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New, updated and improved data
This year’s update includes not only new incidents from 2023 but also a major update of incidents recorded between 2010 and 2014. In recent years, we have retroactively applied an enhanced data collection method to improve coverage of severe but non-fatal attacks – a process we call “backlogging.” While our 2022-update introduced new data from our backlog going back to 2015, this update extends our backlog all the way back to 2010. We will not extend our backlog further into the past as the digital news sources our data collection relies on lack sufficiently consistent reporting prior to 2010.
In addition to completing the backlogging project, the RTV dataset underwent a major revision to ensure data consistency by including only the most severe attacks—those involving intent to cause deadly or disabling injuries. Maintaining this severity threshold is challenging for several reasons, most notably the very human desire to recognise grim attacks that nevertheless do not satisfy our severity threshold. We have observed a tendency among our coders to unintentionally adopt progressively lower severity thresholds over time. This drift undermines the consistency of the RTV dataset, which has been its primary strength. We therefore decided to revise all attacks included in RTV involving beating and kicking, throwing of stones and bottles, and using fireworks and firecrackers. As a result, 371 incidents that did not satisfy our severity threshold were excluded from the dataset.
The new RTV Trend Report presents findings from this major update of the RTV dataset. We are pleased to report that the major trends identified in previous trend reports continue to hold true, even after this year’s extension and enhancement of the dataset.
Declining levels of violence
The first finding is that both fatal and severe non-fatal attacks have steadily declined since 2010, with the exceptions of notable peaks in 2012 (affecting only non-fatal attacks) and 2016 (affecting both fatal and non-fatal attacks). These trends reached all-time lows in 2022 and 2023. The 2012 peak is linked to the rise of Golden Dawn in Greece, while the 2016 peak is likely related to violent reactions to the influx of refugees into Western Europe in 2015 and 2016.
In 2023, we have recorded no fatal attacks, marking it as the only year thus far with no fatal outcomes. However, based on experience, it is possible for new information to emerge later, even for incidents with fatal outcomes. The number of severe but non-fatal attacks in 2023 was 83, which is lower than in the early 2010s but consistent with recent years. The analysis also shows that, when it comes to non-fatal attacks, the most notable decline has been in the number of premeditated attacks, whereas the number of spontaneous attacks has been more stable over time.
Perpetrators, weapons and target groups
The second finding is that, since 2015, nearly all fatal attacks have been committed by lone actors, including all fatal attacks recorded in 2020, 2021, and 2022 (with no fatal attacks recorded in 2023). This contrasts with earlier periods, particularly the 1990s and early 2000s, when most fatal attacks were carried out by groups. In comparison, severe but non-fatal attacks are still predominantly committed by groups, although the proportion of non-fatal attacks carried out by groups has decreased notably in recent years, comprising less than two-thirds of all such attacks in 2023.
The third finding is that the most severe far-right attacks are carried out using simple weapons such as fists, knives, sticks, baseball bats, and bottles. Between 2010 and 2023, firearms were used in only 3% of all attacks, both fatal and non-fatal. Explosives were used in 3% of attacks, which drops to 2% when excluding attacks involving fireworks and paper bombs. However, 2023 slightly deviates from this trend, with firearms used in 5% of all attacks and explosives in 4% (excluding attacks using firecrackers).
The fourth finding is that ethnic and religious minorities are the groups most frequently targeted by the far right in Western Europe. Between 2010 and 2023, they were targeted in 72% of all completed attacks. Political opponents were the second-most targeted group, accounting for 24% of all completed attacks during the same period. However, the share of attacks targeting political opponents increased notably in 2023, rising to 34% of all attacks. Another new trend recorded in 2023 involved multiple attacks targeting transgender people, potentially related to a wider current of anti-transgender sentiments currently shaping political dynamics in Europe and the United States.
Attack plots
Finally, the fifth finding is that the number of detected attack plots has risen significantly since 2017, increasing from an average of less than 4 plots per year between 2010 and 2016 to just over 14 plots per year from 2017 to 2023, with 14 plots detected in 2023 alone. This significant increase in detected plots has been a recurring theme in our previous RTV Trend Reports. Two competing explanations stand out: the first suggests that this rise reflects an actual increase in activity, with more individuals attempting to carry out terrorist attacks. The second posits that the increase is due to a shift in focus by Western European security authorities, resulting in more arrests, investigations, and subsequently also media reports. While it is difficult to offer a definitive answer, our evidence leans towards the second explanation.
You can find more information about trends in right-wing violence and terrorism in Western Europe in the RTV Trend Report. To visualize geographical patterns, you can use the RTV Map Tool. Scholars can download the dataset from our website.
