Intergenerational Mobility and Labor Market Inclusion

• Borgen, Nicolai T.; Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen; Kotsadam, Andreas & Raaum, Oddbjørn (2025). Do funds for more teachers improve student outcomes? The Journal of human resources. ISSN 0022-166X. doi: 10.3368/jhr.0523-12892R2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We investigate the effects of a large-scale Norwegian intervention that provided extra teachers to 166 lower secondary schools with relatively high student-teacher ratios and low average grades. We exploit these two margins using a regression discontinuity setup and find that the intervention reduced the student-teacher ratio by around 10%, without crowding out other school resources. The extra funding did not improve test scores and medium-term academic outcomes, and we can reject even small positive effects. We do find that more teachers improved the school environment, including self-reported student well-being, but with the largest impact on aspects of the school environment most weakly associated with better academic outcomes.

• Zhao, Yuejun; Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut (2025). School starting age and the social gradient in educational outcomes. Education Economics. ISSN 0964-5292. doi: 10.1080/09645292.2025.2489002. Full text in Research Archive
• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Frisli, Siri (2025). Educational expansion reforms and intergenerational educational mobility in Norway. Social Forces. ISSN 0037-7732. p. 1–25. doi: 10.1093/sf/soaf101. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The latter half of the 20th century was marked by a massive expansion of higher educational systems in many Western countries. This development provided greater educational opportunities, resulted in a marked increase in educational attainment, and has been attributed as an important factor behind increased intergenerational educational mobility. Most previous studies of these developments are based on analyses of aggregate trends in educational attainment and mobility and overlook the geographical dimension of educational expansions. The geographic location of colleges and the local availability of higher educational institutions may have had important impacts on local patterns of intergenerational educational mobility. We study the impacts of major educational expansion reforms that took place between 1969 and 1993 in Norway and resulted in a massive decentralization of higher educational opportunities. Combining recent developments in differences-in-differences methodology, detailed data on the establishment and upgrading of such institutions, and population-wide register data on social origins and educational attainment, we study the effects of the establishment and upgrading of local colleges on educational mobility. Results suggest that these improvements in local educational opportunities had little to no impact on intergenerational educational mobility locally. We discuss our findings in light of the Norwegian welfare state context.

• Hootegem, Arno Van; Rogne, Adrian Farner; Cros, Caroline Tveter; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2025). Social origins and socioeconomic outcomes: a combined twin and adoption study. European Sociological Review. ISSN 0266-7215. 41(5), p. 793–807. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcaf029. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Parents and children tend to have similar socioeconomic status (SES). Sociological theory has often emphasized the role of social mechanisms in intergenerational transmission, including the influence of the broader rearing environment as well as parental investments and aid, but often not allotted an important role to genetics. Accumulating evidence suggests that genetics play an important role in the transmission of SES from parents to children. Yet, estimates differ substantially across data sets, measures and methods. Using two research designs that account for potential genetic confounding, and high-quality data from Norway, we estimate the strength of the intergenerational social transmission of a range of SES indicators. By triangulating data and designs, we obtain estimates that are more robust to idiosyncratic modelling assumptions. Measures of Norwegian parents’ socioeconomic position predict their children’s socioeconomic outcomes, but purely social mechanisms only account for a fifth of the total explained variance in intergenerational transmission.

• Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Røgeberg, Ole & Torvik, Fartein Ask (2024). School performance and the social gradient in young adult death in Norway. Nature Human Behaviour. 9, p. 84–89. doi: 10.1038/s41562-024-02053-w. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Young adults from low socioeconomic backgrounds face an increased risk of early mortality. Here we utilize population-wide data from 17 Norwegian birth cohorts (N = 986,573) to assess whether this risk gradient was explained by early-life educational performance, specifically grade point average at 16 years of age. We show that the gradients in both parental education and income largely disappeared when adjusting for school performance in the models. Specifically, among boys, those with the lowest parental education had an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 2.04 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.86–2.22) compared with peers with the highest parental education, while for girls, the HR was 1.64 (95% CI 1.35–1.93). After adjusting for school performance, these estimates dropped to 0.99 (95% CI 0.79–1.19) for boys and 0.87 (95% CI 0.55–1.19) for girls. Similarly, the mortality risk for those from the lowest parental income quartile decreased from 1.79 (95% CI 1.67–1.91) to 1.25 (95% CI 1.12–1.38) for boys and from 1.63 (95% CI 1.44–1.83) to 1.24 (95% CI 1.03–1.46) for girls. Low educational performance remained strongly associated with early mortality in analyses accounting for unobserved heterogeneity at the family level; boys with a grade point average in the lowest quartile had an HR of 3.04 (95% CI 2.38–3.89), while for girls, the HR was 1.79 (95% CI 1.22–2.63). External causes of death, particularly accidents and poisoning, were most overrepresented among individuals with poor school performance.

• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Røgeberg, Ole & Terviö, Marko (2024). Steeper at the top: cognitive ability and earnings in Finland and Norway. European Sociological Review. ISSN 0266-7215. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcae020. Full text in Research Archive
• Markussen, Simen; Nareklishvili, Maria & Røed, Knut (2024). Overeducation and Economic Mobility. Economics of Education Review. ISSN 0272-7757. 103. doi: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102595. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We assess the hypothesis that declining intergenerational economic mobility in Norway is attribut-able to a rising signaling value of education accompanied by more overeducation particularly among upper-class offspring. We identify five empirical facts that together point in this direction: • The educational earnings premium has risen, but only through the extensive (employment) margin. • The rising earnings premium is associated with completed degrees only. When educational at-tainment is measured as time actually invested, the premium has declined. • Both educational attainment and the labor market’s skill-requirements (as predicted by the oc-cupational distribution) have increased, but attainment has risen faster than requirements such that the incidence of overeducation has increased. • There is a steep positive social gradient in overeducation: Overeducation is more frequent and has risen faster among offspring in upper-class families. • There is a steep negative social gradient in non-employment: Non-employment is more frequent and has risen faster among offspring in lower-class families.

• Lillebø, Otto Sevaldson; Markussen, Simen; Røed, Knut & Zhao, Yuejun (2024). Not a Flying Start after All? A Comment. Journal of Political Economy. ISSN 0022-3808. 132(12), p. 4205–4212. doi: 10.1086/732218. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In a paper published in the Journal of Political Economy, Carneiro, Løken, and Salvanes (2015) reported large positive effects on offspring outcomes of a reform they described as introducing paid maternity leave in Norway. Causal identification rested on a discontinuity implying that only mothers giving birth after a specific cutoff date were entitled to paid leave. We show that the analysis relied on an incorrect description of the reform. The reform did not introduce paid maternity leave, but extended it by 5–6 weeks. The postulated discontinuity never existed as treatment and control groups had the same maternity leave conditions.

• Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut (2023). The rising influence of family background on early school performance. Economics of Education Review. ISSN 0272-7757. 97. doi: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2023.102491. Full text in Research Archive
• Brini, Elisa; Borgen, Solveig Topstad & Borgen, Nicolai T. (2023). Avoiding the eyeballing fallacy: Visualizing statistical differences between estimates using the pheatplot command. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/fghcd. Full text in Research Archive
• Hootegem, Arno Van; Røgeberg, Ole Jørgen; Bratsberg, Bernt Magne & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2023). Correlation between cognitive ability and educational attainment weakens over birth cohorts. Scientific Reports. 13(1). doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-44605-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Educational attainment is a key indicator of status and opportunity in meritocratic societies. However, it is unclear how educational expansion has affected the link between cognitive abilities and educational attainment. As a result, this study examines the correlation between cognitive ability and educational attainment across male birth cohorts in Norway. Utilizing administrative register data covering more than four decades, we investigate multiple measures of educational attainment and their connection to cognitive abilities. Our findings reveal a consistent decline in the correlation over time. These findings question the assumed shift towards meritocracy in educational systems and highlight a more complex relationship between cognitive ability and educational attainment.

• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne & Røgeberg, Ole (2023). Stability and change in male fertility patterns by cognitive ability across 32 birth cohorts. Biology Letters. ISSN 1744-9561. 19(6). doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0172. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad & Hermansen, Are Skeie (2023). Horizontal Advantage: Choice of Postsecondary Field of Study Among Children of Immigrants. Demography. ISSN 0070-3370. 60(4), p. 1031–1058. doi: 10.1215/00703370-10823537. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Educational expansion has raised the influence of sorting across postsecondary educational fields on children's future life chances. Yet, little is known about horizontal ethnic stratification in the choice of field of study among children of immigrant parents, whose parents often have moderate absolute levels of education relative to native-born parents but tend to be positively selected on education relative to nonmigrants in the origin country. Using rich administrative data from Norway, we study the educational careers of immigrant descendants relative to the careers of children of native-born parents. Our results show that children of immigrants from non-European countries have a higher likelihood of entering higher education and enrolling in high-paying fields of study compared with children of natives, despite having poorer school grades and disadvantaged family backgrounds. However, immigrant parents' positive selectivity provides limited insight into why children of immigrants exhibit high ambitions later in their postsecondary educational careers. These findings document a persistent pattern of horizontal ethnic advantage in postsecondary education in which ambitious children of immigrants are more likely to enter into more prestigious and economically rewarding fields of study than their fellow students with native-born parents.

• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne; Markussen, Simen; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Røed, Knut & Røgeberg, Ole (2022). Trends in Assortative Mating and Offspring Outcomes. The Economic Journal. ISSN 0013-0133. 133(651), p. 928–950. doi: 10.1093/ej/ueac071. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We study assortative mating of Norwegian parents over five decades and its consequences for offspring outcomes. Parents are characterized by the earnings decile of their parents (the offspring’s grandparents) as an indicator of social class. While assortative mating has remained stable across decades, parenthood has become more skewed toward the higher classes. Examining the influence on offspring education and employment, we find that the marginal effect of one parent’s class is smaller the higher is the class of the other. Overall, mating trends have contributed to slight improvements in average education and employment and reduced inequality in the offspring generation

• Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut (2022). Inntektsulikhet og intergenerasjonell mobilitet. In Frønes, Ivar & Kjølsrød, Lise (Ed.), Det norske samfunn : bind 2. Gyldendal Akademisk. ISSN 9788205572300. p. 382–406. Full text in Research Archive
• Mastekaasa, Arne & Birkelund, Gunn Elisabeth (2022). The intergenerational transmission of social advantage and disadvantage: comprehensive evidence on the association of parents’ and children’s educational attainments, class, earnings, and status. European Societies. ISSN 1461-6696. doi: 10.1080/14616696.2022.2059542. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In recent years, multidimensional conceptualizations of social origin have become increasingsly common in social stratification research. We provide evidence on the associations between four origin measures, parents’ class, status, earnings and education on the one hand and the corresponding offspring measures on the other. We also extend previous research on differences in origin effects at different levels of the children’s educational attainment and compare the predictive power of the social origin measures with regard to children’s top and bottom attainments on all outcome variables. We use Norwegian administrative data for nearly 500,000 individuals born between 1961 and 1970. The analyses show that parents’ education is a much stronger predictor for all outcomes than are their social class and status positions – both taken separately and together. Parental education also outperforms parents’ earnings, except when the offspring variable is also earnings. Thus, parents’ premarket characteristics seem to be more important than their labour market achievements for their children’s outcomes. A second major finding is that the predictive power of social origins is often quite similar for advantaged and disadvantaged outcomes. However, bottom earnings are much less strongly associated with social origins than are top earnings.

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• Røed, Knut (2025). Overutdanning og økonomisk mobilitet. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2024). Ulikhetsmaskinen: Arv. Full text in Research Archive
• Markussen, Simen; Røed, Knut; Zhao, Yuejun & Lillebø, Otto Sevaldson (2024). When published research turns out to be wrong. Full text in Research Archive
• Markussen, Simen; Røed, Knut; Zhao, Yuejun & Lillebø, Otto Sevaldson (2024). Not a flying start after all? Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2024). Sosial mobilitet over tid i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2024). Ulikhet og sosial mobilitet i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Rogne, Adrian Farner & Frisli, Siri (2024). Educational expansion reforms and intergenerational educational mobility in Norway. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/athxq. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad; Fedeli, Emanuele & Triventi, Moris (2024). The effect of top and bottom achievers in Italy and Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad (2023). Ethnic minorities in disadvantaged neighborhoods: Differential effects on educational outcomes. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad (2023). Ethnic minorities in disadvantaged neighborhoods: Differential effects on educational outcomes. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad; Borgen, Nicolai T. & Zachrisson, Henrik Daae (2023). Ethnic minorities in disadvantaged neighborhoods: Differential effects on educational outcomes. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). Overeducation and Economic Mobility. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). Overutdanning og sosial mobilitet. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). A reexamination of the effects of maternity leave benefits on long-run outcomes of children. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). Hva har skjedd med den sosiale mobiliteten i Norge? Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). Medikalisering av ungdom som årsak til uføretrygd. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2023). Familiebakgrunn og levekårsutfall for kvinner og menn i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne (2022). Refugee Economic and Political Integration: Lessons from Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Bratsberg, Bernt Magne (2022). Male Fertility: Facts, Distribution and Drivers of Inequality. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad (2022). Reaching Higher? Horizontal Stratification in the Educational Careers of Immigrant Descendants. Full text in Research Archive
• Borgen, Solveig Topstad & Hermansen, Are Skeie (2022). Reaching Higher? Horizontal Stratification in the Educational Careers of Immigrant Descendants. Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2022). The rising influence of family background on early school performance. Full text in Research Archive
• Fevang, Elisabeth (2022). Gråsoner i arbeidsmarkedet og størrelsen på arbeidskraftsreserven. Full text in Research Archive
• Fevang, Elisabeth (2022). Gråsoner i arbeidsmarkedet og størrelsen på arbeidskraftsreserven. Full text in Research Archive
• Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut (2022). Økende betydning av familiebakgrunn for barns skoleprestasjoner? Full text in Research Archive
• Markussen, Simen (2022). Kan inkludering lønne seg? Full text in Research Archive
• Røed, Knut (2022). A reexamination of the effects of maternity leave benefits on long-run outcomes of children. Full text in Research Archive
• Røgeberg, Ole; Harden, K. Paige & Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde (2024). Social change, modernization and the heritability of educational attainment. Open Science Foundation. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/v9ymk. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  According to sociological modernization theory, the shift towards a more meritocratic society should reduce the impact of family background on education and increase the importance of individual abilities. Sibling correlations have been used as an omnibus indicator of the importance of families for socioeconomic outcomes. However, sibling similarities in education are influenced by both the siblings’ genetics and their shared environments, making it challenging to interpret changes over time. This study examines the changing contributions of genetic and environmental factors to educational attainment among Norwegian twins born from 1915 to 1991. Using administrative data on education for more than 13,000 twin pairs, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical liability threshold model to estimate the heritability and shared environmental influences on educational attainment across birth cohorts, while accounting for changes in the educational system and population distributions. For women, the heritability of educational attainment increased throughout the 20th century, whereas the influence of shared environmental factors decreased. This pattern corresponds with sociocultural changes that promoted gender equality and expanded educational opportunities for women. In contrast, men exhibited no significant changes in heritability or shared environmental influences over time. This study adds to the body of research on how genetic influences on educational outcomes do – and do not – differ across historical time and social context.

• Borgen, Solveig Topstad; Borgen, Nicolai Topstad & Zachrisson, Henrik Daae (2024). Ethnic minorities in disadvantaged neighborhoods: Differential effects on educational outcomes. SocArXiv. doi: 10.31235/osf.io/y6krf. Full text in Research Archive
• Zhao, Yuejun; Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut (2024). School starting age and the social gradient in educational outcomes. IZA. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Can lowering school starting age promote equality of opportunities and reduce the achievement gaps between pupils? We provide evidence on the heterogeneous (positional) effects on early school performance of two mandatory schooling reforms in Norway specifically aimed at reducing achievement gaps based on family background and immigrant status. Whereas the first reform reduced the school starting age from seven to six, the second changed the first-year curriculum from a play-oriented kindergarten pedagogy to a learning-oriented school pedagogy. We apply repeated simple difference models to evaluate the two reforms based on high-quality administrative register data, using children’s grade point average (GPA) rank at age 15 to 16 and high school completion at age 21 as the main outcomes. We find no evidence that any of the reforms had the intended effect of reducing socioeconomic achievement gaps or immigrant-native differentials. Both reforms left educational inequalities more or less unchanged.

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