Falling Fertility and Rising Social Inequalities

• Lappegård, Trude; Kristensen, Axel Peter; Dommermuth, Lars; Minello, Alessandra & Vignoli, Daniele (2022). The impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions in Norway. Journal of Marriage and Family. ISSN 0022-2445. 84(2), p. 476–493. doi: 10.1111/jomf.12822. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Objective This study examines the effect of exposure to different economic narratives of the future on fertility intentions of Norwegian couples. Background Fertility patterns should not only be interpreted in relation to economic uncertainty conceptualized as objective constraints. One should also consider that subjective narratives of economic uncertainty may have a significant role in fertility decision-making. Method Data were collected from a controlled laboratory experiment of both partners in heterosexual couples in fall 2019 in Oslo, Norway (N = 838). The participants were randomly assigned to read either a negative or a positive future economic scenario, while a control group was not assigned to any scenario. Results The economic scenarios influenced couples' fertility intentions, with the negative scenario causing a clear decrease in fertility intentions and the positive scenario causing an increase in fertility intentions. Men and women responded in similar ways to the scenarios. The effect of exposure to the scenarios is not moderated by objective measures such as couple employment status and income, except in one case. Conclusion Our experimental setting demonstrates that people's fertility intentions are shaped by their subjective view of the future economic situation.

• Lappegård, Trude (2020). Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. ISSN 1728-4414. 18(2020), p. 1–6. doi: 10.1553/populationyearbook2020.deb04. Full text in Research Archive
• Comolli, Chiara Ludovica; Neyer, Gerda; Andersson, Gunnar; Dommermuth, Lars; Fallesen, Peter & Jalovaara, Marika [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. doi: 10.1007/s10680-020-09570-0. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  During the 2010s, fertility rates fell across the Nordic region. The onset of these declines seems linked to the Great Recession of 2008–2009, but their continuation cannot easily be linked to subsequent economic change. The 1990s, too, brought episodes of economic crises to the Nordic region that were followed by different degrees of fertility decline. In this study, we provide an empirical overview of parity-, age- and education-specific fertility developments in the five Nordic countries in the wake of the economic recessions in 2008 and the early 1990s, respectively. We demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in fertility developments across countries after 1990, whereas after 2008, the trends are much more similar across the five countries. Likewise, the educational differences in birth hazards that characterized the developments after 1990 were much smaller in the initial years after 2008–2009. This reversal from heterogeneity to homogeneity in the fertility response to recessions calls for an expansion of theories on the cyclicality of fertility in relation to uncertainty and economic and social change. In our discussion, we consider the role of a set of factors that also incorporates the state, crisis management, and perceptions of economic and welfare uncertainty.

• Lappegård, Trude & Kornstad, Tom (2020). Social norms about father involvement and women's fertility. Social Forces. ISSN 0037-7732. 99(1), p. 398–423. doi: 10.1093/sf/soz124.
• Duvander, Ann-Zofie; Lappegård, Trude & Johansson, Mats (2020). Impact of a reform towards shared parental leave on continued fertility in Norway and Sweden. Population: Research and Policy Review. ISSN 0167-5923. 39(6), p. 1205–1229. doi: 10.1007/s11113-020-09574-y. Full text in Research Archive
• Nisén, Jessica; Klüsener, Sebastian; Dahlberg, Johan; Dommermuth, Lars; Jasilioniene, Aiva & Kreyenfeld, Michaela [Show all 17 contributors for this article] (2020). Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe. European Journal of Population. ISSN 0168-6577. p. 1–33. doi: 10.1007/s10680-020-09562-0. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.

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• Lappegård, Trude; Kornstad, Tom; Dommermuth, Lars & Kristensen, Axel Peter (2022). Hvorfor gikk fødselstallene opp under covid-19-pandemien? Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). ISSN 0804-3116. 08.05.2022. Show summary

  Hvorfor gikk fødselstallene opp under covid-19-pandemien? I 2021 har vi sett en økning i fødselstallene for første gang på 12 år. Økningen er for liten til at vi kan kalle det en «babyboom», og et samlet fruktbarhetstall på 1,55 er fortsatt historisk lavt. Men i motsetning til de aller fleste andre vestlige land hadde COVID-19-pandemien en positiv effekt på fødselstallene i Norge. Da vi gikk inn i pandemien, ventet vi en betydelig nedgang i fødselstallene. Vi argumenterte for at en slik nedgang i hovedsak ville komme som en reaksjon på den forventede økonomiske krisen i kjølvannet av nedstengningen og restriksjonene forårsaket av koronapandemien. Dette skjedde ikke. For å få mer kunnskap om hva som forklarer økningen i fødselstallene under pandemien, har vi i en ny studie undersøkt effektene av covid-19-pandemien på fødselstallene til ulike grupper av kvinner. Vi sammenlignet antall barn som ble unnfanget i perioden før nedstengingen 12. mars 2020, og antall barn som ble unnfanget i de åtte første månedene av pandemien. Pandemien rammet ulike deler av arbeidsmarkedet svært ulikt. Noen bransjer var hardt rammet av nedstengningen og restriksjonene knyttet til smitteverntiltak. Samtidig vet vi fra tidligere forskning at jobb og økonomisk trygghet er viktige forutsetninger når folk får barn. Mange ble permitterte eller arbeidsledige under pandemien. De opplevde dermed større økonomisk usikkerhet knyttet til hvorvidt de ville kunne forsørge seg selv og sin familie. Man vil derfor kunne ha ventet at det var store forskjeller i effekten av pandemien på fødselstallene mellom kvinner som jobber i ulike bransjer. Men bare blant kvinner i to sektorer finner vi en særskilt effekt av pandemien på fødselstall. For kvinner i servicesektoren ‒ som ble spesielt hardt rammet av restriksjonene ‒ fant vi en negativ effekt av pandemien på fødselstallene. Disse kvinnene fikk noe færre barn under pandemien enn de ellers ville gjort. Servicesektoren består hovedsakelig av unge kvinner og menn. Mange er i midlertidige og deltidsstillinger. I denne sektoren får kvinner også vanligvis færre barn. I motsetning til servicesektoren fant vi imidlertid en positiv pandemieffekt for kvinner som jobber i offentlig administrasjon. Der økte antall fødsler under pandemien. Dette er en del av offentlig sektor, hvor jobber lettere kunne utføres via hjemmekontor under nedstengningen. I Norge har de økonomiske kompensasjonsordningene på grunn av pandemien vært sjenerøse. De negative økonomiske konsekvensene har vært betydelig mindre enn mange fryktet. Dette bidrar til å forklare hvorfor pandemien ikke hadde en negativ effekt på fødselstallene i Norge. Det forklarer imidlertid ikke hvorfor pandemien har hatt en positiv effekt på fødselstallene og at de gikk opp i 2021. Studien vår viser ellers at den positive effekten av pandemien på fødselstallene i hovedsak var drevet av kvinner som allerede har barn. De befinner seg i aldersgruppen 28–35 år. Dette er kvinner i livsfaser hvor fødselstallene i utgangspunktet er høye. For dem som var i en økonomisk trygg situasjon – spesielt blant dem som allerede hadde planer om å få et barn til – kunne det å få barn under pandemien være gunstig. Mens mange mødre altså ser ut til å ha funnet det gunstig å utvide sin familie under pandemien, har det ikke vært en økning i antall kvinner som blir mødre for første gang. Utsettelse av førstefødsler er en av de viktigste driverne bak nedgangen i fødselstallene i Norge siden 2010. Det er forventet at mange av disse utsatte fødslene på et tidspunkt vil bli realisert. Vi finner imidlertid ingen slik opphenting av førstefødsler under pandemien, og i 2021 økte alderen for når kvinner får sitt første barn ytterligere. Mye tyder altså på at de mekanismene som gjør at mange unge kvinner i Norge venter med å få barn, ikke har endret seg under pandemien.

• Lappegård, Trude; Kornstad, Tom; Dommermuth, Lars & Kristensen, Axel Peter (2022). Understanding the positive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s fertility in Norway. SSB - Discussion papers. ISSN 0809-733X. 2022(978). Show summary

  This study examines the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility in Norway at the individual level. Studies using data at the macro level have found a positive short-term effect of the pandemic on fertility level in Norway, but women’s fertility response to the pandemic may differ depending on their life situation. We use the first lockdown on March 12, 2020 as a marker of the pandemic and apply a regression discontinuity design to compare births of women that were conceived before the pandemic started with those conceived during the first eight months of the pandemic. The positive effect on women’s fertility in Norway was mainly driven by women in life phases that have generally high fertility rates (women aged 28–35 years and women who already have children). These groups are likely to be in an economic and socially secure and stable situation in which the restrictions due to the pandemic had limited influence. Besides two exceptions, we do not find differences in the effect of the pandemic on childbearing by women’s work situation. This is most likely related to the strong welfare state and the generous additional pandemic-related measures taken by the Norwegian government.

• Dommermuth, Lars & Lappegård, Trude (2021). The Generations and Gender Survey 2020 in Norway. Show summary

  This is the third webinar of the GGP-Connect series. The webinar was held on the 25th of May at 13h00 (Amsterdam time). Lars Dommermuth (Statistics Norway) and Trude Lappegard (University of Oslo) talked about the GGS data collection in Norway. A unique aspect of the data collection is that it was completed using web-only. Moreover, the survey includes specific module on uncertainty in order to study the declining fertility visible in Nordic countries. The speakers provided some insights on the survey methodology and the lessons learnt.​

• Lappegård, Trude; Dommermuth, Lars & Kristensen, Axel Peter (2021). Føde flest mulig? Tida for høye fødselstall er over. Målet bør ikke være at det fødes flest mulig barn, men at alle kan få de barna de ønsker seg. Dagsavisen. ISSN 1503-2892. 23.03.2021.
• Dommermuth, Lars & Lappegård, Trude (2021). The Norwegian Generations and Gender Survey, Round 2 - Wave 1 (2020). Documentation of the data collection process. Technical working paper. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute.. Show summary

  In September 2020, Statistics Norway (SSB) (represented by the Research department of Statistics Norway) and the Central-hub of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP) (represented by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute at the Royal Netherland Academy of Arts and Science (NIDI-KNAW)) agreed on to conduct a data collection of the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) in Norway. In a service agreement between SSB and GGP, SSB was defined as the data provider, especially responsible to develop a sampling methodology and sample design for the survey in accordance with GGP technical guidelines and for sample management activities including the construction and maintenance of the sample. GGP was defined as the central coordinator, providing support in the pre-fieldwork phase, during the fieldwork and monitoring the fieldwork, as well as to provide data cleaning and checking (harmonization) and dissemination services of the collected data.

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