Carl Henrik Knutsen

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). Land, Politics, and Development. Political science quarterly. ISSN 0032-3195. doi: 10.1093/psquar/qqag072. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lutscher, Philipp Matthias; Draege, Jonas Bergan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). The effects of government propaganda in electoral authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Turkey. European Journal of Political Research. ISSN 0304-4130. s. 1–24. doi: 10.1017/s1475676526100942. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Abstract Previous research conducted in closed autocracies indicates that government propaganda can deter opposition, shift political attitudes, and influence emotions. Yet the specific mechanisms and contextual factors influencing how and when propaganda works remain unclear. We theorize how power-projecting government propaganda works differently for government supporters and opponents in polarized electoral authoritarian regimes, focusing on emotional reactions, sense of societal belonging, and downstream effects on contentious political behavior. Through two preregistered surveys in Turkey ( N = 6,286), we find that supporters exposed to propaganda videos feel a greater sense of belonging and are more susceptible to engage in pro-government activities. Opponents report heightened anger and anxiety and seem deterred from protesting. However, the latter effect weakened during the highly contested 2023 electoral campaign. These results indicate that propaganda can help electoral authoritarian regimes deter anti-government action and encourage pro-government action, but that its deterrent effects may weaken during periods of high mobilization and contention.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). Successful liberal democracy as a self-reinforcing condition. Journal of European Public Policy. ISSN 1350-1763. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2026.2657997. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungblut, Jens; Weidmann, Nils B. & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). The politics behind political science: A cross-national perspective. European Political Science. ISSN 1680-4333. doi: 10.1017/s1682098326100241. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Political science concerns topics that can be highly relevant for politicians. Political science research and education offer insights that can help incumbents win elections or govern better. At the same time, the discipline provides knowledge that can be used to challenge politicians in office, for example, on how to organise mass protests or effective opposition parties. Therefore, politicians in power may have mixed feelings about the existence of political science departments. Some will encourage their establishment, while others – perhaps especially autocrats – may try to contain their presence or control their location. We study the existence and placement of political science units at universities across the world and assess the extent to which these features vary with regime type. Using large-N data on university subdivisions, we examine cross-national variation in existence and within-country variation in the location of political science departments. We find surprisingly few substantial differences along the democracy–autocracy continuum: Political science units, on average, are no more frequent in democracies. Across regime types, political science units are about equally likely to be located at public (versus private) institutions, and similarly likely to be placed at universities closer to the capital.

• Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2025). The State of Norwegian Democracy. I Kolltveit, Kristoffer; Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid & Rasch, Bjørn Erik (Red.), The Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780198888581. s. 173–192. doi: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198888581.013.0010. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Abstract Norway is a high-quality democracy, almost regardless of how democracy is conceptualized or operationalized. Yet, Norwegian democracy is far from perfect; it has room for improvement, and more so in some areas than in others. Our chapter overviews the historical development of democracy in Norway since 1814, before detailing the system’s current characteristics. Regarding the latter, we address the overall high quality of the system along several dimensions—notably the electoral, liberal, and deliberative dimensions of democracy—but also several democratic deficiencies. The latter are highlighted in a recent analysis of the state of Norwegian democracy, which we review in this chapter. Examples of democratic deficiencies are inequalities in both political influence and participation across different groups of citizens, lacking voting rights in parliamentary elections for the large (and growing) share of the population without citizenship, and limited autonomy for elected politicians in some policy areas.

• Andersen, David Delfs Erbo; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Skaaning, Svend-Erik (2025). Dimensions of State Capacity and Modes of Democratic Breakdown. Political Studies. ISSN 0032-3217. doi: 10.1177/00323217251344758. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Which dimensions of state capacity are most effective in safeguarding democracies from distinct modes of breakdown? This article theorizes and examines how two fundamental dimensions of state capacity—coercive and administrative—affect democratic stability differently depending on whether threats arise from incumbents or nonincumbents. Based on a global analysis covering democratic breakdowns from 1789 to 2020, we find that administrative capacity, characterized by meritocratic recruitment, impartial administration, and predictable enforcement, significantly reduces the risk of incumbent-led democratic breakdowns. In contrast, coercive capacity indicators, such as territorial control and military resources, do not robustly relate to either incumbent-led or nonincumbent-led breakdowns. Our study highlights the critical role of high-quality administrative institutions for democratic stability.

• Rodriguez, Adrian del Rio; Kim, Woseeok; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Neundorf, Anja; Paglayan, Agustina S. & Nazrullaeva, Eugenia (2025). Enhancing Transparency and Replicability in Data Collection: Lessons from the Construction of Three Education Datasets. Perspectives on Politics. ISSN 1537-5927. s. 18–18. doi: 10.1017/s1537592725103058. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Assembling datasets is crucial for advancing social science research, but researchers who construct datasets often face difficult decisions with little guidance. Once public, these datasets are sometimes used without proper consideration of their creators’ choices and how these affect the validity of inferences. To support both data creators and data users, we discuss the strengths, limitations, and implications of various data collection methodologies and strategies, showing how seemingly trivial methodological differences can significantly impact conclusions. The lessons we distill build on the process of constructing three cross-national datasets on education systems. Despite their common focus, these datasets differ in the dimensions they measure, as well as their definitions of key concepts, coding thresholds and other assumptions, types of coders, and sources. From these lessons, we develop and propose general guidelines for dataset creators and users aimed at enhancing transparency, replicability, and valid inferences in the social sciences.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahlum, Sirianne; Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Wig, Tore (2025). Who Rules? Support Coalitions and Regime Survival, 1789–2020. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. s. 1–37. doi: 10.1177/00104140251369338. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  All political regimes rely on coalitions of supporters to govern and remain in power. We discuss, specify, and test arguments pertaining to how the numerical size as well as social diversity of regime support coalitions influence regime longevity. We use recently collected data on support coalition characteristics, with global coverage and time series exceeding 230 years, and find that larger as well as more diverse regime support coalitions are positively related to regime longevity. Both patterns hold up in different time periods and in sub-samples including only autocratic regimes. We also discuss and find indications that increased coalition size may limit certain types of regime breakdown (e.g., from popular uprisings) but not others (e.g., coups). Coalition diversity is negatively related to different types of regime breakdown, and these patterns may reflect that diverse coalitions offer regimes access to variegated power resources that enable them to mitigate different threats.

• Nyrup, Jacob; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Langsæther, Peter Egge & Kristiansen, Ina Lyftingsmo (2025). Paths to Power: A New Dataset on the Social Profile of Governments. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 55. doi: 10.1017/s0007123425100598. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Systematized information on the background of policymakers across long time-periods and all geographical regions of the world remains limited. In this article, we introduce Paths to Power (PtP), a new dataset on the educational, occupational, and social background of cabinet members. PtP contains detailed individual-level data – whenever identifiable – on 44,789 cabinet members across 141 countries in the period 1966-2021. This comprehensive dataset will be of relevance to numerous scholars (and others) interested in understanding politics and recent political history, and it enables a wide variety of new, empirically founded insights. We first present how the data is created and then discuss data quality and limitations. Next, we show how PtP is useful for researchers in diverse fields, including comparative politics, political sociology, gender studies, public administration, and international relations.

• Dahl, Marianne; Dahlum, Sirianne; Fjelde, Hanne; Gjerløw, Haakon; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Strøm-Sedgwick, Carina [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Mass Mobilization in the Modern Era: Introducing the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) Dataset, 1789–2019. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. doi: 10.1177/00104140251369330. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The nature and consequences of mass mobilization are core topics in the social sciences. How have mass mobilization movements evolved over time? How do key characteristics of such movements, including their social composition or ideology, influence their ability to overthrow or alter political institutions? We introduce the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) dataset, which – due to its unique contents and extensive coverage – will help researchers to better address these and many other questions about mass mobilization movements. OMG includes information on the stated goals, duration, size, tactics, ideology, and social and organizational composition of 1452 mass mobilization movements, globally, from 1789 to 2019. We discuss OMG’s contents, construction, validity and reliability issues, and how it complements existing datasets. We showcase the data, first, by documenting several key trends in movement characteristics since the French Revolution, and, second, by shedding new light on the much-discussed relationship between nonviolent movements and democratization.

• Wig, Tore; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahlum, Sirianne & Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli (2025). Cui bono? business elites and interstate conflict. European Journal of International Relations. ISSN 1354-0661. 31(2), s. 280–310. doi: 10.1177/13540661251327116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We examine how regime support coalitions influence interstate conflict by revisiting the classic debate over the role of business elites in shaping states’ conflict behavior. While imperialist theories argue that business elites promote military expeditions to access new foreign markets, capitalist peace perspectives contend that these elites favor peace due to their economic interests. We reconcile these views by proposing that countries become more belligerent when business elites are part of their regime-support coalitions but only when their potential adversaries are not similarly supported by business elites. To test this argument, we use a novel dataset on the composition of regime support coalitions covering 200 polities over two centuries. Our findings indicate that regimes backed by business elites are more likely to initiate armed conflict but not against other countries with business-elite-supported regimes. In addition, we uncover that the aggressive tendencies of business-elite-supported regimes are moderated by pre-existing trade relationships. These results contribute to our understanding of how domestic elite groups shape international conflict, offering new insights into the interplay between economic interests and state behavior.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahlum, Sirianne; Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Wig, Tore (2025). Behind the Throne: Regime support coalitions around the world, 1789-2020. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 55, s. 1–23. doi: 10.1017/S0007123424000656. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  All regimes require supporters to govern and survive. We discuss the concept of a ‘regime support group’ and present and validate measures from an extensive dataset recording different features of such groups. This Regime Support and Opposition Groups (ReSOG) dataset covers approximately 2,000 political regimes from almost 200 countries, across 1789–2020. Drawing on the knowledge of about 1,000 country experts, we estimate the size and main geographical location of regime support coalitions and key opposition actors. We also map the social basis of regime support coalitions and opponents, using a 14-category scheme covering various social groups. These data provide a unique quantitative history of the social underpinnings of regimes in the modern era. Using them, we show and discuss the broadening of support coalitions over time, especially in autocracies, the rise of major urban groups, and the relative decline of rural elites in politics, globally

• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2025). Citizen Action and Elite Responses: Opposition Mass Movements and Regime Change From Within, 1900–2019. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 69(10), s. 1798–1826. doi: 10.1177/00220027251318938. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The mobilization of opposition mass movements may spur regime change via different processes, including popular revolutions or coups. We zoom in on one salient channel through which mass mobilization may induce regime change, namely via provoking incumbent responses. Synthesizing different arguments, we detail how incumbent elites sometimes preemptively alter the regime to diffuse threats by incumbent-guided democratization or by using opposition mobilization as windows of opportunity to transform the regime into one they prefer over the status quo (e.g., via self-coups). We combine data on opposition campaigns with detailed data on modes of regime breakdown and find that, overall, sustained mass movements are clearly associated with subsequent incumbent-led transitions. When disaggregating, violent movements typically precede only non-liberalizing transitions. In contrast, nonviolent movements are associated with all incumbent-led transitions, including democratizing ones. Thus, nonviolence is a key component in many successful campaigns for democracy, also absent full-fledged revolutions.

• Rodriguez, Adrian del Rio; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Lutscher, Philipp Matthias (2024). Education Policies and Systems Across Modern History: A Global Dataset. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. doi: 10.1177/00104140241252075. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et al. 2000). Little and Meng (L&M) (2023) reintroduce this debate, arguing that “objective” measures of democracy show little evidence of recent global democratic backsliding.1 By extension, they posit that time-varying expert bias drives the appearance of democratic retrenchment in measures that incorporate expert judgments. In this article, we engage with (1) broader debates on democracy measurement and democratic backsliding, and (2) L&M’s specific data and conclusions.

• Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2024). Laying Down The Principles: How Local Socialist Achievements Spurred National Bourgeois Support for Noncontributory Pensions. World Politics. ISSN 0043-8871. 76(1), s. 172–217. doi: 10.1353/wp.2024.a916344. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Teorell, Jan (2024). Development and decline of democracies: the role of institutional factors. I Vatter, Adrian & Freiburghaus, Rahel (Red.), Handbook of Comparative Political Institutions. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781803929088. doi: 10.4337/9781803929095.00033. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Marquardt, Kyle Lohse; Seim, Brigitte; Coppedge, Michael; Edgell, Amanda & Medzihorsky, Juraj [Vis alle 10 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science and Politics. ISSN 1049-0965. 57(2), s. 162–177. doi: 10.1017/S104909652300077X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et al. 2000). Little and Meng (L&M) (2023) reintroduce this debate, arguing that “objective” measures of democracy show little evidence of recent global democratic backsliding.1 By extension, they posit that time-varying expert bias drives the appearance of democratic retrenchment in measures that incorporate expert judgments. In this article, we engage with (1) broader debates on democracy measurement and democratic backsliding, and (2) L&M’s specific data and conclusions.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Skaaning, Svend-Erik (2024). Economic development and autocratization. I Croissant, Aurel & Tomini, Luca (Red.), The Routledge Handbook of Autocratization. Routledge. ISSN 9781032308333. doi: 10.4324/9781003306900-8. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vesco, Paola; Baliki, Ghassan; Brück, Tilman; Döring, Stefan; Eriksson, Anneli & Fjelde, Hanne [Vis alle 19 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 187. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106806. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The detrimental impacts of wars on human development are well documented across research domains, from public health to micro-economics. However, these impacts are studied in compartmentalized silos, which limits a comprehensive understanding of the consequences of conflicts, hampering our ability to effectively sustain human development. This article takes a first step in addressing this gap by reviewing the literature on conflict impacts through the lens of an inter-disciplinary theoretical framework. We review the literature on the consequences of conflicts across 9 dimensions of human development: health, schooling, livelihood and income, growth and investments, political institutions, migration and displacement, socio-psychological wellbeing and capital, water access, and food security. The study focuses on both direct and indirect impacts of violence, reviews the existing evidence on how impacts on different dimensions of societal wellbeing and development may intertwine, and suggests plausible mechanisms to explain how these connections materialize. This exercise leads to the identification of critical research gaps and reveals that systematic empirical testing of how the impacts of war spread across sectors is severely lacking. By streamlining the literature on the impacts of war across multiple domains, this review represents a first step to build a common language that can overcome disciplinary silos and achieve a deeper understanding of how the effects of war reverberate across society. This multidisciplinary understanding of conflict impacts may eventually help to reconcile divergent estimates and enable forward-looking policies that minimize the costs of war.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Kolvani, Palina (2024). Fighting the Disease or Manipulating the Data? Democracy, State Capacity, and the COVID-19 Pandemic. World Politics. ISSN 0043-8871. 76(3), s. 543–593. doi: 10.1353/wp.2024.a933071. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, the authors discuss and analyze how regime type and state capacity shape the abilities and incentives of political leaders to respond to covid-19. They suggest that a complementary relationship exists between democracy and state capacity, both in terms of mitigating the adverse consequences of the pandemic, such as deaths, and the honest reporting of these consequences. Using a recent global data set on officially reported covid-19 deaths and estimated deaths based on excess mortality, the authors present evidence that supports different implications from their argument. Empirically, democracies have much higher officially reported death tolls than do autocracies, a result driven by underreporting in autocracies. In high-capacity states, democracies have fewer covid-19 deaths than do autocracies. State capacity generally seems to mitigate both deaths and underreporting, but these relationships are stronger in democracies. Countries that combine democracy with high state capacity experience fewer covid-19 deaths and provide more accurate tolls of the pandemic’s consequences.

• Langsæther, Peter Egge & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2024). Are women more progressive than men? Attitudinal gender gaps in West European democracies. International Political Science Review. ISSN 0192-5121. doi: 10.1177/01925121241280069. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We assess gender gaps in attitudes to several important and distinct policy areas, including economic left–right issues, gender equality, immigration, environmentalism and traditional ‘moral issues’. Drawing on comprehensive survey data from 14 established democracies in Western Europe, we document that women have more progressive attitudes than men do on all the five attitudinal dimensions that we consider. These patterns are similar (albeit not identical) across West European countries, despite cross-country differences in political cultures and systems. We also elaborate on potential implications of our findings for other political outcomes of interest, including voting behaviour and the functioning of representative democracy, and point to avenues for future research in detailing the mechanisms that contribute to the observed gender gaps.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Morgenbesser, Lee & Wig, Tore (2024). On the move: Autocratic leaders, security, and capital relocations. Political Geography. ISSN 0962-6298. 113. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2024.103154. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Why do some countries make the costly decision to relocate their capital city? Existing research offers four general explanations for this momentous action: administrative functionality, economic development, environmental degradation, and national integration. We offer a less sanguine, political explanation: capital relocations offer autocratic leaders a way to mitigate different security threats, including coups, popular protests, and foreign interventions. Using original data on capital relocations in 202 polities after 1789, we test several implications of our argument, at different levels of analysis. First, we show that autocracies are much more likely to relocate their capitals than democracies. Second, using different indicators of internal and external threats, we find that autocracies more likely relocate their capitals when breakdown is looming. Third, running subnational analyses, we find evidence that capitals are relocated to smaller cities and areas less susceptible to urban development.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). En tilstandsanalyse av det norske demokratiet. I Graver, Hans Petter; Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth & Havelin, Gro (Red.), Hvor går demokratiet?. Dreyer Forlag A/S. ISSN 9788282656702. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). Economic crisis and regime transitions from within. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. doi: 10.1177/00223433221145556. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We study how economic crises relate to the likelihood of experiencing regime changes ‘from within’; that is, transitions brought about, in part or fully, by actors in the incumbent regime. While historically common and influencing the political trajectories of many countries, such processes are far less studied than regime transitions forced by non-incumbent actors, such as coups or revolutions. We synthesize previous arguments and further specify how crises can incentivize leaders to change the regime from within due to two mechanisms. First, crises create windows of opportunity for leaders to pursue transitions they inherently prefer, for instance through self-coup. Second, crises sometimes allow opposition actors to mobilize and threaten the regime, forcing incumbents to liberalize. We leverage new data on timing and mode of regime change for more than 2000 regimes from about 200 countries, during the period 1789–2018. Employing different measurement strategies, estimators, control variables and other specification choices, we find fairly robust evidence that economic crises are related to transitions from within. However, when we distinguish between liberalizing and non-liberalizing guided transitions, we only find that economic crises systematically relate to the latter, suggesting that the window of opportunity mechanism may be especially pertinent in many contexts.

• Rygh, Asmund & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). Does state ownership mitigate political risk in foreign direct investments? Evidence from subsidiary-level data for Norwegian MNEs. Multinational Business Review. ISSN 1525-383X. doi: 10.1108/MBR-08-2022-0117. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). How Economic Systems and Performance Influence Regime Change, The Routledge Handbook of Comparative Economic Systems. Routledge. ISSN 9781003144366. doi: 10.4324/9781003144366. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Coppedge, Michael; Edgell, Amanda B.; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Lindberg, Staffan I. (2022). Causal Sequences in Long-Term Democratic Development and Decline, Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9781316514412. s. 215–261. doi: 10.1017/9781009086974.008. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This chapter summarizes the explanations developed in preceding chapters, fits them into a more comprehensive theoretical framework, and tests them using path analysis, which helps researchers understand causal sequences. Democratization is characterized by punctuated equilibrium. Distant historical factors such as geography and demographic characteristics, together with incrementally changing aspects of social and economic development, affect a country’s level of democracy, but only roughly. Institutions and organizations such as a healthy civil society, the rule of law, and institutionalized political parties, tend to reinforce one another and keep each country’s level of electoral democracy close to an equilibrium or set point. However, short-term economic performance, anti-system movements, and opposition campaigns can sometimes disturb the equilibrium, making significant upturns and downturns possible.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Dahlum, Sirianne (2022). Economic Determinants, Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9781316514412. s. 119–160. doi: 10.1017/9781009086974.005. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Several prominent debates on causes of democratization or democratic decline, concern different features of the economy. Yet, many of these debates lack in robust, conclusive evidence. We revisit the links between various economic factors and (electoral) democracy, drawing on global data extending from 1789 to 2018. First, we consider how economic development influences democracy, and democratic upturns and downturns more specifically. Second, we consider structural features of the economy related to types of production and assets as potential determinants of democracy. Third, we assess indicators of short-term economic performance. Fourth, we consider different economic inequalities. Our analysis shows several null-results or non-robust results, for instance, between income inequality and democracy (both upturns and downturns), or between (various aspects of) economic development and democratic upturns. We also find several robust relationships. For example, a high share of agricultural production in the economy mitigates democratization, whereas strong short-term economic performance and high income levels hinders democratic decline.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Skaaning, Svend-Erik (2022). The Ups and Downs of Democracy, 1789–2018, Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9781316514412. s. 29–54. doi: 10.1017/9781009086974.002. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We draw on V-Dem data to present global democratic trends since 1789 and revisit key descriptive questions on the global spread of democratic institutions. We provide a comprehensive, nuanced, and disaggregated assessment of democratic development through modern history. We first consider the spread of electoral democracy from 1789 until the present day. Over this period, the world has witnessed a massive spread of electoral democracy. However, the spread has been uneven; substantial upturns and downturns have tended to cluster in different time periods, and all along there have been noteworthy cross-region differences in levels of electoral democracy. Second, we take on a disaggregate perspective and look at trends in sub-components of electoral democracy, namely adult suffrage, elected officials, clean elections, freedom of association, and freedom of expression. Finally, we change our focus from electoral democracy to describe trends pertaining to “thicker” understandings of democracy, that is, ‘liberal democracy’, ‘deliberative democracy’, ‘participatory democracy’, and ‘egalitarian democracy’.

• Coppedge, Michael; Edgell, Amanda B.; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Lindberg, Staffan I. (2022). V-Dem Reconsiders Democratization, Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9781316514412. s. 1–28. doi: 10.1017/9781009086974.001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This edited volume surveys and retests most of the central explanations for democracy outcomes (levels of electoral democracy and upturns and downturns in it) using Varieties of Democracy data. After a chapter describing historical trends, other chapters survey and test hypotheses concerning geography and demography; international influences; economic determinants; institutions; and social forces. The volume concludes with a new theoretical framework emphasizing the historical sequencing of different kinds of causes. The conclusion also uses path analysis to integrate the most promising hypotheses from the preceding chapters into causal sequences explaining levels, upturns, and downturns.

• Gerring, John; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Berge, Jonas Vidhammer (2022). Does Democracy Matter? Annual review of political science (Palo Alto, Calif. Print). ISSN 1094-2939. 25, s. 357–375. doi: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-060820-060910. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Does democracy matter for normatively desirable outcomes? We survey results from 1,100 cross-country analyses drawn from 600 journal articles published after the year 2000. These analyses are conducted on 30 distinct outcomes pertaining to social policy, economic policy, citizenship and human rights, military and criminal justice, and overall governance. Across these diverse outcomes, most studies report either a positive or null relationship with democracy. However, there is evidence of threshold bias, suggesting that reported findings may reflect a somewhat exaggerated image of democracy's effects. Additionally, democratic effects are more likely to be found for outcomes that are easily attained than for those that lie beyond the reach of government but are often of great normative importance. We also find that outcomes measured by subjective indicators show a stronger positive relationship with democracy than outcomes that are measured or proxied by more objective indicators.

• Gerring, John & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2022). Homicide and State History. American Sociological Review. ISSN 0003-1224. 87(6), s. 950–980. doi: 10.1177/00031224221131758. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2022). Patterns of Democracy over Space and Time. International Studies Quarterly. ISSN 0020-8833. 66(3). doi: 10.1093/isq/sqac041. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Abstract Unidimensional measures of democracy fail to account for the complex and varied nature of political systems. This article disaggregates the concept of democracy and proposes a multidimensional conceptualization to account for this variation in institutional configurations. Three theoretically informed dimensions are featured: participation, electoral contestation, and constraints on the executive. The three dimensions constitute a cube covering all regime types, in which we place countries using V-Dem data from 1789 to 2019. This cube of democracy patterns reveals several interesting observations. We trace historical patterns of democratization and discuss how countries across the world have taken different paths at different times. Our conceptualization shows that political systems with a similar score along a unidimensional scale are often quite distinct. In addition, across the globe for 200 years, certain configurations of political institutions rarely occur. Furthermore, our approach reveals interesting patterns of regime convergence and divergence over time. Finally, we show that the typical pathways to democracy have changed since 1789. This multidimensional conceptualization ultimately opens up new avenues for research in which institutional variation and change can be studied in greater detail.

• Dahlum, Sirianne; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Mechkova, Valeriya (2022). Women's political empowerment and economic growth. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 156. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105822. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate whether and how women’s political empowerment relates to technological change, the main driver of long-term economic growth. We argue that three aspects of empowerment – descriptive representation, civil liberties protection, and civil society participation – advance technological change and thereby economic growth through (a) increasing the number and variability of new ideas introduced in the economy and (b) improving the selection of more efficient ideas. Drawing on data from 182 countries and 221 years, we test various implications from our argument. Women’s political empowerment is positively related to subsequent economic growth. This relationship persists across various model specifications and when accounting for different potential confounders. The three sub-components of empowerment are also, individually, related to growth, although not as strongly as the aggregated concept. The relationship is retained across different contexts, but is clearer for “Non-Western” countries and in earlier time periods. We also find evidence that women’s political empowerment enhances technological change.

• Gerring, John; Gjerløw, Haakon & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2022). Regimes and industrialization. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 152. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105791. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Uberti, Luca Jacopo & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2021). Institutions, Human Capital and Economic Growth. I Douarin, Elodie & Havrylyshyn, Oleg (Red.), The Palgrave Handbook of Comparative Economics. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9783030508876. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2021). Autocracy and variations in economic development outcomes. I Crawford, Gordon & Abdulai, Abdul-Gafaru (Red.), Research Handbook on Democracy and Development. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781788112642. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hermansen, Gudmund Horn; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2021). Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization. Political Analysis. ISSN 1047-1987. 29(4), s. 485–504. doi: 10.1017/pan.2020.39. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Various theories in political science point to temporal heterogeneity in relationships of interest. Yet, empirical research typically ignores such heterogeneity or employs fairly crude measures to evaluate it. Advances in models for change point detection offer opportunities to study temporal heterogeneity more carefully. We customize a recent such method for political science purposes, for instance so that it accommodates panel data, and provide an accompanying R-package. We evaluate the methodology, and how it behaves when different assumptions about the number and abrupt nature of change points are violated, by using simulated data. Importantly, the methodology allows us to evaluate changes to different quantities of interest (for various estimators). It also allows us to provide comprehensive estimates concerning uncertainty in the timing and size of changes. We illustrate the utility of this flexible change point methodology on two types of regression models (Probit and OLS) in two empirical applications. We first re-investigate the proposition by Albertus (2017) that labor-dependent agriculture had a more pronounced negative effect on democratic survival before the “third wave of democratization.” Next, we utilize data extending from the French revolution to the present, from V-Dem, to examine the time-variant nature of the income–democracy relationship.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2020). Democracy research: What is its status and where is it heading? Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning (TfS). ISSN 0040-716X. 61(1), s. 87–92. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-291X-2020-01-13. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Cornell, Agnes; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Teorell, Jan (2020). Bureaucracy and Growth. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. doi: 10.1177/0010414020912262. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We revisit the hypothesis that a Weberian bureaucracy enhances economic growth. Theoretically, we develop arguments for why such a bureaucracy may enhance growth and discuss plausible counterarguments. Empirically, we use new measures capturing various Weberian features in countries across the world, with some time series extending back to 1789. The evidence base from previous large- N studies is surprisingly thin, but our extensive data enable us to move beyond the problematic cross-country correlations used in previous studies. Hence, we conduct tests that control for country-specific characteristics while ensuring sufficient variation on the slow-moving bureaucracy variables to enable precise estimation. Our analysis suggests that previous cross-country regressions have vastly overstated the strength of the relationship. While this casts uncertainty on the proposition that there is an effect of Weberian bureaucracy on growth, our further analysis suggests that—if an effect exists—it may operate in the short term and be stronger in recent decades.

• Fjelde, Hanne; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2020). Which Institutions Matter? Re-Considering the Democratic Civil Peace. International Studies Quarterly. ISSN 0020-8833. doi: 10.1093/isq/sqaa076. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  ABSTRACT Despite decades of research, there is no consensus on the relationship between democratic institutions and risk of civil war. We alleviate measurement issues and theoretical ambiguity in much existing work by theoretically and empirically unpacking core features of democracy and their relationship to civil war. We distinguish between institutions that impose vertical constraints on leaders from the population at large, and institutions that allow various groups, including non-incumbent elites, to place horizontal constraints on leader behavior. Both types of democratic institutions, we argue, help leaders overcome commitment problems related to potential agents of rebellion, thus reducing civil war risk. This is particularly so when these institutional mechanisms reinforce each other. Using precise institutional indicators from Varieties of Democracy, we disentangle and separately measure the dimensions of interest. Both vertical and (especially) horizontal constraints mitigate civil war risk, but only clearly so when both types of constraining institutions co-exist in so-called liberal democracies. Absent constraints from a capable parliament or independent judiciary, improvements to the freeness and fairness of elections do not mitigate civil war onset. Malgré des décennies de recherche, il n’existe aucun consensus sur la relation entre les institutions démocratiques et les guerres civiles. Nous atténuons les problèmes de mesure et l’ambiguité théorique de nombreux travaux existants en analysant les caractéristiques fondamentales de la démocratie et leur relation avec les guerres civiles dun point de vue théorique et empirique. Nous distinguons les institutions qui imposent des contraintes verticales aux dirigeants par le biais de la population globale de celles qui permettent á divers groupes, y compris aux élites qui ne sont pas au pouvoir, dimposer des contraintes horizontales pour le comportement des dirigeants. Nous soutenons que ces deux types d’institutions démocratiques aident les dirigeants á surmonter les problèmes dengagement liés aux agents rebelles potentiels, réduisant ainsi le risque de guerre civile. Cela est particulièrement vrai lorsque ces mécanismes institutionnels se renforcent mutuellement. Nous nous appuyons sur des indicateurs institutionnels précis issus de V-Dem pour dégager et mesurer séparément les dimensions dintérêt. Les contraintes verticales et horizontales atténuent toutes deux le risque de guerre civile, mais uniquement lorsque les deux types dinstitutions contraignantes coexistent dans des démocraties dites libérales. En l’absence de contraintes émanant dun parlement compétent ou d’un système judiciaire indépendant, les améliorations apportées á la liberté et á l’équité des élections n’atténuent pas le risque de déclenchement de guerre civile. A pesar de las décadas de investigación, no hay consenso sobre la relación entre las instituciones democráticas y el riesgo de una guerra civil. Minimizamos los problemas de medición y la ambiguedad teórica en gran parte del trabajo existente desentrañando de manera teórica y empírica los rasgos fundamentales de la democracia y su relación con la guerra civil. Realizamos una distinción entre las instituciones que imponen restricciones verticales a los líderes de la población en general y las instituciones que permiten a varios grupos, incluidas las elites no tradicionales, imponer restricciones horizontales al comportamiento de los líderes. Sostenemos que ambos tipos de instituciones democráticas ayudan a los líderes a enfrentar los problemas de compromiso relacionados con los posibles agentes de la rebelión a fin de reducir el riesgo de una guerra civil. Esto es particularmente cierto cuando dichos mecanismos institucionales se refuerzan entre sí. Mediante indicadores institucionales precisos de variedades de democracia (Varieties of Democracy, V-Dem), esclarecemos y medimos por separado las dimensiones de interés. Tanto las restricciones verticales como las horizontales minimizan el riesgo de una guerra civil, pero solo cuando ambos tipos de instituciones restrictivas coexisten en lo que conocemos como democracias liberales. En ausencia de las restricciones de un parlamento competente o de un poder judicial independiente, las mejoras en la libertad e imparcialidad de las elecciones no reducen la posibilidad de que se desate una guerra civil.

• Gerring, John; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Maguire, Matthew; Skaaning, Svend-Erik; Teorell, Jan & Coppedge, Michael (2020). Democracy and human development: issues of conceptualization and measurement. Democratization. ISSN 1351-0347. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2020.1818721. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study attempts to reconcile competing positions in an important debate about the relationship between regime type and human development. We contend that this empirical relationship is contingent upon issues of conceptualization and measurement in democracy. First, the relationship is more likely to be perceived when democracy is measured in a nuanced fashion, taking account of gradations of democracy and autocracy. Second, some aspects of democracy – those associated with competitive elections – are more strongly associated with human development than others. Third, the components of electoral democracy interact in a reinforcing manner. Finally, the impact of democracy on human development is a distal relationship that depends upon a country’s entire regime history. Our approach draws on several new datasets that interrogate change across a century, enhancing empirical leverage on this important question. To measure human development, we employ the Gapminder project, covering most sovereign countries from 1900 to 2012. To measure democracy, we draw on Varieties of Democracy data, which measure democracy in a highly differentiated fashion for most sovereign countries from 1900 to the present. An extensive set of analyses offer strong corroboration for the argument.

• Wilson, Matthew C. & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2020). Geographical Coverage in Political Science Research. Perspectives on Politics. ISSN 1537-5927. 20(3), s. 1024–1039. doi: 10.1017/S1537592720002509. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We describe and analyze patterns in the geographical focus of political science research across more than a century. Using a new database of titles and abstracts from 27,690 publications in eight major political science journals from their inception, we demonstrate that, historically, political scientists concentrated their studies on a limited number of countries situated in North America and Western Europe. While a strong focus on Western countries remains today, we detail how this picture has changed somewhat over recent decades, with political science research becoming increasingly “globalized.” Still, several countries have received almost no attention, and geographical citation patterns differ by subfield. For example, we find indications of a greater focus on the United States and large Western European countries in international relations than in comparative politics publications. We also analyze several correlates of a country being the focus of political science research, including the country’s predominant languages, income, population size, democracy level, and conflict experience, and show systematic variation in the geographical focus of research. This unequal focus, we argue, has important implications regarding the applicability of extant descriptive and causal claims, as well as the development of theories in political science.

• Gjerløw, Haakon & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2019). Leaders, Private Interests, and Socially Wasteful Projects: Skyscrapers in Democracies and Autocracies. Political research quarterly. ISSN 1065-9129. doi: 10.1177/1065912919840710. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Political leaders often have private incentives to pursue socially wasteful projects, but not all leaders are able to pursue these interests. We argue that weaker accountability mechanisms allow autocratic leaders to more easily realize wasteful projects than democratic leaders. We focus on one particular project, skyscraper construction, where we obtain objective measures comparable across different contexts. We test different implications from our argument by drawing on a new dataset recording all buildings exceeding 150 m, globally. We find that autocracies systematically build more new skyscrapers than democracies. Furthermore, autocratic skyscrapers are more excessive than democratic ones, and—in contrast with democracies—autocracies pursue skyscraper projects to about the same extent in rural/poor and urban/rich societies. When investigating different mechanisms entailed in our argument, the link between regime type and skyscraper construction seems due in large part to stronger vertical accountability mechanisms and more open information environments in democracies.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli (2019). Majoritarian systems, rural groups, and (arrested) welfare state development. International Political Science Review. ISSN 0192-5121. doi: 10.1177/0192512118809106. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  While some scholars suggest that rural groups contribute to welfare state expansion, we highlight their incentives to restrain it. The ability of rural groups to achieve this preference hinges on their power resources, but also on the electoral system. We propose that in majoritarian systems, rural groups can often veto welfare legislation. In proportional systems this is less feasible, even for resource-rich groups. Instead, agrarian groups sometimes accept welfare legislation in return for other policy-concessions in post-electoral bargaining. We illustrate the argument with British and Norwegian historical experiences, and test the implications using panel data from 96 democracies. We find evidence that resourceful agrarian groups effectively arrest welfare state development in majoritarian systems, but not in proportional systems. As expected, the electoral system matters less for welfare state expansion when agrarian groups are weak. The results are robust to using alternative estimators, measures, samples and model specifications.

• Coppedge, Michael; Gerring, John; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Krusell, Joshua; Medzihorsky, Juraj & Pernes, Josefine [Vis alle 12 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2019). The Methodology of “Varieties of Democracy” (V-Dem)1. BMS. Bulletin de méthodologie sociologique. ISSN 0759-1063. 143(1), s. 107–133. doi: 10.1177/0759106319854989. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article describes and discusses the new generation of methodological responses to measuring democracy and related issues generated by Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). V-Dem is distinct in several regards in addition to its unique level of disaggregation, by the combination of: historical data extending back to 1900 and for a large selection among them to 1789 for many countries in the world; use of multiple, independent coders for each evaluative question; inter-coder reliability tests incorporated into a custom designed Bayesian item-response theory measurement model; provision of confidence bounds for all point estimates associated with expert-coded questions as well as for all indices; multiple indices reflecting varying theories of democracy; fully transparent aggregation procedures; and that all data are made freely available, including original coder-level judgments (exclusive of any personal identifying information).

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Gerring, John; Skaaning, Svend-Erik; Teorell, Jan; Maguire, Matthew & Coppedge, Michael [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2019). Economic development and democracy: An electoral connection. European Journal of Political Research. ISSN 0304-4130. 58(1), s. 292–314. doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12282. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Scholars continue to debate whether economic development affects regime type. This article argues that a clear relationship exists between development and the electoral component of democracy, but not – or at least less so – between development and other components of broader understandings of democracy. This is so because development enhances the power resources of citizens and elections provide a focal point for collective action. The theory is tested with two new datasets – Varieties of Democracy and Lexical Index of Electoral Democracy – that allow us to disaggregate the concept of democracy into meso‐ and micro‐level indicators. Results of these tests corroborate the theory: only election‐centred indicators are robustly associated with economic development. This may help to account for apparent inconsistencies across extant studies and shed light on the mechanisms at work in a much‐studied relationship. Further analysis shows that development affects electoral democracy by reducing electoral fraud, election violence and vote buying.

• Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2019). Party Institutionalization and Welfare State Development. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. doi: 10.1017/S0007123419000498. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article argues that the extent to which political parties are institutionalized shapes welfare state development. Institutionalized parties allow politicians to overcome co-ordination problems, avoid capture by special interests and form stable linkages with broad social groups. These features both enable and incentivize politicians to pursue extensive welfare policies. The study employs measures of party institutionalization and welfare state features to study these proposed relationships. Even when accounting for country- and year-fixed effects and plausible confounders such as electoral system, unionization, regime type and state capacity, the authors find clear relationships between party institutionalization and more extensive and universal welfare states. Focusing on universalism, they find that the relationship is more pronounced when constraints on executives are strong and in democracies, but that it also exists in autocracies. Further, when disaggregating party institutionalization and evaluating mechanisms, the linkages that institutionalized parties form with social groups constitute one important, but not the only relevant, factor.

• Gerring, John & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2019). Polity Size and the Institutionalization of Leadership Succession. Studies in comparative international development. ISSN 0039-3606. 54, s. 451–472. doi: 10.1007/s12116-019-09286-1. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Why is leadership succession highly institutionalized in some polities but not in others? We propose that the size of the polity constitutes a key explanatory factor. Specifically, we argue that an institutionalized process of succession is more likely to be adopted in larger polities because there are more elite actors vying for power, making it difficult for a single actor to consolidate power, hold it indefinitely, and pass it on to his heirs. To test this argument, we construct a global index centering on observable features of leadership succession. The index, drawing on data from the Archigos project, covers most sovereign countries from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. A battery of cross-national tests shows a positive and robust association between polity size and the institutionalization of leadership succession.

• Dahlum, Sirianne; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Wig, Tore (2019). Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy. Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816. 81(4), s. 1494–1499. doi: 10.1086/704699. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Several prominent accounts suggest that democratic transitions are more likely to take place when opposition to the incumbent regime is led by certain social groups. We further develop the argument that opposition movements dominated by industrial workers or the urban middle classes have both the requisite motivation and capacity to bring about democratization. To systematically test this argument, we collect new data on the social composition of antiregime opposition movements, globally from 1900 to 2006. We find that movements dominated by one of these urban groups more often result in democracy, both when compared to other movements and to situations without organized mass opposition. As expected, the relationship is stronger in urban than rural societies, and in more recent decades. When further differentiating the groups and accounting for plausible alternative explanations, the relationship between industrial worker campaigns and democratization is very robust, whereas the evidence is mixed for middle-class campaigns.

• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Wig, Tore (2019). Patterns of regime breakdown since the French revolution. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. s. 1–36. doi: 10.1177/0010414019879953. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We present a temporally fine-grained data set on regimes, defined as the formal and informal rules essential for selecting leaders. The data set comprises more than 2,000 regimes from 197 polities, 1789 to 2016. We highlight how the frequency of breakdowns and particular modes of breakdown have followed cyclical rather than monotonic patterns across modern history. The most common breakdown modes, overall, are coups and incumbent-guided regime transformations. Furthermore, we report robust evidence that low income, slow or negative growth, and intermediate levels of democracy predict a higher likelihood of regime breakdown. Yet, by running change-point analysis we establish that breakdown risk has cycled substantively across periods of modern history, and the aforementioned explanatory factors are more clearly related to breakdown during certain periods. When disaggregating different breakdown modes, low income is related to, for example, breakdown due to popular uprisings, whereas intermediate democracy levels clearly predict coup-induced breakdowns and incumbent-guided transitions.

• Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Hegre, Håvard (2019). The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis. Public Choice. ISSN 0048-5829. doi: 10.1007/s11127-019-00742-z. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Numerous studies—operating with diverse model specifications, samples and empirical measures—suggest different economic, social, cultural, demographic, institutional and international determinants of democracy. We distinguish between democratization and democratic survival and test the sensitivities of 67 proposed determinants by varying the control variable set, democracy measure, and sample time period. Furthermore, we go beyond existing sensitivity analyses and unpack the aggregate results by analyzing how theoretically motivated control variables affect sensitivity for two prominent determinants in the democracy literature: income and Islam. Overall, our results reveal a far larger number of robust determinants of democratization than of democratic survival. For democratic survival, the only robust factors are income and a law-abiding bureaucracy. In addition, our results highlight uncertainty surrounding the relationship between income and democratization, but show that broader development processes enhance the chances of democratization. Moreover, chances of democratization are lower in countries with large Muslim populations, but that relationship is sensitive to controlling for natural resources, education and neighborhood characteristics. Other results of the sensitivity analysis show that political protests, a democratic neighborhood, and the global proportion of democracies positively influence democratization, while natural resources, majoritarian systems, and long-tenured leaders make countries less likely to democratize.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Teorell, Jan; Wig, Tore; Cornell, Agnes; Gerring, John & Gjerløw, Haakon [Vis alle 11 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2019). Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset: Political institutions in the long 19th century. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 56(3), s. 440–451. doi: 10.1177/0022343318823866. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset (Historical V-Dem) contains about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally – including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies – from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators come from the Varieties of Democracy dataset, which covers 1900 to the present – together these two datasets cover the bulk of ‘modern history’. Historical V-Dem also includes several new indicators, covering features that are pertinent for 19th-century polities. We describe the data, coding process, and different strategies employed in Historical V-Dem to cope with issues of reliability and validity and ensure intertemporal and cross-country comparability. To illustrate the potential uses of the dataset we describe patterns of democratization in the ‘long 19th century’. Finally, we investigate how interstate war relates to subsequent democratization.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli (2018). Electoral Rules, Labor Market Coordination and Macroeconomic Performance. Scandinavian Political Studies. ISSN 0080-6757. 41(3), s. 367–378. doi: 10.1111/1467-9477.12126. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Two distinct literatures have studied the macroeconomic effects of electoral systems and of labor market structures, respectively. Results include a positive association between proportional representation (PR) electoral systems and growth, but also between PR and inflation, as well as negative or hump‐shaped relationships between labor market coordination and the ‘misery variables’, unemployment and inflation. However, these results could be biased; particular electoral system and labor market features co‐vary systematically, and extant studies have typically not taken this into account. Effects attributed to PR systems could really stem from labor market coordination, and vice versa. In this article the relationships with macroeconomic outcomes for both electoral systems and labor market structures are re‐evaluated by modelling them jointly. Employing data from more than 30 democracies, with time‐series from the period 1960–2010, some robust and some non‐robust associations are identified. First, PR systems are, indeed, associated with higher growth rates, but not with higher inflation. Regarding labor market coordination, robust curvilinear relationships with unemployment and inflation are identified; intermediate levels of coordination correspond with worse macroeconomic performance – albeit not lower growth – even when accounting for electoral system features.

• Bizzarro, Fernando; Gerring, John; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Hicken, Allen; Bernhard, Michael & Skaaning, Svend-Erik [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). Party Strength and Economic Growth. World Politics. ISSN 0043-8871. 70(2), s. 275–320. doi: 10.1017/S0043887117000375. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  While a large literature suggests an important role for political parties in development, this article is the first attempt to layout and test a comprehensive theory connecting parties to economic growth. The authors argue that strong parties broaden the constituencies to which policymakers respond and help politicians solve coordination problems. These features help to ensure better economic management, public services, and political stability. And this, in turn, enhances economic growth. Drawing on a novel measure of party strength from the Varieties of Democracy data set, the authors test this theory on data drawn from more than 150 countries observed annually from 1901–2010. They identify a sizeable effect that is robust to various specifications, estimators, and samples. The effect operates in both democracies and autocracies, and is fairly stable across regions and time periods.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Rasmussen, Magnus (2018). The Autocratic Welfare State: Old-Age Pensions, Credible Commitments, and Regime Survival. Comparative Political Studies. ISSN 0010-4140. 51(5), s. 659–695. doi: 10.1177/0010414017710265. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, we argue that autocratic regimes are no less likely than democracies to adopt old-age pensions, although autocratic programs are less universal in their coverage. Our theoretical argument focuses on the strong incentives that autocratic regimes have for enacting and maintaining such programs to ensure regime survival. Autocratic pension programs can be considered club goods that (a) are targeted to critical supporting groups and (b) solve credible commitment problems on promises of future distribution, thereby mitigating probability of regime breakdown. We test three implications from the argument, drawing on a novel dataset on welfare state programs and including 140 countries with time series from the 1880s. First, we find that autocracies are no less likely than democracies to have old-age pension programs. But, second, autocracies have less universal pension programs than democracies. Third, pension programs effectively reduce the probability of autocratic breakdown.

• Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2017). Do Democracies Provide Better Education? Revisiting the Democracy-Human Capital Link. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 94, s. 186–199. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2024). Measuring democracy dimensions and assessing how international political factors influence them, with applications to Jordan and Norway. Politics and Society Institute Amman. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2024). Democracy and Dictatorship. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 9788245051674. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  What exactly is democracy, and how do we measure it? What constitutes a high-quality democracy, and what factors increase the risk of countries moving moving towards dictatorship? Does democracy matter for economic development, inequality, or education policy?

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Lindberg, Staffan I.; Edgell, Amanda & Coppedge, Michael (2022). Why Democracies Develop and Decline. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781316514412. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2022). Reforming to Survive: The Bolshevik Origins of Social Policies. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781108995474. 94 s. doi: 10.1017/9781108983334. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This Element details how elites provide policy concessions when they face credible threats of revolution. Specifically, the authors discuss how the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 and the subsequent formation of Comintern enhanced elites' perceptions of revolutionary threat by affecting the capacity and motivation of labor movements as well as the elites' interpretation of information signals. These developments incentivized elites to provide policy concessions to urban workers, notably reduced working hours and expanded social transfer programs. The authors assess their argument by using original qualitative and quantitative data. First, they document changes in perceptions of revolutionary threat and strategic policy concessions in early inter-war Norway by using archival and other sources. Second, they code, for example, representatives at the 1919 Comintern meeting to proxy for credibility of domestic revolutionary threat in cross-national analysis. States facing greater threats expanded various social policies to a larger extent than other countries, and some of these differences persisted for decades.

• Kosberg, Eva; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Hovden, Hanne (2022). Demos. Lærebok i politikk og menneskerettigheter vg2/vg3. Cappelen Damm AS. ISBN 9788202689742. 350 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2021). Demokrati og Diktatur. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 9788245032628. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gjerløw, Haakon; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Wig, Tore & Wilson, Matthew C. (2021). One Road to Riches?: How State Building and Democratization Affect Economic Development. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781009053693. 120 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Coppedge, Michael; Gerring, John; Glynn, Adam; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Lindberg, Staffan & Pemstein, Daniel [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2020). Varieties of Democracy: Measuring a Century of Political Change. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781108347860. doi: 10.1017/9781108347860. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Søyland, Martin & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). Eliteprivilegier og ansvarsflukt. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lutscher, Philipp Matthias; Dræge, Jonas; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Donnay, Karsten (2026). The dark logic of visual strongman propaganda. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Propaganda: visual strongman propaganda can mobilise supporters, but its effectiveness depends on regime type and political context

• Einevoll, Gaute & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2025). #103: Om å Trump-sikre demokratiet i Norge { med Carl Henrik Knutsen. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Grødeland, Gunnveig; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; MOENE, KALLE & Øvrelid, Lilja (2025). Panelsamtale: 80 Years of Democracy – Is There Hope for Another 80? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2024). Election year 2024. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Billions will vote in 2024. Some elections may solidify autocrats’ hold on power. Others may dethrone them, opening routes to democratisation

• Banik, Dan; Johnson, Hilde Frafjord; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahl, Marianne & Matthes, Claudia (2024). The democratic peace in a geopolitically changing world. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In light of the shifting geopolitical landscape, the long-standing theory of democratic peace – asserting that democracies rarely wage war against each other – is facing critical scrutiny. This panel will discuss whether this principle still holds true in an era marked by shifting power dynamics, rising authoritarianism, and the erosion of liberal democratic norms. With conflicts increasingly shaped by hybrid warfare, economic rivalries, and regional instability, the traditional correlation between democracy and peace may be weakening. The discussion will explore whether contemporary democracies are more prone to conflict, or if the theory needs to be redefined for a multipolar world. The panel will also revisit Francis Fukuyama's "End of History" argument, which predicted the triumph of liberal democracy as the final form of human governance. As new global players and political ideologies emerge, panelists will assess whether this notion is still relevant, or if we are witnessing the rise of new patterns of conflict that challenge the foundations of democratic peace.

• Mjelde, Hilmar; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Skjeseth, Heidi Taksdal (2024). Hva kan forskningen fortelle oss om hvem som vinner presidentvalget i USA? - Arendalsuka. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rakner, Lise; Ossome, Lyn; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Norbakk, Mari; Pimenta, Raquel & Kanyenze, Godfrey (2024). The political economy of autocratization. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). Imperial Labor Standards: Working Time Regulation in a World Dominated by Empires. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). Laying Down the Principles: How Local Socialist Achievements Spurred National Bourgeois Support for Non-Contributory Pensions. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Dahl, Marianne; Dahlum, Sirianne; Wig, Tore; Gjerløw, Haakon; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Metternich, Nils W. (2023). The role of collective social groups in democratization: Evidence from two centuries of mass protest. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2023). How economic crises make incumbent leaders change their regimes from within. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gjerløw, Haakon; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Wig, Tore & Wilson, Matthew (2022). Democracy Works, Even in Weak States – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Political scientists have long assumed that a strong state is a prerequisite for a well-functioning democracy. Recent research suggests that this assum ...

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2022). Is Democracy Compatible with a Competitive Economy? Japan Spotlight. doi: https:/www.jef.or.jp/journal/pdf/245th_Special_Article_06.pdf. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Despite several examples of authoritarian countries that have developed rapidly, with current China being a prominent one, decades of systematic research suggest that democracy does not hurt economic growth or other indicators of national economic competitiveness. To the contrary, the best available evidence suggests that democracy may come with several advantages, also for the economy

• Wig, Tore & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2022). Putin kan falle. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Wig, Tore; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahlum, Sirianne & Rasmussen, Magnus Bergli (2022). The Social Groups Supporting or Opposing Political Regimes. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2021). Playing the long game: why democracy is good for business - The Loop. The Loop. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The economic benefits of democracy

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2021). A business case for democracy: regime type, growth, and growth volatility. Democratization. ISSN 1351-0347. doi: 10.1080/13510347.2021.1940965. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Nilssen, Tore & Wig, Tore (2020). Skal snøballen rulle, må det være riktig snøball. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Nilssen, Tore & Wig, Tore (2020). Plan S: snøballen som stopper opp. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Wig, Tore (2020). Are we on the cusp of a global wave of regime change? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Wig, Tore; Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2020). Erna som diktator. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Midtbøen, Arnfinn Haagensen (2019). Diskriminering er et reelt problem. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Begrenset seksuell trakassering og diskriminering er helt normalt i akademia. 40 prosent av de spurte i en ny undersøkelse sier at de har opplevd diskriminering det siste året.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2019). Lenin og den moderne velferdsstatens gjennombrudd. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Djuve, Vilde Lunnan; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Wig, Tore (2019). Ingen regimer varer evig. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Dahlum, Sirianne; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Wig, Tore (2019). We checked 100 years of protests in 150 countries. Here’s what we learned about the working class and democracy. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Midtbøen, Arnfinn Haagensen (2019). Internasjonalisering, mangfold og diskriminering i norsk akademia. Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT). ISSN 0800-336X. 36(3), s. 288–295. doi: 10.18261/issn.1504-3053-2019-03-11. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  En ny rapport fra Akademiet for yngre forskere (AYF) viser at yngre forskere i Norge har positive holdninger til internasjonalisering i akademia. Samtidig opplever hver fjerde forsker med innvandrerbakgrunn diskriminering og manglende inkludering. AYF etterlyser bred debatt om disse funnene, og målrettede tiltak for å komme utfordringene til livs.

• Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Strand, Håvard (2019). Patterns of authority over space and time. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Teorell, Jan (2018). Historical Varieties of Democracy: Political Institutions from 1789 to 1920. APSA -- Comparative Democratization Newsletter. 16(2), s. 3–8. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Wig, Tore & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2018). Internasjonalisering nå! Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift (NNT). ISSN 0800-336X. 04(35). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Gerring, John; Skaaning, Svend-Erik; Teorell, Jan; Maguire, Matthew & Lindberg, Staffan [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2018). Economic Development and Democracy: A Disaggregated Perspective. APSA Annals of Comparative Democratization. 16(3), s. 7–11. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Holsten, Hilde Hartmann & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2018). What democracy looked like 200 years ago. [Internet]. ScienceNordic. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A new dataset allows you to explore the different dimensions of democracy from 1789 until now.

• Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Dahlum, Sirianne; Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Hagfors, Sara Bjønness; Klausen, Jan Erling & Søyland, Martin [Vis alle 7 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Tilstandsanalyse av det norske demokratiet. Kommunal- og distriktsdepartementet. doi: https:/www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/b242728c615c40f3a720a56acd56971a/tinde_2023_rapport_endelig_versjon.pdf. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Hermansen, Gudmund Horn (2019). Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Moor, Katrien De; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Lind, Guro Elisabeth; Hølleland, Herdis & Storeng, Katerini Tagmatarchi (2018). Unge forskere i Norge. Karriereveier og ambisjoner. Oslo: Akademiet for yngre forskere. Akademiet for yngre forskere. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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