Key points
- Today’s EU order was built to promote rules-based openness and sound background economic management. Now it faces major economic, geopolitical and environmental pressures to develop more active capacities and resources.
- What is the most plausible pathway to a deal for increased resources and capacities? Major past reforms in the EU institutions have usually been led by the “Franco-German engine,” but France is at an impasse.
- Evolving policy views in Germany and other northern European countries (Netherlands, Nordics), together with their relatively low debt, make a northern-coalition-led initiative the most plausible option.
- A more active and interventionist EU order presents challenges and opportunities for Norway, but overall, a northern-led EU that adapts to challenges would be in Norway’s interest.
Full info
ARENA Policy Brief 3/2026 (pdf)
The Path to a New European Economic Order (and Norway’s Place in It)
March 2026