Ragnar Nymoen

• “Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage Price Dynamics”, with M. Gjelsvik and V. Sparrman, Econometrics, 2020, 8, 1-29
• Dynamic Econometrics for Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling, World Scientific, 2019
• Testing the Empirical Relevance of the `Saving for a Rainy Day’ hypothesis in US Metro Areas, with  A. K. Anundsen, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2019, 81 (6) 1318-1335. doi: 10.1111/obes.12310
• Between institutions and Global forces. Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation. Econometrics 2017, 5(1), 6; doi:10.3390/econometrics5010006
• Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries, with Victoria Sparrman. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2015, 77, 164-190 2015.
• Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation, with Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik and David F. Hendry, Econometric Reviews, 2014, 33:5-6, 553-574
• Q. Farooq Akram and Ragnar Nymoen, "Model selection for monetary policy analysis-How important is empirical validity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Vol 1, 2009, 35-68
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Macroeconometric modeling for policy," Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Vol 2, 2009
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics, Oxford University Press, 2009
• Solveig Erlandsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Consumption and population age structure," Journal of Population Economics 21(3), 2008, 505-520
• Gunnar Bårdsen,Eilev S. Jansen, Øyvind Eitrheim and Ragnar Nymoen, "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," Oxford: Oxford University Press 2005. (338 pages)
• Gunnar Bårdsen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Testing steady-state implications for the NAIRU," in Review of Economics and Statistics 85(4), 2003, 1070-1075
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Econometric evaluation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 66(suppl 1), 2004, 671-686
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Eilev S. Jansen and Ragnar Nymoen, "Econometric inflation targeting," Econometrics Journal 6, 2003, 429-460
• Gunnar Bårdsen, Paul F. Fisher and Ragnar Nymoen, "Business cycles: Real facts or fallacies?" s. 499-527 in Steinar Strøm (edt.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1998
• Steinar Holden and Ragnar Nymoen, "Measuring structural unemployment: NAWRU estimates in the Nordic countries," in Scandinavian Journal of Economics 104(1), 2002, 87-104

• Nymoen, Ragnar; Sparrman, Victoria & Gjelsvik, Marit (2020). Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics. Econometrics. ISSN 2225-1146. 8(3). doi: 10.3390/econometrics8030029.
• Anundsen, André Kallåk & Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Testing the empirical relevance of the "saving for a rainy day" hypothesis in US metro areas. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 81(6), p. 1318–1335. doi: 10.1111/obes.12310.
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Pedersen, Kari & Sjåberg, Jon Ivar (2019). Estimation of Effects of Recent Macroprudential Policies in a Sample of Advanced Open Economies. International Journal of Financial Studies (IJFS). ISSN 2227-7072. 7(2). doi: 10.3390/ijfs7020023. Full text in Research Archive
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2018). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts? The Engineering Economist. ISSN 0013-791X. 63(1), p. 54–65. doi: 10.1080/0013791X.2017.1283001. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  An important application in the real options literature has been to investments in the oil sector. Two commonly applied "stylized facts" in such applications are tested here. One is that the correlation of the returns on oil and the stock market is positive, the other that it is invariant to changes in oil price volatility. Both are rejected in data for 1993-2008 for crude oil and the S&P 500 stock market index. Based on real options theory, consequences are pointed out. A widespread idea, that higher volatility leads to increased value and postponed investment, is not necessarily valid.

• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kolsrud, Dag & Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Forecast Robustness in Macroeconometric Models. Journal of Forecasting. ISSN 0277-6693. 36(6), p. 629–639. doi: 10.1002/for.2459. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper investigates potential invariance of mean forecast errors to structural breaks in the data generating process. From the general forecasting literature, such robustness is expected to be a rare occurrence. With the aid of a stylized macro model we are able to identify some economically relevant cases of robustness and to interpret them economically. We give an interpretation in terms of co-breaking. The analytical results resound well with the forecasting record of a medium-scale econometric model of the Norwegian economy.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation. Econometrics. ISSN 2225-1146. 5(1). doi: 10.3390/econometrics5010006. Full text in Research Archive
• Kolsrud, Dag & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Heuristic vs formal dynamics of the wage- and price-curve model of equilibrium unemployment. Journal of economic studies. ISSN 0144-3585. 42(2), p. 186–206. doi: 10.1108/JES-05-2013-0074.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2015). Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 77(2), p. 164–190. doi: 10.1111/obes.12061.
• Kolsrud, Dag Olaf & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage Price Spiral. Australian Economic Papers. ISSN 0004-900X. 53(1-2), p. 41–68. doi: 10.1111/1467-8454.12020.
• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord S.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Vislie, Jon (2014). Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve haavelmo's business cycle model. Metroeconomica. ISSN 0026-1386. 65(3), p. 460–486. doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.
• Castle, Jennifer L.; Doornik, Jurgen; Hendry, David F. & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Misspecification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation. Econometric Reviews. ISSN 0747-4938. 33(5-6), p. 553–574. doi: 10.1080/07474938.2013.825137.
• Kornstad, Tom; Nymoen, Ragnar & Skjerpen, Terje (2013). Macroeconomic shocks and the probability of being employed. Economic Modelling. ISSN 0264-9993. 33, p. 572–587. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.022.
• Vislie, Jon; Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord Sigurd Holmsen & Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). The Macroeconomics of Trygve Haavelmo. Nordic Journal of Political Economy. ISSN 0805-7508. 37, p. 1–26.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; den Reijer, Ard; Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden. Economic Modelling. ISSN 0264-9993. 29(6), p. 2566–2582. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.08.007. Show summary

  MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for policy simulations and short-term forecasting. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and forecast evaluations are presented. We also address methodology and practical issues relating to building and maintaining a macro model of this type.

• Nymoen, Ragnar; Swensen, Anders Rygh & Tveter, Eivind (2012). Interpreting the evidence for New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Journal of macroeconomics. ISSN 0164-0704. 34(2), p. 253–263. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.01.008.
• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord Sigurd Holmsen; Nymoen, Ragnar & Vislie, Jon (2011). Haavelmos makromodeller: Endogene konjunkturer og inflasjonsteori. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 125(9), p. 32–43.
• Falch, Nina Skrove & Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). The Accuracy of a Forecast Targeting Central Bank. Economics. ISSN 1864-6042. 5(15), p. 1–36. doi: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2011-15. Show summary

  This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both ’naive’ forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside the central bank. We find that the superiority of the bank’s forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent econometric model. The 1-step Monetary Policy Report forecasts are preferable to the 1-step forecasts from the outside model, but for the policy relevant horizons (e.g., 4 quarters ahead), the forecasts from the outsider model are preferred with a wider margin. An explanation in terms of too high speed of adjustment to the inflation target is supported by the evidence. Norges Bank’s forecasts are better than the ‘naive’ forecasts. Norwegian inflation appears to be predictable, despite the reduction in inflation persistence that has taken place over the last two decades.

• Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Krogh, Tord Sigurd Holmsen; Nymoen, Ragnar & Vislie, Jon (2011). Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo’s business cycle model and its implications for monetary policy. Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo. ISSN 0809-8786. doi: 10.1111/meca.12049.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). US Natural Rate Dynamics Reconsidered. In Castle, Jennifer L. & Shephard, Neil (Ed.), The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. Oxford University Press. ISSN 978-0-19-923719-7. p. 386–411.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2009). Macroeconometric Modeling for Policy. In Mills, Terence C. & Patterson, Kerry (Ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics Volume 2: Applied Econometrics. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9781403917997. p. 821–951.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered, The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780199237197. p. 386–411.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Macroeconometric modelling for policy, Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics vol. 2. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9781403917997. p. 851–916.
• Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ISSN 0305-9049. 71(1), p. 35–68. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00516.x.
• Bjørnstad, Roger.; Cappelen, Ådne & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Inflasjonsforventninger og pengepolitiske regimer. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 63(2), p. 17–29.
• Erlandsen, Solveig & Nymoen, Ragnar (2008). Consumption and population age structure. Journal of Population Economics. ISSN 0933-1433. 21(3), p. 505–520. doi: 10.1007/s00148-006-0088-5.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bjørnstad, Roger. (2008). The New Keynesian Phillips Curve Tested on OECD Panel Data. Economics. ISSN 1864-6042. 2(23).

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• Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Dynamic Econometrics for Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling. World Scientific. ISBN 9789811207518. 567 p.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2014). Videregående emner i økonometri. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 978-82-450-1213-2. 362 p.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). Innføring i økonometri. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 978-82-450-0100-6. 294 p.

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• Nymoen, Ragnar (2020). Mulighetene for brå endring i den økonomiske aktivitet, med og uten "lock-down". Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 134(4), p. 5–7.
• Dapi, Bjorn; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement: Evidence from wage data for natives. Discussion papers. ISSN 1892-753X. Show summary

  Norway experienced a high immigration flow after the EEA directive in 2004 stating workers right to free movement within the European Union and EEA-countries. There is no clear consensus in the literature on how immigration affects native wages, but some studies using Norwegian micro data have estimated a negative effect of higher immigration for some type of workers. In this paper, to capture that the wage setting is highly coordinated in Norway, we model a system of native wages for three sectors; manufacturing, private service industries and public sector. We estimate that labour immigration has had a negative effect on the attainable wage growth for natives in all three sectors,but that the largest and most direct impact on wages has been in the private service industries. Immigration is found to be exogenous with respect to the parameters of our model of wage formation.

• Haraldsen, Kristine Wika; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Labour market institutions, shocks and the employment rate . Discussion papers. ISSN 1892-753X.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). DSGE models and the violation of the law of entropy.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2018). Kommentar til: Like konkurransevilkår for offentlige og private aktører. Rapport fra arbeidsgruppe, levert Nærings- og fiskeridepartementet 23. januar 2018.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Alle veit jo det. Mytespinn om Phillipskurven. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. p. 40–43.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Long history wage modelling.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Følgerfagenes rolle i lønnsdannelsen i Norge.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Norwegian wage formation since independence.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Lønnssystemets skyld, ikke frihandel. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. p. 31–31.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Følgerfagenes rolle i systemet for lønnsdannelse .
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Innledning om konjunkturene og noen mer langsiktige utfordringer.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). NAM-prognoser januar 2016.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). Arbeidslivsregulering og inntektspolitikk i UK, 1900-1979.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2016). The Pros and Cons of Model Based Macroeconomic Forecasting.
• Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Maktforhold avgjør lønnsveksten. Dagens Næringsliv.
• Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). En økonometrisk analyse av næringstall. In Bjørnstad, Roger (Eds.), Virkninger av allmenngjøring av tariffavtaler. En evaluering av allmengjøringsordningens virkninger på lønn, sysselsetting og arbeidsmarkedets virkemåte.. Senter for lønnsdannelse. ISSN 9788293320234. p. 93–112.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Norwegian Wages Since Independence.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Wage system: Have inflation targeting and EU labour immigration changed the system of wage formation in Norway?
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). NAM: Norwegian Aggregate Model; og: Om store prognosefeil.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Lønn og lønnsfordeling.
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use? Show summary

  An important application in the real options literature has been to investments in the oil sector. Two commonly applied “stylized facts” in such applications are tested here. One is that the correlation of the returns on oil and the stock market is positive, the other that it is invariant to changes in oil price volatility. Both are rejected in data for 1993–2008 for crude oil and the S&P 500 stock market index. Based on real options theory, consequences are pointed out. Higher volatility need not imply increased value and postponed investment.

• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). The Norwegian System of Wage Formation. A Macro Perspective.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Flere våpen mot dårlige tider? Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. p. 30–30.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Maktforhold avgjør lønnsveksten. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. p. 40–40.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Did US households Save for a Rainy Day Before the Great Recession?
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2015). Frontfagsmodellen i fortid og framtid.
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Comparative statics for real options on oil: What stylized facts to use?
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Anundsen, Andre Kallåk (2014). Did US consumers save for a rainy day before the Great Recession?
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2014). Tannløst reallønnsgap. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bjørnstad, Roger. (2013). Frontfagmodellens utfordringer. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2013). Når ledigheten styrer. Dagens næringsliv. ISSN 0803-9372. p. 34–34.
• Lund, Diderik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2013). A theoretical and empirical analysis of invariance assumptions in comparative statics for real options on oil.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Lønnsdannelsessystemet i Norge.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Makroøkonomiske prognosemodeller: Teori, metode og anvendelse.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Makroøkonomiske prognoser 2013-2016.
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Bårdsen, Gunnar & Kolsrud, Dag Olaf (2012). Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2012). Lønnsdannelsen og makrostabilitet.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). Nobelprisen til Sargent og Sims.
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Bårdsen, Gunnar & Kolsrud, Dag Olaf (2011). Forecast robustness in macroeconomic models.
• Nymoen, Ragnar; Kornstad, Tom & Skjerpen, Terje (2011). Job Probability and Macroeconomic Shocks.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). Lønnsdanningen i Norge. Hovedtrekk og betydning for måloppnåelse om høy sysselsetting.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). Svak internasjonal inntektsutvikling: Konsekvenser for norsk økonomi og lønnsdannelse i 2012.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). Svak internasjonal inntektsutvikling: Konsekvenser for norsk økonomi i 2012.
• Krogh, Tord Sigurd Holmsen; Anundsen, Andre Kallåk; Nymoen, Ragnar & Vislie, Jon (2011). Overdeterminacy and endogenous cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's business cycle model. Presentasjon på forskningsseminar i Statistisk Sentralbyrå.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2010). Norges Bank tilbake til responsfunksjonen? Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2010). En oljeprisforklart børs. Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2010). Makroøkonomiske prognoser.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2010). Økonomene spår - økonomien rår. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 64(3), p. 50–51.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Makroøkonomisk teori: Krisen viser (ir)relevansen. Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Krisen og likevektsledigheten. Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Finanskrisen----så langt. Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Om relevansen av en kvantitetslikning for norsk inflasjon. Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar (2009). Samfunnsøkonomenes prognosepris 2009. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. p. 20–25.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2008). Midlertidig ute av drift? Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Nymoen, Ragnar (2008). "Et overbestemt system". Finansavisen. ISSN 0803-9518.
• Bjørnstad, Roger. & Nymoen, Ragnar (2008). Modellvalget er viktig for pengepolitikken. Svar til Holmsen, Nicolaisen og Røisland. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 62(1), p. 6–9.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Skrove Falch, Nina (2008). Samfunnsøkonomenes prognosepris 2008. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 62(8), p. 4–9.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Skrove Falch, Nina (2007). Samfunnsøkonomenes prognosepris 2007. Økonomisk forum. ISSN 1502-6108. 61(7), p. 34–38.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Bjørnstad, Roger. (2007). Den norske modellen for lønnsdannelse: Enda viktigere etter ny politikk. Økonomisk forum. ISSN 1502-6108. 61(7), p. 4–13.
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Kordt, Amund; Nymoen, Ragnar & Røtnes, Rolf A. (2020). Virkninger av redusert normalarbeidstid på norsk økonomi . Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 978-82-8395-077-9. Rapport(11-2020).
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen & Nymoen, Ragnar (2020). En utvidet simuleringsmodell for lønnsdannelsen. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 978-82-8395-071-7. Rapport(5-2020).
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Dalnoki, Simon; Eggen, Fernanda Winger & Nymoen, Ragnar (2019). Hvordan bør sentrale mekanismer i Den norske modellen reflekteres i makroøkonomiske modeller? Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse AS. ISSN 978-82-8395-040-3.
• Dapi, Bjorn; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria (2019). Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement. Evidence from wage data for natives. Department of Economics. University of Oslo. ISSN 0809-8786.
• Bjørnstad, Roger; Gran, Bjørn; Bakkemo Kostøl, Fredrik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2017). Pengepolitikk med sterkt koordinert lønnsdannelse. Senter for lønnsdannelse v/Fafo og Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 978-82-93320-71-5.
• Eggen, Fernanda Winger; Gottschalk, Petter; Nymoen, Ragnar; Ognedal, Tone & Rybalka, Marina (2017). Analyse av former, omfang og utvikling av arbeidskriminalitet. Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse. ISSN 978-82-93320-82-1.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Kostøl, Fredrik (2016). Framskrivning av valutakurs i samfunnsøkonomiske analyser. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 978-82-93320-34-0.
• Nymoen, Ragnar & Jordfall, Bård (2016). Hva skjer nederst i lønnsfordelingen i privat sektor? Senter for lønnsdannelse, FAFO og Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 978-82-93320-62-3.
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; den Reijer, Ard; Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar (2011). MOSES: Model of Swedish Economic Studies. Sveriges Riksbank. Show summary

  MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for short-term forecasting and policy simulations. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and examples of dynamic simulation (model forecasts) for the period 2009q2-2012q4 are presented. We address practicalissues relating to operational use and maintenance of a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in an appendix.

• Nymoen, Ragnar; Castle, Jennifer L.; Doornik, Jurgen & Hendry, David F. (2010). Testing the Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation. Department of Economics University of Oslo. Show summary

  The new-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) includes expected future inflation as a major feedforward variable to explain current inflation. Models of this type are regularly estimated by replacing the expected value by the actual future outcome, then using Instrumental Variables or Generalized Method of Moments methods to estimate the parameters. However, the underlying theory does not allow for various forms of non-stationarity in the data–despite the fact that crises, breaks and regimes shifts are relatively common. We investigate the consequences for NKPC estimation of breaks in data processes using the new technique of impulse-indicator saturation, and apply the resulting methods to salient published studies to check their viability.

• Nymoen, Ragnar & Kolsrud, Dag Olaf (2010). Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-price Spiral. Department of Economics University of Oslo. Show summary

  We derive aggregate supply (AS) relationships for an intermediate-run macro model. The wage-price spiral provides the conceptual framework for a synthesis of different contesting theoretical and empirical perspectives on the AS curve: the Phillips curve model (PCM) and the wage-price equilibrium correction model (WPECM). The generalized AS curve is grafted into a small macro model. We analyze stability conditions, steady states, and dynamic solutions, using a combination of algebra and simulations. The specification of the AS curve, as a PCM or a WPECM, is shown to be important for all aspects of the model’s solution, but within each model also the detailed parameterization is of qualitative importance. For example, endogenous cyclical fluctuations are typical for both nominal and real variables, e.g. inflation and unemployment.

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