The Puzzle of the Recent Fertility Decline

• Dommermuth, Lars; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde & Wiik, Kenneth Aarskaug (2025). Fertility Intentions Across Five Decades in Norway. Comparative population studies. ISSN 1869-8980. 50, p. 129–152. doi: 10.12765/cpos-2025-09. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Fertility intentions are strong predictors of future childbearing at both individual and aggregate levels, reflecting cultural norms and values around family formation and childbearing. Given the recent decline in fertility across Western industrialized societies, research on fertility intentions has become increasingly important. In particular, falling birth rates in the Nordic countries − traditionally held up as exemplars of modern family policies that balance work and parenthood − raise the question of whether women of childbearing age have experienced a shift in values related to family and childbearing. Using comparable survey data on Norwegian women aged 18 to 44 over five decades (1977, 1988, 2003, 2007, and 2020), we examine trends in fertility intentions. We consider short-term fertility intentions, defined as positive intentions to have a(nother) child within the next three to four years, as well as general fertility intentions, defined as positive intentions to have a(nother) child regardless of timing. We compare changes over the study period across demographic (age, parenthood, and partnership statuses) and socioeconomic (employment and education) groups. Our results reveal a gradual shift in short-term fertility intentions toward older age groups, reflecting changes in age-specific fertility rates and rising levels of childlessness. By 2020, both short-term and general fertility intentions had declined to their lowest levels over the study period − a trend that persisted even after controlling for key background characteristics. From 2007 to 2020, we observe a consistent decline in both types of fertility intentions across all sociodemographic groups. The decline in short-term fertility intentions began earlier among young women, childless women, women in education, and women without a co-residential partner − groups previously identified as experiencing sharper fertility declines after 2010 in the Nordic countries. The early and uniform downturn across key subgroups suggests that changing family values and life-course expectations may be driving the recent fertility decline.

• Wood, Jonas; Marynissen, Leen; Nisén, Jessica; Fallesen, Peter; Neels, Karel & Trimarchi, Alessandra [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2025). Regional differentiation in women’s educational gradients in fertility around the turn of the century: Urban-rural differences in northern and western Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. ISSN 1728-4414. 23(1), p. 1–26. doi: 10.1553/p-4cgn-nz7f. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Scholars agree that educational gradients in fertility vary by context, with indications of more positive educational gradients in northern and western Europe since the turn of the century. However, despite theoretical and empirical research on rural-urban differences in fertility, our understanding of subnational regional variation and urban-rural differences in the relationship between education and fertility remains limited. Utilising large-scale administrative data from seven countries (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden) at around the turn of the century, this study identifies substantial subnational regional differences in the association between female education on the one hand, and birth hazards or synthetic parity progression ratios on the other. With respect to urbanisation, we find that higher shares of foreign-born women in more urbanised populations are associated with more negative educational gradients in fertility. Hence, we present a first descriptive step towards the development of a research agenda to explain regional and urban-rural variation in educational gradients in fertility.

• Nisén, Jessica; Klüsener, Sebastian; Dahlberg, Johan; Dommermuth, Lars; Jasilioniene, Aiva & Kreyenfeld, Michaela [Show all 17 contributors for this article] (2025). Economic Conditions, Education and Parity‐Specific Fertility: A Sub‐National Regional Study Across 15 Countries in Europe. Population, Space and Place. ISSN 1544-8444. 31(6). doi: 10.1002/psp.70074. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  There is a longstanding interest in the link between economic conditions and fertility levels. Most research measuring economic development has focused on national‐level patterns and period total fertility levels. We aim to extend existing knowledge by carrying out a sub‐national regional analysis of the link between economic conditions and parity‐specific cohort fertility, while taking into account heterogeneity by educational level. We study three fertility outcomes by women's education: the share of women who remain childless, the mean number of children per mother and the mean number of children per woman. For this analysis, we harmonised register, census and large‐scale survey data from 15 European countries, with a focus on women born in the late 1960s. Women's fertility was measured at the end of their reproductive careers and combined with contextual information, including information on the regional GDP (per capita). In our multiple regression models that controlled for country‐level factors, we found that GDP was positively associated with childlessness among women with medium and high levels of education. However, GDP was negatively associated with the number of children per mother among women with low levels of education. These findings show that the relationship between economic conditions and fertility varies depending on the level of education of the women, and it differs between childlessness and continued childbearing. High‐income contexts may be less supportive of continued childbearing for women with lower levels of education.

• Ciganda, Daniel; Lorenti, Angelo & Dommermuth, Lars (2025). Microfoundations of the weakening educational gradient in fertility. Population Studies. ISSN 0032-4728. 79(1), p. 103–122. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2319031. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The disappearance of the social gradient in fertility represents a paradigm shift that has called into question the validity of theories that predicted a decline in fertility with increased access to education and resources. Emerging theories have tried to explain this trend by highlighting a potential change in the fertility preferences of more educated couples. In this paper we add additional elements to this explanation. Using a computational modelling approach, we show that it is still possible to simulate the weakening social gradient in fertility, in the context of steady declines in family size preferences. Our results show that one of the key drivers of the change in the education–fertility relationship can be found in the transition to an increasingly regulated fertility regime. As the share of unplanned births decreases over time, the negative association between education and fertility weakens and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with desired fertility become dominant.

• Hart, Rannveig Kaldager; Bergsvik, Janna; Fauske, Agnes & Kim, Wookun (2024). Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility. In Zimmermann, Klaus F. (Eds.), Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics. Springer. ISSN 9783319573656. p. 1–25. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_451-1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter reviews the literature on the causal effects of policies on fertility. It focuses on evidence from experiments and quasi-experiments in low fertility contexts, including studies from Europe, Northern America, Oceania, and Asia. Making no a priori restrictions on policy type, the review encompasses evaluations of parental leave, childcare, health insurance, and financial incentives such as child transfers. Childcare expansions increase completed fertility. Financial incentives had positive effects on fertility across contexts, both in the short and long run. Expansions of parental leave rights in Central Europe, and introduction of parental leave in the USA, also had positive effects. Distributional effects of these policies are very different, with parental leave compensation benefiting high-earning couples, while expansions of childcare programs have potential to reduce social inequalities. Publicly funded assisted reproduction can increase fertility for women over the age of 35.

• Lappegård, Trude; Kornstad, Tom; Dommermuth, Lars & Kristensen, Axel Peter (2023). Understanding the Positive Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Women's Fertility in Norway. Population and Development Review. ISSN 0098-7921. 0(0), p. 1–25. doi: 10.1111/padr.12539. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macrolevel have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on the fertility level in Norway, but women's fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020, as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women's fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economically and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women's work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic-related measures taken by the Norwegian government.

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• Hellstrand, Julia; Andersson, Linus; Dommermuth, Lars; Fallesen, Peter; Jónsson, Ari Klængur & Jalovaara, Marika [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2025). Growing divergences: a research note forecasting ultimate childlessness by education in the Nordic countries. MPIDR Working Paper. 2025(29). doi: 10.4054/mpidr-wp-2025-029. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Recent period trends in the Nordic countries show rapid declines in first births, particularly among lower-educated men and women. This study translates these period changes into cohort patterns and analyzes observed and forecasted ultimate childlessness by education for men and women born 1970–1987/88 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden using register-based data. We apply three forecasting methods: freeze rates, five-year extrapolation, and a nonparametric approach based on historical first-birth probabilities. Results reveal the steepest increases in ultimate childlessness among the lowest educated, approaching as high as 40% among low-educated women and 50% among low-educated men in some of the countries. Among the higher tertiary educated, childlessness is overall lower and remains relatively stable. By contrast, men with lower tertiary education show notable increases in childlessness, in some cases reaching levels similar to or higher than those of upper-secondary-educated men. While overall childlessness in Denmark remains stable, it exhibits the fastest widening educational gap. These findings underscore a growing educational polarization in the transition to parenthood across the Nordic societies, with women’s childlessness patterns increasingly resembling those of men—a marked shift in the region’s fertility landscape.

• Johansen, John Inge & Dommermuth, Lars (2024). Om barnefødsler. [TV]. NRK. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

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• Johansen, John Inge & Dommermuth, Lars (2024). Det fødes færre barn, men nedgangen har bremset opp. Nå tror SSB bunnen kan være nådd. [Internet]. NRK. Full text in Research Archive
• Dommermuth, Lars; Lyngstad, Torkild Hovde & Wiik, Kenneth Aarskaug (2023). Fertility intentions in certain and uncertain times: The case of Norway. Full text in Research Archive

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