Alexander Beadle

PhD candidate

Funding and collaboration

The PhD project is financed by Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI). It is a part of the research project Global Trends and Military Operations at the Strategic ​Analyses and Joint Systems division, which conducts research in support of long-term defence planning in Norway. 

Research project

My PhD project looks at the role of prediction in defence planning processes. Defence planning is the main political and bureaucratic process through which states prepare for future war. This process is particularly dependent on making assumptions about the future security environment, as decision-makers require specific advice on the type and number of military forces required in the coming decades. However, defence planning has often been marked by erroneous assumptions in the past. 

In this PhD project, I will measure the accuracy of predictions made by professionals and examine the relative influence of factors that shape contemporary judgements on future war. 

Academic interests

My main interests include security policy analysis, threat assessments and prediction in political science. I am particularly interested in the role of cognitive psychology in defence planning. Previously, I have researched humanitarian interventions. This included the development of scenarios and a theory on the use of military force to protect civilians from perpetrators of violence. 

  • Prediction
  • Security policy
  • Defence planning

Background

2012-present:   Researcher at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI)

2010-2011:       Master of Arts in Conflict, Security & Development, King’s College London (KCL)

2007-2010:       Bachelor of Arts in War Studies, King’s College London (KCL)

Research team

My supervisors are Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (PRIO) and Jacob Aasland Ravndal (C-REX, UiO).

Publications

Beadle, Alexander W.; Lien, Guro, and Gustavsen, Elin M. (2019), ‘Assessing protection of civilians in military operations’, in Operations Assessment in Complex Operations (NATO Science and Technology Organization).

Beadle, Alexander W., Sverre Diesen, Tore Nyhamar og Eline Knarrum Bostad (2019), ‘Globale trender mot 2040 – et oppdatert fremtidsbilde’ [Globale trends out to 2040 – an updated vision of the future], FFI-rapport 19/00045 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. (2018), ‘FFIs prediksjonsturnering – idé og metodebeskrivelse’ [FFI's prediction tournament - description of idea and method], FFI-rapport 18/00108 (Kjeller: Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt).

Beadle, Alexander W. (2016), ‘Å forske på Forsvaret i fremtiden – muligheter, begrensninger og kognitive fallgruver’ [Military foresight studies – possibilities, limitations and cognitive pitfalls], FFI-rapport 2016/01810 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. og Sverre Diesen (2015), 'Globale trender mot 2040 - implikasjoner for Forsvarets rolle og relevans' [Global trends out to 2040 – implications for the role and relevance of the Norwegian Armed Forces], FFI-rapport 2015/01452 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. og Kjeksrud, Stian (2014), ‘Military planning and assessment guide for the protection of civilians’, FFI-rapport 14/00965 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. (2014), ‘Protection of civilians – military planning scenarios and implications’, FFI-rapport 14/00519 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. (2011), ‘Finding the ‘utility of force to protect’: towards a theory on protection of civilians’, FFI-rapport 11/01889 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

Beadle, Alexander W. (2010), ‘Protection of civilians in theory - a comparison of UN and Nato approaches’, FFI-rapport 10/02453 (Kjeller: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment).

  • Beadle, Alexander William & Kjeksrud, Stian (2018). The utility of military force to protect civilians in UN peace operations, In Peter Nadin (ed.),  The Use of Force in UN Peacekeeping.  Routledge.  ISBN 9781138686861.  5.  s 100 - 123
  • Beadle, Alexander William (2015). Protection of civilians as a new objective in military operations, In Per Martin Norheim- Martinsen & Tore Olav Nyhamar (ed.),  International Military Operations in the 21st Century: Global Trends and the Future of Intervention.  Routledge.  ISBN 978-1-13-881915-3.  11.
  • Keenan, Marla & Beadle, Alexander William (2015). Operationalizing Protection of Civilians in NATO Operations. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development.  ISSN 2165-2627.  4(1) . doi: 10.5334/sta.gr

View all works in Cristin

  • Beadle, Alexander William (2016). Å forske på Forsvaret i fremtiden - muligheter, begrensninger og kognitive fallgruver.
  • Beadle, Alexander William (2015). Beskyttelse av sivile - militære handlemåter.
  • Beadle, Alexander William (2015). Bruk av militærmakt for å beskytte sivile.
  • Beadle, Alexander William (2015). Use of force and protection of civilians.
  • Weltzien, Åsmund & Beadle, Alexander William (2012). Protecting Civilians While Fighting a War in Somalia – Drawing Lessons from Afghanistan. NUPI Policy Brief. 10. Full text in Research Archive.

View all works in Cristin

Published May 8, 2020 3:42 PM - Last modified Aug. 5, 2020 10:56 AM