Magne Mogstad

• Blandhol, Christine; Bonney, John; Mogstad, Magne & Torgovitsky, Alexander (2026). When is TSLS Actually LATE? Review of Economic Studies. ISSN 0034-6527. p. 1–35. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdag029. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Linear instrumental variable estimators, such as two-stage least squares (TSLS), are commonly interpreted as estimating non-negatively weighted averages of causal effects, referred to as local average treatment effects (LATEs). We examine whether the LATE interpretation actually applies to the types of TSLS specifications that are used in practice. We show that if the specification includes covariates—which most empirical work does—then the LATE interpretation does not apply in general. Instead, the TSLS estimator will, in general, reflect treatment effects for both compliers and always/never-takers, and some treatment effects for the always/never-takers will necessarily be negatively weighted. We show that the only specifications that have a LATE interpretation are “saturated” specifications that control for covariates nonparametrically, implying that such specifications are both sufficient and necessary for TSLS to have a LATE interpretation, at least without additional parametric assumptions. This result is concerning because, as we document, empirical researchers almost never control for covariates nonparametrically, and rarely discuss or justify parametric specifications of covariates. We apply our results to thirteen empirical studies and find strong evidence that the LATE interpretation of TSLS is far from accurate for the types of specifications actually used in practice. We offer concrete recommendations for practice motivated by our theoretical and empirical results.

• Chen, Kuan Ming; Ding, Ning; List, John A. & Mogstad, Magne (2025). Reservation Wages and Workers’ Valuation of Job Flexibility: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment. Journal of the European Economic Association. ISSN 1542-4766. 23(6), p. 2165–2211. doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvaf022. Full text in Research Archive
• Dhyne, Emmanuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Komatsu, Toshiaki; Mogstad, Magne & Tintelnot, Felix (2025). Firm Responses and Wage Effects of Foreign Demand Shocks with Fixed Labor Costs and Monopsony. The American Economic Review. ISSN 0002-8282. 115(12), p. 4328-68–4328-68. doi: https:/www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aer.20220948. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We quantify the firm responses and real wage effects of foreign demand shocks. We use Belgian microdata to construct firm-specific measures of demand shocks, which capture that firms pass on foreign demand shocks to domestic suppliers. Our estimates of firm responses to these shocks suggest that firms face upward-sloping labor supply curves and have sizable fixed labor costs. We specify a general equilibrium model with these features to quantify the aggregate effects of simulated tariff shocks on wages. We find that ignoring fixed labor costs substantially underestimates aggregate effects on wages, whereas incorporating upward-sloping labor supply appears less consequential.

• Mogstad, Magne; Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Torsvik, Gaute (2025). Income Equality in the Nordic Countries: Myths, Facts, and Lessons. Journal of Economic Literature. ISSN 0022-0515. 63(3), p. 791–839. doi: 10.1257/jel.20251636. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a socioeconomic model that combines low income inequality with prosperity and growth. This article critically assesses that claim by integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence to explain how the Nordic model functions and why these countries experience low inequality. Our analysis suggests that income equality in the Nordics is largely driven by a significant compression of hourly wages, reducing returns to labor market skills and education. This appears to result from a wage bargaining system characterized by strong coordination within and across industries. This finding challenges other commonly cited explanations for Nordic income equality, such as redistribution through the tax transfer system, public spending on goods that complement employment, and public policies promoting equal skills and human capital. We consider broader lessons for economies aiming to reduce inequality and conclude by highlighting several under-explored or unresolved questions. (JEL D31, E23, H23, J24, J31, J52)

• Bazylik, Sergei; Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wilhelm, Daniel (2025). Finite- and large-sample inference for ranks using multinomial data with an application to ranking political parties. Journal of Econometrics. ISSN 0304-4076. 250. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2025.106010. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is common to rank different categories by means of preferences that are revealed through data on choices. A prominent example is the ranking of political candidates or parties using the estimated share of support each one receives in surveys or polls about political attitudes. Since these rankings are computed using estimates of the share of support rather than the true share of support, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the true ranking of the political candidates or parties. In this paper, we consider the problem of accounting for such uncertainty by constructing confidence sets for the rank of each category. We consider both the problem of constructing marginal confidence sets for the rank of a particular category as well as simultaneous confidence sets for the ranks of all categories. A distinguishing feature of our analysis is that we exploit the multinomial structure of the data to develop confidence sets that are valid in finite samples. We additionally develop confidence sets using the bootstrap that are valid only approximately in large samples. We use our methodology to rank political parties in Australia using data from the 2019 Australian Election Survey. We find that our finite-sample confidence sets are informative across the entire ranking of political parties, even in Australian territories with few survey respondents and/or with parties that are chosen by only a small share of the survey respondents. In contrast, the bootstrap-based confidence sets may sometimes be considerably less informative. These findings motivate us to compare these methods in an empirically-driven simulation study, in which we conclude that our finite-sample confidence sets often perform better than their large-samp

• Kroft, Kory; Luo, Y; Mogstad, Magne & Setzler, Bradley (2025). Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry. The American Economic Review. ISSN 0002-8282. 115(9), p. 2926–2969. doi: 10.1257/aer.20220577. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We develop, identify, and estimate a model of imperfect competition in both labor and product markets. Our context is the US construction industry, where firms compete for workers, private market projects, and government procurements. Our empirical approach leverages bidding data from procurement auctions linked to employer-employee tax records. We find imperfect competition in both markets generates a total wage markdown of more than 30 percent and a total price markup of around 45 percent. By contrast, if one erroneously assumed a perfectly competitive product (labor) market, then one would conclude wages (prices) are marked down (up) by only 20 percent (16 percent).

• Mogstad, Magne; Dhyne, Emmanuel; Kikkawa, K*; Komatsu, Thoshiaki & Tintelnot, Felix (2025). Foreign Demand Shocks to Production Networks: Firm Responses and Worker Impacts. The American Economic Review. ISSN 0002-8282. doi: https:/pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20220948. Full text in Research Archive
• Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon Boyack; Løken, Katrine Vellesen & Mogstad, Magne (2024). Domestic Violence Reports and the Mental Health and Well-Being of Victims and Their Children. The Journal of human resources. ISSN 0022-166X. 59. doi: 10.3368/jhr.1222-12698R1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We study the costs associated with domestic violence (DV) in Norway by comparing outcomes before and after a DV report, using those who will be victimized in the future as controls. A DV report is associated with increased mental health diagnoses for both victims and their children and reduced financial resources. Victims experience marital dissolution, more doctor visits, lower employment, reduced earnings, and higher use of disability insurance. Their children are more likely to receive child protective services and commit a crime. Using a complementary regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find declines in children’s test scores and grade completion.

• Hvide, Hans K.; Meling, Tom G.; Mogstad, Magne & Vestad, Ola L. (2024). Broadband Internet and the Stock Market Investments of Individual Investors. Journal of Finance. ISSN 0022-1082. 79(3), p. 2163–2194. doi: 10.1111/jofi.13335. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We study the effects of broadband internet use on the investment decisions of individual investors. A public program in Norway provides plausibly exogenous variation in internet use. Our instrumental variables estimates show that internet use causes a substantial increase in stock market participation, driven primarily by increased fund ownership. Existing investors tilt their portfolios toward funds, thereby obtaining more diversified portfolios and higher Sharpe ratios, and do not increase their trading activity in stocks. Overall, access to high-speed internet spurs a “democratization of finance,” with individuals making investment decisions that are more in line with the advice from portfolio theory.

• Heinesen, Eskil; Hvid, Christian; Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen; Leuven, Edwin & Mogstad, Magne (2024). Instrumental Variables with Unordered Treatments: Theory and Evidence from Returns to Fields of Study. Journal of Labor Economics. ISSN 0734-306X. doi: 10.1086/733225. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wilhelm, Daniel (2024). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighbourhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Review of Economic Studies. ISSN 0034-6527. 91(1), p. 476–518. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdad006. Full text in Research Archive
• Bhuller, Manudeep; Havnes, Tarjei; McCauley, Jeremy & Mogstad, Magne (2024). How the Internet Changed the Market for Print Media. American economic journal. Applied economics. ISSN 1945-7782. 16(2), p. 318–358. doi: 10.1257/app.20210689. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander & Walters, Christopher R. (2024). Policy evaluation with multiple instrumental variables. Journal of Econometrics. ISSN 0304-4076. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105718. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Kroft, Kory; Luo, Y & Setzler, Bradley (2023). Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry Magne Mogstad. American Economic Review: Insights (AER). ISSN 2640-205X. Full text in Research Archive
• Graber, Michael; Mogstad, Magne; Golosov, Mikhail & Novgorodsky, David (2023). How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income. Quarterly Journal of Economics. ISSN 0033-5533. 139(2), p. 1321–1395. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjad053. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wilhelm, Daniel (2023). A Comment on: “Invidious Comparisons: Ranking and Selection as Compound Decisions” by Jiaying Gu and Roger Koenker. Econometrica. ISSN 0012-9682. 91(1), p. 53–60. doi: 10.3982/ECTA20460. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In this comment on their paper, we first briefly summarize in Section 2 the most general framework for the problem that they consider. We then specialize their framework so as to highlight a connection (already noted by the authors themselves) to the multiple testing literature. By doing so, we facilitate a comparison in Section 3 with a closely related multiple testing problem considered in Mogstad, Romano, Shaikh, and Wilhelm(2020). Throughout our discussion, in addition to some key distinctions in the a symptotic framework employed in each paper, we emphasize two additional differences: differences in the choice of error rate for each multiple testing problem and differences in the way in which the θiare treated. In Section 4, we discuss the practical importance of these differences. To further emphasize what we feel are important distinctions in the interpretation of the results provided by the two methods, we cast this discussion in the context of the aforementioned teacher value-added example

• Åkerman, Anders; Leuven, Edwin & Mogstad, Magne (2022). Information Frictions, Internet and the Relationship between Distance and Trade. American economic journal. Applied economics. ISSN 1945-7782. 14(1), p. 133–163. doi: 10.1257/app.20190589. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We examine how the adoption of information communication technology affects bilateral trade. The context is a public program in Norway that rolled out broadband access points leading to plausibly exogenous variation in the availability and adoption of broadband by firms. We find that broadband makes trade patterns more sensitive to distance and economic size. These results are consistent with a model of trade with variable elasticity of demand. The model predicts that adoption of a technology that lowers information frictions enlarges the choice set of exporters and importers. This makes demand more elastic with respect to trade costs and thus distance.

• Bhuller, Manudeep Singh; Moene, Karl Ove; Mogstad, Magne & Vestad, Ola Lotherington (2022). Facts and Fantasies about Wage Setting and Collective Bargaining. Journal of Economic Perspectives. ISSN 0895-3309. 36(4), p. 29–52. doi: 10.1257/jep.36.4.29. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In this article, we document and discuss salient features of collective bargaining systems in the OECD countries, with the goal of debunking some misconceptions and myths and revitalizing the general interest in wage setting and collective bargaining. We hope that such an interest may help close the gap between how economists tend to model wage setting and how wages are actually set. Canonical models of competitive labor markets, monopsony, and search and matching all assume a decentralized wage setting where individual firms and workers determine wages. In most advanced economies, however, it is common that firms or employer associations bargain with unions over wages, producing collective bargaining systems. We show that the characteristics of these systems vary in important ways across advanced economies, with regards to both the scope and the structure of collective bargaining.

• Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem & Wilhelm, Daniel (2022). Statistical Uncertainty in the Ranking of Journals and Universities. AEA Papers and Proceedings. ISSN 2574-0768. 112, p. 630–634. doi: 10.1257/pandp.20221064. Full text in Research Archive
• Bonhomme, Stephane; Holzheu, Kerstin; Lamadon, Thibaut; Manresa, Elena; Mogstad, Magne & Setzler, Bradley (2022). How Much Should we Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting? Journal of Labor Economics. ISSN 0734-306X. doi: 10.1086/720009. Full text in Research Archive
• Lamadon, Thibaut; Mogstad, Magne & Setzler, Bradley Jackson (2022). Imperfect Competition, Compensating Differentials, and Rent Sharing in the U.S. Labor Market. The American Economic Review. ISSN 0002-8282. 112(1), p. 169–212. doi: 10.1257/aer.20190790. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We quantify the importance of imperfect competition in the US labor market by estimating the size of labor market rents earned by American firms and workers. We construct a matched employeremployee panel dataset by combining the universe of US business and worker tax records for the period 2001–2015. Using this panel data, we identify and estimate an equilibrium model of the labor market with two-sided heterogeneity where workers view firms as imperfect substitutes because of heterogeneous preferences over nonwage job characteristics. The model allows us to draw inference about imperfect competition, worker sorting, compensating differentials, and rent sharing.

• Dhyne, Emmanuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Mogstad, Magne & Tintelnot, Felix (2021). Trade and Domestic Production Networks. Review of Economic Studies. ISSN 0034-6527. 88(2), p. 643–688. doi: 10.1093/restud/rdaa062. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We examine how many and what kind of firms ultimately rely on foreign inputs, sell to foreign markets, and are affected by trade shocks. To capture that firms can trade indirectly by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both domestic firm-to-firm sales and foreign trade transactions. We find that most firms use a lot of foreign inputs, but only a small number of firms show that dependence through direct imports. While direct exporters are rare, a majority of firms are indirectly exporting. In most firms, however, indirect export is quantitatively modest, and sales at home are the key source of revenue. We show that what matters for the transmission of foreign demand shocks to a firm’s revenue is how much the firm ultimately sells to foreign markets, not whether these sales are from direct or indirect export.

• Bertrand, Marianne; Mogstad, Magne & Mountjoy, Jack (2021). Improving Educational Pathways to Social Mobility: Evidence from Norway’s Reform 94. Journal of Labor Economics. ISSN 0734-306X. 39(4). doi: 10.1086/713009. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We study the impacts of a major reform to vocational secondary education that aimed to move beyond the trade-off between providing occupational skills and closing off academic opportunities. Norway’s Reform 94 integrated more general education into the vocational track, offered vocational students a pathway to college, and increased access to apprenticeships. We identify reform impacts through a difference-in-discontinuity research design applied to linked population registries. The reform substantially increased initial vocational enrollment, but with divergent consequences by gender. Overall, the reform succeeded at improving social mobility, particularly for disadvantaged men, but it somewhat exacerbated the gender gap in adult earnings.

• Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander & Walters, Christopher R. (2021). The causal interpretation of two-stage least squares with multiple instrumental variables. The American Economic Review. ISSN 0002-8282. 111(11), p. 3663–3698. doi: 10.1257/aer.20190221. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Empirical researchers often combine multiple instrumental variables (IVs) for a single treatment using two-stage least squares (2SLS). When treatment effects are heterogeneous, a common justification for including multiple IVs is that the 2SLS estimand can be given a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of local average treatment effects (LATEs). This justification requires the well-known monotonicity condition. However, we show that with more than one instrument, this condition can only be satisfied if choice behavior is effectively homogeneous. Based on this finding, we consider the use of multiple IVs under a weaker, partial monotonicity condition. We characterize empirically verifiable sufficient and necessary conditions for the 2SLS estimand to be a positively weighted average of LATEs under partial monotonicity. We apply these results to an empirical analysis of the returns to college with multiple instruments. We show that the standard monotonicity condition is at odds with the data. Nevertheless, our empirical checks reveal that the 2SLS estimate retains a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of the effects of college attendance among complier groups.

• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards? Research Briefs in Economic Policy / Cato Institute. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Do employees benefit from worker representation on corporate boards? Economists and policymakers are keenly interested in this question – especially lately, as worker representation is widely promoted as an important way to ensure the interests and views of the workers. To investigate this question, we apply a variety of research designs to administrative data from Norway. We find that a worker is paid more and faces less earnings risk if she gets a job in a firm with worker representation on the corporate board. However, these gains in wages and declines in earnings risk are not caused by worker representation per se. Instead, the wage premium and reduced earnings risk reflect that firms with worker representation are likely to be larger and unionized, and that larger and unionized firms tend to both pay a premium and provide better insurance to workers against fluctuations in firm performance. Conditional on the firm’s size and unionization rate, worker representation has little if any effect. Taken together, these findings suggest that while workers may indeed benefit from being employed in firms with worker representation, they would not benefit from legislation mandating worker representation on corporate boards.

• Aaberge, Rolf; Havnes, Tarjei & Mogstad, Magne (2021). Ranking intersecting distribution functions. Journal of applied econometrics. ISSN 0883-7252. 36(6), p. 639–662. doi: 10.1002/jae.2832. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Second-degree dominance has become a widely accepted criterion for ordering distribution functions according to social welfare. However, it provides only a partial ordering, and it may fail to rank distributions that intersect. To rank intersecting distribution functions, we propose a general approach based on rank-dependent theory. This approach avoids making arbitrary restrictions or parametric assumptions about social welfare functions and allows researchers to identify the weakest set of assumptions needed to rank distributions according to social welfare. Our approach is based on two complementary sequences of nested dominance criteria. The first (second) sequence extends second-degree stochastic dominance by placing more emphasis on differences that occur in the lower (upper) part of the distribution. The sequences characterize two separate systems of nested subfamilies of rank-dependent social welfare functions. This allows us to identify the least restrictive rank-dependent social preferences that give an unambiguous ranking of a given set of distribution functions. We also provide an axiomatization of the sequences of dominance criteria and the corresponding subfamilies of social welfare functions. We show the usefulness of our approach using two empirical applications; the first assesses the welfare implications of changes in household income distributions over the business cycle, while the second performs a social welfare comparison of the actual and counterfactual outcome distributions from a policy experiment.

• Kellogg, Maxwell; Mogstad, Magne; Pouliot, Guillaume A. & Torgovitsky, Alexander (2021). Combining Matching and Synthetic Controls to Trade off Biases from Extrapolation and Interpolation. Journal of the American Statistical Association. ISSN 0162-1459. 116(536), p. 1804–1816. doi: 10.1080/01621459.2021.1979562. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The synthetic control (SC) method is widely used in comparative case studies to adjust for differences in pretreatment characteristics. SC limits extrapolation bias at the potential expense of interpolation bias, whereas traditional matching estimators have the opposite properties. This complementarity motives us to propose a matching and synthetic control (or MASC) estimator as a model averaging estimator that combines the standard SC and matching estimators. We show how to use a rolling-origin cross-validation procedure to train the MASC to resolve tradeoffs between interpolation and extrapolation bias. We use a series of empirically based placebo and Monte Carlo simulations to shed light on when the SC, matching, MASC and penalized SC estimators do (and do not) perform well. Then, we apply these estimators to examine the economic costs of conflicts in the context of Spain.

• Fagereng, Andreas; Mogstad, Magne & Rønning, Marte (2021). Why Do Wealthy Parents Have Wealthy Children? Journal of Political Economy. ISSN 0022-3808. 129(3), p. 703–756. doi: 10.1086/712446. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We show that family background matters significantly for children’s accumulation of wealth and investor behavior as adults, even when removing the genetic connection between children and the parents raising them. The analysis is made possible by linking Korean-born children who were adopted at infancy by Norwegian parents to a population panel data set with detailed information on wealth and socio-economic characteristics. The mechanism by which these Korean- Norwegian adoptees were assigned to adoptive families is known and effectively random. This mechanism allows us to estimate the causal effects from an adoptee being raised in one type of family versus another.

View all works in NVA

• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Hvorfor innovere når man kan regulere? Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Dyre klimatiltak? Skyld på utlandet. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Klimaministerens papirhus. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). To ubehagelige sannheter. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Kvaløy blander fag og politikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Parisavtalen og knappenålshodet. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Konklusjon uten analyse i klimapolitikken. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn & Mogstad, Magne (2026). Norges KI-problem er overivrige politikere. doi: https:/www.dn.no/fredagskronikken/kunstig-intelligens/innovasjon/ki/norges-ki-problem-er-overivrige-politikere/2-1-2044250. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Torsvik, Gaute; Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Fettig, David (2025). Income Equality in the Nordic Countries: Myths, Facts, and Lessons. doi: https:/bfi.uchicago.edu/insights/income-equality-in-the-nordic-countries-myths-facts-and-lessons/. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Torsvik, Gaute (2025). The Nordic model and income equality: Myths, facts, and policy lessons. http://www.voxeu.org/. doi: https:/cepr.org/voxeu/columns/nordic-model-and-income-equality-myths-facts-and-policy-lessons. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn; Mogstad, Magne & Sørgard, Lars (2025). Ingen grunn til å frikjenne Norgesprisen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Eksport av strøm og lav prisfølsomhet frikjenner ikke Norgesprisen. Bakeren har mer bruk for strømmen i bakeriet enn på hytta.

• Harding, Torfinn; Mogstad, Magne & Sørgard, Lars (2025). Jens Stoltenberg, frels oss fra Norgesprisen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Finansminister Stoltenberg, led oss ikke inn i økonomisk populisme, men frels oss fra Støres faste strømpriser.

• Markussen, Simen; Bensnes, Simon Søbstad; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Håvarstein, Morten; Mogstad, Magne & Raaum, Oddbjørn [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Hva koster egentlig en skattelette til personer med lav inntekt? doi: https:/www.dn.no/innlegg/okonomi/eksperiment/skatt/hva-koster-egentlig-en-skattelette-til-personer-med-lav-inntekt/2-1-1835500. Full text in Research Archive
• Bensnes, Simon Søbstad; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Markussen, Simen; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Håvarstein, Morten & Mogstad, Magne [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Vi trenger 100.000 som får arbeidsfradrag i forsøket. doi: https:/www.dn.no/innlegg/skatt/sysselsetting/arbeid/vi-trenger-100000-som-far-arbeidsfradrag-i-forsoket/2-1-1831957. Full text in Research Archive
• Bensnes, Simon Søbstad; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Håvarstein, Morten; Markussen, Simen; Mogstad, Magne & Schreiner, Ragnhild Camilla [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Joggesko gir lite kunnskap om arbeidsfradrag. doi: https:/www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/B0a2JG/joggesko-gir-lite-kunnskap-om-arbeidsfradrag. Full text in Research Archive
• Bensnes, Simon Søbstad; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Markussen, Simen; Mogstad, Magne & Torsvik, Gaute [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Ja til en mer kunnskapsbasert skattepolitikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Bensnes, Simon Søbstad; Raaum, Oddbjørn; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Markussen, Simen; Mogstad, Magne & Håvarstein, Morten [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Skattejoker Nord? Aftenposten vil kanskje innse at den møter seg selv i døren. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Schreiner, Ragnhild Camilla & Torsvik, Gaute (2024). Debatt: Ingen god grunn til å beholde ekstra arbeidsgiveravgift. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Steinar Holden og Knut Røed har et svakt faglig grunnlag for sitt forslag om å beholde den midlertidige ekstra arbeidsgiveravgiften.

• Næss, Ole-Andreas N & Mogstad, Magne (2024). På høy tid å revurdere fritaksmetoden. Full text in Research Archive
• Løken, Katrine; Bhuller, Manudeep Singh; Dahl, Gordon Boyack & Mogstad, Magne (2023). Domestic violence and the mental health and wellbeing of victims and their children. http://www.voxeu.org/. Full text in Research Archive
• Kroft, Kory; Luo, Yao; Mogstad, Magne & Setzler, Bradley Jackson (2022). Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w27325. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We quantify the importance of imperfect competition in the US construction industry by estimating the size of rents earned by American firms and workers. To obtain a comprehensive measure of the total rents and to understand its sources, we take into account that rents may arise due to markdown of wages in the labor market, or markup of prices in the product market, or both. Our analyses combine the universe of US business and worker tax records with newly collected records from US procurement auctions. We use this data to identify and estimate a model where construction firms compete with one another for projects in the product market and for workers in the labor market. The firms may participate both in the private market and in government projects procured through auctions. We find evidence of considerable wage- and price-setting power. This imperfect competition creates sizable rents, three-fourths of which is captured by the firms. The incentives of firms to mark down wages and reduce employment due to wage-setting power are attenuated by their price-setting power in the product market.

• Aaberge, Rolf; Halvorsen, Elin; Mogstad, Magne; Nøstbakken, Linda; Thoresen, Thor Olav & Vestad, Ola Lotherington [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2022). Ulike perspektiver gir nyanserte svar. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  https://www.dn.no/innlegg/ulikhet/ssb/forskning/innlegg-ssb-om-ulikhet-ulike-perspektiver-gir-nyanserte-svar/2-1-1218843

• Golosov, Mikhail; Graber, Michael; Mogstad, Magne & Novgorodsky, David (2022). How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w29000. Full text in Research Archive
• Dutz, Deniz; Huitfeldt, Ingrid Marie Schaumburg; Lacouture, Santiago; Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander & Dijk, Winnie van (2022). Selection in Surveys. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w29549. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne & Torsvik, Gaute (2022). Family Background, Neighborhoods and Intergenerational Mobility. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w28874. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper reviews the literature on intergenerational mobility. While our review is centered around the large empirical literature on this topic, we also give a brief discussion of some of the relevant theory. We consider three strands of the empirical literature. First, we discuss how to measure intergenerational persistence in various socio-economic outcomes. We discuss both measurement challenges and some notable findings. We then turn to quantifying the importance of family environment and genetic factors for children's outcomes. We describe the pros and cons of various approaches as well as key findings. The third strand is concerned with drawing causal inferences about how children's outcomes are affected by specific features of their family environment. We discuss a wide range of environmental features, including the neighborhoods in which children grow up. We critically assess what conclusions one may and may not draw from certain celebrated studies of neighborhoods and intergenerational mobility.

• Mogstad, Magne; Moene, Karl Ove; Bhuller, Manudeep Singh & Vestad, Ola Lotherington (2022). Facts and Fantasies about Wage Setting and Collective Bargaining. BFI Working Papers. 121. Full text in Research Archive
• Duncan, Greg; Kalil, Ariel; Mogstad, Magne & Rege, Mari (2022). Investing in Early Childhood Development in Preschool and at Home. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w29985. Full text in Research Archive
• Dhyne, Emmaunuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Kong, Xianglong; Mogstad, Magne & Tintelnot, Felix (2022). Endogenous Production Networks with Fixed Costs. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. Full text in Research Archive
• Dhyne, Emmaunuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Komatsu, Thoshiaki; Mogstad, Magne & Tintelnot, Felix (2022). Foreign Demand Shocks to Production Networks: Firm Responses and Worker Impacts. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w30447. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn; Mogstad, Magne; Storesletten, Kjetil & Torsvik, Gaute (2022). Trenger vi en eiertrygd? Full text in Research Archive
• Graber, Michael; Mogstad, Magne; Torsvik, Gaute & Vestad, Ola Lotherington (2022). Behavioral responses to income taxation in Norway. Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo. ISSN 0809-8786. Full text in Research Archive
• Canay, Ivan A.; Mogstad, Magne & Mountjoy, Jack (2022). On the Use of Outcome Tests for Detecting Bias in Decision Making. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w27802. Full text in Research Archive
• Heinesen, Eskil; Hvid, Christian; Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen; Leuven, Edwin & Mogstad, Magne (2022). Instrumental variables with unordered treatments: Theory and evidence from returns to fields of study. Memorandum from Department of Economics, University of Oslo. ISSN 0809-8786. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Bonney, John; Mogstad, Magne & Torgovitsky, Alexander (2022). When is 2SLS actually LATE? NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. Full text in Research Archive
• Hvide, Hans K.; Meling, Tom Grimstvedt; Mogstad, Magne & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Broadband internet and the stock market investments of individual investors. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievements across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for ranks with applications to mobility across neighborhoods and academic achievement across countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievements across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2021). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievements across Countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Do employees benefit from worker representation on corporate boards? Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Full text in Research Archive
• Kirkebøen, Lars Johannessen; Leuven, Edwin & Mogstad, Magne (2021). College as a Marriage Market. Discussion Papers. ISSN 0803-074X. Full text in Research Archive
• Bazylik, Sergei; Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem & Wilhelm, Daniel (2021). Finite- and Large-Sample Inference for Ranks using Multinomial Data with an Application to Ranking Political Parties. NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w29519. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne & Piacquadio, Paolo Giovanni (2021). Linear and non-linear measures of inequality. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne & Piacquadio, Paolo Giovanni (2021). Linear and non-linear inequality measures. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne; Vestad, Ola L. & Vestre, Arnstein (2021). Økonomisk ulikhet i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Vestad, Ola L.; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Blandhol, Christine (2021). Do employees benefit from worker representation on corporate boards? NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w28269. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne; Vestad, Ola L. & Vestre, Arnstein (2021). Luftige påstander om skatt og ulikhet i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne; Vestad, Ola L. & Vestre, Arnstein (2021). Tankeløse tenketankere. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Økonomisk ulikhet i Norge i det 21. århundre. Full text in Research Archive
• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Økonomisk ulikhet i Norge i det 21. århundre. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola L. (2021). Benefit to employees of worker representation on corporate boards. http://www.voxeu.org/. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Romano, Joseph P.; Shaikh, Azeem M. & Wilhelm, Daniel (2020). Inference for Ranks with Applications to Mobility across Neighborhoods and Academic Achievement across Countries. BFI Working Papers. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighborhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings are invariably computed using estimates rather than the true values of these features. As a result, there may be considerable uncertainty concerning the rank of each population. In this paper, we consider the problem of accounting for such uncertainty by constructing confidence sets for the rank of each population. We consider both the problem of constructing marginal confidence sets for the rank of a particular population as well as simultaneous confidence sets for the ranks of all populations. We show how to construct such confidence sets under weak assumptions. An important feature of all of our constructions is that they remain computationally feasible even when the number of populations is very large. We apply our theoretical results to re-examine the rankings of both neighborhoods in the United States in terms of intergenerational mobility and developed countries in terms of academic achievement. The conclusions about which countries do best and worst at reading, math, and science are fairly robust to accounting for uncertainty. By comparison, several celebrated findings about intergenerational mobility in the United states are not robust to taking uncertainty into account.

• Mogstad, Magne (2020). Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne (2020). Inference for ranks with applications to mobility across neighborhoods and academic achievement across countries. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola Lotherington (2020). Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards? NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w28269. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola L. (2020). Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards? BFI Working Papers. Full text in Research Archive
• Blandhol, Christine; Mogstad, Magne; Nilsson, Peter & Vestad, Ola Lotherington (2020). Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards? CESifo Working Papers. ISSN 1617-9595. Full text in Research Archive
• Mogstad, Magne; Lamadon, Thibaut; Bonhomme, Stephane; Holzheu, Kerstin; Manresa, Elena & Setzler, Bradley Jackson (2020). How Much Should we Trust Estimates of Firm Effects and Worker Sorting? NBER Working Paper Series. ISSN 0898-2937. doi: 10.3386/w27368. Full text in Research Archive
• Harding, Torfinn; Mogstad, Magne; Moxnes, Andreas & Storesletten, Kjetil (2020). Feil å "gjøre alt som trengs" - må finne ut "hva som trengs". Full text in Research Archive
• Gaarder, Ingvil Benterud; Grindaker, Morten Haabeth; Meling, Tom G.; Mogstad, Magne & Mogstad, Ingvil Gaarder, Morten Grindaker, Tom G. Meling, Magne (2026). Green Waste. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w34649. Full text in Research Archive
• Deshpande, Manasi; Kellogg, Maxwell Dylan; Mogstad, Magne & Tseng, Kuan-Ju (2026). Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w35300. Full text in Research Archive
• Graber, Michael; Håvarstein, Morten; Mogstad, Magne; Torsvik, Gaute & Vestad, Ola L. (2026). Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w34987. Full text in Research Archive
• Graber, Michael; Håvarstein, Morten; Mogstad, Magne; Torsvik, Gaute & Vestad, Ola L. (2026). Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi: 10.3386/w34987. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The elasticity of taxable income (ETI) parameter is a key quantity in empirical analysis of tax policy and labor supply. We examine when a commonly applied class of ETI estimands can be used to learn about individuals’ ETI parameters and their (un)compensated elasticities of labor supply. We begin by providing necessary and sufficient conditions for these estimands to be given a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of heterogeneous ETI parameters. We then apply these results to empirically analyze a reform of the Norwegian tax system that reduced the marginal tax rates on middle and high incomes. The estimated ETI parameters increase steadily with income, meaning high-income individuals are more responsive to tax changes than middle-income individuals. Next, we show how (un)compensated elasticities of labor supply can be bounded directly from the ETI estimands, or point identified by combining these estimands with estimates of earnings responses to lottery winnings. The results suggest an (un)compensated elasticity of 0.1 (0.0) for middle-income individuals. The (un)compensated elasticity estimates increase steadily with income to around 0.45 (0.3) for high-income individuals. These findings imply a substantial excess burden of taxation, and that reducing top-income tax rates would increase tax revenue. Our findings are also informative about how the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the Frisch elasticity vary across the income distribution.

• Mogstad, Magne; Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar & Torsvik, Gaute (2025). Income Equality in The Nordic Countries: Myths, Facts, and Lessons. Institutt for samfunnsøkonomi. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Policymakers, public commentators, and researchers often cite the Nordic countries as examples of a social and economic model that successfully combines low income inequality with prosperity and growth. This article aims to critically assess this claim by integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence to illustrate how the Nordic model functions and why these countries experience low inequality. Our analysis suggests that income equality in the Nordics is primarily driven by a significant compression of hourly wages, reducing the returns to labor market skills and education. This appears to be achieved through a wage bargaining system characterized by strong coordination both within and across industries. This finding contrasts with other commonly cited explanations for Nordic income equality, such as redistribution through the taxtransfer system, public spending on goods that complement employment, and public policies aimed at equalizing skills and human capital distribution. We consider the potential lessons for other economies that seek to reduce income equality. We conclude by discussing several underexplored or unresolved questions and issues.

• Ding, Ning & Mogstad, Magne (2022). ESSAYS IN LABOR ECONOMICS. University of Chicago. Full text in Research Archive
• Bhuller, Manudeep Singh; Dahl, Gordon Boyack; Løken, Katrine & Mogstad, Magne (2022). Domestic Violence and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children. Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Almost one third of women worldwide report some form of physical or sexual violence by a partner in their lifetime, yet little is known about the mental health and well-being effects for either victims or their children. We study the costs associated with domestic violence (DV) in the context of Norway, where we can link offenders to victims and their children over time. Our difference-in-differences framework uses those who will be victimized in the future as controls. We find that a DV report involving the police is associated with large changes in the home environment, including marital dissolution and a corresponding decline in financial resources. A DV report increases mental health visits by 35% for victims and by 19% for their children in the year of the event, effects which taper off over time for the victim, but not for children. Victims also experience more doctor visits, lower employment, reduced earnings and a higher use of disability insurance while their children are more likely to receive child protective services and commit a crime. Using a complementary RD design, we find that a DV report results in declines both in children’s test scores and completion of the first year of high school.

• Aaberge, Rolf; Mogstad, Magne; Vestad, Ola L. & Vestre, Arnstein (2021). Økonomisk ulikhet i Norge i det 21. århundre. Statistisk sentralbyrå (SSB). ISSN 9788258714238. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Formålet med denne rapporten er å beskrive utviklingen i ulikhet i Norge i perioden 2001–2018. Rapporten beskriver ulikhet i inntekt og formue, fordelingen av skattebyrden og graden av progressivitet i skatte- og avgiftssystemet. I tillegg sammenlignes fordelingen av skattebyrden og progressiviteten i skatte- og avgiftssystemet i Norge med fordelingen av skattebyrden og progressiviteten i skatte- og avgiftssystemet i USA. Rapporten supplerer den offisielle inntekts-, formues- og skattestatistikken med ny informasjon om inntekts- og formuesfordelingen i Norge ved å sammenlikne målene for inntekt, formue og skatt som benyttes i offisiell statistikk med mer fullstendige mål for inntekt og formue. I målingen av inntekt inkluderes følgende tre inntektskomponenter som er utelatt fra inntektsmålene som benyttes i offisiell statistikk: (i) personlige eieres andel av tilbakeholdte overskudd i private selskaper; (ii) verdien av boligtjenester for boligeierhushold; og (iii) kapitalgevinster på bolig og annen fast eiendom og verdipapirer (unntatt aksjer). I tillegg belyser vi fordelingseffekten av verdien av kommunale tjenester ved å studere ulikhet i fordelingen av et utvidet inntektsmål som inkluderer verdien av kommunale tjenester. I målingen av formue benyttes et mål for boligformue som er basert på faktiske markedsverdier (observert i transaksjonsdata) i stedet for beregnede verdier fra skattemeldingen.

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