Fenella Cordova Carpena

• Brodeur, Abel; Mikola, Derek; Cook, Nikolai; Fiala, Lenka; Brailey, Thomas & Briggs, Ryan [Show all 347 contributors for this article] (2026). Reproducibility and robustness of economics and political science research. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 652, p. 151–156. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10251-x. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Science aspires to be cumulative. Reproducibility efforts strengthen science by testing the reliability of published findings, promoting self-correction, and informing policy-making1. Computational reproductions, whereby independent researchers reproduce the results of published studies, are an essential diagnostic tool2–10. Such efforts should have greater visibility11–16. However, little social science reproduction and robustness has been conducted at scale10,13,17–23. Here we reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks of 110 articles that were published in leading economics and political science journals with mandatory data and code sharing policies17,18. We found that more than 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, our reanalyses showed that 72% of statistically significant estimates remain significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size is nearly the same as the originally published effect size (that is, 99% of the published effect size). Additionally, 6 independent research teams examined 12 pre-specified hypotheses about determinants of robustness. Research teams with more experience found lower levels of robustness, and robustness did not correlate with author characteristics or data availability. Robustness checks and reproduction of analyses with existing and updated data based on 110 articles in economics and political science journals with data and code-sharing requirements found high levels of robustness and reproducibility and determined that robustness was not dependent on author characteristics or data availability.

• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2024). Entertainment-Education for Better Health: Insights from a Field Experiment in India. Journal of Development Studies. ISSN 0022-0388. p. 1–18. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2024.2312832. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Entertainment-education has been touted as a potent delivery channel for health education campaigns. Yet, there is little evidence of its causal effects. This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by using a field experiment in India to study two questions on the efficacy of health entertainment-education. First, can health entertainment-education, particularly through films that show role models and draw on emotions, lead to lasting, positive change in health knowledge and behavior? Second, can financial incentives for ex-post health literacy boost the effectiveness of health entertainment-education? The results show that health entertainment-education successfully increased health knowledge (e.g. knowledge about cleanliness and hygiene) by 16 percent. These gains persist almost one year later, although there were no observed impacts on health behaviors. Further, financial incentives do not appear to have any effects. These insights contribute to our knowledge of what works for health education in low-income settings, so that future education campaigns can be crafted with more meaningful impact.

• Carpena, Fenella & Bejarano, Nury Bibian (2023). Less Conflict, More Food Security: A Case Study of Cauca, Colombia. Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 81(3), p. 392–434. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v81.5807. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella; Swinkels, Laurens & Zhang, Dan (2023). The effects of COVID-19 policies on consumer spending in Norway. Contemporary economic policy. ISSN 1074-3529. 42, p. 56–67. doi: 10.1111/coep.12627. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We examine the effect of COVID‐19 policies on consumer spending using bankcard transactions from Norway. Exploiting variation in COVID‐19 policies over time and across space in the four largest municipalities, we investigate the heterogeneity of policy effects in their number and type. First, we document that the number of restrictions is negatively correlated with spending and exhibits decreasing marginal effects. Second, restrictions do not affect all types of spending equally: restrictions tend to have larger impacts on the sector in which they are targeted. Finally, we find suggestive evidence from a difference‐ in‐differences estimation that supports a causal interpretation of our results.

• Carpena, Fenella & Jensenius, Francesca Refsum (2021). Age of marriage and women’s political engagement: Evidence from india. Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816. 83(4), p. 1–52. doi: 10.1086/712141. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Although decades have passed since most women in the democratic world gained the right to vote and run for election, a large gender gap in political participation persists, particularly in developing countries. This short paper considers an important—and previously overlooked—factor limiting the political engagement of many women in the developing world: marriage age. Drawing on nationally representative data from India and instrumenting marriage age with menarche age, we find delaying marriage has substantial positive effects on women’s everyday political participation. A standard deviation increase in marriage age makes a woman 25 percent more likely to attend local council meetings, and 8 percent more likely to discuss politics with her husband. Exploring mechanisms, we show that education and time—rather than employment, mobility, and household decision-making power—appear to be the main channels. These findings underscore the critical role of early marriage in impeding women’s participation in the political sphere.

• Carpena, Fenella & Zia, Bilal (2020). The Causal Mechanism of Financial Education: Evidence from Mediation Analysis. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. ISSN 0167-2681. 177(September), p. 143–184. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.05.001. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper uses a field experiment in India and mediation analysis to investigate the causal mechanisms between financial education and financial behavior. Focusing on the mediating role of financial literacy, we propose a broader definition of financial knowledge that includes three dimensions: numeracy skills, financial awareness, and attitudes towards per sonal finance. We then employ causal mediation analysis to investigate the proportion of the treatment effect that can be attributed to these three channels. Strikingly, we find that numeracy does not mediate any effects of financial education on financial outcomes. For simple financial actions such as budgeting, both awareness and attitudes serve as pathways, while for more complex financial activities such as opening a savings account, attitudes play a more prominent role—though these patterns appear to be sensitive to confounding. We also compare our mediation analysis results to other empirical techniques that have been typically used to study mechanisms, and we discuss how mediation analysis differs from these approaches.

• Carpena, Fenella (2019). How Do Droughts Impact Household Food Consumption and Nutritional Intake? A Study of Rural India. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 122, p. 349–369. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.005. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper investigates the impacts of droughts on food expenditure and macronutrient consumption among rural Indian households. To isolate causal effects, I exploit random year-to-year variation in a dry shock, defined as the absolute deviation of rainfall below its long-run mean. I find that the dry shock has a statistically significant and negative effect on household nutrition. For a median dry shock, I esti- mate that households spend 1 percent less per capita per month on food and consume up to 1.4 percent fewer calories, protein, and fat. Disaggregating the effects by food group, I demonstrate that household diets become less balanced as a result of droughts: the dry shock leads households to rely primarily on cereals and to purchase less vegetables, fruits, pulses, and animal-sourced foods. Hence, droughts neg- atively impact not only the quantity but also the quality of rural household diets. Finally, I explore the potential channels for these effects. I argue that rather than higher food prices, a decline in household market and non-market income is the primary reason for lower household food consumption and nutri- tion during droughts. Taken together, these findings suggest that attaining food security amid extreme weather conditions requires an integrated approach that focuses on food not only for survival but also for leading a healthy and active life.

• Carpena, Fenella; Cole, Shawn; Shapiro, Jeremy & Zia, Bilal (2017). The ABCs of Financial Education: Experimental Evidence on Attitudes, Behavior, and Cognitive Biases. Management science. ISSN 0025-1909. 65(1), p. 346–369. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2819. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper employs a large-scale field experiment in India to study the attitudinal, behavioral, and cognitive constraints that may stymie the link between financial education and financial outcomes. Our research design combines financial education with (1) monetary incentives for correct answers to a financial knowledge test; (2) financial goal setting; and (3) personalized financial counseling. We find no effects of cash incentives on participants’ financial knowledge, but significant effects of both goal setting and counseling on real financial outcomes. In particular, combining goal setting with financial education encouraged relatively simple follow-up actions such as writing a budget or starting informal savings. Counseling, in turn, enabled the poor to undertake costlier or more difficult financial activities, including opening a formal bank savings account. Together, these findings identify important complements to financial education that may successfully bridge the gap between financial knowledge and behavior change.

• Carpena, Fenella; Cole, Shawn; Shapiro, Jeremy & Zia, Bilal (2013). Liability Structure in Small-scale Finance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. World Bank Economic Review. ISSN 0258-6770. doi: 10.1093/wber/lhs031. Full text in Research Archive
• Bruhn, Miriam; Carpena, Fenella & Zia, Bilal (2012). Microfinance for Entrepreneurs. In Cumming, Douglas (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Entrepreneurial Finance. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780195391244. doi: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780195391244.013.0027. Full text in Research Archive

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• Carpena, Fenella & Sabarillo, Anthony (2026). TEMPEST Project Updates (2026-Q2). Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). TEMPEST Project Updates (2026-Q1). Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella; Galle, Simon & Sabarillo, Anthony (2026). Better data, better policy: The case for a Philippine Business ID. doi: https:/bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/07/20/764391/better-data-better-policy-the-case-for-a-philippine-business-id/. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella; Sabarillo, Anthony & Magante, Maire (2026). TEMPEST: Typhoon Effects on Enterprises in the Philippines. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). Catalytic Divestment: The World's Largest Investor's Exit from Coal and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). Norm-Setting Divestment: The World's Largest Investor's Coal Exit and Global Emission. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). Norm-setting Divestment: The World’s Largest Investor's Coal Exit and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). Norm-setting Divestment: The World’s Largest Investor's Coal Exit and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2026). Norm-setting Divestment: The World’s Largest Investor's Coal Exit and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2025). TEMPEST: Typhoon Effects on Enterprises in the Philippines. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella & Castelluccio, Marco (2025). Norm-setting Divestment: The World’s Largest Investor's Coal Exit and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2025). Norm-setting Divestment: The World’s Largest Investor’s Coal Exit and Global Emissions. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2025). Typhoons, Firms, and Growth. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2024). CORA Workshop presentation of "The Labor Market Impact of Technical Change: Inspecting the Mechanisms". Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella & Galle, Simon (2023). Aarhus presentation of: "The Labor Market Effects of Technical Change: A Simple Model.". Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova & Bejarano, Nury Bibian (2023). The impact of the FARC ceasefire on household food security: A subnational analysis. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2023). Discussion of "Voter Base Pandering and Political Polarization". Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2023). The impact of a decline in conflict on food security: Evidence from Colombia. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2023). The Effect of a Decline in Conflict on Household Investment: Evidence from Colombia. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2023). The Effect of the Colombian Ceasefire on Household Investment. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella Cordova (2023). Mindre konflikt, mer matsikkerhet: En casestudie av Cauca, Colombia. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2022). The Effect of the Colombian Ceasefire on Household Investment. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2022). The Effect of the Colombian Ceasefire on Household Investment. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2022). The Causal Mechanism of Financial Education: Evidence from Mediation Analysis. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2022). The impact of the FARC ceasefire on household food security: A subnational analysis. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2021). Entertainment-Education for Better Health: Insights from a Field Experiment in India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2020). The Causal Mechanism of Financial Education: Evidence from Mediation Analysis. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2020). The Adverse Effects of Electrification: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2020). Age of Marriage and Women's Political Engagement: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2019). How Do Droughts Impact Household Food Consumption and Nutritional Intake? A Study of Rural India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2019). How Do Droughts Impact Household Food Consumption and Nutritional Intake? A Study of Rural India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2019). The Adverse Effects of Electrification: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2019). The Adverse Effects of Electrification: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2019). Age of Marriage and Women's Political Engagement: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2018). The Adverse Effects of Electrification: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2018). How do Droughts Impact Household Food Consumption and Nutritional Intake? A Study of Rural India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2017). The Adverse Effects of Electrification: Evidence from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2016). Climate Change, Precipitation, and Food Prices in India. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella (2021). Access to Food in Cauca, Colombia: Descriptive Patterns from the 2011 National Quality of Life Survey. Chapter 4 in A. Dulsrud and S. Kuraj (Eds.) Food for Security: Mapping Mechanisms of Food Security and Conflict in Cauca, Colombia. SIFO Project Report # 7-2021. OsloMet - storbyuniversitetet. Full text in Research Archive
• Carpena, Fenella & Vakulchuk, Roman (2018). Customs Capacity Building for WCO Members 2012-2015. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  International trade offers a wealth of opportunities for low-income countries to reduce poverty and achieve growth in today’s global economic landscape. In such an environment, customs administrations play a critical role not only in border security, combatting illicit transactions, and collecting revenue, but also in facilitating cross-border trade. For many poor countries, however, maintaining a modern and capable customs office remains a difficult endeavour. As a result, many multilateral organisations have responded with providing external financial assistance and technical support to build capacity within customs offices in the developing world. This report provides an end-review of the project “Customs Capacity Building for WCO Members 2012–2015,” funded by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and implemented by the World Customs Organization (WCO). This project aimed not only to develop the knowledge and skills of customs officers, but likewise to assist the customs administration in applying modern management and customs practices. Beneficiaries of this project consisted of customs offices in the following seven countries: Liberia, Rwanda,

• Carpena, Fenella (2017). Essays on Development Economics. UC Berkeley Electronic Theses and Dissertations. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This dissertation is a collection of empirical essays on three critical microeconomic development issues in India---energy, financial education, and food security---spanning households in both rural and urban settings. In the first chapter, I examine the adverse consequences rural electrification. Electrification programs have increasingly attracted worldwide interest as a policy tool to boost economic growth and transform the lives of the poor. While some studies have shown that electricity provision brings positive impacts by, among others, increasing employment and improving health outcomes, the potential negative effects of electricity provision remain unclear. This chapter argues that electrification unfavorably affects consumers that do not adopt electricity despite its availability. I use a quasi-experimental setting provided by India's national rural electrification program to study the effects of electricity provision on the kerosene markets. I show that when electricity becomes available, the price of kerosene---a substitute good for lighting---increases by 5-10%. This price increase subsequently hurts consumers who do not take up electricity and continue to use kerosene. I present a model that explains why kerosene prices might increase, and I show that the decline in the kerosene market size is a potential channel through which electrification resulted in higher prices of kerosene. The second chapter considers urban India and household financial well-being. This chapter, co-authored with Shawn Cole, Jeremy Shapiro, and Bilal Zia, employs a large-scale field experiment to study the attitudinal, behavioral, and cognitive constraints that may stymie the link between financial education and financial outcomes. Our research design combines financial education with (1) monetary incentives for correct answers to a financial knowledge test; (2) financial goal setting; and (3) personalized financial counseling. We find no effects of cash incentives on participants' financial knowledge, but significant effects of both goal setting and counseling on real financial outcomes. In particular, combining goal setting with financial education encouraged relatively simple follow-up actions such as writing a budget or starting informal savings. Counseling, in turn, enabled the poor to undertake costlier or more difficult financial activities, including opening a formal bank savings account. Together, these findings identify important complements to financial education that may successfully bridge the gap between financial knowledge and behavior change. Finally, in the third chapter, I investigate the impact of dry rainfall shocks on food security among rural Indian households. Although a large literature has established that droughts lead to a significant decline in agricultural yields, much less is known about its effects on household nutrition. On the one hand, low levels of precipitation may reduce household food consumption, for instance, due to higher prices or lower income. But on the other hand, such harmful effects may not materialize because trade, food storage, or household savings may offset the impacts of low precipitation. My findings show that a dry rainfall shock negatively impacts households' diet quantity and quality considerably. These negative impacts are evident not only in households' aggregate expenditure, caloric, protein, and fat intake, but likewise when disaggregated across different types of food. Additionally, I find no statistically significant effect of a dry shock on prices. These results therefore suggest that prices may be unresponsive to precipitation in India, so that the negative impacts of drought on food consumption and nutrition more likely come through income rather than prices.

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