About the project
In a series of studies, Karl H. Teigen and his collaborators (including Wibecke Brun, University of Bergen, Magne Jørgensen, Simula Research Laboratories, Gideon Keren, Tilburg University, Marie Juanchich, Univ. of Toulouse and Kingston, UK) have investigated how people assess uncertain events, how they are communicated with numeric probabilities, confidence intervals, and verbal uncertainty phrases, and how these estimates are perceived by recipients.
Full text available in Norwegian
Publications
Teigen, K. H. & Brun, W. (2003). Verbal expressions of probability and uncertainty. In D. Hardman & L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment, and decision making (pp. 125-145). Chichester: Wiley.
Teigen, K. H. (2004). Judgments by representativeness. In R. F. Pohl (Ed.), Cognitive illusions: Fallacies and biases in thinking, judgment, and memory (pp. 165-182). Hove: Psychology Press.
Keren, G. & Teigen, K. H. (2004). Yet another look at the heuristics and biases approach. In D. J. Koehler & N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (pp. 89-109). Oxford: Blackwell.
Teigen, K. H. & Jørgensen, M. (2005). When 90% confidence intervals are only 50% certain: On the credibility of credible intervals. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19, 455-475.
Teigen, K. H. (2005). The proximity heuristic in judgments of accident probabilities. British Journal of Psychology, 96, 423-440.
Teigen, K. H., Halberg, A. M. & Fostervold, K. I. (2007). Single-limit interval estimates as reference points. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 21, 383-406.
Teigen, K. H., Halberg, A. M. & Fostervold, K. I. (2007). More than, less than, or between: How upper and lower bounds determine subjective interval estimates. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 20, 179-201.
Teigen, K. H. & Keren, G. (2007). Waiting for the bus: When base rates refuse to be neglected. Cognition, 103, 337-357.
Teigen, K. H. (2008). More than X is a lot: Pragmatic implicatures of one-sided intervals.
Social Cognition, 26, 379-400.
Halberg, A.-M. & Teigen, K. H. (2009). Framing of imprecise quantities: When are lower interval bounds preferred to upper bounds? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, 490-509.
Halberg, A.-M., Teigen, K. H., & Fostervold, K. I. (2009). Maximum vs. minimum values: Preferences of speakers and listeners for upper and lower limit estimates. Acta Psychologica, 132, 228-239.
Juanchich, M., Teigen, K. H. & Villejoubert, G. (2010). Is guilt ‘likely’ or ‘not certain’? Contrast with previous probabilities determines choice of terms. Acta Psychologica, 135, 267-277. doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2010.04.016
Keren, G. & Teigen, K. H. (2010). Decision by coin toss: Inappropriate but fair. Judgment and Decision Making, 5, 83-101.
Halkjelsvik, T. B., Jørgensen, M., & Teigen, K. H. (in press). To read two pages, I need 5 min, but give me 5 min and I will read four: How to change productivity estimates by inverting the question. Applied Cognitive Psychology. DOI: 10.1002/acp.1693.
Teigen, K. H. & Filkuková, P. (2011). Can > will: Predictions of what can happen are extreme, but believed to be probable. Manuscript submitted for publication (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making).