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Jørgen Bølstad

Image of Jørgen Bølstad
Mobile phone +47 97167242
Room 715
Available hours By appointment
Username
Visiting address Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus B 0851 OSLO
Postal address Postboks 1097 Blindern 0317 OSLO

Academic interests

  • Political psychology
  • Electoral behavior and public opinion
  • Democratic representation
  • Bayesian statistics
  • Development of new statistical models
  • Experiments and quasi-experiments
  • Time series and panel data analysis

Background

Bølstad has studied and worked abroad for about ten years. He started his studies with a BA in political science at the University of Oslo, and an MSc in international political economy at the London School of Economics. He then obtained a PhD in political science from the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy. During his PhD, he was PhD-Fellow of the Norwegian Research Council, and a Fulbright Fellow at Harvard University. After completing the PhD, he has mainly worked as a researcher and lecturer at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), and at the University of Oslo. Bølstad has considerable experience in teaching research methods and statistics at the MA- and PhD-level.

Appointments

Bølstad is a member of the Norwegian Academy for Young Researchers – an organization founded in 2015, at the initiative of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters. A presentation of Bølstad's work and his thoughts on academia can be found on AYF’s webpage, here, while press coverage of the announcement of the membership can be found here (both links are in Norwgian).

Dissemination and media activities

Bølstad har written for, or been interviewed by, most of the major newspapers in Norway (including Aftenposten, Morgenbladet, VG, Dagbladet, Klassekampen, and Dagsavisen). He has also appeared numerous times on TV and Radio (mainly on NRK1, NRK P2, and TV2 News Channel). Before the 2023 Norwegian election, he developed a new prediction model for NRK to use in live broadcasts on election nights. In addition, he is managing the website Estimite.com, which among other things analyses political party support over time and predicts election outcomes.

Teaching

Bølstad is responsible for quantitative methods courses STV4022 and STV4032. He is also responsible for the design seminar and participates in the midway assessment for PhD candidates.

Websites

Bølstad is managing two websites: Boelstad.net, which contains posts on statistics and programming, and Estimite.com, which presents applied political data science projects. 

Software

Bølstad is author and maintainer the R package hbamr for estimation of ideological positions from survey data. 

Tags: Comparative Politics, Democracy, Political Psychology, Electoral Behavior, Public Opinion, Bayesian Statistics, Quantitative Methods, Causal Inference

Publications

  • Aardal, Bernt Olav & Bølstad, Jørgen (2025). The Electoral System: Representing Voters and Territory. In Kolltveit, Kristoffer; Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid & Rasch, Bjørn Erik (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780198888581. p. 102–119. doi: https:/global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-norwegian-politics-9780198888581?cc=no&lang=en. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen (2023). Hierarchical Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey Scaling. Political Analysis. ISSN 1047-1987. 31(1), p. 50–64. doi: 10.1017/pan.2023.18. Full text in Research Archive
  • Tjønndal, Anne; Bølstad, Jørgen & Eikenes, Åsmund Husabø (2020). Hva er det minst næringsrelevante du har forsket på? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Capturing Rationalization Bias and Differential Item Functioning: A Unified Bayesian Scaling Approach. Political Analysis. ISSN 1047-1987. 28(3), p. 340–355. doi: 10.1017/pan.2019.42. Full text in Research Archive
  • Zhelyazkova, Asya; Bølstad, Jørgen & Meijers, Maurits J. (2019). Understanding responsiveness in European Union politics. Journal of European Public Policy. ISSN 1350-1763. 26(11), p. 1715–1723. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2019.1668046. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen & Dinas, Elias (2017). A Categorization Theory of Spatial Voting: How the Center Divides the Political Space. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 47(4), p. 829–850. doi: 10.1017/S0007123415000393. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen (2017). Is there a rational public? In Fisher, Justin; Fieldhouse, Edward; Franklin, Mark N.; Gibson, Rachel; Cantijoch, Marta & Wlezien, Christopher (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion. Routledge. ISSN 9781138890404. p. 383–393. doi: 10.4324/9781315712390.ch30. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen & Elhardt, Christoph (2017). Capacity, Willingness, and Sovereign Default Risk: Reassuring the Market in Times of Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. 56(4), p. 802–817. doi: 10.1111/jcms.12620. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen & Cross, James P. (2016). Not all treaties are created equal: the effects of treaty changes on legislative efficiency in the EU. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. 54(4), p. 793–808. doi: 10.1111/jcms.12349. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen (2015). Dynamics of European Integration: Public Opinion in the Core and Periphery. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(1), p. 23–44. doi: 10.1177/1465116514551303. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen & Elhardt, Christoph (2015). To Bail Out or Not to Bail Out? Crisis Politics, Credibility, and Default Risk in the Eurozone. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(3), p. 325–346. doi: 10.1177/1465116515575580. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen & Cross, James P. (2015). Openness and Censorship in the European Union: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(2), p. 216–240. doi: 10.1177/1465116514560066. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen; Dinas, Elias & Riera, Pedro (2013). Tactical Voting and Party Preferences: A Test of Cognitive Dissonance Theory. Political Behavior. ISSN 0190-9320. 35(3), p. 429–452. doi: 10.1007/s11109-012-9205-1. Full text in Research Archive
  • Bølstad, Jørgen (2012). Thermostatic Voting: Presidential Elections in Light of New Policy Data. PS: Political Science and Politics. ISSN 1049-0965. 45(1), p. 44–50. doi: 10.1017/S1049096511001697. Full text in Research Archive

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Published Aug. 18, 2020 12:44 PM - Last modified Jan. 7, 2025 2:45 PM