Funding and collaboration
The PhD project is financed by Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). It is a part of the research project Global Trends and Military Operations at the Strategic Analyses and Joint Systems division, which conducts research in support of long-term defence planning in Norway.
Research project
My PhD project looks at the role of prediction in defence planning processes. Defence planning is the main political and bureaucratic process through which states prepare for future war. This process is particularly dependent on making assumptions about the future security environment, as decision-makers require specific advice on the type and number of military forces required in the coming decades. However, defence planning has often been marked by erroneous assumptions in the past.
In this PhD project, I will measure the accuracy of predictions made by professionals and examine the relative influence of factors that shape contemporary judgements on future war.
Academic interests
My main interests include security policy analysis, threat assessments and prediction in political science. I am particularly interested in the role of cognitive psychology in defence planning. Previously, I have researched humanitarian interventions. This included the development of scenarios and a theory on the use of military force to protect civilians from perpetrators of violence.
- Prediction
- Security policy
- Defence planning
Background
2012-present: Researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)
2010-2011: Master of Arts in Conflict, Security & Development, King’s College London (KCL)
2007-2010: Bachelor of Arts in War Studies, King’s College London (KCL)
Research team
My supervisors are Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (PRIO) and Jacob Aasland Ravndal (C-REX, UiO).