Academic interests
Staffan Kumlin's research concerns comparative political behaviour, public opinion, and democracy in European welfare states. His most recent book is the co-authored Election Campaigns and Welfare State Change: Democratic Linkage and Leadership Under Pressure (Oxford UP, 2022). Previous books include The Personal and the Political: How Personal Welfare State Experiences Affect Political Trust and Ideology (Palgrave-Macmillan 2004) and the co-edited How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2014). He has also published in numerous scientific journals such as British Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of Political Research, Journal of European Public Policy, and European Sociological Review. He has authored chapters in numerous edited books including The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior and The Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State. Kumlin co-designed the "welfare state module" in the 2016 European Social Survey 2016 and is co-author of a textbook on representative democracy called Det politiska spelet. Medborgare, medier och politiker i den representativa demokratin (Studentlitteratur 2014).
Kumlin is Head of PhD studies in political science at UiO and associated researcher at University of Konstanz's Cluster of Excellence The Politics of Inequality
Background
Staffan Kumlin was previously full Professor of political science at University of Gothenburg and Research Professor at Institute for Social Research in Oslo. He has also been employed at Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study, Uppsala University, and spent longer periods as visiting fellow at Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB) and at Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute in Florence, and University of Konstanz.
Media
Awards
In 2005 Staffan Kumlin became the first political scientist to receive a Pro Futura Fellowship from Riksbankens Jubileumsfond.
Publications
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Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Kumlin, Staffan & Linde, Jonas
(2026).
Politisk tillit under press i Norge?
In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.),
Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025.
Cappelen Damm AS.
ISSN 9788202923822.
p. 393–421.
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This chapter examines how political trust in Norway has developed over time and asks whether recent trends indicate a decline. Using time series from the Norwegian Election Studies, it analyses trust in political institutions and trust in politicians. It also examines differences by generation and gender, as well as winner–loser differences in political trust. The chapter shows that Norway still has high levels of political trust in comparative perspective, but that the overall picture is less stable than before. Trust in political institutions has remained relatively robust since 2005, although it declined from 2021 to 2025. Trust in politicians follows a clearer and more long-term decline, reaching its lowest level in 2025. The analyses also reveal growing differences by generation and gender. Younger cohorts, especially young men, have markedly lower trust in politicians than earlier generations had at the same age. Finally, the winner–loser gap in political trust has historically been small in Norway. In 2025, however, this gap became more pronounced, especially for trust in politicians. The chapter
concludes that although Norway is not facing a dramatic trust crisis, several emerging patterns warrant attention.
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Goubin, Silke; Jacques, Olivier; Kumlin, Staffan & Weisstanner, David
(2026).
Why Some Want Something for Nothing: Three Explanations for Unfunded Spending Demand.
Scandinavian Political Studies.
ISSN 0080-6757.
49(1).
doi:
10.1111/1467-9477.70034.
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ABSTRACT Several studies have documented ‘something for nothing’ (SFN) attitudes among citizens: preferences for increased government spending and lower taxes. Such a demand for unfunded public spending may generate unsustainable fiscal pressures. However, it is unclear what causes SFN attitudes at the individual level. While previous research emphasizes the role of political information, we explore how SFN attitudes also represent a rational response to economic vulnerability and service dissatisfaction. Using an original survey in Norway, we find that economic vulnerability is a pivotal explanation of SFN attitudes: lower income and education, being a benefit recipient, and perceived economic risks drive demand for welfare state support but dampen support for taxation. We also observe that political information and service satisfaction partially alleviate SFN attitudes by increasing taxation support more than spending demand. Understanding these drivers for unfunded public spending has implications for the sustainability of the welfare state.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Linde, Jonas
(2025).
Political Trust in Norway; A Large But Lopsided Research Field.
In Kolltveit, Kristoffer; Allern, Elin Haugsgjerd; Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid & Rasch, Bjørn Erik (Ed.),
The Oxford Handbook of Norwegian Politics.
Oxford University Press.
ISSN 9780198888581.
p. 436–454.
doi:
10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198888581.013.0023.
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Abstract This chapter presents an overview of research on political trust in Norway. The chapter first discusses levels and time trends along different trust dimensions. We then move to explanations of political trust. Here, we discuss factors that play a similar role in Norway compared to other rich Western democracies, as well as highlighting some that are especially important or even specific to Norway. Relatedly, we discuss research on how Norway’s exceptional oil wealth may have complex and partly negative consequences. The final section discusses the so far limited work on the consequences of political trust in Norway. The concluding section notes that Norwegian research on political trust is lopsided in important ways. Scholars have convincingly documented—but only partly explained—the high and mostly stable levels of political trust as a defining feature of Norwegian politics. Meanwhile, there has been remarkably little research on the consequences of high political trust.
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Syrstad, Tor Gaute; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Kumlin, Staffan
(2025).
Iceberg of discontent? Emotional responses to welfare state development and political trust.
Journal of European Social Policy.
ISSN 0958-9287.
35(5),
p. 500–515.
doi:
10.1177/09589287251337883.
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An association between welfare state performance evaluations and political trust has been observed in Europe for a long time. The independent variables in this research typically come from concrete and cognitively oriented survey questions about specific services and social protection. The role of diffuse emotions is often implicitly recognized but not empirically measured. Using primary 2022 panel data, we develop novel measures of emotional reactions to the development of public services and social protection. Such “welfare state emotions” capture significantly more negativity and dissatisfaction than previously found in this policy domain. However, consistent with work on political emotions they also reveal complexity in that negative and positive emotions form relatively independent dimensions. Moreover, welfare state emotions are only weakly correlated with traditional concrete performance evaluations measures. Meanwhile, fixed effects panel models suggest a causal relationship between emotions and political trust also when controlling for traditional measures.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Nemcok, Miroslav
(2024).
Perceiving welfare state sustainability: fiscal costs, group deservingness, or ideology?
Journal of Public Policy.
ISSN 0143-814X.
44(3),
p. 638–658.
doi:
10.1017/S0143814X24000126.
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What shapes citizens’ perceptions of long-term welfare state sustainability? Past work hints at three explanations: information about fiscal pressure, deservingness views of recipient groups, and left-right ideology. We consider all three in an experiment exposing people to information about fiscal costs and/or low deservingness in the labor market domain. Left-right ideology functions as a moderator. Unlike past work, which has concentrated on demographic pressures, information about fiscal costs does not generate worries about sustainability (separately or combined with deservingness cues). Rather, left-right ideology moderates reactions. People on the left seem to question and counterargue against fiscal pressure, such that when facing negative information, they develop more positive sustainability views. This counter-reaction coexists with statistically insignificant effects in the negative direction among people on the right. These ideological contingencies arise without partisan cues, suggesting that welfare state pressure itself is ideologically controversial in the labor market domain.
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Kumlin, Staffan; Nemcok, Miroslav & Hootegem, Arno van
(2024).
Welfare state evaluations, normative expectations, and political trust: longitudinal evidence from Germany and Norway.
Public Management Review.
ISSN 1471-9037.
doi:
10.1080/14719037.2023.2297292.
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The expectancy-disconfirmation model (EDM) explains satisfaction with public services as a combination of service expectations and perceived performance. We study how satisfaction in turn affects political trust. We mimic the EDM logic by assessing interactions with political-ideological ‘normative expectations’. Three-wave panel surveys from Germany and Norway contain general and specific measures of satisfaction. Multilevel models show robust between-, and multiple instances of within-individual, associations between satisfaction and trust. Interactions with normative expectations are mostly absent, however. Overall, the variables highlighted by the EDM seem to affect generalized political trust. But the expectancy-disconfirmation logic may not repeat itself at this general political level.
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Finseraas, Henning; Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum & Kumlin, Staffan
(2023).
Immigration and welfare state sustainability: whose perception is affected by fiscal cost cues?
Journal of European Public Policy.
ISSN 1350-1763.
doi:
10.1080/13501763.2023.2166572.
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Who reacts politically to fiscally costly immigration? A political economy tradition holds that reactions depend on economic self-interest, whereas a social psychology tradition emphasizes generalized political orientations and trust. Past work largely leans in favor of the latter tradition. We make three contributions. First, our dependent variable is a concrete perception of welfare state sustainability, arguably better suited to capture self-interest. Second, both the political economy- and social psychology traditions have been studied narrowly; we separate between multiple interests (including economic local context), and compare several types of trust orientations. Third, we use machine learning methods well-suited to analyze treatment heterogeneity in a randomized survey experiment. We find support for both interest-based and social psychological explanations. As for the latter, what matters is not only, or even mainly, orientations/trust related to immigration. Rather, generalized political distrust strongly regulates when costly immigration cues trigger welfare sustainability worries.
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Goubin, Silke & Kumlin, Staffan
(2022).
Political Trust and Policy Demand in Changing Welfare States: Building Normative Support and Easing Reform Acceptance?
European Sociological Review.
ISSN 0266-7215.
38(4),
p. 590–604.
doi:
10.1093/esr/jcab061.
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Blok, Lisanne de & Kumlin, Staffan
(2021).
Losers’ Consent in Changing Welfare States: Output Dissatisfaction, Experienced Voice and Political Distrust.
Political Studies.
ISSN 0032-3217.
p. 1–20.
doi:
10.1177/0032321721993646.
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Mature welfare states must increasingly handle growing fiscal pressures and a multitude of needs with smaller resources. Meanwhile, evaluations of policy outputs are characterized as ‘the weakest link’ in welfare state support, resulting in generalized political distrust. We assess the procedural fairness argument that citizens are not only concerned with welfare state outcomes but also assess the fairness of the processes of service delivery. The fairness perspective has usually been tested in cross-sectional studies, experiments or on the ‘input side’ of democracy. By contrast, we use primary three-wave panel data on evaluations and experiences with welfare state institutions. The random-effects within-between framework allows improved causal evidence that both outputs (service quality satisfaction) and procedural fairness (experienced voice opportunities) affect political trust. Crucially, however, perceived fairness mitigates detrimental effects of poor outcomes. This is because procedural voice matters, especially for the formation of political trust among losers.
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Kumlin, Staffan; Goerres, Achim & Spies, Dennis C.
(2021).
Public Attitudes.
In Béland, Daniel; Morgan, Kimberly J.; Obinger, Herbert & Pierson, Christopher (Ed.),
Oxford Handbook of the Welfare State, 2nd ed.
Oxford University Press.
ISSN 9780198828389.
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Blok, Lisanne de; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan
(2020).
Increasingly Connected? Political Distrust and Dissatisfaction with Public Services in Europe, 2008–2016.
In Laenen, Tijs; Meuleman, Bart & Oorschot, Wim van (Ed.),
Welfare State Legitimacy in Times of Crisis and Austerity. Between Continuity and Change.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781788976299.
p. 201–221.
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Goerres, Achim; Kumlin, Staffan & Karlsen, Rune
(2019).
Pressure without Pain: What Politicians (Don’t) Tell You about Welfare State Change.
Journal of Social Policy.
ISSN 0047-2794.
48(4),
p. 861–884.
doi:
10.1017/S0047279419000138.
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How do political leaders politicise welfare state “reform pressures”, e.g. unemployment, ageing or globalisation, in election campaigns? Competing expectations range from no politicization at all to a clear and unbiased coupling between pressures and intended policy responses. Eighteen speeches held by prime ministerial candidates at election-year party congresses in Germany, Norway and Sweden (2000–2010) reveal an unfinished and biased problem-solution coupling. On the one hand, even in these affluent countries pressures are frequently politicised. On the other hand, leaders either cherry-pick less painful policy solutions, or refrain altogether from debating them. So, while citizens learn that the welfare state is pressured, they are not exposed to the full range of policies they increasingly have reason to expect after elections.
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Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan
(2019).
Downbound spiral? Economic grievances, perceived social protection and political distrust.
West European Politics.
ISSN 0140-2382.
doi:
10.1080/01402382.2019.1596733.
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Momentous events in Western democracies have brought renewed attention to how various aspects of government-controlled policy outputs and outcomes affect citizens’ trust in politics. Unlike most previous research, this study uses individual-level panel data to test the link between government performance evaluations and political trust. Moreover, it gauges performance in more policy areas than previous research, including key aspects of government-controlled social services as well as a wide range of economic risks. The study finds that evaluations of government performance affect political trust but that the evidence is stronger for evaluations of social protection than for economic risks. Crucially, the analysis suggests that the relationship between performance evaluations and distrust is reciprocal. The relationship may be described as a ‘downbound spiral’ where dissatisfied groups develop distrust, which in turn makes for a more pessimistic interpretation of economic risks and welfare state performance.
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Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan
(2019).
Konsensus om den norske velferdsstaten?
In Bergh, Johannes & Aardal, Bernt (Ed.),
Velgere og valgkamp. En studie av stortingsvalget 2017.
Cappelen Damm Akademisk.
ISSN 9788202609719.
p. 201–222.
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2018).
Beyond Crowding In and Out: Why We Need to Study Policy Design in a Communicative Context.
Czech Sociological Review.
ISSN 1210-3861.
54(6),
p. 961–963.
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Goerres, Achim; Spies, Dennis C. & Kumlin, Staffan
(2018).
The electoral supporter base of the Alternative for Germany.
Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft.
ISSN 1424-7755.
24(3),
p. 246–269.
doi:
10.1111/spsr.12306.
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Using data from a recent nationwide survey, we provide the first analysis of the supporter base of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) since the party's split and ideological re‐orientation in mid‐2015. Hypotheses are derived from the literature on Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) in Western Europe. Our findings indicate that AfD support—despite the party's euro crisis origins and rapid organizational and ideational changes—is by now due to largely the same set of socio‐economic, attitudinal and contextual factors proven important for PRRP parties elsewhere. Right‐wing political attitudes concerning immigration, political distrust, fears of personal economic decline, as well as gender and socialisation effects are the most relevant explanatory variables. However, some of our findings – the importance of right‐wing economic policy preferences, the strong support by certain immigrant groups, and the role of the long‐term regional political context – stand out and distinguish the AfD from other Western European PRRPs.
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Goerres, Achim; Karlsen, Rune & Kumlin, Staffan
(2018).
What Makes People Worry about the Welfare State? A Three-Country Experiment.
British Journal of Political Science.
ISSN 0007-1234.
50(4),
p. 1519–1537.
doi:
10.1017/S0007123418000224.
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Welfare states are exposed to a host of cost-inducing ‘reform pressures’. An experiment implemented in Germany, Norway and Sweden tests how various reform pressure frames affect perceptions about the future financial sustainability of the welfare state. Such perceptions have been shown to moderate electoral punishment for welfare reform, but little is known about their origins. Hypotheses are formulated in dialogue with newer research on welfare state change, as well as with older theory expecting more stability in policy and attitudes (the ‘new politics’ framework). Research drawing on ‘deservingness theory’ is also consulted. The results suggest large variations in impact across treatments. The most influential path to effective pressure framing is to ‘zoom in’ on specific economic pressures linked to undeserving groups (above all immigration, but also to some extent low employment). Conversely, a message emphasizing pressure linked to a very deserving group (population aging) had little effect. A second conceivable path to pressure framing entails ‘zooming out’ – making messages span a diverse and more broadly threatening set of challenges. This possibility, however, received weaker support.
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Jakobsson, Lars Niklas & Kumlin, Staffan
(2017).
Election Campaign Agendas, Government Partisanship, and the Welfare State.
European Political Science Review.
ISSN 1755-7739.
9(2 (May)),
p. 183–208.
doi:
10.1017/S175577391500034X.
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Although theoretically contentious, most empirical studies contend that electoral-political factors structure the welfare state. In practice, most studies concentrate on ‘government partisanship’, that is the ideological character of the government. We agree that politics matters but also seek to expand our understanding of what ‘politics’ should be taken to mean. Drawing on recent comparative research on agenda-setting, we study the impact of whether welfare state issues were broadly salient in the public sphere during the election campaign that produced the government. We formulate hypotheses about how such systemic campaign salience and government partisanship (separately and interactively) affect welfare generosity. We also consider how such effects might have changed, taking into account challenges to standard assumptions of representative democracy coming from the ‘new politics of the welfare state’ framework. We combine well-known, but updated, data on welfare state generosity and government partisanship, with original contextual data on campaign salience from 16 West European countries for the years 1980–2008. We find that campaigns matter but also that their impact has changed. During the first half of the examined period (the 1980s and early 1990s), it mainly served to facilitate government partisanship effects on the welfare state. More recently, big-time campaign attention to welfare state issues results in some retrenchment (almost) regardless of who forms the postelection government. This raises concerns about the democratic status of the politics of welfare state reform in Europe.
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Kumlin, Staffan; Wollebæk, Dag; Fladmoe, Audun & Steen-Johnsen, Kari
(2017).
Leap of Faith or Judgment of Deservingness? Generalized Trust, Trust in Immigrants and Support for the Welfare State.
In Oorschot, Wim van; Roosma, Femke; Meuleman, Bart & Reeskens, Tim (Ed.),
The Social Legitimacy of Targeted Welfare: Attitudes to welfare Deservingness.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781785367205.
p. 281–296.
doi:
10.4337/9781785367212.00031.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Haugsgjerd, Atle
(2017).
The Welfare State and Political Trust: Bringing Performance Back In.
In Zmerli, Sonja & Meer, Tom van der (Ed.),
Handbook on Political Trust.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781782545101.
p. 285–301.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle
(2016).
Studying How Policies Affect the People: Grappling with Measurement, Causality, and the Macro-Micro Divide.
In Keman, Hans & Woldendorp, Jaap (Ed.),
Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Political Science.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781784710811.
p. 343–358.
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2014).
Informed Performance Evaluation of the Welfare State? Experimental and Real-World Findings.
In Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Ed.),
How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781782545484.
p. 289–310.
doi:
10.4337/9781782545491.00023.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle
(2014).
How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Borrowing Strength across Research Communities.
In Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Ed.),
How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781782545484.
p. 311–325.
doi:
10.4337/9781782545491.00025.
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2014).
Policy Feedback in Political Context: Unemployment Benefits, Election Campaigns, and Democratic Satisfaction.
In Kumlin, Staffan & Steffen-Stadelmann, Isabelle (Ed.),
How Welfare States Shape the Democratic Public: Policy Feedback, Participation, Voting, and Attitudes.
Edward Elgar Publishing.
ISSN 9781782545484.
p. 181–197.
doi:
10.4337/9781782545491.00018.
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Kumlin, Staffan & Esaiasson, Peter
(2012).
Scandal Fatigue? Scandal Elections and Satisfaction with Democracy in Western Europe, 1977–2007.
British Journal of Political Science.
ISSN 0007-1234.
42,
p. 263–282.
doi:
10.1017/S000712341100024X.
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Kumlin, Per Staffan
(2011).
Dissatisfied Democrats, Policy Feedback, and European Welfare States, 1976-2001.
In Zmerli, Sonja & Hooghe, Marc (Ed.),
Political Trust: Why Context Matters.
ECPR Press.
ISSN 9781907301230.
p. 163–186.
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Kumlin, Per Staffan
(2011).
Claiming blame and giving credit? Unintended effects of how government and opposition frame the Europeanization of welfare.
European Union Politics.
ISSN 1465-1165.
12(4),
p. 575–595.
doi:
10.1177/1465116511417296.
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Johansson, Bengt; Kumlin, Staffan; Naurin, Elin & Wängnerud, Lena
(2014).
Det politiska spelet : Medborgare, medier och politiker i den representativa demokratin.
Studentlitteratur AB.
ISBN 9789144080734.
239 p.
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Spelar det någon roll vem som sitter i riksdagen? Är nyheter om politik vinklade? Är det journalister som sätter den politiska dagordningen? Hur och när påverkar opinionen vilken politik som faktiskt förs? Kan det också vara den förda politiken som påverkar opinionen?
Frågor som dessa är centrala för att förstå samspelet mellan medborgare, medier och politiker i en representativ demokrati. Frågorna belyser hur olika aktörer är beroende av varandra. Titeln på denna bok - Det politiska spelet - signalerar att medborgare, medier och politiker ingår i ett nätverk av skeenden och att det finns en spelplan som påverkar dessa skeenden och aktörernas handlingar. Boken tar sin utgångspunkt i en diskussion om centrala demokratiteoretiska värden som politisk jämlikhet, upplyst förståelse och folkviljans förverkligande. Varje kapitel inleds med en högaktuell fråga. Därefter presenteras omfattande resultat från såväl svensk som internationell samhällsvetenskaplig forskning. I varje kapitel diskuteras kopplingen mellan demokratiteoretiska värden och empiriska resultat: Lever verkligheten upp till olika demokratideal? Hur borde demokratin fungera och varför? Samtidigt utvärderas forskningen - ställer forskningen "rätt" frågor och vad är viktiga frågor för framtida forskning att försöka besvara?
Syftet med boken är att väcka entusiasm för viktiga demokrati frågor men också för den forskning som bedrivs. Boken ger välgrundade svar till den som vill veta mer om hur medborgare, medier och politiker förhåller sig till varandra i dagens moderna samhällen.
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Nemcok, Miroslav; Hootegem, Arno Van & Kumlin, Staffan
(2024).
Unfulfilled Expectations and Unexpected Help: How Initial Risks and Subsequent Welfare Benefits Jointly Shape Political Trust.
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Nemcok, Miroslav; Hootegem, Arno Van & Kumlin, Staffan
(2023).
Unfulfilled Expectations and Unexpected Help: How Initial Risks and Subsequent Welfare Benefits Jointly Shape Political Trust.
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Finseraas, Henning; Haugsgjerd, Atle & Kumlin, Staffan
(2021).
Immigration Cues and Perceived Welfare State Sustainability: Understanding Variability in Political Reactions to Fiscally Costly Immigration.
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2021).
Tillit til forvaltningen og myndighetene. Hearing med OECD i samarbeid med Direktorat for forvaltning og økonomistyring v/Avdeling for forvaltningsanalyse (APA).
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2020).
Kenneth Newton: Surprising News: How the Media Affect—and Do Not—Affect—Politics.
Czech Sociological Review.
ISSN 1210-3861.
56(3),
p. 419–421.
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Silke, Goubin & Kumlin, Staffan
(2020).
The Dual Function of Political Trust in Changing Welfare States: Building Normative Support and Easing Reform Acceptance.
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Kumlin, Staffan
(2017).
Could the Political Consequences of Class Marginalization Be Different?
The Political Quarterly.
ISSN 0032-3179.
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Published
Nov. 17, 2016 10:25 AM
- Last modified
Apr. 29, 2026 1:55 PM
