Andreas Forø Tollefsen

• Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Scales, Sarah Elizabeth; Gans, Fabian; Ndugwa, Jemimah; Huang, Peter & Torres, Álvaro José Guerrero [Vis alle 13 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2026). The MERGE Dataset: A Harmonized Global Resource for Climate Disaster Impacts and Human Vulnerability. Scientific Data. 13. doi: 10.1038/s41597-026-07522-7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The MERGE Initiative is a global data infrastructure designed to address one of the most persistent challenges in climate disaster research and response: the fragmentation of data across incompatible systems, sectors, and formats. Despite a growing abundance of disaster-related data, the lack of harmonization and integration standards continues to hamper effective decision-making, risk modelling, and anticipatory action. MERGE brings together data holders and subject matter experts from leading scientific institutions, working collaboratively to curate, align, and integrate trustworthy data across disciplines at global scales. MERGE has, in its proof-of-concept phase, created a publicly available pilot dataset that integrates 250 + variables from 10 distinct databases. This MERGE pilot dataset is being used to develop cutting-edge data and methods to support researchers, governmental decision-makers, international financial institutions, local responders, and policymakers through access to timely and relevant data on climate-related disasters and human vulnerability. The MERGE platform is a public good and the proof-of-concept dataset is publicly available.

• Haer, Roos; Nordås, Ragnhild; Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2026). Warfare and Schooling: The Impact of Conflict Tactics Targeting Children on Educational Enrollment. Journal of Development Studies. ISSN 0022-0388. s. 1–19. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2026.2654513. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The developmental consequences of armed conflict affect millions of children, with education being one of the most severely impacted areas. While existing studies examine country-level associations and emphasise conflict intensity, we focus on analysing the specific impact of conflict tactics that target children on primary school enrolment—namely, child soldier recruitment and sexual violence against minors. We argue that these tactics can negatively affect enrolment decisions in part because of security concerns, leading parents/guardians to keep children who are vulnerable and at risk of abuse away from school. Empirically, we link 59 georeferenced Demographic and Health Surveys from 30 sub-Saharan African countries with conflict data from the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset, incorporating information on the use of child-targeted conflict tactics. Using linear probability models, we find that general conflict incidence is associated with a decrease in the likelihood of primary school enrolment. However, the effects are stronger for child-targeted strategies: exposure to child soldier recruitment is associated with a 3.2% reduction, and conflict-related sexual violence with a 9.5% reduction in school enrolment probability. Both these child-specific conflict tactics are especially harmful to girls’ likelihood of enrolment. These findings add important nuance to our understanding of how conflict affects education.

• Selig, Elizabeth; Achi, Nahla Gedeon; Sundnes, Frode; Wabnitz, Colette C.C.; Nakayama, Shinnosuke & Hjermann, Dag Øystein [Vis alle 17 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2026). Patterns of marine resource conflicts across Africa highlight need for fair access and benefit sharing for a blue economy. One Earth. ISSN 2590-3330. 9(14). doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101644. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  An increased focus on the blue economy across coastal African countries requires effective strategies for reducing marine resource conflicts to achieve goals of sustainable, equitable ocean development. We created a spatial database documenting marine resource conflicts (2008–2018) and conducted an expert survey to analyze patterns in conflict types and how they relate to actors, drivers, and resolution. Our findings indicate that 73% of conflicts were associated with access disputes and 28% were between non-fisheries sectors. National governments, small-scale or industrial fishers, and state enforcement agents were the most frequent actors. Illegal fishing, inequitable benefit distribution, and inadequate regulations were commonly reported conflict drivers. Less than one third of conflicts were resolved, but increased governance was cited as important for resolution. These results suggest policymakers may need to focus on access and benefit sharing issues and increase engagement of key actors in governance processes to realize blue economy ambitions.

• Haugseth, Eirin; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Dyrstad, Karin (2026). Forced migrant arrivals can reduce political trust in African host communities. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 203, s. 107396–107396. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107396. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Previous research shows that the arrival of forcibly displaced people may have a considerable impact on the economy and on livelihoods within host communities. This is particularly the case in many African countries, which host many of the world’s refugees, but may have limited capacity to handle sudden influxes of people. Yet the bulk of research on refugee arrivals and public opinion is conducted in wealthy, Western contexts. In this article, we start addressing this gap by assessing the effect of forced displacement on trust in national and local authorities. Theoretically, we draw on the literatures on the consequences of forced migration and political trust. Empirically, we rely on seven rounds of georeferenced Afrobarometer data (N = 228,242) combined with data on migrant settlements from the UNHCR People of Concern database to estimate a set of difference-in-differences regression models. We also test whether individual educational attainment moderates the effect of displacement. We find that camp establishment reduces both forms of political trust, and the effect is more pronounced among host community members with less education. This underscores the importance of human development in bolstering the host community’s coping capacity when new camps are established.

• Østby, Gudrun & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2025). Forced displacement and utilization of maternal health care services in host communities: micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1986–2016. Journal of Refugee Studies. ISSN 0951-6328. 38(3), s. 655–673. doi: 10.1093/jrs/feae092. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Despite a growing literature on refugee health challenges, the effects of inflows of refugees on the utilization of health services in host communities remain largely ignored. Linking data on the location of displaced populations and geo-referenced survey data on the use of maternal health services in 30 sub-Saharan African countries, we explore whether geographical proximity to refugee- and internally displaced person (IDP) camps and settlements affects the utilization of maternal health care among women in host communities. More specifically, we apply a mother fixed-effects analysis isolating the effect of hosting refugees and IDPs on the probability of delivering at a health facility. We find that living within 25 km of displaced population significantly increases the likelihood of institutional births. This effect is stronger for the poorest mothers. Our study disproves the common misconception that refugees and IDPs have a negative impact on their host communities. Rather, we find a positive effect of hosting displaced populations.

• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2025). Conceptualizing and Measuring Conflict-Related Determinants of Migration. Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies. ISSN 1556-2948. doi: 10.1080/15562948.2025.2499816. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, we develop an agenda for better conceptualization and measurement of conflict-related determinants of migration. Our systematic literature review underscores the need to move beyond binary approaches of conflict vs. non-conflict and avoid relying only on national-level data when investigating links between migration and conflict. Drawing on migration patterns among South Sudanese refugees, we suggest conceptual approaches and methodological avenues for more robust analysis, stressing attention to sub-national and individual-level data. This promises a more refined understanding of the interplay of conflict dynamics with both mobility and immobility, while remaining cognizant of people’s agency and the role of time.

• Talleraas, Cathrine; Erdal, Marta Bivand; Larssen, Marianne Friisberg & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2024). Refugee journey infrastructures: Exploring migration trajectories from South Sudan to Uganda. Population, Space and Place. ISSN 1544-8444. 31(1). doi: 10.1002/psp.2842. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This article investigates the nature of refugee journeys by triangulating open-ended, closed, and spatial survey data collected among South Sudanese refugees in Northern Uganda. While much research focuses on migration pathways across borders into the Global North, knowledge about refugees' journeys within their countries of origin or to neighbouring countries is limited. By targeting refugees' initial journeys out of conflict settings, we shed light on this little-studied aspect of the refugee experience, with the aim to contribute to a better understanding of refugees' choices en route. We scrutinise the geographies and dynamics of refugee journeys, including the impact of conflict and violence, travel companions, information sources, assistance, and modes of transportation. We further analyse the links between these experiences and the complexity, length, and duration of refugees' journeys, aiming to map the varying significance of what refugees face during their journeys. Drawing on the migration infrastructure literature, we adapt and apply these concepts to refugee journeys, enhancing our understanding of refugees' initial journeys within and out of conflict settings, conceptualised as refugee journey infrastructures.

• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Aslany, Maryam; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud; Carling, Jørgen & Sommerfelt, Tone [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). Migration drivers across time and space: selected examples, From Uncertainty to Policy: A Guide to Migration Scenarios. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781035319794. s. 39–52. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vestby, Jonas; Schutte, Sebastian; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Buhaug, Halvard (2024). Societal determinants of flood-induced displacement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 121(3). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2206188120. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  What explains human consequences of weather-related disaster? Here, we explore how core socioeconomic, political, and security conditions shape flood-induced displacement worldwide since 2000. In-sample regression analysis shows that extreme displacement levels are more likely in contexts marked by low national income levels, nondemocratic political systems, high local economic activity, and prevalence of armed conflict. The analysis also reveals large residual differences across continents, where flood-induced displacement in the Global South often is much more widespread than direct human exposure measures would suggest. However, these factors have limited influence on our ability to accurately predict flood displacement on new data, pointing to important, hard-to-operationalize heterogeneity in flood impacts across contexts and critical data limitations. Although results are consistent with an interpretation that the sustainable development agenda is beneficial for disaster risk reduction, better data on societal consequences of natural hazards are critically needed to support evidence-based decision-making.

• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Larssen, Marianne Friisberg; Talleraas, Cathrine & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2024). Education desires and conflict impacts in refugees’ decisions to leave. Migration Studies. ISSN 2049-5838. 12(4). doi: 10.1093/migration/mnae045. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In this article, we set out to unpack, explore and contribute to new understanding of how conflict and education emerge and intertwine in refugees’ reflections about their decisions to leave conflict-affected areas. We draw on a unique survey data set (n = 1008), with South Sudanese respondents, collected in two refugee settlements in Northern Uganda (2022), with structured and open-ended questions. We address three questions: (1) How do education-related factors emerge in refugees’ reflections about leaving conflict-affected areas? (2) How do education and conflict interact in refugees’ decisions to leave? and (3) What are the roles of education as desired for oneself and also for one’s children, in relation to migration decision-making? We draw on literature about education and migration-decisions, in and out of conflict, and apply recent theorization of migration drivers complexes, temporally approached as predisposing, proximate, precipitating, and mediating drivers. The article contributes to deepen understanding of agency throughout displacement, specifically in relation to people’s desire for education, for children, oneself, or both. Our findings also have implications for humanitarian response, in efforts to improve support for civilians affected by conflict, specifically focusing on provision of education (for both children and adults), wherever people may find themselves.

• Bartusevicius, Henrikas; Leeuwen, Florian Van; Mazepus, Honorata; Laustsen, Lasse & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2023). Russia's attacks on civilians strengthen Ukrainian resistance. PNAS Nexus. 2(12). doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad386. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine commencing in February 2022 has been characterized by systematic violence against civilians. Presumably, the commanders of Russian forces believe that, for example, the bombing of residential buildings will force Ukrainians to lay down their arms. We ask whether military attacks against civilians deter or, in contrast, motivate resistance against the attackers. Two-wave probability surveys were collected in Ukraine in March and April 2022 (Ns = 1,081 and 811, respectively). Preregistered analyses indicate that perceptions and experience of military attacks (victimization) did not decrease Ukrainians’ motivations to resist the invading forces. The analyses suggest that victimization positively relates to motivations to join military combat in defense positions. Military attacks against civilians are morally impermissible and prohibited under international humanitarian law. Our results suggest that such attacks are also counterproductive from a military perspective.

• Eklund, Lina; Theisen, Ole Magnus; Baumann, Matthias; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Kuemmerle, Tobias & Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard (2022). Societal drought vulnerability and the Syrian climate-conflict nexus are better explained by agriculture than meteorology. Communications Earth & Environment. 3(1). doi: 10.1038/s43247-022-00405-w. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Droughts are often suspected to increase the risk of violent conflict through agricultural production shocks, and existing studies often explore these links through meteorological proxies. In Syria, an alleged agricultural collapse caused by drought is assumed to have contributed to increased migration and the conflict outbreak in 2011. Here we use satellite derived cropland and climate data to study land use dynamics in relation to drought and conflict in Syria. We show that claims of an agricultural collapse cannot be substantiated as croplands saw a fast recovery after the 2007–2009 drought. Our study highlights the importance of considering land-use dynamics for understanding linkages between meteorological droughts, agricultural impacts, migration and conflict. Furthermore, our results suggest that the influential drought-migration-conflict narrative for Syria needs to be reexamined, with implications for wider discussions of how climate change might alter conflict risk.

• Vestby, Jonas; Brandsch, Jürgen; Landsverk, Peder; Larsen, Vilde Bergstad & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2022). Predicting (de-)Escalation of Sub-National Violence Using Gradient Boosting: Does It Work? International Interactions. ISSN 0305-0629. doi: 10.1080/03050629.2022.2021198. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Linke, Andrew & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2021). Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa. Global Environmental Change. ISSN 0959-3780. 67. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102237. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Østby, Gudrun; Shemyakina, Olga; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Urdal, Henrik & Verpoorten, Marijke (2021). Public Health and Armed Conflict: Immunization in Times of Systemic Disruptions. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 47(4), s. 1143–1177. doi: 10.1111/padr.12450. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kotsadam, Andreas; Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Urdal, Henrik (2018). Development aid and infant mortality. Micro-level evidence from Nigeria. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 105, s. 59–69. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.022. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  While there is a vast literature studying the effects of official development aid (ODA) on economic growth, there are far fewer comparative studies addressing how aid affects health outcomes. Furthermore, while much attention has been paid to country-level effects of aid, there is a clear knowledge gap in the literature when it comes to systematic studies of aid effectiveness below the country-level. Addressing this gap, we undertake what we believe is the first systematic attempt to study how ODA affects infant mortality at the subnational level. We match new geographic aid data from the AidData on the precise location, type, and time frame of bilateral and multilateral aid projects in Nigeria with available georeferenced survey data from five Nigerian Demographic and Health Surveys. Using quasi-experimental approaches, with mother fixed-effects, we are able to control for a vast number of unobserved factors that may otherwise be spuriously correlated with both infant mortality and ODA. The results indicate very clearly that geographical proximity to active aid projects reduces infant mortality. Moreover, aid contributes to reduce systematic inter-group, or horizontal, inequalities in a setting where such differences loom large. In particular, we find that aid more effectively reduces infant mortality in less privileged groups like children of Muslim women, and children living in rural, and in Muslim-dominated areas. Finally, there is evidence that aid projects are established in areas that on average have lower infant mortality than non-aid locations, suggesting that there are biases resulting in aid not necessarily reaching those populations in greatest need.

• Østby, Gudrun; Urdal, Henrik; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Kotsadam, Andreas; Belbo, Ragnhild & Ormhaug, Christin M. (2018). Organized violence and institutional child delivery: Micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1989–2014. Demography. ISSN 0070-3370. s. 1–22. doi: 10.1007/s13524-018-0685-4. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2018). Experienced poverty and local conflict violence. Conflict Management and Peace Science. ISSN 0738-8942. 37(3), s. 323–349. doi: 10.1177/0738894217741618. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Haugen, Heidi Østbø & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2017). Samfunnsgeografiske metoder. I Jordhus-Lier, David Christoffer & Stokke, Kristian (Red.), Samfunnsgeografi: En innføring. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. ISSN 9788202547752. s. 63–72. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Samfunnsgeografi er studiet av samfunnets romlighet. Som student i samfunnsgeografi utvikler du din geografiske forestillingsevne og blir i stand til å forstå betydningen av det geografiske i samfunnet rundt deg. Denne boka gir deg en innføring i fagets historie og kjernebegreper – som rom, sted, skala, territorium og nettverk – samt en gjennomgang av viktige underdisipliner og forskningstemaer som preger faget i dag. Kapitlene er skrevet på norsk av 24 samfunnsgeografer basert i Norge. Forfatterne bruker selv en samfunnsgeografisk tilnærming i sin egen forskning. Gjennom de ulike kapitlene lærer du blant annet mer om klimaendringer, globalisering og ulikhet, politisk deltagelse, byutvikling, migrasjon, fattigdom og utviklingsspørsmål.

• Wig, Tore & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2016). Local institutional quality and conflict violence in Africa. Political Geography. ISSN 0962-6298. 53, s. 30–42. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2016.01.003. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Buhaug, Halvard (2015). Insurgency and Inaccessibility. International Studies Review. ISSN 1521-9488. 17(1), s. 6–25. doi: 10.1111/misr.12202. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A widely held belief within policy and practice contends that rough terrain and other physical obstacles to power projection hinder public surveillance, lower counterinsurgency capability, and generally constitute an important facilitator of rebellion. Likewise, sociocultural exclusion and alienation from the core are widely assumed to increase latent conflict risk through their influence on identity formation and perception of collective grievances. However, there is no scientific consensus on the empirical strength or significance of such a relationship, and many quantitative studies fail to find a robust link between a country's geographical or ethno-demographic characteristics and its estimated conflict risk. This paper represents a first comprehensive evaluation of how physical and sociocultural inaccessibility relate to contemporary civil wars. Drawing on recent advances in geographic information systems and georeferenced indicators of terrain, settlement patterns, ethno-political status, and armed conflict, we put the purported causal relationship to empirical test. A statistical analysis of civil-conflict events across post-Cold War Africa gives considerable support to the proposed theoretical framework, revealing that the various dimensions of inaccessibility all exert significant and substantive effects on local conflict risk. We find weaker evidence for the notion of substitutability; the inaccessibility indicators largely retain their individual effects when included in the same regression model.

• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2013). PostGIS 2.0 og Raster. Kart og Plan. ISSN 0047-3278. 73(3), s. 159–164. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Strand, Håvard & Buhaug, Halvard (2012). PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 49(2), s. 363–374. doi: 10.1177/0022343311431287. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Contributions to the quantitative civil war literature increasingly rely on geo-referenced data and disaggregated research designs. While this is a welcome trend, it necessitates geographic information systems (GIS) skills and imposes new challenges for data collection and analysis. So far, solutions to these challenges differ between studies, obstructing direct comparison of findings and hampering replication and extension of earlier work. This article presents a standardized structure for storing, manipulating, and analyzing high-resolution spatial data. PRIO-GRID is a vector grid network with a resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 decimal degrees, covering all terrestrial areas of the world. Gridded data comprise inherently apolitical entities; the grid cells are fixed in time and space, they are insensitive to political boundaries and developments, and they are completely exogenous to likely features of interest, such as civil war outbreak, ethnic settlement patterns, extreme weather events, or the spatial distribution of wealth. Moreover, unlike other disaggregated approaches, gridded data may be scaled up or down in a consistent manner by varying the resolution of the grid. The released dataset comes with cell-specific information on a large selection of political, economic, demographic, environmental, and conflict variables for all years, 1946–2008. A simple descriptive data assessment of population density and economic activity is offered to demonstrate how PRIO-GRID may be applied in quantitative social science research.

• Buhaug, Halvard; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede; Holtermann, Helge; Østby, Gudrun & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2011). It's the Local Economy, Stupid! Geographic Wealth Dispersion and Conflict Outbreak Location. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 55(5), s. 814–840. doi: 10.1177/0022002711408011. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Income varies considerably within countries and the locations where conflicts emerge are rarely typical or representative for states at large. Yet, most research on conflict has only examined national income averages and neglected spatial variation. The authors argue that civil conflicts are more likely to erupt in areas with low absolute income, even if a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is not necessarily low, and in areas with large deviations from national averages. The authors test these hypotheses empirically using spatially disaggregated data on the location of conflict outbreaks and per capita income estimates. The authors find that areas with absolute poverty indeed see more outbreaks of conflict, and they find some evidence that inequality increases the risk of conflict. Subnational information can improve on conventional country-based measures and help our understanding of how local features and variation can give rise to mobilization and violence.

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Gerring, John; Apfeld, Brendan; Wig, Tore & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2022). The Deep Roots of Modern Democracy. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781009100373. 500 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gerring, John; Wig, Tore; Apfeld, Brendan & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2022). Deep Roots of Modern Democracy. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9781009115223. 480 s. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Jordhus-Lier, David (2026). Samfunnsgeografenes forskningsmetoder. doi: 10.23865/cdf.280. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I samfunnsgeografifaget er det sterke tradisjoner innenfor både kvantitative og kvalitative metoder. Mens kvantitative geografer bruker statistisk analyse for å trekke slutninger for et større utvalg enheter, vil kvalitative geografer undersøke meningsinnholdet i et mindre utvalg enheter. I tillegg har samfunnsgeografifaget spilt en viktig rolle i å utvikle metodetradisjoner rettet mot mer eksplisitt romlige datakilder, og da særlig geografiske informasjonssystemer (GIS) og romlig analyse.

• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Erdal, Marta Bivand (2023). Staying Rather than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2018). Hvor ble det av FN-styrkene? 3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Eggereide, Bård (2017). Analysis and assessment through the use of opinion survey. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2017). Norske bidrag i internasjonale operasjoner. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Belbo, Ragnhild; Østby, Gudrun; Urdal, Henrik; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Kotsadam, Andreas & Ormhaug, Christin M. (2015). Armed conflict and maternal health care Micro-level evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2011). Conflict Hot Spots: Emergence, Causes and Consequences. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 48(2), s. 262–262. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Haugseth, Eirin; Dyrstad, Karin & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2025). Displacement and discontent - Consequences of displacement on local host communities. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. ISSN 9788232688883. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Forced displacement is at record levels, with over 117 million people displaced worldwide. The majority of these populations are hosted in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While previous research has explored the economic impacts of displacement in LMICs, less is known about its political and social consequences for host communities, particularly in Africa. Displacement does not only affect public expenditure but is a politically salient issue that can alter social relations, which in some cases fuel social unrest. The impacts of displacement on such sociopolitical dynamics are underexplored in the academic literature, despite its importance for governance, stability and future crisis response, especially in regions already facing conflict, poverty and fragile institutions. This dissertation examines how displacement affects local host communities across three dimensions: political trust, social unrest and community coexistence. Using a mixed-methods approach, the thesis draws on geolocated data and subnational analyses of displacement, conflict and unrest across Africa, complemented by fieldwork in Uganda that captures community dynamics in settings of protracted displacement. Together, these studies provide a comprehensive and locally attuned understanding of how displacement reshapes political and social landscapes. The findings show that displacement can erode trust in local political institutions and increase the likelihood of unrest, particularly in urban centres where mobilisation is more feasible. However, these effects are not uniform. Displacement can also foster solidarity and resilience, especially where governance responses are inclusive and aid distribution is equitable. The dissertation provides theoretical and empirical insights on local consequences of displacement on African host communities, highlighting the interplay between opportunity structures and pre-existing grievances. By leveraging subnational variation, it advances methodological approaches and offers nuanced findings with direct relevance for policymakers and practitioners navigating the complex consequences of displacement. Sammendrag Med over 117 millioner mennesker på flukt på verdensbasis, er et rekordhøyt antall mennesker tvunget til å forlate områdene sine. Flertallet av mennesker på flukt befinner seg i lav- og mellominntektsland. Mens tidligere forskning har undersøkt de økonomiske konsekvensene av at mennesker blir fordrevet i disse landene, vet vi mindre om de politiske og sosiale konsekvensene for vertsbefolkningene, særlig i Afrika. Dette har økonomiske konsekvenser, men er også et politisk ladet tema som kan endre sosiale relasjoner og i noen tilfeller bidra til sosial uro. Slike fordrivingssituasjoner har potensielt stor betydning for politisk styring, stabilitet og krisehåndtering. Dette gjelder spesielt i områder som allerede er preget av konflikt, fattigdom og svake institusjoner. Denne avhandlingen undersøker hvordan fordrevne befolkningsgrupper påvirker lokale vertsbefolkninger langs tre dimensjoner: politisk tillit, sosial uro og fredelig sameksistens. Gjennom en kombinasjon av kvantitative og kvalitative metoder bruker studien geolokaliserte data og subnasjonale analyser på tvers av Afrika, supplert med feltarbeid i Uganda som gir innsikt i lokale dynamikker. Dermed gir avhandlingen en helhetlig og lokalt forankret forståelse av hvordan fordrevne befolkningsgrupper i samspill med vertsbefolkninger former politiske og sosiale landskap. Funnene viser at områder med tilstedeværelse av fordrevne grupper kan øke sannsynligheten for lavere tillit til lokale politiske institusjoner og føre til mer uro blant vertsbefolkningen, særlig i urbane områder hvor mobiliseringspotensialet er større. Disse effektene er imidlertid ikke ensartede. Befolkningsendringer kan også fremme solidaritet og motstandskraft, spesielt der myndighetenes respons er inkluderende og når fordelingen av bistand er rettferdig. Som helhet gir avhandlingen teoretiske og empiriske innsikter i lokale konsekvenser av å huse fordrevne grupper for afrikanske vertsbefolkninger, og framhever samspillet mellom mulighetsstrukturer og eksisterende misnøye. Ved å utnytte variasjon på subnasjonalt nivå, bidrar studien til metodisk utvikling og nyanserte funn med direkte relevans for beslutningstakere og humanitære aktører som navigerer de komplekse konsekvensene av mennesker som er fordrevet.

• Erdal, Marta Bivand; Mjelva, Mathilde Bålsrud & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2023). Conflict-related determinants of migration. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Skramstad, Laila; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Buhaug, Halvard (2023). Migrant Exposure and Individual-Level Trust: First Impressions from a Systematic Literature Review. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234304705. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Vestby, Jonas; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Buhaug, Halvard (2022). Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications. Institutt for fredsforskning. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nagel, Robert; Nordås, Ragnhild; Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2021). Children at Risk of Wartime Sexual Violence, 1990–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234300714. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  ​In 2019, approximately 72 million children were living in a conflict zone where one or more armed actors were reported to perpetrate sexual violence against children. By this metric of risk, we also find that the number of children at risk of wartime sexual violence has increased since the 1990s. This brief presents new subnational estimates of this risk to children for the period 1990–2019. The study this is based on was commissioned by Save the Children and generated by PRIO, based on a new update of the SVAC database.

• Stai, Nora Kristine; Rødningen, Ida; Olsson, Louise & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2021). Breaking Down Barriers for Norway’s Deployment of Military Women. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234301872. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Methi, Fredrik & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2020). Heating Up the Dry Debate: A Sensitivity Analysis of Drought and Communal Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa (1989-2014). Universitetet i Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Climate is getting hotter - both in fact and as a research topic. Yet there is little scientific consensus on the conflict potential carried by changes in climate and weather patterns. Previous studies investigating the links between drought and conflict have relied on precipitation-based measures of drought. However, in the same way that peace is not just the absence of war, drought is not just the absence of precipitation. What is needed is a greater focus on the relationship between the impacts of drought and conflict potential. In this thesis, I identify three contrasting drought indicators that are assumed to capture different theoretical concepts of drought: a precipitation-based measure (SPEI); a vegetation-based measure (NDVI); and a socio-economic measure (EM-DAT). These three measures are not only assumed to capture different theoretical concepts of drought, but also different stages in the drought cycle. Lack of precipitation may lead to less vegetation, loss of crops and deterioration of pasture, which in turn may spark a socio-economic disaster. By using these three measures, I answer the research question: Do different conceptualisations of drought affect the likelihood of communal conflict? Drawing on novel high-resolution data on communal conflict events and droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1989 to 2014, this thesis evaluates the relationship between drought and communal conflict on the local level. Results from mixed-effects multilevel logistic regression show that all three drought measures are associated with a higher risk of communal conflict, but the effect differs across the various measures. The higher the measurable physical impact of drought, or the closer we get to measuring the socio-economic impacts of the drought, the higher the risk of experiencing communal conflict.

• Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2020). Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2018. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234300691. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2020). Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234301636. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Gates, Scott (2019). The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS). Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272889943. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Østby, Gudrun; Urdal, Henrik; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Kotsadam, Andreas; Belbo, Ragnhild & Ormhaug, Christin M. (2018). How Does Organized Violence Affect the Chances of Giving Birth at a Health Facility? Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272888922. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Kotsadam, Andreas; Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Urdal, Henrik (2018). Does Aid Reduce Infant Mortality? Local-Level Evidence from Nigeria. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272888564. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Tollefsen, Andreas Forø (2018). Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2017. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272889134. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø & Gustavsen, Elin Marthinussen (2017). Norway and UN Peacekeeping Trends. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272888243. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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