Jørgen Bølstad

Professor - Institutt for Statsvitenskap

Norwegian version of this page

Email jorgen.bolstad@stv.uio.no

Mobile phone +47 97167242

Room 715

Available hours By appointment

Username

Visiting address Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus B 0851 OSLO

Postal address Postboks 1097 Blindern 0317 OSLO

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Academic interests

Political psychology
Electoral behavior and public opinion
Democratic representation
Bayesian statistics
Development of new statistical models
Experiments and quasi-experiments
Time series and panel data analysis

Background

Bølstad has studied and worked abroad for about ten years. He started his studies with a BA in political science at the University of Oslo, and an MSc in international political economy at the London School of Economics. He then obtained a PhD in political science from the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy. During his PhD, he was PhD-Fellow of the Norwegian Research Council, and a Fulbright Fellow at Harvard University. After completing the PhD, he has mainly worked as a researcher and lecturer at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich), and at the University of Oslo. Bølstad has considerable experience in teaching research methods and statistics at the MA- and PhD-level.

Appointments

Bølstad is a member of the Norwegian Academy for Young Researchers – an organization founded in 2015, at the initiative of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters. A presentation of Bølstad's work and his thoughts on academia can be found on AYF’s webpage, here, while press coverage of the announcement of the membership can be found here (both links are in Norwgian).

Dissemination and media activities

Bølstad har written for, or been interviewed by, most of the major newspapers in Norway (including Aftenposten, Morgenbladet, VG, Dagbladet, Klassekampen, and Dagsavisen). He has also appeared numerous times on TV and Radio (mainly on NRK1, NRK P2, and TV2 News Channel). Before the 2023 Norwegian election, he developed a new prediction model for NRK to use in live broadcasts on election nights. In addition, he is managing the website Estimite.com, which among other things analyses political party support over time and predicts election outcomes.

Teaching

Bølstad is responsible for quantitative methods courses STV4022 and STV4032.

Websites

Bølstad is managing two websites: Boelstad.net, which contains posts on statistics and programming, and Estimite.com, which presents applied political data science projects.

Tags: Comparative Politics, Democracy, Political Psychology, Electoral Behavior, Public Opinion, Bayesian Statistics, Quantitative Methods, Causal Inference

Bølstad, Jørgen (2023). Hierarchical Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey Scaling. Political Analysis. ISSN 1047-1987. 31(1), p. 50–64. doi: 10.1017/pan.2023.18. Full text in Research Archive
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Capturing Rationalization Bias and Differential Item Functioning: A Unified Bayesian Scaling Approach. Political Analysis. ISSN 1047-1987. 28(3), p. 340–355. doi: 10.1017/pan.2019.42. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Information about the ideological positions of different political actors is crucial in answering questions regarding political representation, polarization, and voting behavior. One way to obtain such information is to ask survey respondents to place actors on a common ideological scale, but, unfortunately, respondents typically display a set of biases when performing such placements. Key among these are rationalization bias and differential item functioning (DIF). While Aldrich–McKelvey (AM) scaling offers a useful solution to DIF, it ignores the issue of rationalization bias, and this study presents Monte Carlo simulations demonstrating that AM-type models thus can give inaccurate results. As a response to this challenge, this study develops an alternative Bayesian scaling approach, which simultaneously estimates DIF and rationalization bias, and therefore performs better when the latter bias is present.
Zhelyazkova, Asya; Bølstad, Jørgen & Meijers, Maurits J. (2019). Understanding responsiveness in European Union politics. Journal of European Public Policy. ISSN 1350-1763. 26(11), p. 1715–1723. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2019.1668046.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2017). Is there a rational public? In Fisher, Justin; Fieldhouse, Edward; Franklin, Mark N.; Gibson, Rachel; Cantijoch, Marta & Wlezien, Christopher (Ed.), The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion. Routledge. ISSN 9781138890404. p. 383–393. Full text in Research Archive
Bølstad, Jørgen & Elhardt, Christoph (2017). Capacity, Willingness, and Sovereign Default Risk: Reassuring the Market in Times of Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. 56(4), p. 802–817. doi: 10.1111/jcms.12620. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Preserving the trust of bond markets is crucial for the world's many indebted countries, but it is still unclear when and how national or international actors can contribute to this goal. We present a set of arguments addressing this question and test them on the case of the eurozone debt crisis. Distinguishing between actors' capacity and willingness to avoid defaults, we argue that the crisis was marked by a lack of capacity at the national level, and limited or uncertain willingness at the European level. Accordingly, we find that European-level efforts to reassure markets had considerably stronger effects than similar efforts at the national level. Furthermore, national efforts appear to have mattered the least in countries with the least capacity. These findings are based on a comprehensive new dataset of political events and relevant news, and they hold across a number of robustness checks and placebo tests.
Bølstad, Jørgen & Dinas, Elias (2017). A Categorization Theory of Spatial Voting: How the Center Divides the Political Space. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 47(4), p. 829–850. doi: 10.1017/S0007123415000393.
Bølstad, Jørgen & Cross, James P. (2016). Not all treaties are created equal: the effects of treaty changes on legislative efficiency in the EU. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. 54(4), p. 793–808. doi: 10.1111/jcms.12349. Full text in Research Archive
Bølstad, Jørgen & Elhardt, Christoph (2015). To Bail Out or Not to Bail Out? Crisis Politics, Credibility, and Default Risk in the Eurozone. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(3), p. 325–346. doi: 10.1177/1465116515575580.
Bølstad, Jørgen & Cross, James P. (2015). Openness and Censorship in the European Union: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(2), p. 216–240. doi: 10.1177/1465116514560066.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2015). Dynamics of European Integration: Public Opinion in the Core and Periphery. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 16(1), p. 23–44. doi: 10.1177/1465116514551303.
Bølstad, Jørgen; Dinas, Elias & Riera, Pedro (2013). Tactical Voting and Party Preferences: A Test of Cognitive Dissonance Theory. Political Behavior. ISSN 0190-9320. 35(3), p. 429–452. doi: 10.1007/s11109-012-9205-1.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2012). Thermostatic Voting: Presidential Elections in Light of New Policy Data. PS: Political Science and Politics. ISSN 1049-0965. 45(1), p. 44–50. doi: 10.1017/S1049096511001697.

View all works in Cristin

Bølstad, Jørgen (2023). Er ett glass vin om dagen godt for helsa? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2023). Hva er det viktigste jeg kan gjøre for klimaet? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Dietrichs, Erik Sveberg; De Korne, Haley & Bølstad, Jørgen (2023). Forskerne svarer: Jeg er helt utslitt. Arbeidshverdagen på universitetet blir verre for hvert år som går. Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Lison, Pierre; Bølstad, Jørgen & Kvellestad, Anders (2021). Forvirrende pandemistatistikk: Hva skal vi med logaritmer i grafer? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Soot-Ryen, Tron & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Frokostradio: Det norske valgsystemet. [Radio]. P1+.
Solheim, Ingunn; Stenvold, Ingerid & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Valgnatt. [TV]. NRK1.
Radøy, Sverre Tom & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Dagsnytt 18. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Jonassen, Andreas de Brito & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Dagsrevyen 21. [TV]. NRK1.
Thorsen, Dag Einar; Bølstad, Jørgen; Takvam, Magnus & Radøy, Sverre Tom (2021). Intervju om valg og valgordninger på valgdagen. [TV]. NRK Dagsnytt Atten.
Amundsen, Bård & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Er valgsystemet vårt rettferdig? [Internet]. Forskning.no.
Andersland, Kjetil Kjær & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Støres skrekkfall. [Newspaper]. Dagbladet.
Sveen, Fredrik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Statsviter om Senterpartiets og Trygve Slagsvold Vedums fall: – Luften har gått ut av ballongen. [Internet]. ABC Nyheter.
Wichstad, Eirik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Ekspertene om Vedums mageplask: Derfor flykter velgerne. [Newspaper]. VG.
Molde, Eivind & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Sp-nestor kritisk til Vedums statsministerstrategi. [Internet]. NRK.no.
Molde, Eivind & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Dagsrevyen. [TV]. NRK1.
Wiik, Linn & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Valgstudio. [TV]. TV2 Nyhetskanalen.
Daae Hessen, Frida & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Valgforsker: – Under én prosent vinnersjanse. [Internet]. tv2.no.
Grønli, Håvard & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Politisk kvarter. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Vestheim, Tone Magni Finstad & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Så stor er sannsynligheten for Vedums «drømmeregjering». [Newspaper]. Nationen.
Winquist, Bjørn & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). – Virker ikke helt sannsynlig at Vedum blir statsminister. [Newspaper]. Dagsavisen.
Bjarkøy, Silje Kathrine & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Nyhetsmorgen, om sperregrensen. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Ludvigsen, Elin; Bergesen, Eirik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Norske tilstander. [TV]. TV2 Nyhetskanalen.
Dale, Kjetil H. & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Om stillingen mellom partiblokkene før Stortingsvalget. [TV]. TV2 Nyhetskanalen.
Grønli, Håvard & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Støre styrer mot regjeringskontora. [Internet]. NRK.no.
Molnes, Geir & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Vaksineutdelingen i Oslo påvirkes ikke av politisk oppslutning. [Internet]. Faktisk.no.
Dale, Kjetil H. & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Innslag om Estimite.com. [TV]. TV2 Nyhetskanalen.
Grønli, Håvard; Asvall, Halldor & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Frp-framgang, men langt fram for Listhaug. [Internet]. NRK.no.
Utti, Caroline & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Dagsrevyen. [TV]. NRK1.
Gilbrant, Jørgen & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Krisemåling for MDG. [Newspaper]. Dagbladet.
Gilbrant, Jørgen & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Stengte ned Norge: Høyre fosser fram, Erna rekordpopulær. [Newspaper]. Dagbladet.
Fossen, Magnus & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Statistikkforsker: Under fem prosent sjanse for gjenvalg for Erna. [Newspaper]. ABC Nyheter.
Masvie, Andreas E. & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Norges svar på Nate Silver. [Journal]. Minerva.
Solheim, Ingunn & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Politisk kvarter. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Fondenes, Yvonne & Bølstad, Jørgen (2021). Innslag om meningsmålinger. [TV]. TV2 Nyhetskanalen.
Paust, Thomas & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Donald Trumps predikerte vinnersjanse er nøyaktig lik som på samme tid i 2016. [Newspaper]. Nettavisen.
Solvang, Fredrik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Debatten. [TV]. NRK1.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Presidentvalget i USA 2020. [TV]. NRK1.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Presidentvalget i USA 2020. [TV]. NRK1.
Eriksen, Gjermund Stenberg; Matheson, Shaun Henrik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Trump mot verden: Vinneren! [Radio]. NRK.
Eriksen, Gjermund Stenberg; Matheson, Shaun Henrik & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Trump mot verden: Den siste fredagen. [Radio]. NRK.
Aas, Espen & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Dagsnytt 18. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Fermariello, Ugo & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Dagsnytt 18. [TV]. NRK1, NRK P2.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Dagsrevyen. [TV]. NRK1.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Dagsrevyen. [TV]. NRK1.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Dagsrevyen. [TV]. NRK1.
Tjønndal, Anne; Bølstad, Jørgen & Eikenes, Åsmund Husabø (2020). Hva er det minst næringsrelevante du har forsket på? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Fjellanger, Runa & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Slik kan Trump vinne – tross dårlige meningsmålinger. [Newspaper]. VG.
Almås, Gry Blekastad & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Presidentvalget i USA 2020. [TV]. NRK1.
Tønset, Arne Egil & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Helgemorgen. [TV]. NRK P2 og NRK1.
Almås, Gry Blekastad & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Urix - Faktakrigen. [TV]. NRK1.
Bølstad, Jørgen; Snipstad, Sofie & Korsvoll, Nils Hallvard (2020). Kan man være uenig i forskning? Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Jåsund, Birger Kolsrud & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Nyhetsmorgen. [TV]. NRK1, P2, Alltid Nyheter.
Eriksen, Gjermund Stenberg; Høgestøl, Sofie A.E. & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). Trump mot verden: Lys og varme. [Radio]. NRK. Show summary
Michelle Obama sender stikk til Donald og imponerer selv Fox News! Hva har vært høydepunktene på demokratenes landsmøte, hva blir det aller mest spennende med høsten i Høyesterett og hvordan kan vi stole på at årets meningsmålinger er mer korrekte enn ved forrige presidentvalg? Har vi en supermodell? Førsteamanuensis ved Universitetet i Oslo, Jørgen Bølstad, hjelper oss å forstå hvordan det hele henger sammen. Supervikar: Sofie Høgestøl.
Eriksen, Marianne Hem; Gjesteland, Thomas & Bølstad, Jørgen (2020). «All forskning er vel ikke like bra?» En arkeolog, en fysiker og en statsviter svarer . Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
Vartdal, Ragnhild; Fimland, Øystein; Solheim, Marte Cecilie Wilhelmsen & Bølstad, Jørgen (2019). 12 nye yngre forskarar i Akademiet. [Internet]. khrono. Show summary
Basert på pressemelding frå UiS
Andersen Johnsen, Christine; Solheim, Marte Cecilie Wilhelmsen & Bølstad, Jørgen (2019). UiS-forskere er valgt ut som medlemmer av eksklusivt akademi. [Newspaper]. Stavanger Aftenblad.
Pentz, Benedicte; Bølstad, Jørgen & Solheim, Marte Cecilie Wilhelmsen (2019). To frå UiS i Akademiet for yngre forskarar. [Internet]. https://www.uis.no/om-uis/nyheter-og-presserom/to-fra-uis-i-.
Uleberg, Martin & Bølstad, Jørgen (2018). Presset Merkel møtte Macron til formøte i Meseberg: Går for reform. [Newspaper]. Klassekampen.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2018). A Bayesian State Space Model of Public Opinion: Making the Most of the Eurobarometer.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2018). Modeling Voter Rationalization: A Bayesian Approach.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2018). Responsiveness and the Issue of Causality: A Second Look at the Case of European Directives.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2017). Not So Similar After All? On Non-Convergence in the Eurozone.
Bølstad, Jørgen (2016). Public Opinion and European Integration: How Leadership Creates the Illusion of Responsiveness.