Staffan Kumlin

• Kumlin, Staffan; Nemcok, Miroslav & van Hootegem, Arno (2024). Welfare state evaluations, normative expectations, and political trust: longitudinal evidence from Germany and Norway. Public Management Review. ISSN 1471-9037. doi: 10.1080/14719037.2023.2297292. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Finseraas, Henning; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Kumlin, Staffan (2023). Immigration and welfare state sustainability: whose perception is affected by fiscal cost cues? Journal of European Public Policy. ISSN 1350-1763. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2023.2166572. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Who reacts politically to fiscally costly immigration? A political economy tradition holds that reactions depend on economic self-interest, whereas a social psychology tradition emphasizes generalized political orientations and trust. Past work largely leans in favor of the latter tradition. We make three contributions. First, our dependent variable is a concrete perception of welfare state sustainability, arguably better suited to capture self-interest. Second, both the political economy- and social psychology traditions have been studied narrowly; we separate between multiple interests (including economic local context), and compare several types of trust orientations. Third, we use machine learning methods well-suited to analyze treatment heterogeneity in a randomized survey experiment. We find support for both interest-based and social psychological explanations. As for the latter, what matters is not only, or even mainly, orientations/trust related to immigration. Rather, generalized political distrust strongly regulates when costly immigration cues trigger welfare sustainability worries.

• Goubin, Silke & Kumlin, Staffan (2022). Political Trust and Policy Demand in Changing Welfare States: Building Normative Support and Easing Reform Acceptance? European Sociological Review. ISSN 0266-7215. 38(4), s. 590–604. doi: 10.1093/esr/jcab061.
• Kumlin, Staffan; Goerres, Achim & Spies, Dennis C. (2021). Public Attitudes. I Béland, Daniel; Morgan, Kimberly J.; Obinger, Herbert & Pierson, Christopher (Red.), Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State, 2nd ed. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780198828389.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Quality of Government and Welfare State Support. I Bågenholm, Andreas; Bauhr, Monika; Grimes, Marcia & Rothstein, Bo (Red.), Oxford Handbook of the Quality of Government. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780198858218. doi: DOI:%2010.1093/oxfordhb/9780198858218.013.35.
• de Blok, Lisanne & Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Losers’ Consent in Changing Welfare States: Output Dissatisfaction, Experienced Voice and Political Distrust. Political Studies. ISSN 0032-3217. s. 1–20. doi: 10.1177/0032321721993646. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• de Blok, Lisanne; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan (2020). Increasingly Connected? Political Distrust and Dissatisfaction with Public Services in Europe, 2008–2016. I Laenen, Tijs; Meuleman, Bart & van Oorschot, Wim (Red.), Welfare State Legitimacy in Times of Crisis and Austerity. Between Continuity and Change. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 978 1 78897 629 9. s. 201–221.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan (2019). Konsensus om den norske velferdsstaten? I Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Red.), Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. ISSN 978-82-02-60971-9. s. 201–222.
• Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan (2019). Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust . West European Politics. ISSN 0140-2382. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2019.1596733. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Momentous events in Western democracies have brought renewed attention to how various aspects of government-controlled policy outputs and outcomes affect citizens’ trust in politics. Unlike most previous research, this study uses individual-level panel data to test the link between government performance evaluations and political trust. Moreover, it gauges performance in more policy areas than previous research, including key aspects of government-controlled social services as well as a wide range of economic risks. The study finds that evaluations of government performance affect political trust but that the evidence is stronger for evaluations of social protection than for economic risks. Crucially, the analysis suggests that the relationship between performance evaluations and distrust is reciprocal. The relationship may be described as a ‘downbound spiral’ where dissatisfied groups develop distrust, which in turn makes for a more pessimistic interpretation of economic risks and welfare state performance.

• Goerres, Achim; Kumlin, Staffan & Karlsen, Rune (2019). Pressure without Pain: What Politicians (Don’t) Tell You about Welfare State Change. Journal of Social Policy. ISSN 0047-2794. 48(4), s. 861–884. doi: 10.1017/S0047279419000138. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  How do political leaders politicise welfare state “reform pressures”, e.g. unemployment, ageing or globalisation, in election campaigns? Competing expectations range from no politicization at all to a clear and unbiased coupling between pressures and intended policy responses. Eighteen speeches held by prime ministerial candidates at election-year party congresses in Germany, Norway and Sweden (2000–2010) reveal an unfinished and biased problem-solution coupling. On the one hand, even in these affluent countries pressures are frequently politicised. On the other hand, leaders either cherry-pick less painful policy solutions, or refrain altogether from debating them. So, while citizens learn that the welfare state is pressured, they are not exposed to the full range of policies they increasingly have reason to expect after elections.

• Kumlin, Staffan (2018). Beyond Crowding In and Out: Why We Need to Study Policy Design in a Communicative Context. Czech Sociological Review. ISSN 1210-3861. 54(6), s. 961–963.
• Goerres, Achim; Karlsen, Rune & Kumlin, Staffan (2018). What Makes People Worry about the Welfare State? A Three-Country Experiment. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 50(4), s. 1519–1537. doi: 10.1017/S0007123418000224. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Welfare states are exposed to a host of cost-inducing ‘reform pressures’. An experiment implemented in Germany, Norway and Sweden tests how various reform pressure frames affect perceptions about the future financial sustainability of the welfare state. Such perceptions have been shown to moderate electoral punishment for welfare reform, but little is known about their origins. Hypotheses are formulated in dialogue with newer research on welfare state change, as well as with older theory expecting more stability in policy and attitudes (the ‘new politics’ framework). Research drawing on ‘deservingness theory’ is also consulted. The results suggest large variations in impact across treatments. The most influential path to effective pressure framing is to ‘zoom in’ on specific economic pressures linked to undeserving groups (above all immigration, but also to some extent low employment). Conversely, a message emphasizing pressure linked to a very deserving group (population aging) had little effect. A second conceivable path to pressure framing entails ‘zooming out’ – making messages span a diverse and more broadly threatening set of challenges. This possibility, however, received weaker support.

• Goerres, Achim; Spies, Dennis C. & Kumlin, Staffan (2018). The electoral supporter base of the Alternative for Germany. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft. ISSN 1424-7755. 24(3), s. 246–269. doi: 10.1111/spsr.12306. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kumlin, Staffan; Wollebæk, Dag; Fladmoe, Audun & Steen-Johnsen, Kari (2017). Leap of Faith or Judgment of Deservingness? Generalized Trust, Trust in Immigrants and Support for the Welfare State. I Oorschot, Wim van; Roosma, Femke; Meuleman, Bart & Reeskens, Tim (Red.), The Social Legitimacy of Targeted Welfare: Attitudes to welfare Deservingness. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781785367205. s. 281–296. doi: 10.4337/9781785367212.00031.
• Kumlin, Staffan; Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2017). Trust and the Welfare State. I Uslaner, Eric M. (Red.), Oxford Handbook of Social and Political Trust (online version published January 2017). Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780190274801. s. 385–408. doi: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190274801.013.8.
• Kumlin, Staffan & Haugsgjerd, Atle (2017). The Welfare State and Political Trust: Bringing Performance Back In. I Zmerli, Sonja & van der Meer, Tom (Red.), Handbook on Political Trust. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781782545101. s. 285–301.
• Jakobsson, Lars Niklas & Kumlin, Staffan (2017). Election Campaign Agendas, Government Partisanship, and the Welfare State. European Political Science Review. ISSN 1755-7739. 9(2 (May)), s. 183–208. doi: 10.1017/S175577391500034X. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Although theoretically contentious, most empirical studies contend that electoral-political factors structure the welfare state. In practice, most studies concentrate on ‘government partisanship’, that is the ideological character of the government. We agree that politics matters but also seek to expand our understanding of what ‘politics’ should be taken to mean. Drawing on recent comparative research on agenda-setting, we study the impact of whether welfare state issues were broadly salient in the public sphere during the election campaign that produced the government. We formulate hypotheses about how such systemic campaign salience and government partisanship (separately and interactively) affect welfare generosity. We also consider how such effects might have changed, taking into account challenges to standard assumptions of representative democracy coming from the ‘new politics of the welfare state’ framework. We combine well-known, but updated, data on welfare state generosity and government partisanship, with original contextual data on campaign salience from 16 West European countries for the years 1980–2008. We find that campaigns matter but also that their impact has changed. During the first half of the examined period (the 1980s and early 1990s), it mainly served to facilitate government partisanship effects on the welfare state. More recently, big-time campaign attention to welfare state issues results in some retrenchment (almost) regardless of who forms the postelection government. This raises concerns about the democratic status of the politics of welfare state reform in Europe.

• Kumlin, Staffan & Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle (2016). Studying How Policies Affect the People: Grappling with Measurement, Causality, and the Macro-Micro Divide. I Keman, Hans & Woldendorp, Jaap (Red.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Political Science. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781784710811. s. 343–358.
• Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (2014). How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Borrowing Strength across Research Communities. I Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Red.), How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781782545484. s. 311–325. doi: 10.4337/9781782545491.00025.
• Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (2014). Citizens, Policy Feedback and European Welfare States. I Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Red.), How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781782545484. s. 3–16. doi: 10.4337/9781782545491.00007.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2014). Informed Performance Evaluation of the Welfare State? Experimental and Real-World Findings. I Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Red.), How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781782545484. s. 289–310. doi: 10.4337/9781782545491.00023.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2014). Policy Feedback in Political Context: Unemployment Benefits, Election Campaigns, and Democratic Satisfaction. I Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Red.), How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781782545484. s. 181–197. doi: 10.4337/9781782545491.00018.
• Kumlin, Staffan & Esaiasson, Peter (2012). Scandal Fatigue? Scandal Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy in Western Europe, 1977–2007. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 42, s. 263–282. doi: 10.1017/S000712341100024X.
• Kumlin, Per Staffan (2011). Dissatisfied Democrats, Policy Feedback, and European Welfare States, 1976-2001. I Zmerli, Sonja & Hooghe, Marc (Red.), Political Trust: Why Context Matters. ECPR Press. ISSN 9781907301230. s. 163–186.
• Kumlin, Per Staffan (2011). Claiming blame and giving credit? Unintended effects of how government and opposition frame the Europeanization of welfare. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. 12(4), s. 575–595. doi: 10.1177/1465116511417296.

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• Kumlin, Staffan & Goerres, Achim (2022). Election Campaigns and Welfare State Change: Democratic Linkage and Leadership Under Pressure. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-886921-4. 224 s.
• Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (2014). How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 9781782545484. 337 s.
• Johansson, Bengt; Kumlin, Staffan; Naurin, Elin & Wängnerud, Lena (2014). Det politiska spelet : Medborgare, medier och politiker i den representativa demokratin. Studentlitteratur AB. ISBN 978-91-4408073-4. 239 s. Vis sammendrag

  Spelar det någon roll vem som sitter i riksdagen? Är nyheter om politik vinklade? Är det journalister som sätter den politiska dagordningen? Hur och när påverkar opinionen vilken politik som faktiskt förs? Kan det också vara den förda politiken som påverkar opinionen? Frågor som dessa är centrala för att förstå samspelet mellan medborgare, medier och politiker i en representativ demokrati. Frågorna belyser hur olika aktörer är beroende av varandra. Titeln på denna bok - Det politiska spelet - signalerar att medborgare, medier och politiker ingår i ett nätverk av skeenden och att det finns en spelplan som påverkar dessa skeenden och aktörernas handlingar. Boken tar sin utgångspunkt i en diskussion om centrala demokratiteoretiska värden som politisk jämlikhet, upplyst förståelse och folkviljans förverkligande. Varje kapitel inleds med en högaktuell fråga. Därefter presenteras omfattande resultat från såväl svensk som internationell samhällsvetenskaplig forskning. I varje kapitel diskuteras kopplingen mellan demokratiteoretiska värden och empiriska resultat: Lever verkligheten upp till olika demokratideal? Hur borde demokratin fungera och varför? Samtidigt utvärderas forskningen - ställer forskningen "rätt" frågor och vad är viktiga frågor för framtida forskning att försöka besvara? Syftet med boken är att väcka entusiasm för viktiga demokrati frågor men också för den forskning som bedrivs. Boken ger välgrundade svar till den som vill veta mer om hur medborgare, medier och politiker förhåller sig till varandra i dagens moderna samhällen.

• Kumlin, Staffan (2004). The Personal and the Political. How Personal Welfare State Experiences Affect Political Trust and Ideology. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 1-4039-6451-3. 260 s.

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• Kumlin, Staffan (2023). Når systemet skuffer: Tillit til velferdssystemet. [Internett]. nrk.no.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2023). Ryktene om venstre-høyrekonfliktens død. Morgenbladet. ISSN 0805-3847.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Hva er tillit, og hva betyr det for velferdsstaten?
• Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Political Trust and Policy Demand in Changing Welfare States.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Political Trust in Changing Welfare States: Bringing Performance Back In.
• Finseraas, Henning; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Immigration Cues and Perceived Welfare State Sustainability: Understanding Variability in Political Reactions to Fiscally Costly Immigration.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2021). Tillit til forvaltningen og myndighetene. Hearing med OECD i samarbeid med Direktorat for forvaltning og økonomistyring v/Avdeling for forvaltningsanalyse (APA) .
• Silke, Goubin & Kumlin, Staffan (2020). The Dual Function of Political Trust in Changing Welfare States: Building Normative Support and Easing Reform Acceptance .
• Kumlin, Staffan (2020). Kenneth Newton: Surprising News: How the Media Affect—and Do Not—Affect—Politics. Czech Sociological Review. ISSN 1210-3861. 56(3), s. 419–421.
• Kumlin, Staffan (2017). Could the Political Consequences of Class Marginalization Be Different? The Political Quarterly. ISSN 0032-3179.

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