The Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models (EITM) Summer Institute is a training program, developed in the United States for graduate students and junior faculty, on the development and application of research designs that integrate theoretical models with empirical research with the purpose of advancing our understanding of politics. The EITM Europe is a similar program, based in Europe and directed by Thomas König of the University of Mannheim, Germany.
In 2023 the research group on Comparative Institutions and Regimes at the Department of Political Science, University of Oslo have the pleasure of inviting EITM Europe to Oslo for the second iteration of EITM-OSLO. The EITM-OSLO is chaired by Bjørn Høyland. The Summer Institute will consist of theoretical and methodological foundations in the first week, followed by a week applying these tools and techniques to the study of parliamentary politics and populism.
The workload is equivalent to 10 ETS credits for those that submit a research paper of 6000 - 10,000 words using the tools and techniques of the summer school. For those participating without submitting a research paper the workload is equivalent to 5 ETS credits.
Please make sure to check the description and syllabus for the seminars in the table below.
Program
The lectures will be held in room 750 in Eilert Sundts Hus between 09:00 and 16:00 on weekdays.
| Date | Seminar | Instructor | Syllabus |
|---|---|---|---|
|
First week |
Theoretical Foundations of EITMOne of the center goals of the EITM program is to promote theoretically informed empirical research. Game theory is a primary tool for building rigorous theories because politics most often involve strategic interactions which lend themselves to game-theoretic analysis. For example, challengers in a parliamentary or congressional race will consider the incumbents' response to such a challenge when deciding whether to run for candidacy or not. Likewise, rebel groups will consider the ability and willingness of an autocrat to fight a rebellion when challenging him. At the same time, standard introductions to game theory often imply that such theories generate only point predictions, unsuitable for testing. In the theoretical foundations seminar we first review basic ingredients of game-theoretic models. We then look at important varieties of rational choice models, specifically non-cooperative game theory and spatial voting models, in a form that emphasizes the techniques by which these models can be used to generate testable implications through comparative statics analysis and the analysis of parameter variations across a population. |
Thomas Bräuninger | LINK |
| First week |
Statistical Foundations of EITMThe basic motivation of EITM is it to closely connect formal theoretical models and empirical statistical tests. This course presents flexible statistical methods that lend themselves to testing predictions from formal models. Our course begins with an introduction to probability models, covering random variables, important probability distributions, and Bayes' theorem. We then discuss the use of maximum likelihood as a method to conduct statistical inference, as well as its relationship to the Bayesian framework of inference. Our discussion of Bayesian inference includes coverage of conjugate Bayesian models, as well as common techniques of statistical simulation such as the Gibbs sampler and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We will conclude with applications of these ideas to the study of formal models in political science. The course will be split between lectures and hands-on lab sessions. We will use the statistical computing software R. |
Richard Traunmüller
|
LINK |
| Second week |
ApplicationsThis is an (almost) entirely applied unit on creating and evaluating substantive tests of theoretical models. We will focus on building research designs to test comparative statics and hypotheses, paying special attention to match of theory and design, and review applications for both experimental and observational data. Students will learn to interrogate their design, make clear and assess the plausibility of their theoretical and empirical assumptions, and discuss their model results openly and accessibly. Issues that are common to applied research, but have varied potential solutions, will be discussed. What if the model implies effects that are not strictly directional? What if expectations are non-linear? What if a predictor is unit-invariant? The course will be a mix of lectures and hands-on lab sessions and exercises, as well as reviewing modern research application of these methods, including but not limited to the study of parliamentary politics and populism. |
David Fortunato & Alexandra E. Cirone |
Social events
TBA
Practical Information
Attendance at the 2023 Summer Institute is tuition-free, but students will need to cover their own travel and accommodation.
Hotels
Blindern Campus is located few metro-stops from the City Centre where there are many hotels to choose from. Lower-cost options are: Comfort Hotel Xpress, Cochs pensjonat, Smarthotel Oslo and Haraldsheim (outside city centre, but on metro-line). Thon Hotel Gyldenløve and Thon Hotel Ullevål stadion are located in areas within walking distance to campus. On a general note, Oslo is a compact city where you can get far within a half hour walk.
Useful links
Funding
EITM-OSLO receives funding from the Research Council of Norway under project number 313969 and is sponsored by ECPR Standing Group on Analytical Politics and Public Choice.