tax systems are exposed to horizontal equity (HE) failures, or horizontal inequity (HI). HE and HI have a firm grip on assessment of fair tax policies, both from an academic point of view and in general public debate. The dual income tax system of Norway was modified by the tax reform of 2006 precisely because the previous schedule failed to deliver equal tax treatment of equals. This paper discusses the meaning and measurement of HI effects of dual income tax systems, and evaluates the development of HI for Norway over the time period 2000–2008 using microdata. A copula-based identification strategy efficiently establishes a framework for evaluations of HI over time. The dual income tax system and the early announcement of its impending revision during the period under examination created measurement problems which we had to account for by defining a new income concept for the empirical strategy. As expected, we find less HI in Norway after the reform of 2006.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Bø, Erlend Eide; Fjærli, Erik & Halvorsen, Elin (2012). Distributional effects of the Norwegian tax reform of 2006. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS). ISSN 0040-716X. 53(3), s. 267–294. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper summarizes the results of recent work carried out on distributional effects of the Norwegian tax reform of 2006. The evaluation strategy is based on applications of micro data for descriptions of total redistributional effects and horizontal inequity effects, using income data for the period 2000–2008. The tax redistributional effect includes both vertical and horizontal effects; the vertical effect of the tax schedule refers to compression of the income distribution in the transformation from pre-tax income distribution to post-tax income distribution, whereas the horizontal inequity effect of taxation stands for the unequal treatment of equals. We apply recently developed methods for closer identification of tax policy changes over time on overall redistributional effects. Tax redistributional effects are measured in terms of a «common base» approach, which means that a benchmark is established facilitating identification of how the redistributional efforts of policy-makers develop over time. Horizontal tax effects of the reform are described by an estimation technique that effectively separates horizontal inequity effects from vertical redistribution. We find that modification of the dual income tax system of the 2006 reform has improved the redistributional effect of the schedule and at the same time reduced horizontal inequity. This conclusion is qualified by addressing measurement challenges brought up by the reform, such as behavioural responses and timing effects.

• Lambert, Peter J.; Nesbakken, Runa & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2012). Is there more redistribution in Scandinavia than in the US? Economics Bulletin. 32(3), s. 2146–2154. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Are the Scandinavian countries more redistributive than the US? Given the impression of Scandinavian egalitarianism one may conjecture that they redistribute more, but there is not irrefutable support for this in the literature. In general, the relationship between income inequality and redistribution from a cross-country perspective is not settled. Differences in how pre-fisc distributions enter into the measurement contribute to the ambiguity, as does the lack of an agreed redistribution measure; more fundamentally, there is not even an agreed methodology for answering the question. In this paper we re-examine the issue, applying both conventional methodology and the transplant-and-compare approach which renders fiscal regimes into a common base by adjusting for differences in pre-fisc income inequality. Redistributional efforts in the US and three Scandinavian countries, Norway, Sweden and Denmark, are found to depend on the method employed and comparisons vary for different redistribution indices. The US stands out as more tax redistributive than the Scandinavian countries using conventional methodology, but according to the common base approach, US redistributional effort is ranked below that of both Sweden and Denmark for a range of indices. This finding of strong dependence of conclusions upon the methodology adopted is worth emphasizing, since substantial efforts are allocated to the theoretical understanding of different results.

• Lambert, Peter J. & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2012). The Inequality Effects of a Dual Income Tax System. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 12(1). doi: 10.1515/1935-1682.3271. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A dual income tax system, combining progressive taxation of labor income with proportional taxation of income from capital, may or may not be unambiguously inequality reducing. Examples show that the degree of correlation between the distributions of wage and capital income, the degree of tax rate differentiation in the DIT, and reranking of tax-payers can be expected to complicate a clear-cut analysis. We trace out what can be said definitively, obtaining sufficient conditions for unambiguous inequality reduction in certain cases, and more generally identifying the nature of the implicit redistribution between labor and capital income components which is sufficient to ensure overall inequality reduction.

• Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2011). Parents' Desire to Make Equal Inter Vivos Transfers. CESifo Economic Studies. ISSN 1610-241X. 47(1), s. 121–155. doi: 10.1093/cesifo/ifq007. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study argues that parents have a desire for dividing equally between their children, and that this motive applies to transfers of gifts inter vivos. We suggest that the equal division motive competes with traditional altruism: support to the child or the children with greatest needs. When parents are drawn between these two ambitions, the degree of income compensation should be stronger in one-child families and we expect the altruism motive to dominate the equal division desire at low levels of recipients' income. We find support for both these hypotheses, when analyzing Norwegian data for inter vivos transfers behavior. The data include information about stated attitudes toward transfers among the parents, which also support the equal division motive. (JEL codes: D64, D91, H21)

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Aasness, Jørgen & Jia, Zhiyang (2010). THE SHORT-TERM RATIO OF SELF-FINANCING OF TAX CUTS: AN ESTIMATE FOR NORWAY'S 2006 TAX REFORM. National tax journal. ISSN 0028-0283. 63(1), s. 93–120. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article discusses revenue estimating procedures for changes to the personal income tax. Using partial equilibrium revenue estimates of the personal income tax cuts introduced in Norway in 2006 as an example, we fi nd wide variation in the estimates of the revenue costs of cuts depending on various factors, even in the short term. Our revenue estimates take into account labor supply responses and changes in revenues from payroll taxes and indirect taxes, and we compare our results to those obtained using current static revenue estimating procedures. In general, we find that more than 60 percent of the static revenue cost of personal income tax cuts is offset with higher tax revenues from other tax bases and higher personal income taxes due to increases in labor supply.

• Thoresen, Thor olav & Alstadsæter, Annette (2010). Shifts in Organizational Form under a Dual Income Tax System. FinanzArchiv / Public Finance Analysis (FA). ISSN 0015-2218. 66(4), s. 384–418. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kalb, Guyonne & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2010). A comparison of family policy designs of Australia and Norway using microsimulation models. Review of Economics of the Household. ISSN 1569-5239. 8(2), s. 255–287. doi: 10.1007/s11150-009-9076-3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Many of the Australian family support schemes are income-tested transfers, targeted towards the lower end of the income distribution, whereas the Norwegian approach is to provide subsidized non-parental care services and universal family payments. We contrast these two types of policies and discuss policy changes within these policy types by presenting results from simulations, using microsimulation models developed for Australia and Norway. Labor supply effects and distributional effects are discussed for the hypothetical policy changes of replacing the means-tested family payments of Australia by the Norwegian universal child benefit schedule and vice versa, and of reducing the childcare fees in both countries. The analysis highlights that the case for policy changes is restricted by the economic environment and the role of family policy in the two countries. Whereas there is considerable potential for increased labor supply of Australian mothers, it may have detrimental distributional effects and is likely to be costly. In Norway, mothers already have high labor supply and any adverse distributional effects of further labor supply incentives occur in an economy with low initial income dispersion. However, expenditure on family support is already high and the question is whether this should be further extended.

• Cappelen, Ådne; Jia, Zhiyang; Nesbakken, Runa; Prestmo, Joakim Blix & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2010). Effekter av dynamisk skattepolitikk. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 64(4), s. 4–14. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Individers atferd påvirkes av endringer i skattesystemet, ofte omtalt som dynamiske effekter. Ved beskrivelser av de økonomiske konsekvensene av skatteendringer er det avgjørende hvor store de dynamiske effektene er og hvilke dynamiske effekter man tar hensyn til. I artikkelen vises det til effekter på offentlige finanser av tre ulike former for reduksjoner i inntektsskatten for personer, beskrevet ved to metodiske innfallsvinkler, en partiell mikrosimuleringsanalyse basert på en estimert arbeidstilbudsmodell og en makrosimulering som i større grad tar hensyn til reperkusjoner i økonomien. Analysen viser fordelen ved å ha informasjon fra begge de to metodiske tilnærmingene. Mikroanalysene neglisjerer viktige dynamiske effekter som fanges opp av makrotilnærmingen, mens detaljeringsgraden i makro er utilstrekkelig til å fange opp at ulike endringer virker forskjellig på atferden.

• Lambert, Peter J. & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2009). Base independence in the analysis of tax policy effects: with an application to Norway 1992–2004. International Tax and Public Finance. ISSN 0927-5940. 16(2), s. 219–252. doi: 10.1007/s10797-008-9067-y. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The analysis contrasts results of two recently expounded microlevel data approaches to derive robust intertemporal characterizations of redistributional effects of income tax schedules; the fixed-income procedure of Kasten et al. (Tax progressivity and Income Inequality, Cambridge University Press, 1994) and the transplant-and-compare method of Dardanoni and Lambert (J. Public Econ. 86:99–122, 2002). Our study is normative in that the Blackorby and Donaldson (Can. J. Econ. 17:683–694, 1984) index of tax progressivity is employed. This enables contributions from vertical redistribution and horizontal inequity also to be assessed, using for the latter one classical measure and one no reranking measure. When the competing methodologies are applied to Norwegian data for 1992–2004, their respective strengths and weaknesses are revealed. The transplant-and-compare procedure is found to have a number of advantages.

• Kornstad, Tom & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2006). Effects of Family Policy Reforms in Norway: Results from a Joint Labour Supply and Childcare Choice Microsimulation Analysis. Fiscal studies. ISSN 0143-5671. 27(3), s. 339–371. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8578.2006.00038.x. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kornstad, Tom & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2005). A discrete choice model for labor supply and childcare. Journal of Population Economics. ISSN 0933-1433. 20(4), s. 781–803. doi: 10.1007/s00148-005-0025-z. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Gunnes, Trude; Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen; Solbakken, Edda Torsdatter; Thoresen, Thor Olav; Vattø, Trine Engh & Yndesdal, Gjermund Elias Sterri (2026). Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse av gratis barnehage. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Denne rapporten analyserer samfunnsøkonomiske virkninger av å innføre gratis barnehage for alle barn i alderen 1–5 år.

• Nygård, Odd Erik; Thoresen, Thor Olav; Vattø, Trine Engh & Wennemo, Tom (2026). Skattesystemets omfordelende effekt 2021–2025. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Er skattesystemet mer omfordelende i 2025 enn i 2021? I denne rapporten diskuterer vi hvordan skattepolitikkens utforming har bidratt til omfordeling av inntekt i perioden fra 2021 til 2025 (under Støre-regjeringen).

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2024). Hedonic regression models for housing tax valuation. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jia, Zhiyang; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2024). Explaining the Declining Labor Supply Responsiveness of Married Women. CESifo Working Papers. ISSN 1617-9595. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bø, Erlend Eide; Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2024). Hedonic regression models for housing tax valuation. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2024). Editorial. 50 years with LOTTE. International Journal of Microsimulation. 17(3), s. I–III. doi: 10.34196/ijm.00313. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vattø, Trine Engh & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2022). Kan reformer av skattesystemet få kvinner til å jobbe mer? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aaberge, Rolf; Halvorsen, Elin; Mogstad, Magne; Nøstbakken, Linda; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vestad, Ola Lotherington [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2022). Ulike perspektiver gir nyanserte svar. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  https://www.dn.no/innlegg/ulikhet/ssb/forskning/innlegg-ssb-om-ulikhet-ulike-perspektiver-gir-nyanserte-svar/2-1-1218843

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Ring, Marius A. K.; Nygård, Odd Erik & Epland, Jon (2021). A Wealth Tax at Work. SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jia, Zhiyang & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2021). Welfare effects of tax policy change when there are choice restrictions on labour supply. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Apps, Patricia; Rees, Ray; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2021). Alternatives to paying child benefit to the rich: means testing or higher tax? SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2020). Mange rikinger har null inntekt. Det gir pen profil på Solbergs skattekutt. [Journal]. E24. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hebous, Shafik; Jia, Zhiyang; Løyland, Knut; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Øvrum, Arnstein (2020). Do audits improve future tax compliance in the absence of penalties? Evidence from random Audits in Norway. SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Christiansen, Vidar; Jia, Zhiyang & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2020). Assessing income tax perturbations. SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Apps, Patricia; Rees, Ray; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2020). Alternatives to Paying Child Benefit to the Rich: Means Testing or Higher Tax? CESifo Working Papers. ISSN 1617-9595. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bø, Erlend Eide; Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2020). Investigating the “Carnegie effect”. Significance. ISSN 1740-9705. 17(3), s. 6–7. doi: 10.1111/1740-9713.01393. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Welfare Changes in Discrete Choice Labour Supply Models Accounting for Latent Choice Restrictions. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Skatteberegninger for finanskomiteen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2019). Det er vel de rike som betaler formuesskatt - eller? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Ognedal, Tone; Storesletten, Kjetil & Raaum, Oddbjørn (2019). Uformelle diskusjoner om skatt. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Andreassen, Leif; Lian, Bård; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2017). Alternativ familiepolitikk. Hvordan virker den? I Ellingsæter, Anne Lise (Red.), NOU 2017: 6 Offentlig støtte til barnefamiliene. Departementenes servicesenter. ISSN 9788258313233. s. 298–365. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I dette kapitlet beskrives ytelser som er rettet mot spesielle grupper av barnefamilier. Alle ytelsene har ulike inngangskriterier. Kapitlet omfatter beskrivelser av stønader til enslige foreldre, bidragsforskott, stønader til studenter med barn samt barnetilleggene i trygdeytelsene, med vekt på arbeidsavklaringspenger og uføretrygd.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Problematic Response Margins in the Estimation of the Elasticity of Taxable Income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Barnetrygd til rikfolk også? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Pedersen, Axel West; Syltevik, Liv Johanne & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Nei til inntektsprøving av barnetrygden. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Halvorsen, Elin (2016). Distribution of the Annual Wealth Tax on Lifetime-Dynastic Income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nygård, Odd Erik; Slemrod, Joel & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Distributional Implications of Joint Tax Evasion. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Kommentar til rapport utarbeidet av SV om at forskjellene øker. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Distribution of the Annual Wealth Tax on Lifetime-Dynastic Income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Berg, Kristoffer (2015). On the Multiple Behavioral Margins of Self-Employment. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Heterogeneity of the Carnegie Effects. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Papini, Andrea & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Norway. I Hilling, Axel (Red.), Taxation of Partnership - Economic National Reports for the Nordic Tax Research Council´s Annual Meeting, 2015, in Aarhus. De Gruyter Open. s. 121–130. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Is there More Redistribution Now? A Toolkit for Evaluating Tax Redistributional Effects. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Taxation of self-employment and partnerships in Norway”. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2015). Forskning på skatteunndragelser ved OFS. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2014). Hvordan virker ulike former for personskatt på arbeidstilbudet? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2014). The Expenditure Approach and Hidden Economy Analysis. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2014). Respons til Havnes, Mogstad og Salvanes. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 128(7), s. 25–27. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2013). Åpne skattelister gir mindre juks. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2013). NRK dagsrevyen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Bø, Erlend Eide; Fjærli, Erik & Halvorsen, Elin (2011). Evaluating the redistributional effects of tax policy changes: with an application to the 2006 Norwegian tax reform. SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nygård, Odd Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2009). Fordeling av skattebyrden 1995 – 2006. I Cappelen, Ådne (Red.), Fordelingsutvalget. Finansdepartementet. ISSN 9788258310164. s. 362–373. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Alstadsæter, Annette; Fjærli, Erik & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2006). Om bakgrunnen for og utformingen av skattereformen i 2006. Beta – Scandinavian Journal of Business Research. ISSN 0801-3322. s. 64–80. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Håkonsen, Lars; Kornstad, Tom; Løyland, Knut & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2003). Politikken overfor familier med førskolebarn - noen veivalg. Økonomiske analyser. ISSN 0800-4110. 22(5), s. 3–12. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Familiepolitikken har stått sentralt i den politiske debatten det siste tiåret. Samlet sett har overføringene til barnefamiliene økt med 30-40 prosent i perioden, og blant annet er store satsinger vedtatt. Vi tenker da på kontantstøtten og barnehageforliket, hvorav den første stimulerer til å redusere, mens barnehageforliket stimulerer til å øke mødres tilbud av arbeid. Artikkelen skisserer effekter av to mer rendyrkede utforminger av familiepolitikken. I det såkalte nøytralitetsalternativet samles overføringene til barnefamiliene i en barnetrygdlignende ordning, mens sysselsettingsalternativet innebærer ytterligere overføringer til barnehagene, slik at foreldrebetalingen reduseres til null.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Vattø, Trine Engh & Zachrisson, Henrik Daae (2026). Reducing child poverty through cash or care. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). doi: https:/www.ssb.no/inntekt-og-forbruk/inntekt-og-formue/artikler/skal-en-redusere-barnefattigdom-med-okt-barnetrygd-eller-gratis-barnehage. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  De siste tiårenes økning i barnefattigdom har fått betydelig oppmerksomhet. I denne analysen retter vi søkelyset mot hvilke tiltak som er mest effektive i fattigdomsbekjempelsen for familier med barn i alderen 1–5 år – økte kontantytelser, som høyere barnetrygd, eller tiltak som gratis barnehage.

• Jia, Zhiyang; Skagseth, Snorre Brunes; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2026). A practical framework for behavioral microsimulation using external evidence. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Ulike typer mikrosimuleringsmodeller er utviklet for å gi beslutningsstøtte i utviklingen av skattepolitikken. For norske beslutningstakere er det for dette formålet utviklet en familie av mikrosimuleringsmodeller kjent som LOTTE-modellene.

• Lian, Bård; Nygård, Odd Erik; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2023). Økte renter – hva betyr det for husholdningenes økonomi? Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788258718618. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lian, Bård; Nygård, Odd Erik; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2022). De økte utgiftene for husholdningene i 2022 - hvem rammes mest? Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788258716157. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Det er betydelig interesse for hvordan prisendringene i 2022 påvirker husholdningenes økonomi. Denne rapporten vurderer hvordan husholdninger på ulike inntektsnivåer rammes av det «økonomiske sjokket» i 2022. Det beregnes et årlig tap for husholdningene ved at en sammenlikner utsiktene for 2022 ved inngangen av året, som beskrevet i SSBs konjunkturanalyser fra desember 2021, med den tilsvarende beskrivelsen fra september 2022. Analysene baserer seg på informasjon om husholdningers forbruksmønstre som beskrevet ved skatteberegningsmodellen LOTTE-Konsum.

• Lian, Bård; Nesbakken, Runa; Thoresen, Thor Olav; Jia, Zhiyang; Nygård, Odd Erik & Vattø, Trine Engh (2019). Er skattesystemet mer omfordelende nå? Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253799995. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I denne rapporten er ambisjonen å besvare spørsmålet om skattesystemet i 2019 er mer eller mindre omfordelende enn skattesystemet i 2013. Dette spørsmålet besvares ved å anvende skattesystemer i tidsperioden 2013–2019 på én og samme inntektsfordeling. Tidligere har vi anvendt samme metodikk for å vurdere omfordelingen ved skattepolitikken til den rødgrønne regjeringen (2005–2013). Nå vurderes utviklingen i skattenes omfordelende effekt i seks år under Solbergregjeringen. Vi spør oss derfor hva fordelingsvirkningen av skattesystemet på inntekt ville vært dersom vi erstattet dagens system med skatte- og avgiftssystemet fra 2013. I vurderingen av de ulike alternative skattesystemene anvender vi SSBs skatteberegningsmodeller, LOTTE-Skatt, LOTTE-Konsum og LOTTE-Arbeid.

• Lian, Bård; Vattø, Trine Engh & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Dokumentasjon av «LOTTE-Barn»: En registerbasert simuleringsmodul for proveny- og fordelingseffekter av foreldrebetaling i barnehage. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253795034. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Formålet med dette notatet er å dokumentere etableringen av en ny simuleringsmodul for proveny- og fordelingseffekter av endringer i systemet for foreldrebetaling i barnehage. Modellen som dokumenteres her er en registerbasert modul, som erstatter et tidligere modellkonsept, basert på utvalgsdata fra Barnetilsynsundersøkelsen 2010. Den forrige modellen er dokumentert i Lian, Midttømme og Thoresen (2012). Den nye barnetilsynsmodulen anvender registerdata fra Inntekts- og formuesstatistikken for husholdninger. Det betyr at det nå er mulig å oppdatere grunnlagsdataene årlig. Modellen knyttes sterkere opp mot skatteberegningsmodellen LOTTE-Skatt (Hansen mfl, 2008) siden modellgrunnlaget er felles. LOTTE-Skatt er en simuleringsmodell som beregner effekter på proveny og fordeling av endringer i regelverket for skatter og overføringer, men det tas ikke hensyn til eventuelle effekter på arbeidstilbudet av endringer i beskatningen. Tilsvarende gir LOTTE-Barn også beskrivelser av direkte effekter. Det betyr at modellen ikke beregner eventuelle atferdseffekter, som effekter på arbeidstilbudet og bruk av barnehage.

• Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2017). Distributional Effects of the Wealth Tax under a Lifetime-Dynastic Income Concept. CESifo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vattø, Trine Engh (2017). An Up-To-Date Labor Supply and Child Care Choice Model. CESifo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nygård, Odd Erik; Slemrod, Joel & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Distributional implications of joint tax evasion. CESifo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Both buyers and sellers of goods and services may bene.t from letting their economic transactions go unrecorded for tax purposes. The supplier reduces his tax burden by underreporting income, whereas the consumer gains from buying a non-taxed lower-priced product. The distributional implications of such joint tax evasion depend on the amounts evaded, on where the evaders on both sides of the market are found in the income distribution and how the financial gain is split between the suppliers and demanders. We use various data sources to identify tax evasion among sellers and buyers of goods and services. Results clearly suggest that the tax-evasion-controlled estimate of income inequality in Norway exhibits more income dispersion than official estimates.

• Bø, Erlend Eide; Halvorsen, Elin & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Heterogeneity of the Carnegie Effect. Statistics Norway. Research Department.. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Berg, Kristoffer & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2016). Problematic Response Margins in the Estimation of the Elasticity of Taxable Income. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is known to represent a summary measure of tax efficiency costs, which means that further information about the behavioral components of the ETI is not required for its use in tax policy design. However, as there are response margins that may cause biases in the estimation of the elasticity, we advise against neglecting information about the composition of the behavior seized by the ETI. When using responses of the Norwegian self-employed to the tax reform of 2006 for illustration, we discuss how four different responses relate to the overall ETI, given characteristics of the reform. Effects on working hours, on tax evasion, and from shifts in organizational form and across tax bases are discussed in terms of to what extent they represent sources to estimation bias, or enter into the ETI in a decompositional way. We provide empirical illustrations of the effects of each of these margins.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav; Zhiyang, Jia & Lambert, Peter J. (2015). Is there More Redistribution Now? A Toolkit for Evaluating Tax Redistributional Effects. Statistics Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Holmøy, Erling & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2013). Grunnlag for vurdering av arbeidstilbudspotensialet i Norge på lang sikt. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253786124. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Rapporten gir en oversikt over forhold som bør være relevante når man skal utarbeide langsiktige fremskrivninger av arbeidsstyrken og sysselsettingen. Den er skrevet på oppdrag for Finansdepartementet som et grunnlag for de langsiktige fremskrivningene av norsk økonomi i Perspektivmeldingen 2013. I tråd med tradisjonell økonomisk teori, legger rapporten til grunn at det er arbeidstilbudet som betyr mest for den faktiske sysselsettingsutviklingen i et langsiktig tidsperspektiv. Endringer i arbeidstilbudet kan ha tre hovedkilder: 1) demografi, dvs. endringer i befolkningen som er i yrkesaktiv alder; 2) sammensetningseffekter, dvs. endringer i fordelingen av den yrkesaktive befolkningen på grupper som er vedvarende ulike når det gjelder gjennomsnittlig individuelt arbeidstilbud; 3) endringer i økonomiske og andre incentiver som påvirker det individuelle arbeidstilbudet

• Lian, Bård; Nesbakken, Runa & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2013). Skattesystemets omfordelende effekt 2005-2013. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253787046. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Det er betydelig interesse for hvordan skattesystemet virker på inntektsfordelingen. I SSB har en derfor hatt betydelig fokus på utvikling av data, simuleringsmodeller og metoder for å kunne besvare slike spørsmål. I denne rapporten diskuteres det hvordan regelendringer i inntekts- og formuesskatten for personer virker på graden av omfordeling i perioden fra 2005 til 2013. Arbeidet er utført på oppdrag av Finansdepartementet, som også bidrar til denne type analyser gjennom støtte til utvikling og vedlikehold av skatteberegningsmodellen LOTTE.

• Lambert, Peter J.; Nesbakken, Runa & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2011). On the meaning and measurement of redistribution in cross-country comparisons. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Empirical findings on the relationship between income inequality and redistribution from a crosscountry perspective are not conclusive. One reason may be that observers have in mind different concepts of redistribution. A major factor is that comparator countries’ pre-fisc distributions typically differ markedly, and account is taken of this differently (if at all) by different measures of redistribution. The ambiguities can be resolved by applying the “transplant-and-compare” approach, rendering fiscal regimes into a common base by adjusting for differences in pre-fisc income inequality, and then measuring the “pure” effect of tax-and-transfer policies using this benchmark. We illustrate both what is possible, and what remains problematic, using this technique, by conducting an exploratory international comparison, based on microdata from the Luxembourg Income Study database in combination with more aggregated information from the OECD, for 15 countries.

• Hansen, Kirsten; Lian, Bård; Nesbakken, Runa & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2008). LOTTE-Skatt – en mikrosimuleringsmodell for beregning av direkte skatter for personer. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253774343. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Hovedformålet med rapporten er å dokumentere skatteberegningsmodellen LOTTE-Skatt for beregning av direkte skatter for personer. Denne mikrosimuleringsmodellen er et viktig verktøy i arbeidet med å beregne effekter på skatteproveny og fordeling av inntekt og skatt ved endring i skatteregler. Finansdepartementet og politikere på Stortinget er viktige etterspørrere av analyser basert på modellen. En hovedanvendelse av modellen er at den benyttes i forberedelsene av statsbudsjettet og nasjonalbudsjettet. Modellen beregner de umiddelbare, direkte effektene av en skatteendring, uten atferdseffekter. LOTTESkatt er del av et modellsystem som også inneholder delmodellene LOTTEKonsum og LOTTE-Arbeid. Disse modellene fanger opp henholdsvis fordelingseffekter av endringer i indirekte skatter og effekter på arbeidstilbudet av endringer i direkte skatter.

• Dagsvik, John K.; Kornstad, Tom; Jia, Zhiyang & Thoresen, Thor Olav (2008). LOTTE-Arbeid – en mikrosimuleringsmodell for arbeidstilbudseffekter. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788253773544. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Å lage modellverktøy til å studere effekter av endringer i skattesystemet har en lang historie i Statistisk sentralbyrå. Skatteberegningsmodellen LOTTE er en viktig del av modellapparatet som Forskningsavdelingen i Statistisk sentralbyrå har tilrettelagt for dem som arbeider med å utforme politikk. Modeller av denne typen kalles mikrosimuleringsmodeller fordi det fokuseres på mikroaktører og fordi modellen simulerer effekter basert på hvert enkelt individ eller husholdning. Innenfor LOTTE-systemet har det til nå ikke vært mulig å ta hensyn til at skatteendringer påvirker personers eller husholdningers arbeidstilbud. Siden effekter på arbeidstilbudet står sentralt i mange omlegginger av skattesystemet, har det vært et viktig satsingsområde i Forskningsavdelingen i Statistisk sentralbyrå å utvikle en modell som kunne predikere slike effekter. Utvikling av en slik modell er krevende siden dette fordrer en god atferdsmodell for hvordan personer bestemmer sin tilknytning til arbeidslivet, gitt skattesystemet og andre økonomiske rammebetingelser, og gitt diverse kjennetegn ved personene. Den foreliggende rapporten beskriver arbeidet med å integrere en arbeidstilbudsmodul i LOTTE-systemet, kalt LOTTEArbeid. Hovedhensikten med mikrosimuleringsmodellen LOTTE-Arbeid er å gi anslag på proveny- og fordelingseffekter av endringer i skattesystemet som også tar hensyn til at skatteendringer påvirker arbeidstilbudet. Målet er at beslutningstakerne skal kunne benytte denne modellen i budsjettprosessen. Denne rapporten gir en fremstilling av viktige elementer i LOTTE-Arbeid.

• Thoresen, Thor Olav (2003). Særavgifter og grensehandel: Rapport fra Grensehandelsutvalget. Utredning fra et utvalg oppnevnt av regjeringen 22. januar 2003. Avgitt til Finansdepartementet 30. april 2003. Statens forvaltningstjeneste, Informasjonsforvaltning. ISSN 9788258307157. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA