Seminar with Henning Finseraas (Institute for Social Research)
Title of presentation "Local Immigration and Support for Anti-Immigration Parties: A Meta-Analysis" (a paper co-authored with Sara Cools and Ole Røgeberg).
Does the share of immigrants in a community influence whether people vote for anti-immigration parties? We conduct a systematic review of the causal inference literature tackling this question. We collect estimates from 20 studies and develop a new Bayesian meta-analysis framework to account for both between-study heterogeneity in effect sizes and the possibility of reporting bias. While meta analysis methods that do not adjust for reporting bias suggest a moderate effect of local immigration, our Bayesian model finds that the effect of immigration on far-right voting is on average negligible once we account for reporting bias. However, the analysis also finds a large heterogeneity in eff ects across contexts, suggesting that immigration can be important for anti-immigration vote shares in certain settings.