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Speaker: Amy Woolf, Independent Consultant & Scowcroft National Security Senior Fellow
Discussant: Dr. James Cameron, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow/Assistant Professor, Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo
Abstract:
The United States and Soviet Union (and later the Russian Federation) have pursued arms control to strengthen stability and manage their nuclear competition, while adjusting the size of their nuclear stockpiles to capture changes in the security environment. Between 1972 and 2010, they signed eight legally-binding agreements that limited their numbers of deployed nuclear weapons. They have also adopted transparency, communications, and confidence-building measures to reduce the risk that misunderstandings about routine events or accidents could lead to escalation.
In recent years, the United States and Russia have been unable to agree on an agenda for arms control negotiations and may not have enough time to complete a new treaty before New START expires in 2026. In the absence of a formal treaty, the two sides might, instead, focus on measures that will maintain open lines of communications and implement other confidence-building measures that could both build trust during peacetime and mitigate the risk of conflict during crises. This approach may seem inadequate to the task of reducing nuclear dangers and eventually eliminating nuclear weapons. but an agenda that focuses on risk reduction may, nonetheless, create opportunities for the two nations to address and resolve security concerns that raise the risk of nuclear confrontation in the current security environment.
Speaker bio:
Amy F. Woolf is a consultant specializing in nuclear weapons and arms control policy. She serves as the Scowcroft National Security Senior Fellow, Institute for National Security Studies, U.S. Air Force Academy. Previously, she served as a specialist in nuclear weapons policy at the Congressional Research Service of the US Library of Congress for more than thirty years. Before joining Congressional Research Service, Woolf was a member of the research staff at the Institute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, Virginia. She also spent a year at the US Department of Defense, working on the 1994 Nuclear Posture Review. Woolf received a master’s degree in public policy from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a BA in political science from Stanford University.
Acknowledgements: The Oslo Nuclear Project extends its gratitude to the Alva Myrdal Center, Uppsala University, for sponsoring the paper and allowing the ONP to share it with seminar participants.