Our latest publications

• Klausen, Jan Erling; Mortensen, Peter Bjerre; Serritzlev, Søren & Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). The Geography of Local Politics: How Jurisdiction Size Shapes Local Policy Agendas. Journal of Public Policy. ISSN 0143-814X. Full text in Research Archive
• Breeman, Gerard; Cavari, Amnon; Jungblut, Jens; Shpaizman, Ilana; Timmermans, Arco & Valgermo, Jon Bøe (2026). Policy Agendas in Coalition Agreements: The Enduring Influence of Policy Inheritance. Policy Studies Journal (PSJ). ISSN 0190-292X. 54(4). doi: 10.1111/psj.70169. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  New governments frequently inherit issues from their predecessors, and as a result, various policy problems tend to remain on the agenda for many years. Previous research examining the role of policy inheritance has focused mainly on the agenda during a government's term in office. These studies find that because governments must first contend with the problems they inherit, there is considerably less room for new issues to emerge on the agenda. This study seeks to examine the idea of policy inheritance through the lens of coalition agreements. Coalition agreements, a feature of multiparty governments, are drafted shortly after elections and reflect the outcome of the political struggle. For this reason, one can expect that coalition agreements contain mostly issues that parties regard as important. By implication, changes in the coalition agreements' issue agenda would be a function of the political change produced by the electoral cycle, rather than of inheritance. Analyzing coalition agreements in three countries—Israel, the Netherlands, and Norway—across 42 elections, we find no evidence for this assumption. Agendas in coalition agreements do not vary with changes in the party composition of the coalition, changes in the ideological distance between parties, or changes in the party holding the office of Prime Minister. This indicates that even when new coalition governments are preparing for their term in office, inheritance remains the primary driver of agenda‐setting.

• Wilhelm, Marie-Thérèse & Miró, Joan (2026). When the Recovery and Resilience Facility hits home: EU crisis governance and recentralisation in federal and quasi-federal member states. Journal of European Integration. ISSN 0703-6337. doi: 10.1080/07036337.2026.2736768. Full text in Research Archive
• Chen, Liu; Christensen, Tom & Zhu, Xufeng (2026). Balancing Particularism and Universalism in Welfare Policy: Insights From China's Hukou Reform. Policy Studies Journal (PSJ). ISSN 0190-292X. 54(4). doi: 10.1111/psj.70160. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Welfare policies often combine particularistic and universalistic elements, yet we know less about how shifts in this balance shape public attitudes toward vulnerable low‐status groups. This article develops a three‐dimensional framework for analyzing welfare policy, distinguishing among welfare scope, welfare benefits, and inclusion criteria. We argue that public attitudes toward lower‐status groups are shaped by the combined signal about the welfare deservingness hierarchy generated by the configuration of particularistic and universalistic elements across these dimensions. Because policy design packages convey a broader normative stance about who belongs and who deserves, they can influence perceptions of groups that are not directly targeted by a policy change, lowering or raising their perceived deservingness. Using difference‐in‐differences and regression discontinuity methods, we analyze Weibo posts during China's two‐round hukou reform. We find that shifts toward more particularistic policy configurations lead to more negative attitudes toward low‐skilled migrant workers, whereas shifts toward more universalistic configurations yield more positive attitudes. Subgroup analyses yield suggestive patterns across local economic contexts and individual characteristics. These findings have broader implications for research on welfare policy systems and for reform efforts regarding social integration.

• Tian, Xiaolong; Christensen, Tom & Ma, Liang (2026). Public sector reform and party dominance: China’s 2023 Party-state institutional reform. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Administration. ISSN 2327-6665. p. 1–21. doi: 10.1080/23276665.2026.2701728. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In 2023, China launched a new round of Party – state institutionalreform that further consolidated Party dominance. This article ana-lyzes the reform’s underlying dynamics and the reconfiguration ofParty leadership within the administrative system. The findings sug-gest that the reform represents a nationally driven, adaptive institu-tional project aligned with Chinese modernisation. In response tointernal and external pressures, it advances a “new national system”and institutionalises a Party-dominated networked governance struc-ture linking the Communist Party of China Central Committee’sdecision-making bodies with the State Council’s functional depart-ments. Culturally, the reform embodies continuity and change,grounded in Confucian and Marxist-Leninist conceptions of govern-ance and democracy. From a polity perspective, Party dominance isfurther institutionalised through administrative restructuring. Overall,the reform reflects China’s effort to develop an autonomous govern-ance knowledge system and a Party-state governance model centredon Party leadership. The study contributes to public administrationscholarship by providing an empirically grounded interpretation ofinstitutional reform in a non-Western context

• Li, Hongxia; Chen, Sicheng; Yao, Rongrong & Christensen, Tom (2026). Managing emergencies and shaping images: how swift crisis interventions affect public perception of local government reputation. Public Management Review. ISSN 1471-9037. doi: 10.1080/14719037.2025.2610360. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study examines how crisis response timing (pre-crisis vs. post-crisis), sequence (no prioritization, defensive prioritization, accommodative prioritization), and tempo (fast-paced vs. slow-paced) affect public perception of local government reputation. Through a 2 × 3 × 2 factorial experiment (n = 1520), results reveal that pre-crisis risk communication, accommodative prioritization, and fast-paced responses significantly enhance public perception of local government reputation. Crisis responsibility attribution functions as an indirect mechanism. Integrating temporal dimensions into crisis management frameworks, the research advances theoretical understanding and offers governments actionable strategies for reputation protection through timely interventions

• Buba, Imrana (2026). Civilian compliance and victimization in the Boko Haram insurgency. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. doi: 10.1093/jopres/xjag077. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  How does variation in civilian compliance strategies shape wartime victimization? Across civil wars, some contested communities are displaced while others remain in place despite exposure to armed actors. Existing research explains civilian victimization primarily through armed actors' strategies, with limited attention to how civilians shape its form. I argue that civilian compliance, defined as accommodating the demands of armed actors without formally joining them, is a self-protection strategy that can reduce immediate danger but shifts civilians' exposure toward different forms of victimization. Drawing on fieldwork and a subnational comparison of two contested communities in northeastern Nigeria, I show that variation in civilian compliance shapes how armed actors interpret civilian behavior. Fragmented compliance, in which civilians selectively comply with the actor they perceive as most threatening, produces signals that rival forces interpret as support for the opposing side, prompting punitive operations and displacement. By contrast, dual compliance, in which civilians accommodate both rebels and state forces while presenting compliance as exclusive to each, creates behavioral ambiguity. Lacking clear evidence that civilians assist their rival, armed actors tolerate civilian presence and rely instead on surveillance and coercive extraction. The findings show that patterns of civilian compliance shape armed actors' use of violence, producing displacement in some communities and in situ victimization in others. By identifying civilian compliance as the behavioral signal through which armed actors infer civilian support, the article nuances existing explanations of variation in wartime victimization.

• Dedios-Sanguineti, María Cecilia; Buitrago-Rubiano, Felipe; González-Gort, Mónica; Buba, Imrana; Ihring, Diana & Stewart, Crystal [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2026). Assessing the psychometric properties of the WHO-5 Well-being Index in conflict-affected humanitarian contexts. Journal of Child and Adolescent Mental Health. ISSN 1728-0583. 37(2), p. 256–271. doi: 10.2989/17280583.2026.2652959. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background: Children and adolescents living in conflict-driven humanitarian contexts face heightened risks of violence and abuse, which can significantly affect their immediate and long-term well-being. The evaluation of interventions to support adolescent well-being in these settings requires a validated, simple, yet robust measure of the broad construct of psychological well-being. Objective: This study aimed to validate the WHO-5 Well-being Index, a short, self-reported instrument designed to assess subjective psychological well-being, for use with adolescents in two conflict-affected humanitarian contexts, including Colombia and Nigeria. Method: Participants (N = 172) were aged 13 to 17 years and resided in Colombia (n = 90) or Nigeria (n = 82). Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted to assess the WHO-5 Index psychometric properties. Results: A one-factor structure of the WHO-5 Well-being Index was supported, showing high internal consistency (α and ω > 0.80), excellent convergent validity (assessed with the Kidscreen-27 scale, r = 0.797, p < 0.01), and acceptable discriminant validity (assessed with the PHQ-9 scale, r = -0.343, p < 0.001). Confirmatory factor analysis supported the one-factor model, initially with poor fit (CFI = 0.972, TLI = 0.944, RMSEA = 0.105). After accounting for covariance between items 3 and 4, the model fit improved significantly (CFI = 0.998, TLI = 0.994, RMSEA = 0.034). Conclusion: This study reaffirms the WHO-5 Well-being Index as a valid instrument to assess the well-being of Spanish- and Hausa-speaking adolescents who have experienced family separation, abuse, violence, neglect, and/or exploitation in humanitarian contexts.

• Medie, Peace A; Jose, Betcy; Bell-Martin, Rebecca; Marston, Jerome; Buba, Imrana Alhaji & Gray, Felicity [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2026). Civilian Self-Protection in Theory and Practice. International Studies Review. ISSN 1521-9488. 28(4). doi: 10.1093/isr/viag014. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  2025 marked 10 years since International Studies Review (ISR) published “Understanding why and how Civilians Resort to Self-protection in Armed Conflict.” This article situated civilian self-protection in the civilian protection regime. It demonstrated how civilians use self-protection strategies and how these strategies can undermine civilian protection. The article also sought to foster theory building and comparative analyses by advancing a typology of civilian self-protection, which is based on actions taken in intra and interstate conflicts. One of the article’s aims was to elevate civilian agency in discussions of civilian protection in armed conflict. Since then, the study of civilian self-protection (CSP) has grown enormously. What have we learned from this new scholarship about the role civilians play in their own protection? What progress has been made in theory building? What do we still need to study? This forum seeks to return to ISR a conversation among CSP scholars about the state of the field in the last decade and contemplate its future trajectory. The contributions in this forum interrogate a gamut of newer issues pertaining to CSP that convey the concept’s utility for theoretical, methodological, and policy-based discussions. In doing so, they enhance our understandings of civilian experiences and how their protections can be improved. These insights are particularly important given the scale of civilian suffering today amid an unprecedented number of conflicts and violent encounters.

• Holst, Cathrine & Wig, Tore (2026). The affinities between democracy and science. Inquiry (Oslo). ISSN 0020-174X. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel A. N. & Wig, Tore (2026). The Moral Question: Norms and Anti-System Politics. Open Science Framework (OSF). doi: 10.31235/osf.io/nwrtz_v2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Although moral norms are often invoked as political guardrails, their measurement and causal influence remain understudied. We theorize the link between moral norms, personal judgments, and attitudinal consequences and test it in a pre-registered survey experiment with financial incentives. Citizens rarely confront democratic violation alone, but rather bundled ``anti-system'' behaviors of potentially unequal moral weight. Respondents faced moral trade-offs concerning political violence, corruption, and anti-democratic actions, with personal scandals as a baseline. Using a second-order approach to elicit beliefs about what others consider morally wrong, we find that norms against democratic violations are descriptively the weakest, and all lag behind norms against violence. Norms primarily shift judgments when respondents face large discrepancies from their initial perceptions and have strong conformity motives, but this largely does not translate into attitudinal shifts. The findings reveal a moral hierarchy among anti-system behaviors, and detail the consequences and limitations of moral norms for politics.

• Goldstein, Daniel A. N.; Bakke, Kaja Sparre; Dahlum, Sirianne & Wig, Tore (2026). Elites as Democratic Gatekeepers: Theory and Evidence from Norway. Open Science Framework (OSF). doi: 10.31235/osf.io/2rwgt_v2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Numerous studies have examined voters’ support for democracy and reactions to democratic violations by elites. Yet, we know less about the democratic preferences of political elites. This gap matters because elites may act as ``democratic gatekeepers'' by blocking autocratic colleagues from power. We develop a theory of elite gatekeeping and test it using pre-registered survey experiments on a sample of approximately 2,000 national, regional, and local representatives and party officials in Norway. Using multiple experimental designs, we measure internal gatekeeping -- the willingness to punish anti-democratic colleagues within one's own party -- and external gatekeeping -- the willingness to block a governing coalition with anti-democratic parties. Elites engage in both, but neither is absolute: the penalty for anti-democratic behavior is no larger than for ordinary misconduct, and roughly 70% would accept an anti-democratic coalition partner when it secures a governing majority. Democracy's gatekeepers may be less steadfast than they appear.

• Jupskås, Anders Ravik; Solheim, Øyvind Bugge & Jupskås, Anders Ravik (2026). Holdninger på ytterste høyre fløy: nasjonalisme, populisme eller ekstremisme? In Jupskås, Anders Ravik (Eds.), Høyreekstremisme i Norge etter 22. juli: Meninger, mennesker, mobilisering og motstand. Scandinavian University Press (SCUP). ISSN 9788294167326. p. 217–250. doi: 10.18261/9788294167333-26-08. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Kapittelet undersøker nasjonalisme, populisme og høyreekstremisme i Norge som tre distinkte ideologiske orienteringer på ytterste høyre fløy. Med utgangspunkt i en nasjonal, representativ survey viser vi for det første at nasjonalistiske og populistiske holdninger er relativt utbredt, mens høyreekstreme holdninger er marginale. Rundt fire av ti har i noen grad nasjonalistiske eller populistiske tilbøyeligheter, mens kun et lite mindretall uttrykker støtte til eksplisitt ekstreme utsagn, og nesten ingen forsvarer vold eller raserenhet når strengere terskler legges til grunn. For det andre finner vi at de tre holdningstypene har delvis overlappende, men ulike sosiale og psykologiske profiler. Lav utdanning er en felles forklaringsfaktor, mens svak økonomi i seg selv ikke har systematiske effekter. Menn er mer tilbøyelige enn kvinner til å støtte nasjonalisme og særlig ekstremisme, mens populisme fremstår som mer kjønnsnøytral og knyttet til pressede livsfaser i yngre voksenliv. Ekstremisme er sterkest blant menn med lav utdanning i marginaliserte eller overgangspregede livssituasjoner. På personlighetsnivå er lav åpenhet spesifikt knyttet til nasjonalisme, nevrotisisme til ekstremisme, mens planmessighet ser ut til å beskytte mot ekstreme holdninger. Funnene viser at det er misvisende å behandle innvandringsmotstand, systemkritikk og voldssympatier som én samlet «ekstrem» pakke. Analytisk og politisk bør nasjonalisme, populisme og høyreekstremisme skilles tydelig, både for å unngå unødig stigmatisering og for å utvikle mer målrettede strategier mot radikalisering og politisk vold.

• Bergh, Johannes & Hesstvedt, Stine (2026). Kjønnsgap i stemmegivning: En tredje bølge? In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. ISSN 9788202923822. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The modern gender gap in voting, in which men are more likely to vote for center-right parties than women and women tend to vote more for center-left parties, reached a new high in Norway in the 2025-election. The gender gap has never been larger in the close to 70-year history of the Norwegian National Election Study. The gap is especially large among young, Generation Z voters. We find that generational replacement contributes to a rise in the gender gap over time. This suggests that the gap may keep rising in the years to come. Though there are differences between men and women in their views on gender roles and gender equality, these attitudes are not the main drives of gender differences in voting. Rather, attitudinal differences regarding economic issues such as taxes and public spending, as well as immigration policy, accounts for much of the gender gap in voting.

• Bergh, Johannes; Hesstvedt, Stine; Karlsen, Rune & Lunde, Therese (2026). Dagsorden og sakseierskap. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. ISSN 9788202923822. p. 133–154. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter is about political issues in the 2025 election. The most important issues for Norwegian voters in the election, staring with the most important, were taxes, health care, foreign and defense policy, other economic issues, climate/environmental issues, immigration and education. Foreign policy and defense policy rose dramatically in importance since the last election in 2021. The last time these issues were high on the agenda was in the 1980s. Climate change and environmental issues have dramatically declined in importance, whereas economic issues were top of mind for voters in 2025. The two winners in the election, the Progress Party and the Labor Party, have high levels of issue ownership of economic issues. The Progress Party has gained in issue ownership on a number of issues since the last election, while the Conservative Party has lost.

• Aardal, Bernt; Bergh, Johannes & Hesstvedt, Stine (2026). Ideologi og polarisering. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. ISSN 9788202923822. p. 71–108. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The chapter studies the ideological positions of Norwegian voters in connection with the 2025-election. The analyses build on several previous studies from the Norwegian National Election Study that map the ideological political landscape in Norway over time. Norwegian politics is multidimensional. A factor analysis reveals 6 ideological dimensions on which voters hold relatively consistent opinions. They are 1) an economic left-right scale, 2) a climate/ environmental policy scale, 3) an immigration policy scale, 4) a global-national orientation scale, 5) a religious-secular scale and 6) a center-periphery scale. We find evidence of an ideological rightwing shift in the Norwegian electorate from 2021 to 2025; voters are on average moving in the direction of parties on the right on several of these dimensions. We also see evidence of increased ideological polarization in the electorate.

• Hesstvedt, Stine & Langsæther, Peter Egge (2026). Hvem stemte hva? Sosial bakgrunn og stemmegivning ved valget 2025. In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. ISSN 9788202923822. p. 57–70. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter analyses how social background shaped voting in Norway’s 2025 parliamentary election, examining cleavages of centre-periphery, urban-rural, class, education, age, and gender, with historical comparisons back to 1957. Drawing on Statistics Norway register data (N = 10,747) and the Norwegian Election Study (N = 1,800), the authors find growing polarization along social lines. The most striking finding is a historic gender gap among young voters: roughly 38% of men under 30 voted for The Progress Party (FrP), nearly doubling from 2021, while young women gravitated toward The Socialist Left Party (SV) and The Green Party (MDG). The Labour Party (Ap) has shifted toward an older electorate, drawing 53% of women over 70, but struggles to mobilize youth. The Conservative Party (H) have returned to their upper-middle-class roots, losing young men to FrP. Geographically, The Centre Party (Sp) remains dominant in rural areas while The Conservative Party and smaller liberal/green parties concentrate in the Oslo area. FrP broadened its appeal across regions, age groups, and educational levels, combining gains in core constituencies (young men, lower-educated voters) with

• Geissel, Brigitte & Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Democratic innovations to strengthen elected representatives? Discussing the benefits and limitations of mini-publics. Nordic Journal of Innovation in the Public Sector (NJIPS). 5(1), p. 17–17. doi: 10.18261/njips.5.1.1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Democratic innovations are viewed as potential solutions to the challenges faced by representative systems. Thus far, attention has focused on the importance of citizen participation. This article asks how mini-publics, currently the most prominent and widespread form of democratic innovation for involving citizens, may help politicians to better perform their representative role. We begin with the central theoretical understandings of representation and identify three ways in which citizen involvement can satisfy politicians’ representational needs: to obtain inclusive information, to communicate with citizens, and for citizens to possess a certain level of knowledge and civic skills. We argue that mini-publics can provide inclusive information for representatives. However, because deliberation takes place among participating citizens, mini-publics seldom facilitate a direct exchange of views between elected representatives and citizens. Finally, only a small proportion of the citizenry participates in mini-publics, but these forums can contribute to enhancing citizens’ knowledge and civic skills.

• Skagen, Katrine (2026). Why Some Critical Junctures Lead Nowhere: Exploring Dynamic and Static Policy Paths. Governance. An International Journal of Policy, Administration and Institutions. ISSN 0952-1895. 39(4), p. 1–13. doi: 10.1111/gove.70152. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Some critical junctures fail to cause significant change in practice. Inspired by historical institutionalism, this article develops the concept of dynamic and static policy paths to explain why some critical junctures do not lead to change, while others do. Combining insights from policy process literature and policy implementation, it conceptualizes critical junctures through four elements: framing, targets, instruments, and actors/institutions. Based on two case studies, the article argues that the importance of framing and targets has been overexaggerated, and that a dynamic path will not occur unless there is also a significant change in instruments and actors/institutions. In Denmark, a climate policy agreement created a new policy direction for agriculture in which climate policy is a key component. In Norway, a climate policy agreement did not change the trajectory of sectoral policy and climate policy development has remained stagnant. Thus, differences in the critical junctures led to different policy paths.

• Wilhelm, Marie-Thérèse (2026). Echoes of the public: Public opinion and subnational compliance with European environmental directives. European Union Politics. ISSN 1465-1165. doi: 10.1177/14651165261471485. Full text in Research Archive
• Jewell, Jessica; Cherp, Aleh; Geels, Frank Willem; Suzuki, Masahiro; Nacke, Lola & Tosun, Jale [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2026). Policy-driven growth of technologies to accelerate climate action. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. 7(4), p. 235–252. doi: 10.1038/s43017-026-00765-3. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  More than 70% of climate policies target low-carbon technologies, with hopes that policy support will trigger tipping points and self-reinforcing growth. In practice, however, trajectories of policy-driven technologies remain difficult to explain and anticipate because their growth is nonlinear and often constrained by backlash, policy reversals and systemic barriers. In this Perspective, we develop a framework to explain, diagnose, and anticipate the growth of policy-driven technologies through four phases. In the formative phase, rapid innovation, uncertainties and frequent failures lead to erratic growth; in the accelerating growth phase, increasing economic and political returns progressively increase deployment speed; in the steady growth phase, emerging barriers dampen acceleration leading to a pattern in which growth pulsates around its peak; and in the slowdown phase, barriers stall growth and technology reaches its limits. Surprisingly, the scale and complexity of supporting policies do not necessarily diminish as technologies mature. Effective acceleration requires phase-specific policies to support technical and commercial viability in the formative phase, amplify increasing returns in the accelerating growth phase, manage barriers in the steady growth phase, and withdraw or reinvigorate support during the slowdown phase. Further advancing this phase-aware understanding of the co-evolution of policy and technology is essential for improving climate policy design and for developing more realistic technology projections and climate mitigation scenarios.

• Nilsen, Eric Gabo Ekeberg (2026). In times of peril: how liberals embrace national defence. Journal of Peace Research. ISSN 0022-3433. doi: 10.1093/jopres/xjag055. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Earlier literature has found that individuals with more liberal values are less willing to fight for their country in a potential conflict. Because liberal values emphasize self-enhancement and minimize in-group versus out-group distinctions, sacrificing one's life for the nation may appear unnatural. However, these studies have neglected how international conditions shape the attitudes of liberal individuals. In many Western countries, “willingness to fight” has often meant participation in foreign wars rather than defence against direct aggression. This paper argues that while liberal values are negatively correlated with willingness to fight when the state experiences a high degree of security, liberal individuals have a high degree of conditional fight-willingness when confronted with an external threat. A potential conflict will have large consequences for their ability to engage in the goals coming from such values, something that liberal individuals would want to protect. Using a combination of the World Values Survey and a dyadic latent hostility measure, the analysis shows that in threatened countries liberal values exert a positive and substantial effect on individuals' willingness to fight. This conditional effect is strongest in autocratic states, whereas in democracies the threat level must be considerably higher for the same positive relationship to emerge. However, more than 64 country–years in the sample fall into the high-threat category. For small states facing external danger, this dynamic constitutes a crucial component of military capability in an increasingly threatening international system.

• Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum; Kumlin, Staffan & Linde, Jonas (2026). Politisk tillit under press i Norge? In Bergh, Johannes & Haugsgjerd, Atle Hennum (Ed.), Konflikt og mobilisering. En studie av stortingsvalget 2025. Cappelen Damm AS. ISSN 9788202923822. p. 393–421. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter examines how political trust in Norway has developed over time and asks whether recent trends indicate a decline. Using time series from the Norwegian Election Studies, it analyses trust in political institutions and trust in politicians. It also examines differences by generation and gender, as well as winner–loser differences in political trust. The chapter shows that Norway still has high levels of political trust in comparative perspective, but that the overall picture is less stable than before. Trust in political institutions has remained relatively robust since 2005, although it declined from 2021 to 2025. Trust in politicians follows a clearer and more long-term decline, reaching its lowest level in 2025. The analyses also reveal growing differences by generation and gender. Younger cohorts, especially young men, have markedly lower trust in politicians than earlier generations had at the same age. Finally, the winner–loser gap in political trust has historically been small in Norway. In 2025, however, this gap became more pronounced, especially for trust in politicians. The chapter concludes that although Norway is not facing a dramatic trust crisis, several emerging patterns warrant attention.

• Loyle, Cyanne E.; Binningsbø, Helga Malmin & Gates, Scott (2026). Amnesty as a weapon of war: Incentivizing rebel defection during armed conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science. ISSN 0738-8942. doi: 10.1177/07388942261465043. Full text in Research Archive
• Forum, Bjørn Mo (2026). Bureaucratic turnover under new governments: the moderating effect of bureaucratic and political layering. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory (JPART). ISSN 1053-1858. doi: 10.1093/jopart/muag016. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Politically motivated personnel turnover affects government bureaucracy’s legitimacy and performance. To understand the conditions of meritocracy, the article explores how variability in hierarchy moderates the effect of government transitions on bureaucratic turnover. Event history analysis of the careers of 948 Norwegian senior bureaucrats (1884–2024) reveals that the organizational layers separating bureaucrats from ministers moderate the effect of government change differently depending on the layer’s political or bureaucratic nature. Bureaucrats directly exposed to political appointees experience heightened turnover during government transitions, while the turnover of bureaucrats separated from appointees by an intervening layer of career employees is unaffected by government transitions. Further analysis of different time periods and senior bureaucratic roles shows that layering alone does not fully explain political influence on bureaucratic careers. Positions must be hierarchically exposed (lacking intervening bureaucratic layers), functionally politicized (involved in tasks that are strategically important to political leadership), and subject to administrative politicization (by being under the purview of political appointees) to be vulnerable to politically motivated turnover. The article advances scholarship on the politicization of senior bureaucrats in merit bureaucracies by examining 140 years of politically induced turnover through a theory of how layering moderates political dynamics.

• Braut-Hegghammer, Målfrid & Hagstrom, Lauren Elizabeth (2026). Hawks in the High North: The Rise of a Nordic Deterrence Cluster. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies. 9(1), p. 395–414. doi: 10.31374/sjms.506. Full text in Research Archive
• Liyanage, Hasini Ransala (2026). Allied with Constraints: U.S. Adaptive Integration of Nuclear-Constrained Allies. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies. 9(1), p. 433–452. doi: 10.31374/sjms.494. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Thorsen, Dag Einar; Jøsok, Evy & Søyland, Martin (2026). Fokus - Politikk og menneskerettigheter. Aschehoug & Co. ISBN 9788203414732. 398 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Bach, Tobias & Wegrich, Kai (2026). Bureaucracy and Political Science. Policy, Democracy, and Power. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 9783032277572. 148 p. doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-27757-2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Bureaucracy is often seen as background machinery or as an obstacle to effective government. Bureaucracy and Political Science offers a different view. It shows that public bureaucracies are political organizations: shaped by political institutions and actors, but also deeply involved in shaping policy, implementation, reform, and democratic governance. The book explains why bureaucracies cannot be understood through familiar stereotypes of red tape, drift, or inefficiency alone. It shows why managing and reforming public organizations is more political, more contested, and more difficult than standard reform narratives suggest. The result is a clear and accessible account of what bureaucracy is, how it works, and why it remains a central pillar of modern democracy.

• Christensen, Tom; Lægreid, Per & Røvik, Kjell Arne (2026). Organisasjonsteori for offentlig sektor, 5. utgave. Universitetsforlaget. ISBN 9788215076232. 295 p. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dette er ei lærebok i organisasjonsteori for offentlig sektor, med faglig forankring i statsvitenskap. Boka fokuserer på offentlig sektors organisering og virkemåte i representative, demokratiske land som Norge.Boka er et sentralt verktøy for studenter i

• Claes, Dag Harald (2026). Internasjonal politikk - En introduksjon. Cappelen Damm Akademisk. ISBN 9788202866730. 401 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Claes, Dag Harald (2026). The Role of Politics in the Combat Against Climate Change. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 9781789906479. 314 p. doi: https:/www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/the-role-of-politics-in-the-combat-against-climate-change-9781789906479.html?srsltid=AU7gw4WPkS09tRWsl5o6du6-C9mWv62XThQtO1WoRdO8yr0sIRf9G_lz. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The first two chapters of the book cover the two concepts: climate and energy. Chapter 1 is concerned with the history of climate science and the essence of the phenomenon called the greenhouse effect. It briefly describes the consequences of climate change, and in a bit more detail, the causes behind the increase over the last 150 years. Chapter 2 is an introduction to energy, using some physics, and specifically, a description of the various energy sources and the energy system. The chapter also discusses the causes and consequences of the growth in energy consumption. In Chapters 3 and 4, we turn to international climate politics, using two key focal points in the study of International Relations, the conditions for international cooperation and the role of international institutions. Chapter 3 describes the evolution of climate cooperation among states and discusses how a healthy climate is a collective good for all countries and thus exposes climate cooperation to the individual incentive of free riding. Chapter 4 is dedicated to the role of the UNFCCC in light of theories on the character and role of institutions in international politics. Chapter 5 compares states’ climate policies and relates this to their energy mix and other economic factors. The chapter is mainly descriptive and is intended as a factual basis for the discussions in the following chapters. Chapter 6 relates climate policies to characteristics of political systems and discusses the thesis that democracies have more ambitious climate policies than autocracies. The chapter also discusses the relations between governments and interest groups and their implications for climate politics. Chapter 7 describes the democratic political process from aim to action, emphasizing the agenda-setting role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the development of national climate policies, and discusses the challenges of making rational and consequential political decisions. Chapter 8 focuses on the political instruments available to create GHG emission reductions in the various sectors of energy consumption. Chapter 9 presents two economic perspectives: market economics and institutional economics and discusses economic models of optimal climate change policies and the institutional challenges in the fossil fuel sectors. Chapter 10 focuses on the political use of economic instruments to reduce GHG emissions, such as a carbon tax, emission trading systems, and supply-side policies. Chapter 11 discusses moral and ethical aspects related to climate change, from a utilitarian and egalitarian liberal perspective, and how climate relates to international and intergenerational justice. Chapter 12 is devoted to legal aspects of climate change. Based on principles of human rights, the chapter discusses international and national climate law and legislation.

• Tosun, Jale; Bulian, Simon; Gaffney, Alfie; Enguer, Joan & Saad, Emiliano Levario (2026). Subnational Climate Leadership Dynamics Among Under2 Coalition Members. Springer Nature Switzerland. ISBN 9783032126108. doi: 10.1007/978-3-032-12610-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This open access book examines climate policy effort among subnational governments participating in the Under2 Coalition. The central research question investigates whether Under2 Coalition founding members demonstrate greater climate policy effort compared to early joiners (2015-2016) and later joiners (post-2016), and whether these performance differences persist over time. The empirical analysis focuses on subnational governments in five countries that played influential roles in founding and developing the Under2 Coalition: Canada, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The study makes three key contributions to climate governance literature. First, it systematically demonstrates how climate policy effort and leadership dynamics evolve within the Under2 Coalition framework. Second, it provides genuinely comparative insights across two dimensions—comparing different membership categories within countries and across nations. Third, it offers a replicable methodological template for expanding this research approach to other contexts. By examining quantifiable indicators including policies, policy instruments, and greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets, the book provides valuable insights into how multilevel climate governance can be strengthened and sustained over time, bridging theory and practice in understanding subnational climate action.

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• Wold, Alejandro Ayala (2026). Dagsnytt 18 - TV - NRK TV. [TV]. NRK. doi: https:/tv.nrk.no/serie/dagsnytt-atten-tv/sesong/202610/episode/NNFA56100526. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Analyse av nyvalg i Spania

• Wold, Alejandro Ayala (2026). Feil på feil om Ceuta | Klassekampen. Klassekampen. ISSN 0805-3839. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Da opptil 60.000 mennesker tok seg inn i Ceuta, dømte deler av den norske høyresiden raskt: Spania har ført en naiv innvandringspolitikk. En behagelig...

• Wold, Alejandro Ayala (2026). Sánchez’ sjansespill | Klassekampen. Klassekampen. ISSN 0805-3839. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Boligpolitikken mobiliserer velgere på både venstre- og høyresida i Spania. For en plaget statsminister kan det være en mulighet.

• Sandstad, Mette Undheim (2026). Public Agencies in National Climate Governance. doi: https:/ecpr.eu/Events/Event/PanelDetails/17363. Full text in Research Archive
• Boasson, Elin Lerum (2026). Balancing Welfare and Climate: Explaining Norway’s Inequality Inducing Electricity Price Support Scheme. Full text in Research Archive
• Seibicke, Helena & Boasson, Elin Lerum (2026). Scientific Advisory Councils: Facilitating Climate Governance Implementation in Turbulent Times? Full text in Research Archive
• Sandstad, Mette Undheim (2026). Factors influencing variations in climate governance procedures, focusing on Norway and Denmark. Full text in Research Archive
• Tosun, Jale; Mittal, Shivika & Aamodt, Solveig (2026). State-Level Variations in Renewable Energy Implementation: Insights from India. Full text in Research Archive
• Bach, Tobias & Steinebach, Yves (2026). How to Organize Government to Address Cross-Cutting Policy Issues. Full text in Research Archive
• Bach, Tobias (2026). How to Organize Government to Address Cross-Cutting Policy Issues. Full text in Research Archive
• Klausen, Jan Erling (2026). Staten - kontrollør eller veileder for kommunene? Samtiden. ISSN 0036-3928. 2026(1), p. 80–95. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Artikkelen belyser balansen mellom lokalt selvstyre og statlig kontroll i norske generalistkommuner. Over tid har statlig tilsyn dreid fra dialogbasert og faglig veiledning mot streng lovlighetskontroll og systemrevisjon. Dette har ført til et praksisregime henvist til som «kontroll med kontrollene», hvor omfattende krav til internkontroll, formelle saksbehandlingsprosedyrer og skriftlig dokumentasjon risikerer å overskygge den faktiske kvaliteten på kommunale tjenester. Krevende utfordringer med samordning og økt rettighetslovgivning bidrar til at staten i stor grad definerer standardene. Artikkelen reiser dermed et kritisk spørsmål ved om dagens detaljstyring innskrenker kommunenes handlingsrom for mye og hindrer nødvendig lokal omstilling.

• Klausen, Jan Erling & Winsvold, Marte Slagsvold (2026). What Do Politicians Think about Citizen Participation in Unpopular Decisions? Evidence from a Survey Experiment. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Direct interaction with constituents is essential for democratic representation, yet politicians often face hostile public meetings when unpopular decisions are proposed. This paper examines why representatives choose to "face the fury" rather than absenting themselves. Utilizing a survey experiment with approximately 3,000 Norwegian local councillors, we analyse how factors such as issue type, decision stage, and public mobilization affect willingness to attend. Contrary to expectations that politicians might avoid conflict, our findings demonstrate that high public mobilization and salient issues—such as school closures—actually increase reported willingness to participate, despite higher levels of expected discomfort. Exploratory mediation analysis reveals that anticipated discomfort operates as a countervailing mechanism, exerting a negative indirect effect on willingness that is nevertheless overridden by strong direct representational incentives. Furthermore, we identify a crucial boundary condition: the positive effect of public mobilization is neutralized at extreme levels of anticipated discomfort, marking where self-preservation ultimately triumphs over democratic duty. The results suggest that normative pressures and the strategic necessity of demonstrating responsiveness outweigh the personal costs of hostile encounters. By shifting focus to the politicians' perspective within the representative dyad, this study provides actionable insights for institutional design and the functional health of local democracy.

• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick & Wig, Tore (2026). The Moral Question: Norms and Anti-System Politics. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick & Wig, Tore (2026). The Moral Question: Norms and Anti-System Politics. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick; Bakke, Kaja Sparre; Dahlum, Sirianne & Wig, Tore (2026). Elites as Democratic Gatekeepers: Theory and Evidence from Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick (2026). Political Bright Lines: Norms, Information, and Accountability. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick (2026). Political Bright Lines: Norms, Information, and Accountability. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick & Wig, Tore (2026). The Moral Question: Norms and Anti-System Politics. Full text in Research Archive
• Goldstein, Daniel Alexander Novick & Svolik, Milan (2026). Putting Theory to the Test: Conjoint Evidence on Formal Models of Political Competition. Full text in Research Archive
• Lo, Christian & Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Administering democratic innovation – exploring the limits of bureaucratic approaches to democratization. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

• Ravndal, Jacob Aasland (2026). Terrorism Trends Across the Atlantic: Comparing Far-Right and Islamist Terrorism and Violence in Western Europe and the United States. doi: https:/lnkd.in/p/eSC8u4xc. Full text in Research Archive
• Ravndal, Jacob Aasland (2026). Forebygging av radikalisering og voldelig ekstremisme i liberale demokratier. Fra etterretningssvikt til liberaldemokratisk svikt. Full text in Research Archive
• Ravndal, Jacob Aasland & Jupskås, Anders Ravik (2026). Høyreekstrem vold og terror som en sikkerhetstrussel. doi: https:/www.politihogskolen.no/arrangementer/forskningstimen-hoyreekstremisme-i-norge-etter-22..html. Full text in Research Archive
• Søyland, Martin & Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2026). Eliteprivilegier og ansvarsflukt. Full text in Research Archive
• Birkeland, Monica & Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). #88 Den om kompetansebevissthet. doi: https:/www.nokut.no/utdanningskvalitet/nokut-podden/. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Statsvitenskap er arbeidslivsrelevant, men hjelper det om ikke studentene klarer å sette ord på hvordan? I denne episoden møter vi Monika Birkeland og Signy Irene Vabo fra Institutt for statsvitenskap ved Universitetet i Oslo som snakker om hvordan de jobber for å gjøre studentene sine mer bevisste på kompetansen de bygger gjennom studiene. Gjennom praksisemner, prosjektarbeid, alumnitiltak og arbeid med læringsutbyttebeskrivelser har instituttet utviklet en bred verktøykasse for å styrke koblingen mellom studier og arbeidsliv. Hva fungerer, hvilke utfordringer møter de, og hvilke råd har de til andre som vil gjøre det samme?

• Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Podkast uten portefølje: Ny kommunepod! doi: https:/www.kruselarsen.no/podkast/ny-kommunepod-og-ukraina-spesial. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vi graver mer i Kommune-Norges utfordringer. Hør hva kommunalminister Bjørnar Skjæran, tidligere byråd i Bergen, Jacob Mæhle og kommuneprofessor Signy Irene Vabo mener er problemet - og løsningen.

• Geissel, Brigitte; Vabo, Signy Irene & Winsvold, Marte Slagsvold (2026). Politicians’ Trust in Citizens as a Precondition for Inviting Citizens to Participate. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper investigates the foundations of local politicians’ trust in citizens and examines how different bases of trust relate to politicians’ receptiveness to distinct forms of citizen participation. We conceptualize politicians’ trust in citizens along perceptions of competence, common-good orientation, and discernment. The analyses are based on data from 2343 local councillors in Norway. Our findings show that trust in citizens is a key driver of receptiveness to participatory arrangements and outweighs standard political predictors such as ideology, office, and representational style. Crucially, however, not all bases of trust matter equally. The decisive factor is less whether politicians view citizens as civic minded or hard to manipulate than whether they regard them as capable contributors to policymaking. Politicians’ openness to consequential participation thus appears to rest on a role-specific conception of trustworthiness in which competence is a central condition for sharing political influence. We conclude by discussing implications for democratic innovation and the limits of participatory reforms.

• Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Hurra for kommunestyret! doi: https:/www.kommunal-rapport.no/meninger/hurra-for-kommunestyret/848085. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Jeg heier på kommunestyret, som må samle trådene og stå til ansvar for helheten i tilbudet til innbyggerne.

• Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Det er fare for at lokal­politikerne over­vurderer hvor tett de er på innbyggerne. doi: https:/www.kommunal-rapport.no/meninger/det-er-fare-for-at-lokalpolitikerne-overvurderer-hvor-tett-de-er-pa-innbyggerne/856692. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vi har et demokratisk problem dersom innbyggerne ikke oppfatter politikerne som lydhøre og beredt til å følge opp.

• Vabo, Signy Irene (2026). Ja til folkevalgt dialog med folk. doi: https:/www.kommunal-rapport.no/meninger/ja-til-folkevalgt-dialog-med-folk/869839. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dialog alene løser ikke de utfordringene kommunesektoren står overfor, men er likevel nødvendig.

• Vukasovic, Martina; Elken, Mari & Jungblut, Jens (2026). Coupling of rules and practices in higher education.
• Lutscher, Philipp Matthias; Dræge, Jonas; Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Donnay, Karsten (2026). The dark logic of visual strongman propaganda. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Propaganda: visual strongman propaganda can mobilise supporters, but its effectiveness depends on regime type and political context

• Lintvedt, Mona Naomi; Tangen, Thomas Huh & Sterri, Aksel (2026). Politisk frokost: Medborger i en maskinlærende stat. Full text in Research Archive
• Toscano, Leonor; Krause, Jana; Klaus, Kathleen & Olsson, Louise (2026). “In Peace Committees, the Women Have Broken the Chains”: How Hybrid Institutions Shape Women's Agency in Local Peacebuilding. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Women’s participation in all aspects of peacemaking has received significant scholarly and policy attention, especially in the aftermath of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325, commonly known as the Women, Peace and Security Agenda. At the same time, scholars and practitioners have emphasised the importance of addressing local conflict dynamics and of bringing local actors and their practices and knowledge to the foreground. In line with this development, local institutions like local peace committees (LPCs), which can be formalised under a peacebuilding architecture, have become more prominent in conflict affected societies. While significant progress has been made in understanding how women contribute to formal peace process and negotiations, less attention has been paid to women’s inclusion and agency in local peacebuilding. We also know little about how women exercise agency within LPCs and about how the institutional character of these shapes what women can do. This dissertation examines how women exercise peacebuilding agency in Kenya's institutionalised peacebuilding architecture, with a particular focus on LPCs. It poses two research questions: how do women exercise agency and contribute to local peacebuilding in Kenya, particularly in LPCs? And how does the hybrid character of LPCs shape their participation and impact? The central argument is that women's peacebuilding agency is institutionally mediated by the hybrid character of LPCs. Because the latter are positioned between state authority, local community, and international norms, this shapes women’s agency via two interconnected mechanisms. The first concerns costs and benefits of participation, because while this hybrid institutional setting grants women access to training, WPS frameworks, and cross-county networks, it simultaneously imposes important material and social costs that not all women can equally bear. The second concerns the political conditions that govern how the convergence of actors in this hybrid system plays out in, specifically the quality of local cooperation and the degree and quality of state interference. Together, these mechanisms produce a specific configuration of opportunities and constraints that shapes the forms agency can take. The thesis empirically maps how women respond to this configuration by enacting multiple modalities of agency. The dissertation consists of three articles that centre the experiences of women in and outside the LPC structure. Article 1 examines how the institutional structure of LPCs and Kenya's growing illiberal approach to peacebuilding shape women members' participation and agency. Article 2 explores women's role as custodians of conflict-sensitive information and shows that their capacity to leverage this resource depends on local conditions that determine whether women's contributions elicit response. Article 3 shifts focus to women outside the architecture, namely to residents of informal settlements in Nairobi and Mombasa and shows that access and trust barriers produced by the state's dual role as formaliser of peace institutions and agent of everyday violence contributes to a legitimacy gap whereby local committees remain socially remote. Women thus turn to informal alternatives. The dissertation makes important empirical and theoretical contributions to existing knowledge. Empirically, it leverages novel material and a qualitative account of women's participation in Kenya’s peacebuilding architecture and brings women insiders and outsiders into the same analytical frame. Theoretically, the thesis theorises two concrete mechanisms through which the hybrid character of LPCs mediates women's agency - costs and benefits of participation and political conditions – and it also documents women’s modalities of agency, what they do in response to this configuration of opportunities and constraints created by hybridity. The thesis also shows that when LPCs become institutionalised and when the state is one of the actors converging in this hybrid institutional logic, this can have important consequences for women because the state is often implicated in the conflict dynamics that LPCs are supposed to address.

• Israelsen, Mathilde; Hovi, Jon & Mellemseter-Nygård, Evy Marie (2026). Et digitalt hvelv uten egne nøkler. Digitale sårbarheter og nasjonal kontroll i møte med norsk offentlig sektors avhengighet av Microsofts skytjenester. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne masteroppgaven undersøker Norges teknologiske avhengighet av Microsofts skytjenester gjennom Farrell og Newmans teori om weaponized interdependence. Studien belyser et moderne paradoks: For å modernisere offentlig sektor har Norge bygget sin digitale grunnmur på amerikansk teknologi. Noe som i teorien gir en utenlandsk makt kontroll over statens digitale funksjoner. Ved å anvende weaponized interdependence som et rammeverk, identifiseres Norge som en «spoke» i et asymmetrisk nettverk der Microsoft og USA fungerer som en sentral «hub». Denne strukturen muliggjør to maktmekanismer: overvåkning (panopticon-effekten) og kvelningspunkter (chokepoint-effekten). Den empiriske analysen viser at 97 % av norske statlige virksomheter benytter skytjenester, og at Microsoft dominerer med en markedsandel på om lag 63 % i allmennsky-markedet. Denne konsentrasjonsrisikoen skaper sårbarheter der amerikansk jurisdiksjon, som Cloud Act, og teknisk kontroll over virtualiseringslag (hypervisor) gir USA mulighet til å hente ut sensitive data eller lamme kritiske samfunnsfunksjoner. Oppgaven løfter frem at relasjonen mellom Norge og USA historisk har vært preget av stabilitet og tette sikkerhetsinteresser. Likevel, har et endret geopolitisk bilde, med en mer uforutsigbar og transaksjonell amerikansk politikk, skapt ny usikkerhet knyttet til teknologisk avhengighet. Microsoft har selv iverksatt tiltak for å sikre kundenes data og begrense innsyn, blant annet gjennom tekniske suverenitetsstrategier og juridiske barrierer. Samtidig vedvarer en strukturell risiko ettersom USA fortsatt besitter både juridisk og teknisk makt over de underliggende systemene. Dette tvinger Norge til å vurdere sine nåværende digitale løsninger og muligheten til å etablere en nasjonal skyløsning for å ivareta statens styringsevne og handlefrihet. Avslutningsvis vurderes tiltak for å styrke norsk digital suverenitet, inkludert utredningen av en «nasjonal sky» og internasjonale modeller som den franske hybridløsningen «Bleu». Studien konkluderer med at Norge per i dag mangler en samordnet strategi for å bryte leverandøravhengigheten, og at det er nødvendig med en helhetlig politikk som balanserer behovet for teknologisk innovasjon mot nasjonale sikkerhetsinteresser.

• Bratberg, Øivind; Szulecki, Kacper & Kalvik, Ylva Bodil (2026). Klimasikkerhetiseringens diskurs: en analyse av hvordan klimakrisen sikkerhetiseres i etableringen av EUs klimalov. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Sammendrag og filene vil publiseres: 2031-05-29

• Jupskås, Anders Ravik & Aaby, Simen Ellingsen (2026). No Longer Exceptional? The Accommodation of Authoritarian Penal Populism by Scandinavian Mainstream Parties. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Populist radical right (PRR) parties and their policy positions have become increasingly normalized (mainstreamed). Much literature has already been devoted to look at this mainstreaming of PRR-policy positioning, looking at a broader set of policies, or zooming in at specific policy areas at the core of PRR-parties. This thesis departs from the surprisingly unstudied area of penal policy, which is at the heart of PRR-parties. Here, it modifies the existing penal populism concept within criminology to better reflect the penal policy of PRR-parties, in the form of authoritarian penal populism. More specifically, this thesis seeks to answer whether increased electoral success of PRR-parties leads to accommodation of authoritarian penal populism by mainstream parties. This is done through the case of the Scandinavian countries, representing a least-likely case due to their proposed penal ‘exceptionalism’. Highlighting the (at times) different incentives for mainstream left (social democratic) and right (conservative) parties, this thesis hypothesize the responses of the parties to the electoral growth of PRR-parties through the lens of parties as vote-, office- and policy-seeking. Applying a longitudinal analysis of the party manifestos of social democratic, conservative and PRR-parties using a (modified) confrontational approach, it finds substantial accommodation of authoritarian penal populism by mainstream parties in the case of Norway and Sweden, with conservative parties accommodating to a larger extent. This accommodation typically follows the election(s) in which the PRR-parties have experienced electoral breakthough(s), with alternative explanations that are explored providing significantly less explanatory power. Substantial accommodation is not found in the Danish case, although this could be explained through their relatively high levels of authoritarian penal populism from the outset, along with poor data quality, more policy-seeking parties, higher party system fragmentation and declining crime rates. Other (novel) findings include (1) the sequential nature of accommodation responses, and (2) the radicalization of PRR-parties following mainstream party accommodation. The latter is especially interesting, as it suggests that accommodation of PRR-positioning from mainstream parties may result in more emboldened and extreme PRR-parties, along with existing literature pointing to accommodation as being electorally detrimental to mainstream parties, while being beneficial for PRR-parties.

• Goldstein, Daniel & Helland, Kristine (2026). Strategic Incentives to Alliance Defection. A Qualitative Study Examining the Effects of Domestic Democratic Erosion on Hungary and Poland’s Behaviour in NATO. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Democratic backsliding has emerged as one of the defining political challenges of the contemporary era, yet its implications for multilateral security cooperation remain insufficiently theorised. This thesis examines how democratic backsliding shapes alliance behaviour within NATO, using Hungary and Poland as a paired comparative case study over the period of 1999 to 2024. Despite acceding to NATO in the same year, sharing similar historical experiences, and undergoing significant democratic erosion, the two states have produced sharply divergent behaviour within the Alliance. To explain this divergence, the thesis develops a five-factor analytical framework integrating material and normative dimensions of intra-alliance behaviour to trace the trajectory of their behaviour since acceding to NATO. The analysis finds that democratic backsliding reduces norm compatibility in both cases, but that its consequences for alliance conduct are mediated by material incentives for cooperation. Where strategic incentives for cooperation remained strong, alliance cohesion persisted despite normative erosion; where such incentives weakened, democratic backsliding was more likely to translate into preference divergence and intra-alliance friction. The thesis concludes that democratic backsliding represents a conditional rather than a deterministic threat to alliance cohesion, whose consequences depend on the strategic context in which it occurs.

• Riddervold, Marianne & Nordvik, Nora Tøraasen (2026). Fredsnasjonen Norge: Hvor vi står og hvor vi går. Hvorfor opprettholder Norge fredsengasjementet når verden endres – verdier, interesse, eller gammel vane? Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne masteroppgaven har undersøkt forskningsspørsmålet: Hvorfor opprettholder Norge en kontinuitet i fredsengasjementet i en tid der nasjonale sikkerhetsinteresser og hard makt i økende grad preger utenrikspolitikken? Russlands fullskalainvasjon av Ukraina i 2022 innledet den mest alvorlige sikkerhetspolitiske situasjonen i Europa siden andre verdenskrig og markerte et vendepunkt i den internasjonale verdensordenen. På samme tid utfordres den tidligere etablerte konsensusen rundt liberale normer og verdier i økende grad, og normative agendaer har blitt mer omstridt. Fra et realistisk perspektiv skaper dette en forventning om at normative utenrikspolitiske satsinger som fredspolitikk, vil nedprioriteres til fordel for tradisjonell sikkerhet, militær kapasitet og strategiske interesser. Samtidig ser vi tendenser til en slik utvikling i en rekke sammenlignbare europeiske stater, hvor utenrikspolitikken i økende grad begrunnes gjennom sikkerhetspolitiske og nasjonale interesser. Til tross for dette fremstår det norske fredsengasjementet som preget av betydelig kontinuitet. Denne oppgaven har dermed undersøkt begrunnelsen for at det norske fredsengasjementet har blitt videreført i dagens sikkerhetspolitiske kontekst etter 2022. Tidligere forskning på norsk utenrikspolitikk og fredsengasjementet preges av to dominerende forklaringer: som et uttrykk for norsk identitet, verdier og rolleforståelse, eller som et strategisk virkemiddel som brukes for å fremme norske interesser. Oppgaven supplerer dette med et mindre anvendt institusjonelt perspektiv, hvor kontinuiteten undersøkes som et resultat av stiavhengighet og vane. Oppgaven benytter en kvalitativ casestudie med diskursanalyse som metodisk tilnærming. Datamaterialet består av offentlige dokumenter og åtte semistrukturerte intervjuer med aktører fra politikken, forvaltningen og aktører med erfaring fra utenrikstjenesten. Gjennom en analyse av dette datamaterialet, har jeg undersøkt hvordan ulike aktører begrunner kontinuiteten i det norske fredsengasjementet etter 2022. Funnene viser at det norske fredsengasjementet fortsatt har en sterk verdi- og identitetsforankring, men at begrunnelsene for videreføringen har gjennomgått en dreining, der det i økende grad legges vekt på interesser. Overordnet bidrar disse funnene til å fortelle oss noe om hvordan norsk utenrikspolitikk begrunnes i en endret verdenskontekst hvor den liberale verdensordenen utfordres, og realpolitiske hensyn får større betydning.

• Winsvold, Marte & Moen, Martine (2026). Lik lønn for likt arbeid?. En analyse av politiske aktørers problemforståelse av kjønnslønnsgapet i den norske samfunnsdebatten. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne studien undersøker hvordan lønnsforskjeller mellom kjønn forstås som et politisk problem i den norske samfunnsdebatten. Det er bred oppslutning om likelønnsidealet, og bred enighet om at det eksisterer et lønnsgap mellom kvinner og menn i Norge. Samtidig er det stor uenighet om hvordan lønnsforskjellene skal forstås, hva som forårsaker dem, og hvilke tiltak som er nødvendige. Studiens tilnærming er kvalitativ og benytter rammeteori, kritisk diskursanalyse og WPR-analyse for å analysere meningsytringer fra politiske aktører. Funnene viser at likelønnsdebatten struktureres gjennom konkurrerende tolkningsrammer, spesielt knyttet til strukturell diskriminering, arbeidslivets mekanismer, og individuelle valg. Disse tolkningsrammene brukes ulikt av ulike aktører, som ofte drar ulike konklusjoner basert på det samme statistiske grunnlaget. Studien har identifisert tre hovedkategorier av problemrepresentasjoner i debatten: problemavvisning, problemomdefinering og problemforsterkning. Analysen viser at mer omfattende systemkritiske perspektiver og utdypende forklaringsnyanser er fraværende i debatten. Konklusjonen er at likelønnskampen ikke bare er en kamp om økonomisk utjevning, men en kamp om definisjonsmakt. Ulike problemforståelser legger føringer for hvilke løsninger som framstår som legitime, og påvirker politikkutformingen og muligheten til å oppnå likelønn.

• Gates, Scott & Hansen, Iris H. C. (2026). Lobbying the EU from Norway Norwegian Public Affairs Firms and EU Policymaking. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Abstract will be published: 2028-05-15

• Nilsen, Eric Gabo Ekeberg & Wig, Tore (2026). From Principles to Battle Lines. How information from and about external actors affect attitudes to war. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This thesis examines how information from and about external actors—communities, political elites, allies, and enemies — shapes individuals’ attitudes toward war and security policy. While a large literature explains such attitudes through individual-level factors such as values, ideology, and other stable traits, less is known about how malleable attitudes respond to the broader social and political context in which they are embedded. At a time when an increasing number of powerful actors actively seek to influence societal norms and foreign policy preferences, understanding how such influence operates is vital for assessing public attitudes as a constraint and shaping factor of security policy. Across four papers, this thesis develops and tests a relational, actor-based approach to public attitudes toward war and security. The first two articles examine how citizens rely on social and moral cues when interpreting and evaluating the legitimacy of war. The first article (co-written with Tore Wig and Daniel Goldstein) shows that individuals draw on second-order moral norms — perceptions of what their peer group considers morally acceptable — when judging the morality of using force. These perceived norms shape general moral evaluations of war, but their influence on support for concrete conflicts is conditional and limited. The second article extends this logic to political communication by examining whether moral reframing by elites can shift public opinion on specific conflicts. While respondents consistently prefer wars framed in moral terms, targeted moral messages rarely override strong pre-existing beliefs about the justness of war. Together, these papers demonstrate that moral influence operates through socially embedded perceptions, but that its effects are bounded by prior convictions and perceived authenticity. The second set of articles investigates how changes in the international environment shape attitudes toward national defence and alliance commitments. The third article shows that willingness to fight for one’s country is not solely a function of liberal values, but also responds to external threat. Under conditions of rising hostility, even liberal individuals, typically more reluctant to support the use of force, become more willing to defend their country. The final article (co-written with Hannah Jakob Barret) demonstrates that anticipated U.S. retrenchment increases Europeans’ support for higher defence spending, while simultaneously reducing their willingness to defend allies perceived as less similar or normatively distant. This highlights how alliance commitments are filtered through group identity and moral boundaries. Taken together, the thesis shows that influence from external actors is central to understanding how attitudes toward war and security policy are formed and updated. Individuals do not rely solely on stable values and preferences, but adapt to a changing security environment and to signals from elites, allies, and their social surroundings. It is this interaction with the broader socio-political context that renders attitudes malleable, and that helps explain variation in public support for war and peace. Understanding such malleability is essential for explaining how societies perceive threats, legitimate the use of force, and ultimately choose between war and peace.

• Bratberg, Øivind & Thorup, Emil Ingebrigtsen (2026). Mellom styring og autonomi Politikkens møte med kunstfeltets autonomi i norsk kulturpolitikk. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne masteroppgaven undersøker hvordan Arbeiderpartiet og Fremskrittspartiet legitimerer og artikulerer kulturpolitikk i Norge i perioden 2001–2026. Med utgangspunkt i Niklas Luhmanns systemteori analyseres partienes kulturpolitiske kommunikasjon gjennom partiprogrammer, stortingsdebatter og offentlige dokumenter. Oppgaven undersøker særlig hvordan partiene håndterer spenningen mellom politisk styring og kunstfeltets autonomi i et funksjonelt differensiert samfunn. Analysen viser at Arbeiderpartiet i hovedsak legitimerer kulturpolitikken gjennom sosialdemokratiske verdier som deltakelse, tilgjengelighet og kulturell demokratisering, samtidig som partiet opprettholder prinsippet om armlengdes avstand. Fremskrittspartiet kombinerer på sin side liberalistiske argumenter om marked, effektivitet og begrenset statlig styring med verdikonservative forestillinger om kultur, nasjon og tilhørighet. Oppgaven viser at begge partier preges av interne ideologiske spenninger, og at kulturpolitikken fungerer som et område hvor bredere konflikter om stat, marked og nasjonal identitet kommer til uttrykk. Videre argumenteres det for at armlengdes avstand-prinsippet kan forstås som en institusjonalisert løsning på de strukturelle utfordringene som oppstår i møtet mellom politikk og kunst. Oppgaven konkluderer med at kulturpolitikk ikke bare handler om ressursfordeling, men også om forholdet mellom styring, autonomi og legitimitet i moderne samfunn.

• Dræge, Jonas Bergan & Overvåg, Oda (2026). Between Resistance and Survival. A qualitative case study of women's rights organizations' responses to autocratization in Tunisia. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Rising autocratization globally has placed women’s rights organizations under increasing pressure. This is also the case in Tunisia, where growing repression on civil society since 2021 also has affected organizations working on women’s rights. Women’s rights organizations occupy an ambiguous position in autocratic regimes. On the one hand, autocratic regimes might promote certain women’s rights to gain legitimacy, they may simultaneously repress women’s rights and women’s rights organizations perceived as threatening. On the other hand, many women’s rights organizations combine advocacy activities with direct service-provision to women, giving them a hybrid role compared to purely advocacy-oriented organizations. Despite the growing literature on autocratization and civil society, the responses of women’s rights organizations remain underexplored. This thesis addresses this gap through a qualitative case study by asking: how do women’s rights organizations in Tunisia respond to the autocratizations process? This thesis finds that most women’s organizations in Tunisia adapt to the regime rather than openly resist, using three main strategies: self-censorship, a shift from advocacy to service- provision and reduced collaboration with other women’s rights organizations. The thesis argues that the relationship between resistance and adaptation best can be understood as a dilemma, in which the organizations must navigate between competing pressures regarding promoting democracy and women’s rights, while ensuring survival. While some organizations resist the autocratization process because they see democracy as a precondition for women’s rights, most organizations adapt out of fear that their closure would harm the women dependent on their services. The findings therefore suggest that the women’s rights organizations role as service providers makes resistance especially costly. Finally, this thesis discusses possible implications of these responses, considering how their responses might contribute to the stability of the autocratizing regime and the ensuring of organizational capacity for future mobilization.

• Steinebach, Yves; Jungblut, Jens & Molde, Tuva Lima (2026). Growing Fields, Frozen Templates. Policy Accumulation and the Evolution of Implementation Structures. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Modern democracies adopt an ever-growing number of policies, placing increasing demands on the administrations responsible for implementing them (Adam et al., 2019). When resources do not keep pace, implementers resort to triage: making difficult choices about which tasks to complete, delay, or neglect (Knill et al., 2026). Yet while the consequences of policy accumulation for administrative capacity have attracted growing scholarly attention, a more fundamental question has gone largely unexamined: does accumulation reshape the very structures through which implementation is organised? This thesis asks: how do implementation structures evolve under policy accumulation? The argument is that accumulation transforms the administrative landscape at the aggregate level while leaving the design of individual policies largely untouched. As policies pile up, instrument diversification and the growing demand for specialised competences draw new actors into existing arrangements, producing cumulative structural complexity through passive accretion rather than deliberate redesign (Howlett & Ramesh, 2016; Lundin, 2007; Streeck & Thelen, 2005). At the same time, path dependence, political incentives favouring adoption over administrative housekeeping, and weak feedback from implementation back to policy design make active structural containment an unlikely response (Hinterleitner, 2020; Mahoney, 2000; Pierson, 2009). The result is a growing gap between the aggregate complexity of the implementation landscape and the structural template of the typical policy, which remains stable across decades. This dual dynamic is examined using novel data on implementation structures across four European countries between 1976 and 2024 in the field of environmental policy. The findings confirm the expected pattern: cumulative structural complexity rises substantially in all four countries, while average per-policy structures remain largely stable. The thesis contributes the first systematic measurement of implementation structures at the aggregate level, a theoretical framework connecting accumulation to structural change, and empirical evidence that the absence of active portfolio management documented at the macro reform level holds equally at the level of individual policy design (Knill et al., 2025).

• Rafstedt, My; Dokken, Karin & Torjussen, Veronica Marije (2026). Navigating a Changing Aid Landscape. Norwegian Aid Actors’ Interpretations and Responses to the 2025 USAID Shutdown with Gender Equality as a Cross-Cutting Commitment. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This thesis examines how Norwegian aid actors working in Ethiopia interpret and respond to the 2025 shutdown of USAID, with particular attention to how they engage with gender equality as a cross-cutting commitment in Norwegian development policy. It contributes to three strands of political science literature: debates on aid suspensions and withdrawals, emerging work on donors’ responses to external shocks, and feminist scholarship on gender mainstreaming in development. By focusing on donor-side sense-making, the study provides new empirical insight into how donor actors interpret and respond to major disruptions in the aid system. The thesis analyses donor interpretations and responses using an interpretive approach informed by postcolonial and feminist perspectives. It draws on eight semi-structured interviews with Norwegian aid actors conducted during a fieldwork in Addis Ababa and Oslo. Ethiopia serves as a critical case due to its former position as a major recipient of American aid, and its centrality in Norwegian development cooperation. The findings show that Norwegian aid actors interpret the shutdown as both a disruptive shock and as part of a broader trend of declining aid and shifting donor priorities, prompting reflection on aid effectiveness, donor roles and dependency within the aid system. Despite expressions of commitment to gender equality and increased support for sexual and reproductive health and rights, responses suggested tensions between policy ambitions and practice. The thesis argues that donor shocks such as the USAID shutdown can act as a catalyst for rethinking aid practices and power relations. It also demonstrates the limits to the implementation of commitments to gender equality in practice. The findings have broader implications for political science by underscoring the importance of donor-side analysis in understanding aid dynamics, and by highlighting the need for more robust integration of cross-cutting gender priorities in times of crises and restructuring.

• Blahak, Jana & Mæland, Henrik (2026). Burning Down the Housing Bank?. A process tracing of Norwegian housing policy retrenchment. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This master’s thesis examines how Norwegian housing policy was retrenched through a process tracing of the Norwegian State Housing Bank (NSHB) from 1978 to 2005. The welfare retrenchment literature has identified both formal and informal mechanisms of change, but has paid limited attention to how these mechanisms interact with one another. The thesis addresses this gap by asking: through which mechanisms was the NSHB retrenched, and how did these mechanisms interact? Through a theory-testing process tracing based on policy documents, parliamentary debates, annual reports, and spending developments, the thesis identifies the presence and interaction of four key mechanisms: formal amendment, drift, layering, and conversion. The findings show that retrenchment in the Norwegian case did not unfold through a single dominant mechanism, nor in a strictly sequential manner. Instead, relatively low barriers to formal policy change allowed formal amendments to operate alongside informal mechanisms in a relationship of mutual reinforcement. Drift functioned as a pressure-building mechanism by generating growing mismatches between policy goals and policy outcomes. These pressures were repeatedly addressed through partial corrections, especially layering in the form of means-tested measures and expanded private provision, rather than through full correction. Conversion emerged more strongly in later stages, particularly after decentralization and increased administrative discretion widened the scope for informal redirection of policy goals. The thesis argues that, in consensus-oriented systems with relatively accessible formal decision-making, informal retrenchment mechanisms need not merely substitute for blocked formal change. They may also complement and deepen formal retrenchment. By theorizing and demonstrating these inter-mechanistic relationships, the study contributes to the welfare retrenchment literature and to research on housing policy transformation. More broadly, it highlights how universalist housing institutions may be gradually transformed into residual safety nets through the concurrent operation of multiple reinforcing mechanisms.

• Helgøy, Anna; Hermansen, Åsmund & Olsen, Kaja Nygard (2026). Hvor blir det av mødrene? En kvantitativ registerdatastudie av relative arbeidsbelastningsforskjeller og yrkesdeltagelse innad i par etter første barn. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Det er ikke en selvfølge at mødre returnerer fullt ut til arbeidslivet etter første barn. Mange kvinner i Norge jobber deltid etter første barn, til tross for en offensiv familiepolitikk med mål om å øke kvinners yrkesdeltagelse. Tidligere forskning har fokusert på at kvinner generelt tjener mindre enn sine mannlige partnere, som gjør det rasjonelt på husholdningsnivå at kvinnen reduserer sin yrkesdeltagelse hvis en tidsklemme oppstår. En mindre undersøkt potensiell forklaring på mødres deltidsarbeid er at kvinner og menn utsettes for vesentlig ulike arbeidsbelastninger som konsekvens av det kjønnssegregerte arbeidsmarkedet. Dette er masteroppgavens bidrag. Med norske registerdata finner jeg at par (N = 8 540) med arbeidsbelastningsforskjeller har større sannsynlighet for nedgang i yrkesdeltagelse etter første barn. Tre typer arbeidsbelastning undersøkes: psykososial, mekanisk og kryssbelastning – og alle viser signifikante resultater. Kryssbelastning, som er en kombinasjon av psykososial og mekanisk belastning, er særlig utbredt i de kvinnedominerte yrkene, og viser de tydeligste mønstrene knyttet til redusert yrkesdeltagelse. Utfallene er kjønnede: mens både kvinner og menn reduserer yrkesdeltagelsen etter første barn, reduserer kvinner systematisk arbeidstiden mer. For å søke å forklare kjønnsasymmetrien introduserer jeg trippelbyrdehypotesen. Når høy kryssbelastning i yrket kombineres med omsorgsansvar i hjemmet etter første barn, og relativt lavere inntekt enn partner, oppstår det som i denne oppgaven betegnes som en trippelbyrde. En følge av det kjønnssegregerte arbeidsmarkedet er at kvinner oftere vil oppleve en slik trippelbyrde, siden de oftere er i yrker med større kryssbelastning og lavere lønn sammenlignet med partner. I tillegg får kvinner en større omsorgsbyrde enn menn når de har fått barn, selv i egalitære land som Norge. Samlet viser resultatene at relative forskjeller i arbeidsbelastning innad i par er av betydning for yrkesdeltagelse etter første barn, og at dette gjelder kvinner i større grad enn menn.

• Sandstad, Mette Undheim & Fahlvik, Thea Marie Larsen (2026). Når oljen får dobbelt stemme En kritisk diskursanalyse av debatten om oljeskattepakken. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Sammendrag Masteroppgaven undersøker hvordan oljeskattepakken ble språklig legitimert som nødvendig og ansvarlig krisepolitikk i den politiske debatten. Gjennom Norman Faircloughs kritiske diskursanalyse identifiserer oppgaven to konkurrerende diskurser: en hegemonisk diskurs som framstiller oljeskattepakken som nasjonal fellesinteresse og en motdiskurs som framstiller krisepakken som en sektorbasert særinteresse. Disse diskursene møtes ved tre brytningspunkter, krise, arbeid og omstilling, der petroleumspolitikken enten fremmes som et bredt samfunnshensyn eller avgrenses til en kapital- og næringsinteresse. Analysen viser at fellesinteresse-diskursen oppnår hegemonisk posisjon gjennom en koordinert språklig praksis der kapital- og arbeidsinteresser fremmes som én samlet stemme. Med utgangspunkt i Mildenbergers (2020) teori om dobbel representasjon, utvidet med kriseperspektiv, argumenterer oppgaven for at dobbel representasjon under krise også må forstås som en diskursiv praksis. Det er først når kapital- og arbeidsinteresser fremmer overlappende problemforståelser i et felles språk om hva som står på spill i krisetid at mekanismen får sin fulle legitimerende kraft. Oppgaven bidrar dermed til forståelsen av hvordan makt i norsk klima- og petroleumspolitikk ikke bare virker gjennom institusjoner og økonomiske ressurser, men også gjennom språk, problemdefinisjoner og politiske fortellinger.

• Søyland, Martin & Coelho, Indira (2026). Detecting Foreign Information Manipulation on Social Media - Content detection algorithms and digital security governance. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This thesis investigates the ability of automated text analysis tools, a core feature of social media content moderation algorithms, in capturing the distinguishing features of foreign information manipulation and interference, and discusses how these can potentially impact security and digital governance frameworks. By analyzing a sample of Twitter/X data from the first month of the Russian ground invasion of Ukraine, we explore potential correlations between social media activity patterns and information operations, and discuss the meaning of these findings in relation to the future of security and digital governance. We find that most individual text analysis techniques provide inconclusive and/or ambiguous results, while a combination of methods informed by narrative-specific features offer a much clearer picture of malicious information manipulation attempts. We discuss the importance of further developing security-oriented narrative tracking tools, and how they could provide defensible and feasible parameters for a comprehensive digital governance framework. Lastly, we pinpoint key areas for further research on the topic.

• Askim, Jostein & Tunby, Hauk Kramer (2026). Norske opposisjonspartiers bruk av alternative statsbudsjetter, 2013-2025. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Masteroppgaven undersøker hvilke funksjoner alternative statsbudsjetter fyller for norske opposisjonspartier. Studien har et casebasert forskningsdesign og baseres empirisk på intervjuer med politikere, dokumentstudier av alternative statsbudsjetter og budsjettavtaler, samt analyser av mediearkiver. Forskningen på alternative statsbudsjetter er svært begrenset, og studien har derfor et eksplorerende preg, samtidig som den er forankret i Müller og Strøms skille mellom policy-, office- og vote-seeking som partienes grunnleggende målsettinger. Studien viser for det første at opposisjonspartier bruker alternative statsbudsjetter som et virkemiddel for å oppnå politiske gjennomslag i budsjettforhandlinger i Stortinget, blant annet ved å kvalitetssikre forhandlingsposisjoner gjennom Finansdepartementets spørreinstitutt. For det andre har budsjettene en viktig funksjon i et velgerperspektiv utover selve budsjettforhandlingene, ved å danne grunnlag for politiske utspill og fungere som referansedokumenter i offentlig debatt. For det tredje – og kanskje mest overraskende – fyller alternative statsbudsjetter også interne partifunksjoner, blant annet knyttet til opplæring og disiplinering av stortingsgruppene, samt til å styrke partidemokratiet gjennom involvering av partiorganisasjonen. Videre viser studien at hvilke funksjoner alternative statsbudsjetter fyller, påvirkes av institusjonelle forhold og varierer med partienes rolle – særlig om de er aktuelle budsjettpartnere for regjeringen eller opptrer som rene opposisjonspartier. Samlet sett fremstår alternative statsbudsjetter som rasjonelle og flerfunksjonelle virkemidler som norske opposisjonspartier benytter for å realisere flere av sine målsettinger.

• Withorne, Jamie Rae; Bergaust, Julie Celine & Retzius, Marte Sjåvik (2026). Knowledge, Planning and Execution: How Small States Handle Hybrid Threats. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Østhagen, Andreas & Halkjelsvik, Vegard (2026). Russland, Svalbard og den maritime gråsonen: Russiske forskningsfartøys tilstedeværelse og atferd i Fiskevernsonen ved Svalbard, 2010 - 2025. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  I Arktis kan et kart over havbunnen være både vitenskap og sikkerhetspolitikk. Når russiske forskningsfartøy måler havdyp, strømmer og isforhold nær Svalbard, produserer de data som kan ha åpenbar forskningsverdi, men også strategisk betydning. Denne dobbeltheten gjør fartøyenes bevegelser interessante: ikke fordi de i seg selv beviser skjulte intensjoner, men fordi mønstrene kan si noe om hvordan sivile plattformer opererer i et stadig mer sikkerhetspolitisk ladet havområde. Oppgaven undersøker hvordan operasjonsmønsteret til russiske forskningsfartøy ved Svalbard har endret seg i perioden 2010-2025, og i hvilken grad endringene kan forstås i lys av sikkerhetspolitiske vendepunkter, norske reguleringsendringer og russiske strategiske føringer. Det geografiske tyngdepunktet er Fiskevernsonen rundt Svalbard, et folkerettslig omstridt havområde. Studien bygger på et mixed-methods-design som kombinerer kvantitativ AIS-analyse med en kvalitativ dokumentanalyse av norske rettskilder og russiske strategidokumenter. Tilstedeværelse og atferd måles gjennom indikatorer som vessel-hours, fartøysdager og AIS- avbrudd, og de ni mest aktive europeiske forskningsfartøyene brukes som sammenligningsgruppe. Regresjonsmodeller inngår som støtteanalyse. Hovedfunnet er at operasjonsmønsteret har endret seg, men ikke som en generell intensivering. Russiske fartøy følger ikke den økningen og stabiliseringen som kjennetegner EU-gruppen; tilstedeværelsen i sonen blir relativt lavere, og aktiviteten etter 2022 fremstår mer offshore- preget i det utvidede datasettet. AIS-avbrudd gir bare begrenset støtte til en hypotese om systematisk atypisk signalpraksis, mens den geografiske forskyvningen er blant de tydeligste funnene. Dokumentanalysen viser samtidig en skjerping av norsk maritim regulering og økt russisk vektlegging av Arktis. Samlet peker funnene mot et endret og sikkerhetspolitisk relevant operasjonsmønster, men AIS- dataene gir ikke grunnlag for bastante slutninger om intensjon eller årsak. Bidraget er å vise hvordan åpne maritime data, lest sammen med en dokumentanalyse, kan brukes til å undersøke sivile forskningsfartøy som mulige flerbruksplattformer i et omstridt maritimt rom.

• Bratberg, Øivind; Mønnesland, Svein & Kirkhus, Kajsa (2026). Who run the world? Students!. Understanding how the leading role of students in the Serbian protest movement since 2024 is legitimized in public discourse. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This thesis investigates how the leading role of students in the 2024 Serbian protest movement has been legitimized in public discourse, maintaining a specific power structure, and how their legitimate position has contributed towards the astonishing level of mobilization. I have used tools from critical discourse analysis and discursive opportunity structure, to examine how legitimacy of students is (re)produced and how the student movement adapted its message to the Serbian discursive and political environment. Based on analysis of semi-structured interviews with participants in the movement, I have found that legitimacy is a result of four discourses: (1) historical legacy, (2) moral responsibility, (3) desire of political renewal, and (4) trust. Legitimacy in turn influences a social practise of protesting, as it has created a structure in which students have received an opportunity to form the 2024 protest movement. The way in which students have made use of this position by adapting strategies and frames to a certain discursive and political environment, has had notable implications on the movements ability to mobilize. The discursive and political environment is characterized by distrust in the regime and oppositional parties, democratic backsliding, corruption, unreliability, police brutality and violence, and biased media. The movement has adapted itself to this environment by using a non-violent, depoliticised, and direct democratic approach. They organized walking protests and used social media to spread their message, demanding snap elections and running with a student list. The thesis offers a unique contribution to the literature of critical research by demonstrating how power can also be used productively to challenge oppressive regimes.

• Wig, Tore & Owing, Alma Eckhoff (2026). A Force for Democracy? Exploring the Relationship Between Student-Led Protests, Democratic Demands, and Democratic Change. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Across regimes and across centuries, students have been among the most visible actors in mass mobilization. This trend shows no signs of declining, raising important questions about the political content of student-led protest and its consequences for democratic development. Scholars have long examined how mass mobilization shapes democratization, but explanations vary widely on which actors and characteristics make protest most likely to produce democratic outcomes. More recently, student leadership has been studied as a distinct influential factor in mass mobilization. This study investigates the role of student-led protests in processes of democratization, focusing on the demands they articulate and the outcomes they produce. To do so, I draw on political socialization theory and resource mobilization theory and argue that universities both motivate students to articulate democratic claims and mobilize the resources and support needed to convert those claims into democratic outcomes. From these arguments I derive two expectations: that student-led campaigns are more likely than non- student-led campaigns to articulate democratic demands, and more likely to be followed by democratization. To test my expectations, I draw on the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) dataset and Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data covering 151 countries between 1789 and 2019, using regression models with two-way fixed effects. I find strong and consistent support for the first expectation: student- led campaigns are systematically more likely than non-student-led campaigns to articulate democratic demands. Support for the second is more conditional, with a positive democratization association emerging primarily after 1960: the era of mass higher education and global student mobilization. Taken together, the findings suggest that students constitute a distinctive democratic force in modern mass mobilization, with implications for scholarly debates on social composition and protest, as well as for activists and policymakers navigating contemporary democratic backsliding.

• Ravndal, Jacob Aasland; Skare, Erik & Feragen, Kristine Herfjord (2026). Unpacking Causal Complexity in MENA. A QCA Approach to Structural Causes of Political Violence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Abstract and files will be published: 2029-05-29

• Vabo, Signy Irene; Winsvold, Marte Slagsvold & Lyngstad, Alexander W. (2026). Size and Citizens' Conceptions of Democracy. A qualitative study of the influence of the size of the political system on citizens’ conceptions of democracy. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  How does the size of the political system influence citizens’ conceptions of democracy? While a large body of scholarly work has tried to understand what determines support for different conceptions of democracy for a while now, few studies have explored how the demographic context influences democratic conceptions among citizens. This thesis addresses this gap through semi-structured interviews with 20 citizens in Norwegian municipalities of vastly different size. Through the analysis of these interviews, I explore how the effects of size influences support for three conceptions of democracy identified in the literature: Representative, participatory and stealth democracy. I make three claims based on these interviews. First, although most interviewees perceive size as an important factor for how citizens engage in local politics, no significant variation in democratic conceptions caused by differences in size is observed among interviewees. Second, while most interviewees did not hold clear-cut and defined conceptions, almost none of those interviewed wanted a political system where political power was delegated away from representative institutions. Interestingly, this was true for nearly all interviewees despite political orientation, age, education or the size of their political system. Third, while several interviewees would criticise political decisions or politicians in general, there was a distinct lack of stealth democrats among my interviewees, suggesting that stealth democratic conceptions of democracy are rare in the Norwegian context. Overall, these findings suggest that the Norwegian case presents an interesting case to further explore democratic conceptions and their determinants.

• (hovedveileder), Arne Holm; (biveileder), Marthe Indset & Bull, Selma (2026). EØS i gråsonen: en rammeanalyse av EØS-avtalen i stortingsdebatter om EUs tredje og fjerde energimarkedspakke. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Sammendrag og filene vil publiseres: 2027-05-29

• Bratberg., Øivind & Vorkinn., Jorid Skogen (2026). «Man føler seg litt bortprioritert». En fortolkende analyse av politiske standpunkter og begrunnelser blant elever i FrP-dominerte skolemiljøer. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne masteroppgaven undersøker hvilke politiske standpunkter som er fremtredende blant elever i videregående skolemiljøer med høy oppslutning om Fremskrittspartiet (FrP), og hvordan disse standpunktene begrunnes. Studien tar utgangspunkt i den markante økningen i FrPs oppslutning blant unge velgere ved stortingsvalget i 2025, og plasserer utviklingen inn i en bredere litteratur om politiske skillelinjer, «nypolitikk» og høyrepopulisme i Europa. Oppgaven bygger på en fortolkende, kvalitativ tilnærming og analyserer fritekstbegrunnelser og fokusgruppeintervjuer med elever ved tre videregående skoler i ulike deler av Norge. Analysen gjennomføres i lys av to teoretiske rammeverk: Boltanski og Thévenots pragmatiske sosiologi og deres begrep om verdiordener, samt Hooghe og Marks’ GAL–TAN-tese. Mens GAL–TAN benyttes for å undersøke hvorvidt elevenes standpunkter kan forstås som uttrykk for kulturelle og verdimessige konfliktlinjer, brukes Boltanski og Thévenots teori til å analysere hvilke normative prinsipper elevene mobiliserer når de rettferdiggjør sine standpunkter. Analysen finner at de mest fremtredende standpunktene blant elevene er innvandringsskepsis og en oppfatning om at staten prioriterer offentlige ressurser feil. I tillegg fremstår eliteskepsis som et gjennomgående tema på tvers av skolene og de ulike datakildene. Analysen viser hvordan de to førstnevnte standpunktene begrunnes gjennom ulike normative logikker, og at særlig industrielle og medborgerlige argumenter er fremtredende: mange elever diskuterer politiske spørsmål med utgangspunkt i krav om effektivitet, resultater og ansvarlig ressursbruk, men også gjennom henvisninger til velferdsstaten, fellesskapet og statens ansvar overfor «vanlige folk». Samtidig varierer forestillingene om hvem som inngår i dette fellesskapet. Innvandringsskepsis kan til en viss grad forstås som TAN-orientert i GAL–TAN-forstand, mens eliteskepsisen og kritikken av «offentlig sløsing» i større grad lar seg fortolke gjennom Boltanski og Thévenots teori om normative begrunnelseslogikker. Oppgaven bidrar empirisk med et kvalitativt innblikk i unge i FrP-dominerte miljøer, og teoretisk ved å demonstrere hvordan pragmatisk sosiologi kan supplere etablerte tilnærminger i norsk valgforskning.

• Kumlin, Staffan & Emanuelsen, Andrea Lynås (2026). Borgernes evalueringer av europeiske helsesystemer. En flernivåanalyse av systemegenskaper og politisk ideologi. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Sammendrag vil publiseres: 2027-05-15

• Helgøy, Anna Nordnes & Opland, Emma (2026). Overarbeidet og underrepresentert. En kvalitativ studie av kvinnelige fylkespolitikere sitt ambisjonsnivå i lys av det andre og tredje skiftet. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Denne masteroppgaven undersøker hvordan det andre og tredje skiftet påvirker kvinnelige fylkespolitikere sitt politiske ambisjonsnivå. Bakgrunnen for oppgaven er at kvinners underrepresentasjon i politikken kan påvirke den politiske utformingen negativt, ettersom politikken i mindre grad reflekterer den kvinnelige befolkningens interesser. De teoretiske argumentene bygger på tilbuds- og etterspørselsfaktorer, og hvordan disse samspiller med det andre og tredje skiftet i kvinnelige fylkespolitikere sitt ambisjonsnivå. Tilbudsfaktorer omhandler ressurser og forutsetninger hos kvinnene selv, i kombinasjon med ansvar i privatlivet og familie. Etterspørselsfaktorer illustrerer de institusjonelle forholdene og hvilke rammer den politiske institusjonen tilbyr, hvor særlig institusjonens kjønnssensitivitet står sentralt. Kvinnenes ambisjonsnivå ble vurdert fra om de hadde et statisk (forbli på fylkesnivå) og progressivt (bevege seg til et høyere nivå) ambisjonsnivå. Oppgaven benytter en kvalitativ metode basert på semi-strukturerte intervjuer med 13 kvinnelige politikere fra fem ulike fylkeskommuner. De empiriske funnene viser en tydelig sammenheng mellom graden av ansvar knyttet til det andre og tredje skiftet og kvinners politiske ambisjonsnivå. På bakgrunn av dette argumenterer oppgaven for at en høyere belastning fra disse skiftene reduserer sannsynligheten for et progressivt ambisjonsnivå, og i større grad bidrar til et mer statisk politisk ambisjonsnivå.

• Dokken., Karin & Benchi., Sawsan (2026). The Politics of Localisation. Norm Translation and Humanitarian Aid in the Sahel. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016, localisation has become a central reform agenda within the global humanitarian system, aiming to strengthen the leadership and participation of local actors in humanitarian response. However, growing scholarship questions whether localisation has meaningfully redistributed power within the humanitarian system. This thesis examines to what degree global norms of localisation are translated and contested in the Sahel context, and the role Norwegian humanitarian actors play in this process. Drawing on constructivist norm diffusion theory and critical humanitarian governance literature, localisation is conceptualised as a global norm and contested governance process. The thesis applies a qualitative research design, focused on Burkina Faso within the broader Sahel context and is based on semi-structured interviews and document analysis, whereas the empirical data is analysed through abductive thematic analysis. The findings illustrate how localisation in the Sahel region is shaped by tensions between commitments to local ownership and institutional systems related to donor accountability frameworks, risk management and legitimacy. Although localisation is widely supported within the humanitarian system, international actors often retain strategic authority through funding structures and partnerships. This thesis also sheds light on how localisation norms are continuously translated and adapted within politicised humanitarian environments shaped by insecurity and stabilisation agendas. Norwegian humanitarian actors therefore function as intermediary norm agents who promote localisation and contribute to the reproduction of existing institutional hierarchies. This thesis demonstrates that localisation norms in the Sahel are only partially translated into practice, as commitments to local ownership remain largely constrained by donor governance structures, intermediary power relations and politicised humanitarian environments.

• Bakke, Kaja Sparre; Fjærli, Bjørn Rønning & Leendertse, Willem Jacobus (2026). Consent or Dissent?. How electoral outcomes shape support for democratic principles. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A central tenet of democratic theory is that democracies depend on citizens’ support. This thesis therefore investigates how political campaigns ahead of elections shape winners’ and losers’ support for democratic principles. I develop a theoretical framework and a set of hypotheses connecting negative campaigning to affective polarization, perceptions of political conflict, and citizens’ reactions to electoral outcomes. The hypotheses are tested in a randomized controlled experiment, where Norwegian upper secondary school students played politicians and citizens in simulated democratic elections. Campaign tone was manipulated to be neutral by instructing politicians to campaign respectfully, or negative by instructing them to attack and discredit each other. Pre- and post-surveys produced a matched panel (n = 132) and enabled an analysis of covariance. Although none of the proposed hypotheses were supported, I derive several implications from the experimental results. Negative campaigning does not necessarily drive affective polarization, and satisfaction with democracy and support for democratic principles should not be treated as interchangeable forms of democratic support. I find an “inverse winner-loser gap” where election losers display higher support for democratic principles than winners in the negative campaign condition. In response to these findings, I develop a provisional post-hoc theoretical framework and suggest avenues for future research.

• Stankovic, Tatjana & Nilsen, Ingunn Vedeler (2026). Ikke alene om klimaet. Hvordan departementsstruktur former klimapolitikkens effekt. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  --- Sammendrag og filene vil publiseres: 2027-05-29

• Hoffmann, Fabian & Johansen, Marina (2026). Threshold Without Trigger. On NATO's 2014 Recognition of Cyber Attacks Under Article 5. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  On 5 September 2014, at the Wales Summit, NATO recognised for the first time that a cyber attack could lead to the invocation of Article 5, the alliance's collective-defence commitment. This thesis examines whether that recognition is associated with changes in observed cyber activity directed at NATO member states. It considers both the number of recorded cyber incidents over time and the character of those incidents, including what they target, what objectives they pursue, and what effects they produce. If potential adversaries perceived the recognition as a credible signal of NATO's collective resolve, cyber incidents against NATO members should have declined in number, shifted towards more limited, deniable, or information-oriented activity, or both. This expectation is tested using the Dyadic Cyber Incident and Campaign Dataset, a peer-reviewed dataset of state-to-state cyber incidents, for the period 2000 to 2020. The analysis combines regression analysis of the number of incidents with descriptive analysis of their character, comparing incidents directed at NATO members with incidents between states where neither side was a NATO member. The findings do not support the expectation of a decline in number. Recorded cyber incidents against NATO members increased after 2014, but the same pattern appears in incidents between non-NATO states, indicating that the increase was not NATO-specific. The character of incidents, by contrast, changed more in the NATO series than in the comparison, with a shift away from military targets and a rise in long-term espionage. These shifts are directionally consistent with the theoretical expectation, although the design cannot establish whether they reflect the 2014 recognition itself. This thesis contributes by adapting a bargaining framework to alliance-context cyber competition, treating adversaries' uncertainty about NATO's collective resolve as the central mechanism. It also shows that cyber-deterrence signals cannot be evaluated by counting incidents alone, since the character of continued activity may change even when aggregate frequency does not.

• Lund-Tønnesen, Jonas; Fossheim, Karin & Grøndahl, Benedicte Svare (2026). Revisjon uten revisor? En studie av kunstig intelligens og institusjonelle logikker i Kommunerevisjonen i Oslo. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Kunstig intelligens (KI) har for fullt markert sitt inntog på verdensbasis, og har allerede påvirket en rekke yrker og arbeidsoppgaver. KI har stort potensial til å øke effektiviteten og kvaliteten på tjenesteyting i offentlig sektor, gjennom å erstatte arbeidsoppgaver som er tid- og ressurskrevende. Dette gjelder særlig i revisjonssektoren. I det norske demokratiet har revisjon og tilsyn en viktig funksjon i å føre kontroll med bruken av offentlige midler. Samtidig aktualiserer økt bruk av KI spørsmål om ansvarlighet, legitimitet og menneskelig skjønn. Når digitale verktøy i økende grad tas i bruk i revisjon, utfordres etablerte forestillinger om hva revisjon innebærer, og hvilken rolle en revisor skal ha. På bakgrunn av dette undersøker studien hvordan KI tas i bruk i kommunal revisjon, og hvordan institusjonelle logikker kan bidra til å forklare både kontinuitet og endring i revisjonspraksis. Studien bygger på et kvalitativt casestudiedesign av Kommunerevisjonen i Oslo, basert på semistrukturerte intervjuer med seks ansatte i forvaltningsrevisjon. Studien gir et teoretisk bidrag til litteraturen om institusjonelle logikker ved å utvikle to revisjonslogikker. Disse representerer ulike måter å forstå og organisere revisjonsarbeid på, med hver sine distinkte verdier, antakelser og praksiser. Der en tradisjonell revisjonslogikk er preget av manuelle arbeidsformer og menneskeorientert praksis, legger en KI-preget revisjonslogikk til grunn å erstatte menneskelige rutiner med datadrevne og automatiserte prosesser. Funnene viser at KI-bruk i Kommunerevisjonen i Oslo foreløpig er begrenset, støtteorientert og i liten grad integrert i revisjonens kjerneoppgaver. Den tradisjonelle revisjonslogikken fremstår derfor klart dominerende, mens den KI-pregede logikken kun kommer til uttrykk gjennom avgrensede og hybride praksiser. Studien konkluderer med at revisjonspraksis hovedsakelig preges av kontinuitet, der KI må tilpasses eksisterende normer, standarder og arbeidsformer. Endring skjer dermed gradvis og betinget av at teknologien kan forenes med krav om kontroll, kvalitet og ansvarlighet. Studien peker på et behov for å utvikle KI-løsninger som er forenlige med revisjonens lover og standarder, samt å øke kompetanse i kritisk vurdering av algoritmiske beslutningsgrunnlag. Samlet bidrar studien med ny innsikt i hvordan KI påvirker kommunal revisjon i en norsk kontekst, et felt som hittil har vært lite undersøkt.

• Dahlum, Sirianne & Aguila, Runa Kjærnsmo del (2026). Can Gender Shield Protesters from State Repression? A Quantitative Study of Women’s Frontline Participation in Maximalist Protest Movements 1945–2013. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Can women’s visible participation shield protest movements from violent state repression? Existing research suggests that women protesters may make repression appear more excessive, illegitimate, and politically costly. Yet most evidence for this “gender shield” comes from case studies, protest events, or survey experiments. Drawing on a threshold framework, I argue that women’s visibility may constrain repression by raising the symbolic and reputational costs of coercion, but only below a level of perceived threat where regimes treat violence as necessary. Combining campaign-level data from NAVCO 1.2 and the Women in Resistance dataset, I test three hypotheses on 282 maximalist resistance campaigns using Bayesian logistic regression. The analysis finds no clear evidence that women’s visible frontline participation reduces the likelihood of violent state repression, that this association is stronger in nonviolent campaigns, or that it is systematically conditioned by campaign duration. These null findings do not mean that gender never shapes repression. Rather, they suggest that the gender shield is conditional and level-dependent: it may matter in specific encounters or under moderate threat, but it does not produce a detectable protective effect across the high-stakes maximalist campaigns examined here. The results caution against treating women’s frontline presence as a protective strategy without attention to regime context and threat level.

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