To sign up for this online event, please register here. All participants will receive a Zoom invitation in advance.
Abstract
The discussion will be based on Mark Bell and Fabian Hoffmann's recent contribution to Foreign Affairs, titled "Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma: The Difficult and Dangerous Options for Post-American Deterrence".
In the article, Bell and Hoffmann argue that for Europe to assume responsibility for its own security is not simply a matter of generating more political will, higher defense budgets, or better coordinated procurement processes. Europe must navigate a strategic trilemma regarding its nuclear options.
European leaders have three goals they would like to achieve: credible and effective deterrence against Russia; strategic stability, understood as lower incentives for any state to be the first to use a nuclear weapon; and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons to new states. Unfortunately, Europe cannot achieve them all. In fact, choosing any two makes the third impossible. If Europe chooses strategic stability and nonproliferation, it may not be able to deter Russia. But to fortify its nuclear posture enough for credible deterrence, Europe must either allow new states to acquire the weapons or sacrifice a degree of strategic stability.
None of the available choices are ideal. But in the absence of protection from across the Atlantic, Europe would be best served by choosing nonproliferation and credible deterrence. Accepting a level of strategic instability in European-Russian relations requires assuming genuine nuclear risks. The alternatives, however, would be even more dangerous.
Speaker bios
Prof. Mark Bell:
Mark Bell is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. His research examines issues relating to nuclear weapons and proliferation, international relations theory, and US and British foreign policy.
His first book, Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear-Armed States Behave, examines how states change their foreign policies when they acquire nuclear weapons, was published in 2021 by Cornell University Press and won the International Studies Association Foreign Policy Analysis Section's best book award. Other work has been published in journals including International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Texas National Security Review. His policy oriented work has been published by Foreign Affairs, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Quarterly. His work been funded by organizations including the Stanton Foundation, the US Air Force Academy and Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Charles Koch Foundation, and the Tobin Project.
He holds a Ph.D in Political Science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a Masters in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, where he was a Frank Knox Memorial Fellow, and a B.A. in Politics, Philosophy, and Economics from St. Anne's College, Oxford University.
Fabian Hoffmann:
Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, specializing in missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His PhD research explores the strategic-level effects of conventional long-range strike weapons, analyzing their implications for conventional and nuclear deterrence.
He has published widely on these topics, including in academic journals, scientific reports, and op-eds for newspapers and magazines.
He is regularly invited to contribute his expertise to national and international news media, appearing both in print and on television. Among others, his commentary has been featured on CNN, New York Times, Financial Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Economist, Foreign Affairs, BBC, ABC Australia, The Telegraph, Le Monde, Der Spiegel, Zeit, FAZ, Süddeutsche Zeitung, ARD, ZDF, and SRF.