Annica Allvin

• Allvin, Annica & Skardhamar, Torbjørn (2026). Stably Unstable? – Testing the Temporal Stability of Spatial Crime Patterns | Journal of Quantitative Criminology | Springer Nature Link. Journal of quantitative criminology. ISSN 0748-4518. doi: 10.1007/s10940-026-09691-5. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Criminological research has long suggested that microgeographical crime patterns are remarkably stable over time; however, there is little consensus on how stability should be defined or measured. This study investigates the stability of spatial crime patterns in Oslo, Norway, over two decades. We review definitions and operationalizations of spatial stability and test three central hypotheses. Using 20 years of police-registered crime data, we apply K-means longitudinal clustering to examine crime trends at a 100 × 100 m grid-cell level. We expand upon prior research by explicitly analysing within-cluster variation, conducting separate analyses by crime type, and testing robustness to changes in temporal resolution. We also demonstrate an alternative method using predefined criteria and compare the results. Although cluster-averages or -medians suggest spatial stability, we observe substantial variation within all clusters, suggesting places are easily interpreted to be more stable than they are. Whether most places exhibit low and stable crime trends, or whether chronic hot spots exist in Oslo, depends on the operationalization of stability. The degree of within-cluster variation casts doubts on whether conventional clustering approaches alone provide convincing evidence of persistent patterns, without closer scrutiny. Spatial stability may be overstated when inferred from cluster models relying on annual data. These crime patterns in Oslo are better understood as stably unstable, reflecting patterned variability rather than fixed persistence. Substantial local variation complicates interpretations of long-term stability. We argue for more careful operationalizations of spatial stability, closer attention to within-cluster variation, and greater consideration of temporary hot spots.

• Allvin, Annica; Gerell, Anders Emanuel Manne & Skardhamar, Torbjørn (2024). Vulnerable Areas in Oslo – Toward “Swedish Conditions”? Nordic Journal of Urban Studies. 4(2), p. 1–20. doi: 10.18261/njus.4.2.1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In the past decade, Sweden has experienced a large increase in gang violence, strongly linked to what is termed “vulnerable areas.” This has sparked concerns about vulnerable areas across the Nordic countries. A recurring public debate is how to prevent the occurrence of “Swedish conditions” and their implications for gang violence, and, more broadly, ethnic segregation. As a result, there has been an increased emphasis on analyzing the spatial separation of different social groups and geographical crime patterns. The Danish government annually publishes a list of vulnerable neighborhoods; in 2022, the list included 17 neighborhoods. Similarly, the Swedish police release a biannual list of vulnerable areas, with the most recent edition containing 61 areas. There are differences in how vulnerable areas are defined and identified between and within these countries. Currently, Norway lacks a national strategy for identifying vulnerable areas, but the City of Oslo and the Oslo police department have recently adopted similar approaches. In this study, we use methods applied in Denmark (Danish Government, 2022a) and Sweden (Guldåker et al., 2021) to identify vulnerable areas in Norway. By doing so, we identify the differences that exist between the two methods. As discussions regarding vulnerable areas often revolve around crime prevention, we also analyze differences in crime levels among the identified areas within Oslo municipality. This will further build on our understanding about the relationship between crime and vulnerability. We discuss the inclusion of reported crime and ethnicity as predictors of vulnerable areas, and how this might lead to misdirected (criminal) policy measures. We observe there is lower residential segregation in Norway – while it does not suffer from Swedish (or Danish) conditions, other studies have shown an increase in urban segregation in Norway, and it remains important to prevent further increases to avoid negative development of social problems, including crime.

• Gerell, Anders Emanuel Manne; Allvin, Annica; Frith, Michael James & Skardhamar, Torbjørn (2022). COVID-19 restrictions, pub closures, and crime in Oslo, Norway. Nordic Journal of Criminology. ISSN 2578-983X. 23(2), p. 136–155. doi: 10.1080/2578983X.2022.2100966. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Alcohol consumption and crime are closely linked and there is often more crime near pubs and bars. Few studies have considered the impact of restricting access to pubs or bars on crime, and the present study aims to provide more insight into this by using the restrictions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. In Oslo, Norway, alcohol serving was banned twice during 2020, and at other times during the year, restrictions were placed on how late it could be served. In the present paper, these restrictions are analysed, alongside more general COVID-19 restrictions, to assess their association with crime. To identify these, we employ negative binomial regression models of daily crime counts for nine types of crime adjusted for the day of the week, the week of the year, and the year itself. This is in addition to the presence, or absence, of alcohol-related restrictions and more general COVID-19 restrictions. The findings suggest that both, general restrictions and bans on serving alcohol, reduced crime, although not universally across all crime types and times of the day. When pubs are ordered not to sell alcohol after midnight there appears to be an unexpected increase in crime.

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• Gerell, Anders Emanuel Manne; Allvin, Annica; Skardhamar, Torbjørn & Andersen, Bengt (2024). Vi har ikke svenske tilstander i Norge. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica (2024). Debatten. [TV]. NRK. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Kan penger gjenopprette tilliten til politiet? Folk skytes gjennom vinduer, og naboer tør ikke ringe politiet. Vil regjeringens løfter om mer penger få bukt med voldsproblemene?

• Allvin, Annica (2023). 17.30 Debatt (episode 114). [TV]. TV2. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica (2023). URIX - Den kurdiske reven. [TV]. NRK URIX. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica (2023). Nyhetsmorgen 08.30 (episode 77). [TV]. TV2. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica (2023). Do we really need spatial crime analysis in Norway? [Journal]. NSfK Criminology Blog. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica (2020). Bør jeg virkelig velge akademia? Full text in Research Archive
• Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh; Hoel-Holt, Andreas Stranden; Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Allvin, Annica & Ellingsen, Dag (2026). Politiets tjenesteproduksjon. En undersøkelse av effektiviteten i politidistriktenes oppgaveløsning. Vista Analyse AS. doi: https:/vista-analyse.no/no/publikasjoner/politiets-tjenesteproduksjon-en-undersokelse-av-effektiviteten-i-politidistriktenes-oppgavelosning/. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh; Hoel-Holt, Andreas Stranden; Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Allvin, Annica & Ellingsen, Dag (2026). Kostnadsvariasjoner i politiet. En undersøkelse av effektiviteten i politidistriktenes produksjonsinnsats. Vista Analyse AS. doi: https:/vista-analyse.no/no/publikasjoner/kostnadsvariasjoner-i-politiet-en-undersokelse-av-effektiviteten-i-politidistriktenes-produksjonsinnsats/. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh; Hoel-Holt, Andreas Stranden; Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Allvin, Annica & Ellingsen, Dag (2026). Tilrettelegging for effektivitetsmåling i politisektoren. Teknisk rapport om data og metodikk. Vista Analyse AS. doi: https:/vista-analyse.no/no/publikasjoner/tilrettelegging-for-effektivitetsmaling-i-politisektoren-teknisk-rapport-om-data-og-metodikk/. Full text in Research Archive
• Holmen, Rasmus Bøgh; Hoel-Holt, Andreas Stranden; Rødseth, Kenneth Løvold; Kittelsen, Sverre A.C.; Allvin, Annica & Ellingsen, Dag (2026). Effektiviteten i politiet. Oversiktsrapport om sektorens effektivitetsutvikling. Vista Analyse AS. doi: https:/vista-analyse.no/no/publikasjoner/effektiviteten-i-politiet-oversiktsrapport-om-sektorens-effektivitetsutvikling/. Full text in Research Archive
• Allvin, Annica & Søderholm, Tara (2023). Barne- og ungdomskriminalitet i Oslo 2022 – Utfordringer i ulike geografiske områder. Oslo politidistrikt. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28738.56007. Full text in Research Archive
• Larsson, Paul; Eriksen, Tove; Pedersen, Celine & Allvin, Annica (2022). Langsiktige trender i kriminalitetsbildet: Vurderinger av metoder for beskrivelse av fremtidig kriminalitetsutvikling. Politihøgskolen. ISSN 9788278081785. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne rapporten er utarbeidet på oppdrag gitt fra Justis- og beredskapsdepartementet (JD) til Politi høgskolen (PHS). Hensikten er at rapporten skal være sentral i arbeidet med langtidsplanlegging i politietaten, og skal kunne benyttes som utgangspunkt for både politiske prioriteringer og strategisk planlegging. Basert på samfunnsvitenskapelig forskning skal rapporten oppsummere faktorer som direkte og indirekte kan forklare utviklingen i ungdomskriminalitet og organisert kriminalitet de siste tiårene. Videre skal rapporten vurdere trusselvurderinger og foresight som verktøy for å beskrive fremtidige utviklingstrekk i kriminalitetsbildet (se fullstendig sammendrag i rapporten).

• Allvin, Annica (2019). Crime concentration in Oslo - an explorative analysis of the spatial distribution of burglary and vehicle theft. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The last decades we have seen a large preventive move in western policing with a use of place-based policing. In Norway too, greater pressure has been put on the police force to prevent and reduce crime at places – but to execute this work successfully, any actor would require knowledge about if, where and why crime cluster at certain locations. This thesis analyses the spatial concentration and distribution of commercial- and residential burglaries and motor vehicle theft in Oslo, Norway using quantitative methods, including GIS-technology. Drawing on central theoretical perspectives and previous empirical work in the field of environmental criminology it aims at investigating to what degree these crimes are spatially concentrated at a relatively small number of places in the city of Oslo, what characterize these hot spots, and what environmental characteristics highlighted in previous research seem to generate the crimes. The analysis shows crime is an opportunistic by-product of routine activities in people’s lives, and that risk and effort are important factors in offenders’ contextual calculation about whether commit crime. This gives a strong implication of crime prevention through securitization by altering or controlling physical environments, or peoples’ perceptions of these. Environmental criminology thus brings great potential for this “new” police task of crime prevention. Yet, although spatial concentration is found for all crimes a main finding is some are not concentrated as tightly as expected from central assumptions in this field, such as the application of the 80/20 rule to crimes ecological concentration and the following “law of crime concentration at places”. Therefore, these should not be taken at face value in future research or policy discussions and we need more contextual information of crimes spatial distribution in Norway to most efficiently reduce or prevent crime at hot spots.

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