Håvard Strand

• Williams, Jonathan P.; Hermansen, Gudmund Horn; Strand, Håvard; Clayton, Govinda & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2024). BAYESIAN HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS FOR LATENT VARIABLE LABELING ASSIGNMENTS IN CONFLICT RESEARCH: APPLICATION TO THE ROLE CEASEFIRES PLAY IN CONFLICT DYNAMICS. Annals of Applied Statistics. ISSN 1932-6157. 18(3), p. 2034–2061. doi: 10.1214/23-AOAS1869. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A crucial challenge for solving problems in conflict research is in leveraging the semisupervised nature of the data that arise. Observed response data, such as counts of battle deaths over time, indicate latent processes of interest, such as intensity and duration of conflicts, but defining and labeling instances of these unobserved processes requires nuance and imprecision. The availability of such labels, however, would make it possible to study the effect of intervention-related predictors—such as ceasefires—directly on conflict dynamics (e.g., latent intensity) rather than through an intermediate proxy, like observed counts of battle deaths. Motivated by this problem and the new availability of the ETH-PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefires data set, we propose a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) hidden Markov model (HMM) framework as a sufficiently flexible machine learning approach for semisupervised regime labeling with uncertainty quantification. We motivate our approach by illustrating the way it can be used to study the role that ceasefires play in shaping conflict dynamics. This ceasefires data set is the first systematic and globally comprehensive data on ceasefires, and our work is the first to analyze this new data and to explore the effect of ceasefires on conflict dynamics in a comprehensive and cross-country manner.

• Clayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Wiehler, Claudia & Sagård, Tora [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2022). Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 67(7-8), p. 1430–1451. doi: 10.1177/00220027221129183. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, purpose, coverage, and end date of the ceasefire. The CF data provide an empirical basis to assess the conditions that give rise to ceasefires, how ceasefires affect the dynamics of conflict, and the role of a ceasefire in the peace process. This article presents the rationale underlying the data collection, the coding rules and procedures, and how this data can be used for analysis.

• Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2022). Patterns of Democracy over Space and Time. International Studies Quarterly. ISSN 0020-8833. 66(3). doi: 10.1093/isq/sqac041. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Unidimensional measures of democracy fail to account for the complex and varied nature of political systems. This article disaggregates the concept of democracy and proposes a multidimensional conceptualization to account for this variation in institutional configurations. Three theoretically informed dimensions are featured: participation, electoral contestation, and constraints on the executive. The three dimensions constitute a cube covering all regime types, in which we place countries using V-Dem data from 1789 to 2019. This cube of democracy patterns reveals several interesting observations. We trace historical patterns of democratization and discuss how countries across the world have taken different paths at different times. Our conceptualization shows that political systems with a similar score along a unidimensional scale are often quite distinct. In addition, across the globe for 200 years, certain configurations of political institutions rarely occur. Furthermore, our approach reveals interesting patterns of regime convergence and divergence over time. Finally, we show that the typical pathways to democracy have changed since 1789. This multidimensional conceptualization ultimately opens up new avenues for research in which institutional variation and change can be studied in greater detail.

• Clayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Strand, Håvard (2022). Ceasefires in Civil Conflict: A Research Agenda. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 67(7-8), p. 1279–1295. doi: 10.1177/00220027221128300. Full text in Research Archive
• Clayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas & Strand, Håvard (2022). Costs and Cover: Explaining the Onset of Ceasefires in Civil Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 67(7-8), p. 1296–1324. doi: 10.1177/00220027221129195. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ceasefires are common in civil conflict. Yet we have surprisingly little comparative analysis of why and under what conditions they occur. A ceasefire provides temporary relief from the costs of conflict, but also generates its own costs. Building on this logic, we argue that conflict parties are more likely to accept the costs associated with a ceasefire when the conflict costs are greater, in particular, when: violence is intense; there are higher levels of ‘collateral damage’; and the parties lack international support. Second, we contend that ceasefires are also more likely in those periods in which the audience costs associated with entering into an arrangement are lower, specifically, when the parties have some form of ‘political cover’, such as during mediation. We find support for both arguments in an analysis of a new dataset capturing all ceasefire in civil conflict from 1989-2020, using a series of dyad fixed effect models.

• Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2020). Safety and Security. In Schmieding, Felix (Eds.), Handbook on Governance Statistics. Praia Group on Governance Statistics. p. 189–220. Full text in Research Archive
• Theisen, Ole Magnus; Strand, Håvard & Østby, Gudrun (2020). Ethno-political favouritism in maternal health care service delivery: Micro-level evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, 1981–2014. International Area Studies Review. ISSN 2233-8659. 23(1), p. 3–27. doi: 10.1177/2233865919895862. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  It is commonly held that political leaders favour people of the same ethnic origin. We test this argument of ethno-political favouritism by studying variations in the usage of maternal health care services across groups in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). More specifically, we link geo-referenced individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on 601,311 births by 399,908 mothers in 31 countries during the period 1981–2014 with data on the settlement of ethnic groups and their political status. Our results indicate that women benefit from the shift that brings co-ethnics into power, increasing the probability of receiving maternal health care services. The effect strengthens with increased competitiveness around elections. We advance the current literature in four important ways. Firstly, we undertake the first analysis that utilizes shifts in ethno-political status for the same individual, effectively eliminating competing time-invariant explanations to that of shifts in ethno-political status. Secondly, since SSA governments often incorporate multiple groups, we test the effect of patronage on being co-ethnic with cabinet members in general, and not only the president. Thirdly, health services constitute the public good most desired by citizens of SSA. Our measure captures a vital health service that is highly desired across groups. An increase in usage likely reflects genuine trickle-down effects of having co-ethnics in power, a crucial ingredient in building popular support for ethnic patrons. Fourthly, we show that electoral competition is an important conditioner of ethno-political favouritism.

• Strand, Håvard; Urdal, Henrik & Côté, Isabelle M. (2018). Ethnic Census-Taking, Instability, and Armed Conflict. In Côté, Isabelle M.; Mitchell, Matthew I. & Toft, Monica (Ed.), People Changing Places: New Perspectives on Demography, Migration, Conflict, and the State. Routledge. ISSN 9780815360766. doi: 10.4324/9781351117623-4. Full text in Research Archive
• Hillesund, Solveig; Barrett, Gray; Bahgat, Karim; Dupuy, Kendra; Gates, Scott & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2018). Horizontal inequality and armed conflict: a comprehensive literature review. Revue canadienne d'études du développement. ISSN 0225-5189. p. 1–19. doi: 10.1080/02255189.2018.1517641. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Investigation of whether, how, and why inequality influences the dynamics of violent conflict has a long intellectual history. Inequality between individuals and households (vertical inequality) has dominated the literature, but recently attention has shifted to the role of group-based inequalities in triggering violence. Our review of research on the relationship between conflict mobilisation and violence, and “horizontal inequality” (inequalities based on group identities such as ethnicity, region, and religion) reveals solid support for the argument that high levels of horizontal economic and political inequalities among the relatively deprived make violent conflict more likely.

• Strand, Håvard & Buhaug, Halvard (2018). Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline? In Backer, David; Bhavnani, Ravinder & Huth, Paul (Ed.), Peace and Conflict 2017. Routledge. ISSN 9781857439328. p. 16–22. doi: 10.4324/9781351211666-3. Full text in Research Archive
• Strøm, Kaare; Gates, Scott; Graham, Ben & Strand, Håvard (2017). Inclusion, dispersion, and constraint: powersharing in the world's states, 1975-2010. British Journal of Political Science. ISSN 0007-1234. 47(1), p. 165–185. doi: 10.1017/S0007123415000174. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Political powersharing arrangements serve three purposes: to give all relevant groups access to the most important political decisions; to partition the policy process, thereby granting groups autonomy in their own homeland and on issues of special concern; and to constrain political power-holders from abusing their authority at the expense of any group. We introduce a new global dataset on a broad range of political powersharing institutions, 1975-2010. As posited theoretically, we show that political powersharing statistically disaggregate into three component types: inclusive, dispersive, and constraining institutions. Existing literature associates powersharing with democracy as well as with civil conflict resolution. We find differences between the types of political powersharing institutions correlated with electoral democracy and those prevalent in post-conflict states. Inclusive powersharing institutions are common in post-conflict states but least strongly associated with electoral democracy. Conversely, constraining institutions, which are comparatively rare in states with current or recent civil conflicts, are highly correlated with electoral democracy.

• Skarstad, Kjersti & Strand, Håvard (2016). Do human rights violations increase the risk of civil war? International Area Studies Review. ISSN 2233-8659. 19(2), p. 107–130. doi: 10.1177/2233865916629567. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard & Buhaug, Halvard (2016). Armed Conflict, 1946–2014. In Backer, David; Bhavnani, Ravinder & Huth, Paul (Ed.), Peace and Conflict 2016. Routledge. ISSN 9781857438291. p. 19–24. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2016). Development Consequences of Armed Conflict. In Montclos, Marc-Antoine Pérouse de; Minor, Elizabeth & Sinha, Samrat (Ed.), Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting for the Dead. Springer. ISSN 9783319120355. p. 25–45. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.031. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott; Graham, Ben; Lupu, Yonatan; Strand, Håvard & Strøm, Kaare (2016). Power sharing, protection, and peace. Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816. 78(2), p. 512–526. doi: 10.1086/684366. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2014). Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups? International Area Studies Review. ISSN 2233-8659. 17(2), p. 167–183. doi: 10.1177/2233865914537055. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Nordkvelle, Jonas & Strand, Håvard (2014). Peace research - Just the study of war? Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 51(2), p. 145–158. doi: 10.1177/0022343313514074. Full text in Research Archive
• Hegre, Håvard; Karlsen, Joakim; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2013). Predicting armed conflict, 2010-2050. International Studies Quarterly. ISSN 0020-8833. 57(2), p. 250–270. doi: 10.1111/isqu.12007. Full text in Research Archive
• Østby, Gudrun; Strand, Håvard; Nordås, Ragnhild & Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2013). Gender gap or gender bias in peace research? Publication patterns and citation rates for Journal of Peace Research, 1983-2008. International Studies Perspectives. ISSN 1528-3577. 14(4), p. 493–506. doi: 10.1111/insp.12025. Full text in Research Archive
• Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Strand, Håvard & Buhaug, Halvard (2012). PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 49(2), p. 363–374. doi: 10.1177/0022343311431287. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Contributions to the quantitative civil war literature increasingly rely on geo-referenced data and disaggregated research designs. While this is a welcome trend, it necessitates geographic information systems (GIS) skills and imposes new challenges for data collection and analysis. So far, solutions to these challenges differ between studies, obstructing direct comparison of findings and hampering replication and extension of earlier work. This article presents a standardized structure for storing, manipulating, and analyzing high-resolution spatial data. PRIO-GRID is a vector grid network with a resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 decimal degrees, covering all terrestrial areas of the world. Gridded data comprise inherently apolitical entities; the grid cells are fixed in time and space, they are insensitive to political boundaries and developments, and they are completely exogenous to likely features of interest, such as civil war outbreak, ethnic settlement patterns, extreme weather events, or the spatial distribution of wealth. Moreover, unlike other disaggregated approaches, gridded data may be scaled up or down in a consistent manner by varying the resolution of the grid. The released dataset comes with cell-specific information on a large selection of political, economic, demographic, environmental, and conflict variables for all years, 1946–2008. A simple descriptive data assessment of population density and economic activity is offered to demonstrate how PRIO-GRID may be applied in quantitative social science research.

• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2012). Development Consequences of Armed Conflict. World Development. ISSN 0305-750X. 40(9), p. 1713–1722. doi: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.031. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper conducts the first analysis of the effect of armed conflict on progress in meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. We also examine the effect of conflict on economic growth. Conflict has clear detrimental effects on the reduction of poverty and hunger, on primary education, on the reduction of child mortality, and on access to potable water. A medium-sized conflict with 2500 battle deaths is estimated to increase undernourishment an additional 3.3%, reduce life expectancy by about 1 year, increases infant mortality by 10%, and deprives an additional 1.8% of the population from access to potable water.

• Østby, Gudrun; Urdal, Henrik; Tadjoeddin, Muhamma Zulfan; Murshed, S. Mansoob & Strand, Håvard (2011). Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003. Journal of Development Studies. ISSN 0022-0388. 47(3), p. 377–398. doi: 10.1080/00220388.2010.506911. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard (2011). Deconstructing Civil War: A Rejoinder. Security Dialogue. ISSN 0967-0106. 42(3), p. 297–302. doi: 10.1177/0967010611407106. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Hegre, Håvard & Strand, Håvard (2009). Democracy and civil war. In Midlarsky, Manus I. (Eds.), Handbook of war studies III : the intrastate dimension. University of Michigan Press. ISSN 9780472050574. p. 155–192. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Strand, Håvard (2008). Military intervention, democratization, and post-conflict political stablity. In Øberg, Magnus & Strøm, Kaare (Ed.), Resources, Governance and Civil Conflict. Routledge. ISSN 9780415416719. p. 147–162. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2006). Institutional inconsistency and political instability: Polity duration, 1800-2000. American Journal of Political Science (AJPS). ISSN 0092-5853. 50(4), p. 893–908. Full text in Research Archive
• Sørli, Mirjam; Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Strand, Håvard (2005). Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East. Journal of Conflict Resolution. ISSN 0022-0027. 49(1), p. 141–165. Full text in Research Archive
• Rasch, Bjørn Erik & Strand, Håvard (2005). "Terrorens demokratiparadoks". In Rasch, Bjørn Erik (Eds.), Islamistisk terrorisme. Abstrakt forlag. ISSN 9788279351795. p. 217–238. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Et sentralt tema i kapitlet er, foruten å gi et bilde av omfanget av internasjonal terrorisme de siste tiårene, å belyse forholdet mellom styreformer og terrorisme. Det er vanskelig å tenke seg at islamistisk terrorisme kan bekjempes uten at demokratiske styreformer får bedre fotfeste i den delen av verden som opplever mest politisk vold. Samtidig kan det å åpne opp den politiske prosessen i de landene det gjelder, på kort sikt lett få som konsekvens at terroren øker heller enn avtar. Det er nettopp land som befinner seg i en overgangsfase, eller hvor sentrale statsinstitusjoner av andre grunner er svake, at grobunnen for terrorgrupper synes å være best.

• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Metelits, Claire & Strand, Håvard (2003). Posting Your Data: Will You Be Scooped or Will You Be Famous? International Studies Perspectives. ISSN 1528-3577. 4(1), p. 72–79. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Metelits, Claire & Strand, Håvard (2003). Posting Your Data: Will You Be Scooped or Will You Be Famous? International Studies Perspectives. ISSN 1528-3577. 4(1), p. 72–107. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Wallensteen, Peter; Strand, Håvard; Sollenberg, Margareta & Eriksson, Mikael (2002). Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. 39(5), p. 615–637. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Strand, Håvard; Dyvesether, Natalie M.; Gates, Scott & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2019). The Effect of Armed Conflict on Sustainable Development Goals. Full text in Research Archive
• Boese, Vanessa Alexandra; Gates, Scott; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Strand, Håvard (2019). Patterns of authority over space and time. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Strand, Håvard & Nordkvelle, Jonas (2014). Posting your data: Will you remain famous? Full text in Research Archive
• Tønnesson, Stein & Strand, Håvard (2012). Forsvar for et fordømt århundre (kronikk). Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. Full text in Research Archive
• Buhaug, Halvard; Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2009). Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever. European Political Science. ISSN 1680-4333. 8(1), p. 79–89. doi: 10.1057/eps.2008.54. Full text in Research Archive
• Buhaug, Halvard; Gates, Scott G.; Hegre, Håvard; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2009). Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever. European Political Science. ISSN 1680-4333. 8(1), p. 79–89. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Hegre, Håvard & Strand, Håvard (2006). Democracy and Civil Violence. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard; Sørli, Mirjam & Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2005). Hva er det med Midtøsten? Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier. ISSN 1503-5727. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Moses, Jonathon; Strand, Håvard; Jo, Jung-In & Vik, Jostein (2004). Mini-Skirts, Hula-Hoops and Exchange Rate Regimes: Information Cascades across Central Banks. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2004). The Escalation Process from Political Instability to War. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Strand, Håvard (2004). Modeling the Duration of Civil Wars: Measurement and Estimation Issues. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2004). Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800-2000. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Strand, Håvard & Jones, Mark (2004). The Systemic Causes of Democratization: Interstate War and Democratic Waves. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2004). Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Strand, Håvard (2004). Modeling the Duration of Civil Wars: Measurement and Estimation Issues. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey & Strand, Håvard (2004). Military Intervention, Democratization, and Post-conflict Political Stability. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott G.; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P. & Strand, Håvard (2003). Democratic Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800-2000. Full text in Research Archive
• Moses, Jonathon; Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Vik, Jostein & Strand, Håvard (2003). Mini-Skirts, Hula-Hoops and Exchange Rate Regimes: Information Cascades across Central Banks. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2003). Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800-1998. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark & Strand, Håvard (2003). Democratic Waves? War, New States, and Global Patterns of Democratization, 1800-1998. Full text in Research Archive
• Urdal, Henrik & Strand, Håvard (2003). Verden fredeligere - men ikke Afrika. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Strand, Håvard & Metelits, Claire (2002). Replication in International Journals. Full text in Research Archive
• Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Strand, Håvard; Eriksson, Mikael; Sollenberg, Margareta & Wallensteen, Peter (2001). Armed Conflict 1946-99: A New Dataset. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott G.; Hegre, Håvard; Jones, Mark P. & Strand, Håvard (2000). Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Persistence and Change in Political Systems Revisited, 1800-1998. Full text in Research Archive
• Drange, Bård; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin; Jensenius, Francesca Refsum; Strand, Håvard & Krause, Jana (2023). Colombia’s relentless pursuit of justice: Wartime abuses, dynamics of violence, and justice outcomes. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard & Hegre, Håvard (2021). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234302053. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Hegre, Håvard (2020). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788234301698. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Urdal, Henrik & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2019). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2018. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272889929. Full text in Research Archive
• Palik, Julia; Strand, Håvard; Clayton, Govinda; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas (2019). Yemen, Ceasefire Project Country Report. Institutt for fredsforskning. Full text in Research Archive
• Strand, Håvard; Velldal, Erik & Landsverk, Peder (2019). Partial automation of the data-collection process. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Ryland, Reidun; Sagård, Tora; Landsverk, Peder; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard & Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2018). The Effects of Ceasefires in Philippine Peace Processes. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272889332. Full text in Research Archive
• Bahgat, Karim; Dupuy, Kendra; Østby, Gudrun; Rustad, Siri Camilla Aas; Strand, Håvard & Wig, Tore (2018). Children Affected by Armed Conflict, 1990–2016. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272888540. Full text in Research Archive
• Bahgat, Karim; Barrett, Gray; Dupuy, Kendra; Gates, Scott; Hillesund, Solveig & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2017). Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272887918. Full text in Research Archive
• Dupuy, Kendra; Gates, Scott; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Rudolfsen, Ida; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2016). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272887697. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Strand, Håvard & Urdal, Henrik (2016). Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). ISSN 9788272886560. Full text in Research Archive
• Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2014). Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ​​The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that conflict has been an important impediment to achieving these goals.

• Dahl, Marianne; Gates, Scott Geoffrey; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2014). Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security fo rces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. How the security forces react is intimately linked to the tactics employed by civil society.

• Gates, Scott G.; Hegre, Håvard; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Strand, Håvard (2010). Consequences of Civil Conflict. Background paper to World Development Report 2011. The World Bank. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper reviews the literature on the development consequences of internal armed conflict and state fragility and analyzes the relationship using data from World Development Indicators, UCDP/PRIO Armed Conict Data, and World Bank state fragility assessments. Our main focus is on a set of development indicators that capture seven of the Millenium Development Goals, but we also look briefly into the effect of conflict and fragility on growth, human rights abuses, and democratization. We analyze these relationships using a variety of methods - averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator over the time frame for which we have data; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. The analyses leave no doubt that conflict, fragility and poor development outcomes are closely related - these problems largely occur in the same set of developing countries, most of which are located in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Acknowledging the diffculty of analyzing the effect of conflict on a set of indicators that we know are also causally related to the onset of conflict, we still conclude that conflict and fragility at least exacerbate these pre-existing conditions. Conflict and fragility are indeed major obstacles to development for several indicators.

• Strand, Håvard; Karlsen, Joakim; Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Hegre, Håvard; Ormhaug, Christin & Wilhelmsen, Lars (2005). Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook Version 3-2005. CSCW/UACD. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA