"You can forget achieving any lasting peace in this way," says Iver B. Neumann, director of the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, in the latest episode of the Arena Europa podcast.
The episode is available in Norwegian further down in this article and in iTunes.
He refers to the way American President Donald Trump has begun conversations with Russia’s Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, without including Ukraine itself.
"If something is to be lasting, it must be socially founded," Neumann says.
If Trump and Putin agree to divide Ukraine, it could bring an end to the violent hostilities, he explains.
"But the way it is happening is that the superpowers are working together over the heads of both Ukraine and Europe."
This does nothing to address the social roots of the problem, Neumann believes.
Read also: Arena Europa podcast: The single market, tariffs and Trump
Break with tradition
This way of doing things, where superpowers operate in ‘concert’ without including other countries, is the historical way of doing things, Neumann explains. This is what Americans were supposed to rectify after World War II.
"All states were to be included in multilateral institutions; that is, institutions where states can be members—both small and large states."
"One was to use a legal approach to reach agreements that were founded in the various states, and therefore held up," Neumann says.
This created the liberal world order, based on free trade, democracy, and the rule of law.
"Trump is attacking all these principles," says Neumann.
Do not take American security guarantee seriously
NATO was formed to keep the Soviet Union out of Europe, Neumann explains.
"That was achieved. Then the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991."
Since then, NATO has persisted because the US and Europe came together to preserve the liberal world order, both among NATO countries and beyond the cooperation, according to Neumann.
Trump is now showing that he does not want democracy, the rule of law, or free trade, the last exemplified by him imposing tariffs on trade partners.
"This leads to no one in Europe taking the American security guarantee seriously anymore," says Neumann.
He explains that when the social glue that holds NATO together—namely agreement that there should be a liberal world order—dissolves, NATO will not collapse overnight but will slowly disappear as we know it today.
Urgent need for European defence
However, it is unlikely that the US will formally withdraw from NATO. This requires a two-thirds majority in the American Senate, which is hard to achieve, even if Trump wishes to pull the US out of NATO, Neumann states.
"But Trump has repeatedly said that the military presence in Europe should be reduced."
Nonetheless, Neumann believes that the establishment of a European defence can happen within a NATO framework.
"Because there is no doubt that Europe needs the US, at least for the next few years. Europe does not have the capacity to do anything alone."
But the times ahead could make Europe more vulnerable to Russian aggression.
"So here it is urgent to get moving and establish a European defence."
Listen to the episode "Nationalism, NATO, and the Liberal World Order" here or on iTunes (in Norwegian only):