About the project
STOCKSHIFT explores the resilience of Arctic and Antarctic marine-resource management institutions to large-scale spatial shifts of major marine stocks in the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Southern Ocean. Climate change and other environmental factors are currently causing variability in the spatial distribution of fish stocks in Polar waters. In the Barents Sea, cod is expanding northeastwards, while in the Norwegian Sea significant changes in abundance, distribution and migration patterns can be observed in pelagic species such as mackerel. In the Southern Ocean, the combined effect of increasing temperatures with associated declines in sea ice, ocean acidification and changes in circulation is likely to affect the geographical distribution of krill.
These developments put established management regimes under pressure. In this truly interdisciplinary research endeavour, world-leading marine biologists, international lawyers and political scientists join efforts to study the resilience of Arctic and Antarctic marine resource management institutions to large-scale shifts of major marine stocks.
- How is climate change affecting distributional shifts of Polar fish stocks - are there any general patterns of movement, adaptability and recruitment?
- To what extent do shifts in migratory patterns influence the fit between the spatial scope of existing national and international management regimes and the fishing activities they seek to govern - and how will they influence the effectiveness of the regimes?
- How does continued effectiveness require adaptation within the complexes of institutions that co-govern commercial activities in Polar marine ecosystems?
Based on case studies from the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Southern Ocean, a meta-analysis will be performed to synthesize the overall impact of climate, fisheries and species interaction. Finally, the project will explore how comparative case study analysis and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be combined to examine cross-regime responses to plausible ecosystem development trajectories.
News
Progress report 2017
Climate change and other environmental factors are currently causing variability in the spatial distribution of fish stocks in the Barents Sea, the Norwegian Sea, and the Southern Ocean and this project asks three main questions:
- How is climate change affecting distributional shifts of Polar fish stocks - are there any general patterns of movement, adaptability and recruitment?
- To what extent do shifts in migratory patterns influence the fit between the spatial scope of existing national and international management regimes and the fishing activities they seek to govern - and how will they influence the effectiveness of the regimes?
- How does continued effectiveness require adaptation within the complexes of institutions that co-govern commercial activities in Polar marine ecosystems?
In addressing the first question on distributional shifts, the project has contributed to the development and launch of BarMar (Barents Sea Marine Atlas), a mapping database client for oceanographic data, marine survey data and data from commercial fish catches, in combination with data on temperatures and salinity. Elements of this database is now available on the Institute of Marine Research webpage. The project will couple this database with knowledge about existing and potential spawning grounds, drift models, and swimming capacity to investigate fish stock life cycle changes that can be juxtaposed with the jurisdictional boundaries of national and international management institutions.
Three findings are reportable concerning the second question on the adequacy of existing governance systems for coping with the challenges that climate-induced stock shifts pose for the main management tasks – provision of scientific advice, agreement on regulations reflective of the state of knowledge, and compliance control. Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen has addressed provision of scientific advice by conducting field work and 18 semi-structured interviews with scientists and officials involved in the management of North East Atlantic mackerel, whose growth in biomass and spatial distribution has triggered severe international regulatory challenges. Four major issues are identified: The dominant role of the statistical model with inadequate use of biological competence; lack of a geographic component in the advice provided; inadequate independence in some cases between researchers on the one hand and either industry or government on the other; and the low degree of acceptance of the advice on the part of managers which can be interpreted as indicating low legitimacy.
On the regulatory side of management, E.J. Molenaar has examined how issues of participation and allocation of fishing opportunities are being handled within regional fisheries management organizations (RFMOs). Such practices are of crucial importance for the performance, credibility and legitimacy of international fisheries. The pattern is clear: Participation is dominated by regional coastal States and some key distant water fishing States. Moreover, only minimal allocations are made available to new entrants. Accordingly, while climate-induced changes to the distribution and abundance of fish stocks necessitate adjustments to allocations of fishing opportunities, the global component of international fisheries law can provide very little guidance in this regard, substantively as well as procedurally.
On the compliance task, Olav Schram Stokke has examined fisheries management in the European Arctic and finds it better equipped than in the past to obtain acceptable levels of adherence to agreed regulations because the relevant institutional complex has grown. Responding to the near-monopoly on regulation and enforcement that flag states have on the high seas, coastal states and other players have developed supplementary measures, targeting links in the seafood value chain that are either prior to harvesting (e.g. liability insurance, bunkering) or subsequent to it (e.g. transhipment, landing, processing or distribution). Those measures have proven helpful also to management of fisheries conducted in exclusive economic zones.
Project work aiming to respond to the third question on the needs for adaptation of governance systems include that by Oran R. Young. Drawing on a series of case studies in Polar regions and beyond, he concludes that the rising complexity (i.e., cross-issue connectivity, nonlinear and noncyclical patterns of change, and surprising system effects) now facing environmental governance implies that familiar regulatory strategies must be complemented by governance instruments more capable of adaptation to changing circumstances. The broader repertory needed includes what he calls Type I governance, devising supplementary practices to augment rather than to replace regulatory measures in managing volatile oscillations, as well as Type II governance, devising new means for governance during periods of transformation and in the settings that become the new normal following major state change.
Publications
Peer-reviewed journal articles
Oran R. Young, "Beyond Regulation: Innovative Strategies for Governing Large Complex Systems," Sustainability, 9 (2017)
Books, chapters or reports
E.J. Molenaar, J. Spencer and J.J. Maguire, Report of the 2nd Independent Performance Review of ICCAT (ICCAT: 2016)
E.J. Molenaar, Cross-border cooperation in Maritime Spatial Planning, commissioned by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, May 2017
User-oriented presentations
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Forvaltning av fiskebestander i endring, Havforskningsinstituttet, Bergen Torsdagskollokvie i faggruppe Oseanografi og klima
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Scientific advice in Norwegian Arctic fisheries management: National and transboundary stocks. Korea-Norway Arctic Science Cooperation Seminar: Science, policy and cooperation. Hosted by the Royal Norwegian Embassy and Korea Polar Research Institute. A part of Arctic Partnership Week 2016
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Snøkrabbestriden i Barentshavet, Håndverkeren, Oslo Rådsmøte i Nei til EU, 05.03.2017
Moen, Endre, “BarMar – that’s the Barents Sea Marine Data Atlas!”, FOSS4G-NOR (Free Open Source Software for Geoinformatics NORGE), Oslo, Norge, 31 aug 2017
Olav Schram Stokke, Fra kunnskap til handling, Arktis slik vi kjenner det – en saga blott? Miljødirektoratet, 15.06.2017
Academic or wider-public presentations
Anne Maria Eikeset, Green Growth based on Marine Resources, Oslo Life Science 2016: Health, environment and innovation, 15-17.02.2017
Anne Maria Eikeset, Connecting-the-Arctic: Arctic coasts and seas under global change: Insights from ecology, evolution, sociology, anthropology, economics and political science, Seminar-series on interdisciplinary work on the Arctic at UiO (“Se mot nord”). Connecting-the-Arctic: Arctic coasts and seas under global change (presenting the project). 28.4.2017
E.J. Molenaar, Participation and Allocation in RFMOs, workshop 'Strengthening International Fisheries Law in an Era of Changing Oceans', Utrecht, 7-8 February 2017
E.J. Molenaar, Access to High Seas Fisheries, workshop 'Common sense and juridical answers to arising problems due to changes in fish species distribution', Tromsø, 15 February 2017
E.J. Molenaar, The Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Negotiations, Joint NILOS/UCWOSL - JCLOS Workshop on Current Developments in the Law of the Sea, Utrecht, 31 May 2017
E.J. Molenaar, The Five-plus-Five Process on High Seas Fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean, workshop “Natural Marine Resource Management in a Changing Climate”, Tromsø, 13-14 June 2017
Geir Hønneland, MSC Certification of Southern Ocean Fisheries, Shanghai Law and Politics in the Arctic Symposium, Jiao Tong-universitetet , 21.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Resilience of fisheries advice in the Norwegian Sea, MARE Conference 2017 People & the Sea IX: Dealing with Maritime Mobilities, Amsterdam, 06.07.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen,Kampen om fisken: Norges nye klimakonflikter, CICEROs klimamaraton på Arendalsuka, 15.08.2017
Nils Chr. Stenseth,The Nansen LEGACY: The story about the new Norwegian polar research ship and polar research initiative, Fairbanks, 28.09.2017,
Non-peer reviewed publications (e.g., pamphlets, hearings, op-eds, other media appearances)
Anne Maria Eikeset, TV-interviewed about evolution and ecology, climate change, ecosystem adaptation and human impact. Shown at the National TV-channel, NRK1
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Nationen (papir) EU krev krabbefiske 23.01.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Fiskeribladet Fiskaren, Norge lar seg ikke presse av EU 25.01.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Finnmark.no, Retten avviste millionbot til litauere for krabbefiske i smutthullet: -Kan gi Norge et stort problem 25.01.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Norge kan tape snøkrabbestriden, NRK Ytring 31.01.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Aftenposten Norge og EU krangler om krabbefangst. Egentlig handler det om Svalbardtraktaten 02.02.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Dag og Tid, Krabbeslaget om Barentshavet, 03.02.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Dagsnytt 18, NRK (TV og radio) Snøkrabbe-krangel mellom EU og Norge 08.02.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i France Culture (radio). Arctique. En marge de la conférence Arctic Frontiers, les ressources halieutiques dans le Grand Nord 29.02.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Hakai Magazine Svalbard’s Snow Crabs: a Pincered Proxy for Arctic Oil 12.04.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i NRK Finnmark (radio) Snøkrabbefiske i retten 04.05.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Politico Europe Oil lurks beneath EU-Norway snow crab clash 18.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Uhyre spennende og prinsipiell dom, Fiskeribladet Fiskaren 22.6.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Dagsavisen Latvisk krabbefartøy dømt etter ulovlig fangst 22.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen I Finnmark.no Opphever frifinnelsen av litauisk snøkrabbefisker: – Viser at Norge har kontroll over egen sokkel 01.07.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Fiskeribladet Fiskaren EUs snøkrabbekrav truer norske oljeinteresser 22.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Fiskeribladet Fiskaren Kaptein og rederi dømt for ulovlig fiske i Svalbardsonen 22.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen i Fiskeribladet Fiskaren Forsker: Uforståelig krabbekvote 26.06.2017
Harald Sakarias Brøvig Hansen, Verdenshavenes framtid avgjøres nå, Fiskeribladet Fiskaren 12.09.2016
Olav Schram Stokke, France Culture (radio). Arctique. En marge de la conférence Arctic Frontiers, les ressources halieutiques dans le Grand Nord 29.02.2017
Olav Schram Stokke, Villedende om Russland og sjømatnæringens gullalder, Klassekampen, 17.9.2017
