Abstract
Standard poverty measures cannot distinguish poverty a society lacks the means to end from poverty it could end by redistributing available affluence. We define the required rate of redistribution: the share of a society's affluent surplus that would close its own poverty gap. We use this rate to decompose standard poverty measures into avoidable and structural components and propose the Avoidable Poverty Index, which four axioms pin down uniquely. We show that a three-part division of societies into poor, middle, and affluent is necessary: any capacity-adjusted poverty index built on the poverty line alone rewards pushing marginal households into poverty. The index is readily computable from public data: we present results for 218 economies worldwide, using societal poverty lines that mirror national definitions. As of 2024, the affluent surplus exceeds the poverty gap in four-fifths of economies. Assuming that 40 percent of each economy's affluent surplus could reach its poor, 84 percent of the global societal poverty gap is avoidable. This share is up sharply from 54 percent in 1990, while structural poverty has stopped falling and is increasingly concentrated in low-income and conflict-affected economies.
The seminar will be held in room 1249 (12th floor) at Eilert Sundts Hus. The address is Moltke Moes vei 31.