Ragnar Nymoen

• Elin Svarstad og Ragnar Nymoen: Wage inequality and union membership at the establishment level: An econometric study using Norwegian data,  Oxford Economic Papers, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpac018
• Ragnar Nymoen: The role of wage formation in empirical macroeconometric models” in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.641
• Marit Gjelsvik, Ragnar Nymone og Victoria Sparrman: Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage Price Dynamics, Econometrics, 2020, 8, 1-29. https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics8030029
• Andre Kallåk Anundsen and Ragnar Nymoen: Testing the Empirical Relevance of the 'Saving for a Rainy Day' Hypothesis in US Metro Areas", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81 6, (2019), 1118-1335.doi: 10.1111/obes.12310
• Ragnar Nymoen: Between Institutions and Global forces. Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation. Econometrics 2017, 5(1), 6; doi:10.3390/econometrics5010006
• Ragnar Nymoen and Victoria Sparrman: Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 77 (2), 164-190, April 2015
• Nina Skrove Falch and Ragnar Nymoen. "The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank". Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment
  E-Journal, Vol. 5, 2011-15.
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Macroeconometric modeling for policy," Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Vol 2, 2009
• Q.Farooq Akram and Ragnar Nymoen, "Model selection for monetary policy analysis-How important is empirical validity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Vol 1, 2009, 35-68
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2009
• Solveig Erlandsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics 21(3), 2008, 505-520
• Gunnar Bårdsen,Eilev S. Jansen, Øyvind Eitrheim and Ragnar Nymoen, "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," Oxford: Oxford University Press 2005. (338 pages)
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Testing steady-state implications for the NAIRU," in Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 2003, 1070-1075
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Econometric evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 66(suppl 1), 2004, 671-686
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Econometric inflation targeting," Econometrics Journal 6, 2003, 429-460
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Paul F. Fisher and Ragnar Nymoen, "Business cycles: Real facts or fallacies?" s. 499-527 in Steinar Strøm (edt.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998
• Steinar Holden and Ragnar Nymoen, "Measuring structural unemployment: NAWRU estimates in the Nordic countries," in Scandinavian Journal of Economics 104(1), 2002, 87-104

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2026). Pattern Wage Bargaining and Long-Term Exchange Rate Volatility. Metroeconomica. ISSN 0026-1386. doi: 10.1111/meca.70009. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  National wage-setting systems with pattern wage bargaining (PWB) were developed under fixed exchange rates. Under floating regimes, high exchange rate volatility interacts with PWB, creating complex wage-price dynamics. Using Norway as a case, we model these dynamics under empirically relevant long-term exchange rate fluctuations. Comparative statics show that, with one-way causality from depreciation to wages, steady-state inflation remains robust. Under two-way causality, the steady state is altered, potentially shifting mean inflation and, in some cases, generating explosive wage–exchange rate dynamics. Simulations of calibrated dynamic PWB models illustrate these effects and provide insights relevant for policy design.

• Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar; Sali, Bilal & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy: COVID-19 in Norway. Economic Analysis and Policy. ISSN 0313-5926. 88, s. 1633–1651. doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.037. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The paper documents an empirical model of the joint effects on health and the economy of the COVID-19 virus in Norway. The model is an extension of the econometric framework which has been used for real time forecasting of new cases and hospital beds during the pandemic. An important premise for modelling has been the extension of the daily measurement system to include daily indicators of economic activity. We build on existing methods for temporal disaggregation, and “dailylize” the monthly GDP data by the use of a daily Financial News Index. We distinguish between awareness effects and the effects of endogenous changes in containment policies. We find significant effects on the economy through both channels. We also find that the effects of containment policies were more negative in 2020 than later in the pandemic. A plausible explanation is that firms, households and the government learned how to adapt to the pandemic.

• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2025). U.S. Wage-Price Dynamics, Before, During and After COVID-19, Through the Lens of an Empirical Econometric Model. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 87(6), s. 1122–1145. doi: 10.1111/obes.12686. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We specify a multiple-equation model with equilibrium-correction terms, which connect inflation to the wage share and the functional income distribution, while not excluding a priori variables that are typically found in existing empirical U.S. Phillips curve models. We estimate the model equations using automatic variable selection with low Type-1 error probabilities on a sample with quarterly data that starts in the 1960s. Conditional on a relatively small number of location shift indicators, the price and wage equations have relatively constant parameters. The model's explanatory power is shown by dynamic simulations. Applied to the COVID-19 period, the model shows that wage growth was important initially but that other factors later also became important, in particular the broad increase in international prices. Out-of-sample simulation shows how well the model forecasts inflation since early 2023.

• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Dynamic time series modelling and forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway. International Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0169-2070. 41(1), s. 251–269. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2024.05.004. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A framework for forecasting new COVID-19 cases jointly with hospital admissions and hospital beds with COVID-19 cases is presented. This project, dubbed CovidMod, produced 21 days ahead forecasts each working day from March 2021 to April 2022. Comparison of RMSFEs from that period, with the RMSFEs of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), favours the CovidMod forecasts, both for new cases and for hospital beds. Another comparison, with the short term forecasts produced by the Cardt method, shows little difference. Next, we present a new model where smooth transition regression is used as a feasible method to include forecasted effects of non-linear policy responses to the deviation between hospital beds and hospital bed capacity, on the forecasts of the original three variables. The forecasting performance of the model with endogenous policy effects is demonstrated retrospectively. It is suggested as a complementary approach to follow when the forecasted variables are generated from processes that include policy responses as realistic features.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2023). Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models—the case of Norway. National Accounting Review. ISSN 2689-3010. 5(1), s. 1–22. doi: 10.3934/NAR.2023001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Dynamisk modellering og framskrivning av nye smittede og innlagte med Covid-19 i Norge. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 136(1), s. 1–13. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I denne analysen presenteres det modellbaserte prognoser for daglige antall nye smittede og for antallet personer som er innlagte på sykehus med påvist Covid-19. Modellen, CovidMod, er komplementær til framskrivningsmetodene som FHI har benyttet til å lage prognoser på nasjonalt nivå under pandemien. Framskrivningene med CovidMod i 2021 har resultert i en database med daglige prognoser og prognosefeil. En sammenligning med FHIs tre ukers prognoser viser at CovidMod har hatt lavere RMSFE («Root Mean Squared Forecast Error») for både nye smittetilfeller og for antallet pasienter som er innlagt på sykehus. Den store smittebølgen i november og desember 2021 utgjør en interessant «case». I modellen forklares denne bølgen av Deltavarianten av viruset, og av gjenåpningen av samfunnet som hadde funnet sted tidligere på høsten. Til sammen bidro disse faktorene til at modellens kritiske parameter ble større enn +1, som ga en eksplosiv utvikling i prognosene. I modellen skjedde dette på tross av at det er estimert signifikante effekter av vaksinasjonsgraden.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson & Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Naturlig ledighet og den norske modellen for lønnsdannelse. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 136(3), s. 39–53. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Under frontfagsmodellen har partene i arbeidslivet mandat til å sette en riktig lønn for landet, mot at politikerne og sentralbanken sørger for at arbeidsledigheten blir så lav som mulig, gitt at arbeidsmarkedet er en del av en deregulert, internasjonal økonomi. Den fagøkonomiske litteraturen om finans- og pengepolitikk, er likevel i stor grad basert på teorien om naturlig ledighetsrate. Den tilsier at den normale ledighetsraten ikke påvirkes av endringer i samlet etterspørsel, herunder fra økonomisk politikk. Det betyr at ledigheten på lang sikt hverken kan bli vesentlig lavere eller vesentlig høyere enn et normalt nivå som i stor grad er markedsbestemt. I så fall hverken kan eller bør makroøkonomisk politikk prøve å gjøre mer enn å jevne ut naturlige fluktuasjoner rundt det naturlige ledighetsnivået. Denne artikkelen argumenterer for at den koordinerte lønnsdannelsen påvirker sentrale mekanismer i norsk økonomi som muliggjør at finans- og pengepolitikken kan innrettes mot en lavere arbeidsledighet enn den markedsbestemte, uten å resultere i akselererende inflasjon og/eller ukontrollert tap av konkurranseevne.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). On the Low Degree of Entropy Implied by the Solutions of Modern Macroeconomic Models. Entropy. 24(12), s. 1–12. doi: 10.3390/e24121728. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The non-causal (“forward-looking”) solution used routinely in academic macroeconomics may represent a violation of a law of entropy, namely that the direction of time is one way (from the past and towards the present), and that the variance of economic processes increases with time. In order to re-establish a degree of compatibility with the law of entropy, so called hybrid forms are required add-ins to DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) models. However, the solution that uses hybrid forms is a particular special case of a causal solutions of autoregressive distributed lags, VARs and recursive and simultaneous equations models well known from empirical macro econometrics. Hence, hybrid forms of small scale DSGE models can be analysed and tested against competing model equations, using an econometric encompassing framework.

• Svarstad, Elin & Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Wage inequality and union membership at the establishment level: An econometric study using Norwegian data. Oxford Economic Papers. ISSN 0030-7653. 75(2), s. 371–392. doi: 10.1093/oep/gpac018. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We model the empirical relationship between the within-establishment union membership rate and wage inequality in Norway. The data set is a panel of 2,285 private-sector establishments observed in the period 2000–18. The statistical model represents joint feedback between wage inequality and union membership. Dynamic panel data models are estimated for different wage inequality measures, with gini as the reference measure. The results show a negative relationship between union membership and wage inequality, which is robust with respect to different inequality measures and estimation method. The strength of the relationship increases with the permanency of the shift in union membership. We find evidence that union membership is a more important explanatory variable for the lower part of the wage distribution than for the upper part. Furthermore, the impact of union density on wage inequality is conditional on the presence of a collective agreement.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2021). The Role of Wage Formation in Empirical Macroeconometric Models, Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780190625979. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Sparrman, Victoria & Gjelsvik, Marit (2020). Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics. Econometrics. 8(3). doi: 10.3390/econometrics8030029. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Pedersen, Kari & Sjåberg, Jon Ivar (2019). Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies. International Journal of Financial Studies (IJFS). 7(2). doi: 10.3390/ijfs7020023. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We used a time-series cross-section dataset to test several hypotheses pertaining to the role of macroprudential policy instruments in the management of the financial cycle in advanced open economies. The short-run effects are most significant for caps on loan to value and income (LTV and LTI) and risk weights (RW). The long-run coefficients of credit growth with respect to the indicators of amortisation requirements (Amort) and RW are also significant. The estimation results when house price growth is the dependent variable are consistent with these results. Our findings do not support that Basel III type countercyclical buffer (CCyB) has affected credit growth, and we suggest that the variable is mainly a control in our dataset. In that interpretation, it is interesting that the estimated coefficients of the other instruments are robust with respect to exclusion of CCyB from the empirical models. The main results are also robust to controls in the form of impulse indicator saturation (IIS), which we employed as a novel estimation method for macro panels.

• Anundsen, André Kallåk & Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Testing the empirical relevance of the "saving for a rainy day" hypothesis in US metro areas. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 81(6), s. 1318–1335. doi: 10.1111/obes.12310. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The joint implication of the consumption Euler equation and cointegration between income and consumption is that savings predict future income declines, the ‘saving for a rainy day’ hypothesis. The empirical relevance of this hypothesis plays a key role in discussions of fiscal policy multipliers, and it holds under the null that the permanent income hypothesis is true. We find little support for this hypothesis using time series data for the 100 largest US Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the period 1980q1–2015q4. Our approach is to test for cointegration and weak exogeneity between income and consumption, and by exploring the direction of Granger causality between the two time series. We find that income more often predicts consumption and saving than the converse. We also give evidence that house price changes played a role in US income and consumption dynamics, before, during and after the Great Recession.

• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2018). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts? The Engineering Economist. ISSN 0013-791X. 63(1), s. 54–65. doi: 10.1080/0013791X.2017.1283001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  An important application in the real options literature has been to investments in the oil sector. Two commonly applied "stylized facts" in such applications are tested here. One is that the correlation of the returns on oil and the stock market is positive, the other that it is invariant to changes in oil price volatility. Both are rejected in data for 1993-2008 for crude oil and the S&P 500 stock market index. Based on real options theory, consequences are pointed out. A widespread idea, that higher volatility leads to increased value and postponed investment, is not necessarily valid.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation. Econometrics. 5(1). doi: 10.3390/econometrics5010006. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper reviews the development of labour market institutions in Norway, shows how labour market regulation has been related to the macroeconomic development, and presents dynamic econometric models of nominal and real wages. Single equation and multi-equation models are reported. The econometric modelling uses a new data set with historical time series of wages and prices, unemployment and labour productivity. Impulse indicator saturation is used to achieve robust estimation of focus parameters, and the breaks are interpreted in the light of the historical overview. A relatively high degree of constancy of the key parameters of the wage setting equation is documented, over a considerably longer historical time period than earlier studies have done. The evidence is consistent with the view that the evolving system of collective labour market regulation over long periods has delivered a certain necessary level of coordination of wage and price setting. Nevertheless, there is also evidence that global forces have been at work for a long time, in a way that links real wages to productivity trends in the same way as in countries with very different institutions and macroeconomic development.

• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kolsrud, Dag & Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Forecast Robustness in Macroeconometric Models. Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0277-6693. 36(6), s. 629–639. doi: 10.1002/for.2459. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper investigates potential invariance of mean forecast errors to structural breaks in the data generating process. From the general forecasting literature, such robustness is expected to be a rare occurrence. With the aid of a stylized macro model we are able to identify some economically relevant cases of robustness and to interpret them economically. We give an interpretation in terms of co-breaking. The analytical results resound well with the forecasting record of a medium-scale econometric model of the Norwegian economy.

• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2015). Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 77(2), s. 164–190. doi: 10.1111/obes.12061. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kolsrud, Dag & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Heuristic vs formal dynamics of the wage- and price-curve model of equilibrium unemployment. Journal of economic studies. ISSN 0144-3585. 42(2), s. 186–206. doi: 10.1108/JES-05-2013-0074. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Castle, Jennifer L.; Doornik, Jurgen; Hendry, David F. & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation. Econometric Reviews. ISSN 0747-4938. 33(5-6), s. 553–574. doi: 10.1080/07474938.2013.825137. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord S.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Vislie, Jon (2014). Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve haavelmo's business cycle model. Metroeconomica. ISSN 0026-1386. 65(3), s. 460–486. doi: 10.1111/meca.12049. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kolsrud, Dag Olaf & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage Price Spiral. Australian Economic Papers. ISSN 0004-900X. 53(1-2), s. 41–68. doi: 10.1111/1467-8454.12020. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kornstad, Tom; Nymoen, Ragnar & Skjerpen, Terje (2013). Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed. Economic Modelling. ISSN 0264-9993. 33, s. 572–587. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.022. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vislie, Jon; Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord Sigurd Holmsen & Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo. Nordic Journal of Political Economy (NOPEC). ISSN 0805-7508. 37, s. 1–26. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind (2012). Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Journal of macroeconomics. ISSN 0164-0704. 34(2), s. 253–263. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.008. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Nymoen, Ragnar & Svarstad, Elin (2025). Lønnsdannelse og samfunnsøkonomi. Universitetsforlaget. ISBN 9788215073088. 203 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Dynamic Econometrics for Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling. World Scientific. ISBN 9789811207518. 567 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2014). Videregående emner i økonometri. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 9788245012132. 362 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Nymoen, Ragnar & Castle, Jennifer (2026). The Nominal Exchange Rate Regression Reconsidered. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2026). {Hovedkurs, produktivitet og lønn i historisk perspektiv. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2026). Samspillet mellom lønn og priser. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Harildstad, Anders; Nymoen, Ragnar & Slettebø, Olav (2026). Forbløffende tett kobling mellom lønn og produktivitet | DN. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Produktiviteten i industrien og reallønnen i hele Norge henger enda sterkere sammen enn man kanskje skulle tro, viser ny forskning.

• Kordt, Amund H.; Sali, Bilal; Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy: COVID-19 in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sali, Bilal (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy; COVID-19 in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Er frontfagsmodellen best for lønnsdannelsen? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). US Wage - Price Dynamics, Before, During and After COVID-19, Through the lens of an Empirical Econometric Model. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Exchange rate volatility and pattern wage bargaining. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sali, Bilal (2024). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy; COVID-19 in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Pattern wage bargaining, exchange rate volatility and inflation persistence. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Valutakursens gang gjennom lønnsdannelsen---presentasjon for det tekniske beregningsutvalget for inntektsoppgjørene. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Elin, Svarstad (2024). Den norske arbeidslivsmodellen---dengang og nå. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Model invariance and constancy in the face of large shocks to the Norwegian macroeconomic system-2024 orientering (NFR, nr 324472). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Valutakursens gang gjennom lønnsdannelsen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2023). Det norske systemet for lønnsdannelse og <<likevektsledighet>>. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2023). Det norske systemet for å sette riktig lønn for landet. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2023). Dynamic Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Eva Victoria (2022). Anslagene for smitteutviklingen kan bli sikrere. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Economic Covid-19 effects analysed by macro econometric models. The Case of Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Model invariance and constancy in the face of large shocks to the Norwegian macroeconomic system (NFR, nr 324472). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2022). Time series estimation and forecasting of Covid in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Haavelmos makromodell: endogene konjunkturer og kriser. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2021). Den norske lønnsforhandlingsmodellen. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 135(2), s. 5–7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2020). Mulighetene for brå endring i den økonomiske aktivitet, med og uten "lock-down". Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 134(4), s. 5–7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Dapi, Bjorn; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement: Evidence from wage data for natives. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Norway experienced a high immigration flow after the EEA directive in 2004 stating workers right to free movement within the European Union and EEA-countries. There is no clear consensus in the literature on how immigration affects native wages, but some studies using Norwegian micro data have estimated a negative effect of higher immigration for some type of workers. In this paper, to capture that the wage setting is highly coordinated in Norway, we model a system of native wages for three sectors; manufacturing, private service industries and public sector. We estimate that labour immigration has had a negative effect on the attainable wage growth for natives in all three sectors,but that the largest and most direct impact on wages has been in the private service industries. Immigration is found to be exogenous with respect to the parameters of our model of wage formation.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). DSGE models and the violation of the law of entropy. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Haraldsen, Kristine Wika; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The average employment rate for the OECD countries was close to 63 percent in the period 2000-2015 but there is considerable variation within and between countries. We find that a dynamic model for employment, derived from a multiple equation macro model with institutional and population variables, can explain much of the development. The estimated models capture the dynamics well and they imply interpretable estimates of the normal employment rate level, conditional on the state of the institutional variables in 2015. The estimated normal employment rate is 2 percentage points higher when shocks are included in the model, implying that shocks have persistent effects. Regulations of the labour market are important for the effect of shocks. Regulated labour markets amplify positive shocks while negative shocks are dampened compared to less regulated labour markets. In the estimation of the models, we use standard panel data estimators, as well as a version of the within-group estimator which is robust to structural breaks in the means. Empirically we find that some of the estimated coefficients of the institutional variables are robust with respect to the breaks, while others are not. We find that the interaction effect between benefit replacement ratio and benefit duration is robust, and that is can significantly affect the employment rate. This result implies that changes in replacement ratios (or duration) may be expected to have larger impacts in countries where duration (or replacement ratio) is long compared to countries characterized by short duration (or replacement ratio).

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2018). Kommentar til: Like konkurransevilkår for offentlige og private aktører. Rapport fra arbeidsgruppe, levert Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet 23. januar 2018. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Alle veit jo det. Mytespinn om Phillipskurven. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. s. 40–43. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Følgerfagenes rolle i lønnsdannelsen i Norge. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Long history wage modelling. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Lønnssystemets skyld, ikke frihandel. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. s. 31–31. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Norwegian wage formation since independence. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Følgerfagenes rolle i systemet for lønnsdannelse. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Innledning om konjunkturene og noen mer langsiktige utfordringer. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). The Pros and Cons of Model Based Macroeconomic Forecasting. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). NAM-prognoser januar 2016. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Arbeidslivsregulering og inntektspolitikk i UK, 1900-1979. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Maktforhold avgjør lønnsveksten. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Norwegian Wages Since Independence. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). NAM: Norwegian Aggregate Model; og: Om store prognosefeil. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Did US households Save for a Rainy Day Before the Great Recession? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Wage system: Have inflation targeting and EU labour immigration changed the system of wage formation in Norway? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Maktforhold avgjør lønnsveksten. s. 40–40. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). En økonometrisk analyse av næringstall. I Bjørnstad, Roger (Red.), Virkninger av allmenngjøring av tariffavtaler. En evaluering av allmengjøringsordningens virkninger på lønn, sysselsetting og arbeidsmarkedets virkemåte.. Senter for lønnsdannelse. ISSN 9788293320234. s. 93–112. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Flere våpen mot dårlige tider? s. 30–30. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). The Norwegian System of Wage Formation. A Macro Perspective. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  An important application in the real options literature has been to investments in the oil sector. Two commonly applied “stylized facts” in such applications are tested here. One is that the correlation of the returns on oil and the stock market is positive, the other that it is invariant to changes in oil price volatility. Both are rejected in data for 1993–2008 for crude oil and the S&P 500 stock market index. Based on real options theory, consequences are pointed out. Higher volatility need not imply increased value and postponed investment.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Frontfagsmodellen i fortid og framtid. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Lønn og lønnsfordeling. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Anundsen, Andre Kallåk (2014). Did US consumers save for a rainy day before the Great Recession? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Tannløst reallønnsgap. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2013). A theoretical and empirical analysis of invariance assumptions in comparative statics for real options on oil. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2013). Når ledigheten styrer. s. 34–34. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bjørnstad, Roger. (2013). Frontfagmodellens utfordringer. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Makroøkonomiske prognoser 2013-2016. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Makroøkonomiske prognosemodeller: Teori, metode og anvendelse. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Lønnsdannelsen og makrostabilitet. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Bårdsen, Gunnar & Kolsrud, Dag Olaf (2012). Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Lønnsdannelsessystemet i Norge. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Holm, Martin B. (2026). Essays on Fiscal Policy. Universitetet i Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This thesis examines how fiscal policy shapes labour supply, local economic activity and aggregate fluctuations in Norway. It brings together three empirical papers that analyse the effects of income taxation, intergovernmental transfers and pandemic containment policies using rich administrative and national accounts data and dynamic econometric methods. The first paper studies long-run responses of labour income and taxable income to permanent changes in the income tax schedule. Exploiting a series of legislated tax reforms between 1994 and 2019 and using a local projection IV framework, it estimates dynamic elasticities and decomposes them into income and substitution effects. The results point to a sizeable negative long-run response of taxable income to an increase in net-of-tax income, driven by strong income effects and modest substitution effects, with substantial heterogeneity across the consumption distribution. The findings are consistent with non-homothetic preferences of the Boppart–Krusell-type and have direct implications for optimal income tax design. The second paper investigates local permanent fiscal multipliers. Using variation in permanent central-government transfers to municipalities, combined with municipal accounts and firm-level balance-sheet data, it estimates the long-run impact of transfers on local value added and employment. On average, one additional krone of transfers raises local value added by more than one krone, but multipliers are much larger in municipalities where households spend a high share of their consumption locally, highlighting the importance of import leakages and local market structure. The third paper develops a daily econometric model of the joint evolution of public health and economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. By combining “dailylised” GDP with high-frequency health indicators, policy measures and an awareness proxy, it shows that both containment policies and voluntary behavioural responses had large but time-varying effects on economic activity, with the economic costs declining as agents adapted and vaccination reduced disease severity. Together, the three papers provide new evidence on how taxes, transfers and health policies propagate through the economy in normal times and crises.

• Harildstad, Anders; Nymoen, Ragnar & Slettebø, Olav Haldorsson (2026). From Manufacturing Productivity to National Wages: The Main-Course Variable and Norwegian Wage Formation, 1900–2025. University of Oslo Department of Economics. doi: https:/www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/publications/memoranda/2026/from-manufacturing-productivity-to-national-wages. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil C. & Nymoen, Ragnar (2024). Pris- og lønnsdannelsens betydning for pengepolitikken ved et utenlandsk inflasjonssjokk. Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse AS. ISSN 9788283952179. doi: https:/samfunnsokonomisk-analyse.no/publikasjoner/pris-og-lonnsdannelsens-betydning-for-pengepolitikken-ved-et-utenlandsk-inflasjonssjokk. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Nymoen, Ragnar; Røtnes, Rolf A. & Kordt, Amund H. (2020). Virkninger av redusert normalarbeidstid på norsk økonomi. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283950779. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen & Nymoen, Ragnar (2020). En utvidet simuleringsmodell for lønnsdannelsen. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283950717. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Dapi, Bjorn; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement. Evidence from wage data for natives. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Norway experienced a high immigration flow after the EEA directive in 2004 stating workers right to free movement within the European Union and EEA-countries. There is no clear consensus in the literature on how immigration affects native wages, but some studies using Norwegian micro data have estimated a negative effect of higher immigration for some type of workers. In this paper, to capture that the wage setting is highly coordinated in Norway, we model a system of native wages for three sectors; manufacturing, private service industries and public sector. We estimate that labour immigration has had a negative effect on the attainable wage growth for natives in all three sectors, but that the largest and most direct impact on wages has been in the private service industries. Immigration is found to be exogenous with respect to the parameters of our model of wage formation.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Dalnoki, Simon; Eggen, Fernanda Winger & Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Hvordan bør sentrale mekanismer i Den norske modellen reflekteres i makroøkonomiske modeller? Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse AS. ISSN 9788283950403. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Eggen, Fernanda Winger; Gottschalk, Petter; Nymoen, Ragnar; Ognedal, Tone & Rybalka, Marina (2017). Analyse av former, omfang og utvikling av arbeidskriminalitet. Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse. ISSN 9788293320821. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bjørnstad, Roger; Gran, Bjørn; Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo & Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Pengepolitikk med sterkt koordinert lønnsdannelse. Fafo. ISSN 9788293320715. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Jordfall, Bård (2016). Hva skjer nederst i lønnsfordelingen i privat sektor? Fafo. ISSN 9788293320623. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Kostøl, Fredrik (2016). Framskrivning av valutakurs i samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788293320340. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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