Eilert Sundt Lecture 2003

In collaboration with The Norwegian Nobel Institute.

Finding Peace in a World of Hegemony and Terrorism

Professor Bruce M. Russett,
United Nations Studies at Yale,
Yale University, USA

Tuesday 25. November,
15.15 - 16.30, Auditorium 1,
Eilert Sundts hus, Blindern

Two centuries ago Immanuel Kant acknowledged the importance of power in a world of conflict, but nevertheless held that republican constitutions, economic interdependence, and international law and organizations could form the basis for a dramatically more peaceful world. Large-scale statistical analyses of the behavior of all countries since 1885, along with refinements in theory, confirm this vision. Using methods common to medical epidemiology, we can see that the Kantian elements substantially reduce the likelihood that a pair of states will become involved in a fatal military dispute. Indeed, two democracies linked by extensive trade and a dense network of international organizations are about 90 percent less likely to fight than are pairs of states that do not share these characteristics. The pacific effects of democracy, economic interdependence, and international organizations have grown markedly over almost a century, and over the past decade. If these influences continue to grow and spread peacefully, wars can be even more substantially diminished, more so than by military hegemony. This fact has great implications for otherwise potentially dangerous relationships such as those between the United States and China, and for containing terrorism and avoiding a "clash of civilizations."

Bruce M. Russett (b. 1935) is Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science at Yale University and Director of United Nations Studies at Yale. He is also the editor of The Journal of Conflict Resolution. Among his recent publications is Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations (with John Oneal, New York: Norton, 2001), Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993) and "Causes of Peace: Democracy, Interdependence, and International Organizations, 1886-1992" (with John Oneal and Michael Berbaum), International Studies Quarterly 47:3 (September 2003).