Amund Arthur Hanson Kordt

• Brodeur, Abel; Mikola, Derek; Cook, Nikolai; Fiala, Lenka; Brailey, Thomas & Briggs, Ryan [Show all 347 contributors for this article] (2026). Reproducibility and robustness of economics and political science research. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 652, p. 151–156. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10251-x. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Science aspires to be cumulative. Reproducibility efforts strengthen science by testing the reliability of published findings, promoting self-correction, and informing policy-making1. Computational reproductions, whereby independent researchers reproduce the results of published studies, are an essential diagnostic tool2–10. Such efforts should have greater visibility11–16. However, little social science reproduction and robustness has been conducted at scale10,13,17–23. Here we reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks of 110 articles that were published in leading economics and political science journals with mandatory data and code sharing policies17,18. We found that more than 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, our reanalyses showed that 72% of statistically significant estimates remain significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size is nearly the same as the originally published effect size (that is, 99% of the published effect size). Additionally, 6 independent research teams examined 12 pre-specified hypotheses about determinants of robustness. Research teams with more experience found lower levels of robustness, and robustness did not correlate with author characteristics or data availability. Robustness checks and reproduction of analyses with existing and updated data based on 110 articles in economics and political science journals with data and code-sharing requirements found high levels of robustness and reproducibility and determined that robustness was not dependent on author characteristics or data availability.

• Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar; Sali, Bilal & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy: COVID-19 in Norway. Economic Analysis and Policy. ISSN 0313-5926. 88, p. 1633–1651. doi: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.10.037. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The paper documents an empirical model of the joint effects on health and the economy of the COVID-19 virus in Norway. The model is an extension of the econometric framework which has been used for real time forecasting of new cases and hospital beds during the pandemic. An important premise for modelling has been the extension of the daily measurement system to include daily indicators of economic activity. We build on existing methods for temporal disaggregation, and “dailylize” the monthly GDP data by the use of a daily Financial News Index. We distinguish between awareness effects and the effects of endogenous changes in containment policies. We find significant effects on the economy through both channels. We also find that the effects of containment policies were more negative in 2020 than later in the pandemic. A plausible explanation is that firms, households and the government learned how to adapt to the pandemic.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson & Nymoen, Ragnar (2022). Naturlig ledighet og den norske modellen for lønnsdannelse. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 136(3), p. 39–53. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Under frontfagsmodellen har partene i arbeidslivet mandat til å sette en riktig lønn for landet, mot at politikerne og sentralbanken sørger for at arbeidsledigheten blir så lav som mulig, gitt at arbeidsmarkedet er en del av en deregulert, internasjonal økonomi. Den fagøkonomiske litteraturen om finans- og pengepolitikk, er likevel i stor grad basert på teorien om naturlig ledighetsrate. Den tilsier at den normale ledighetsraten ikke påvirkes av endringer i samlet etterspørsel, herunder fra økonomisk politikk. Det betyr at ledigheten på lang sikt hverken kan bli vesentlig lavere eller vesentlig høyere enn et normalt nivå som i stor grad er markedsbestemt. I så fall hverken kan eller bør makroøkonomisk politikk prøve å gjøre mer enn å jevne ut naturlige fluktuasjoner rundt det naturlige ledighetsnivået. Denne artikkelen argumenterer for at den koordinerte lønnsdannelsen påvirker sentrale mekanismer i norsk økonomi som muliggjør at finans- og pengepolitikken kan innrettes mot en lavere arbeidsledighet enn den markedsbestemte, uten å resultere i akselererende inflasjon og/eller ukontrollert tap av konkurranseevne.

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• Kordt, Amund H.; Heimdal, Knut Ward & Holm, Martin B. (2025). Local Permanent Fiscal Multipliers. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We provide a framework to explain how permanent federal transfers affect local economic output. The effect depends on import shares, labor supply elasticity, capital use in government production, industry composition, and taxation. Using plausibly exogenous variation in federal transfers to Norwegian municipalities, we estimate an average multiplier of 1.1 -- each krone in transfers raises local output by 1.1 kroner. Municipalities with low import shares have multipliers near 2, while those with high import shares have multipliers around 0.7. These results are consistent with our theory under elastic labor supply, a condition supported by our empirical findings.

• Kordt, Amund H. (2025). Labour Supply Responses to Permanent Tax-Induced Income Shocks. Full text in Research Archive
• Kordt, Amund H.; Sali, Bilal; Nymoen, Ragnar & Bårdsen, Gunnar (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy: COVID-19 in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sali, Bilal (2025). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy; COVID-19 in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Bårdsen, Gunnar; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson; Nymoen, Ragnar & Sali, Bilal (2024). Econometric modelling of public health and the economy; COVID-19 in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Holm, Martin B.; Heimdal, Knut Ward & Kordt, Amund H. (2024). Local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Norway. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We estimate local government spending multipliers using administrative data on municipalities in Norway. Based on identified shocks we estimate the dynamic response of gross production across geographical units and sectors of the economy. We find that the multipliers increase with the home bias in consumption. The results indicate that spending multiplier is closely linked to import leakages, which are reduced as the size of the economy increases. We observe that the public sector is the first to be affected by public spending, before the multiplier builds up in the private sector. We also show that similar results can be obtained by using a structural vector autoregressive models (SVAR) with various identifying assumptions.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson; Gyene, Markus Sageng; Frisell, Marte Marie; Iversen, Mathias & Gran, Bjørn (2022). Norsk økonomi og boligmarkedet til 2025. Full text in Research Archive
• Kordt, Amund H.; Nymoen, Ragnar & Holm, Martin B. (2026). Essays on Fiscal Policy. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This thesis examines how fiscal policy shapes labour supply, local economic activity and aggregate fluctuations in Norway. It brings together three empirical papers that analyse the effects of income taxation, intergovernmental transfers and pandemic containment policies using rich administrative and national accounts data and dynamic econometric methods. The first paper studies long-run responses of labour income and taxable income to permanent changes in the income tax schedule. Exploiting a series of legislated tax reforms between 1994 and 2019 and using a local projection IV framework, it estimates dynamic elasticities and decomposes them into income and substitution effects. The results point to a sizeable negative long-run response of taxable income to an increase in net-of-tax income, driven by strong income effects and modest substitution effects, with substantial heterogeneity across the consumption distribution. The findings are consistent with non-homothetic preferences of the Boppart–Krusell-type and have direct implications for optimal income tax design. The second paper investigates local permanent fiscal multipliers. Using variation in permanent central-government transfers to municipalities, combined with municipal accounts and firm-level balance-sheet data, it estimates the long-run impact of transfers on local value added and employment. On average, one additional krone of transfers raises local value added by more than one krone, but multipliers are much larger in municipalities where households spend a high share of their consumption locally, highlighting the importance of import leakages and local market structure. The third paper develops a daily econometric model of the joint evolution of public health and economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. By combining “dailylised” GDP with high-frequency health indicators, policy measures and an awareness proxy, it shows that both containment policies and voluntary behavioural responses had large but time-varying effects on economic activity, with the economic costs declining as agents adapted and vaccination reduced disease severity. Together, the three papers provide new evidence on how taxes, transfers and health policies propagate through the economy in normal times and crises.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Frisell, Marte Marie; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson & Gran, Bjørn (2022). Boligvennlighetskåringen for norske kommuner. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951370. Full text in Research Archive
• Dybedal, Petter; Enger, Anniken; Gundersen, Frants Henrik; Kordt, Amund & Røtnes, Rolf (2022). Nasjonal reiselivsmonitor - forprosjekt. Transportøkonomisk institutt . ISSN 9788248019763. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  På oppdrag fra Innovasjon Norge har prosjektet gjort en vurdering av nytten av å samle tilgjengelig stati¬stikk i en nettbasert reiselivsmonitor. Gjennomgang av brukerbehov og tilgjengelig statistikk viser at en monitor over ulike sider ved reiselivssektoren både kan bli omfattende og dekke manges behov for stati¬stikk. Samtidig gjør moderne verktøy og auto¬mati¬serte prosesser for datainnhenting og -behandling terskelen relativt lav for etablering og drift av en slik monitor. En bør la etterspørsel og ressursbruk styre hvor mye en vil inkludere av bearbeiding og til rette¬legging hvis en ønsker å utvide utover en basisversjon av tilgjengelig statistikk.

• Benedictow, Andreas; Kordt, Amund Arthur Hanson; Iversen, Mathias; Gran, Bjørn; Frisell, Marte Marie & Gyene, Markus Sageng (2022). Norsk Økonomi 1-2022. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951431. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Gran, Bjørn; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Frisell, Marte Marie; Gyene, Markus & Iversen, Mathias [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Norsk økonomi 2021-2. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951257. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Gran, Bjørn; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Frisell, Marte Marie; Gyene, Markus & Kordt, Amund H. (2021). Norsk økonomi 2021-1. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951134. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Gran, Bjørn; Eggen, Fernanda Winger; Frisell, Marte Marie & Kordt, Amund H. (2021). Konjunkturenes virkning på byggevarehandelen og vurdering av offentlige tiltak. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951080. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatval, Vegard Salte; Kordt, Amund H.; Steen, Jørgen Ingerød; Røtnes, Rolf A.; Gran, Bjørn & Botheim, Trond (2021). Ekomsektorens betydning for norsk økonomi. Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse. ISSN 9788283951066. Full text in Research Archive
• Flatval, Vegard Salte; Kordt, Amund H.; Steen, Jørgen Ingerød & Røtnes, Rolf A. (2020). Verdikjeder i Norge. Samfunnsøkonomisk Analyse. ISSN 9788283950823. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Walbækken, Mikkel; Gran, Bjørn; Røtnes, Rolf A. & Kordt, Amund H. (2020). Virkninger av koronapandemien og oljeprisfall på den norske boligmodellen. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283950793. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen & Kordt, Amund H. (2020). Den norske modellen og relativt lønnsnivå. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283951004. Full text in Research Archive
• Benedictow, Andreas; Bjøru, Emil Cappelen; Nymoen, Ragnar; Røtnes, Rolf A. & Kordt, Amund H. (2020). Virkninger av redusert normalarbeidstid på norsk økonomi. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse. ISSN 9788283950779. Full text in Research Archive
• Walbækken, Mikkel; Kostøl, Fredrik Bakkemo; Røtnes, Rolf A.; Eggen, Fernanda & Kordt, Amund H. (2019). Possibilities for low-skilled immigrants in the Norwegian labour market of tomorrow. Samfunnsøkonomisk analyse AS. ISSN 9788283950397. Full text in Research Archive

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