Oslo Summer School in Comparative Social Science Studies 2015

Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalisation and Climate Change

Lecturer: Professor Michael Bradshaw,
Warwick Business School,
The University of Warwick, UK

Main disciplines: Geography, Political Science,
Environment and Climate

Dates: 27 - 31 July 2015
Course Credits: 10 pts (ECTS)
Limitation: 25 participants


Objectives
The objective of this course is to examine the relationship between two of the greatest challenges currently facing the world, namely energy security and climate change. The growth of population, and the associated processes of economic development and urbanization, is driving demand for energy services. Unfortunately, the current fossil fuel energy system that dominates the global energy mix is also the major source of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases that are the primary cause of climate change. Thus, the world faces a ‘Global Energy Dilemma:’ can it have secure, affordable and equitable access to energy services that are environmentally benign?  Clearly, to overcome this dilemma the world must change the relationship between energy and development and, at the same time, embark on a transition to a low carbon energy system. The course is organized around the supposition that this global energy dilemma plays itself out in different ways in different parts of the world and that understanding these differences is essential to the success of energy and climate change policies. Furthermore, it sees the process of economic globalization as the essential ‘missing link; that ties together the issues of energy security and climate change.

The first part of the course explains the essentials of the energy system (in a non-technical manner) and then examines the historical relationship between energy, economic development and climate change. It then presents the ‘Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus,’ which is the geographical framework that organizes the rest of the course. The second section examines the specifics of the energy dilemmas facing: the developed countries of the OECD; the post-socialist states of Central Europe and the former Soviet Union; the emerging economies and the developing economies of the global South. In each case, two issues are examined in more detail. The final section considers alternative perspectives on climate change and the governance challenges that must be overcome if we are to find solutions to the energy dilemmas that we face that will also bring about a substantial reduction in GHG emissions (in total there are 16 formal lectures an introductory session and 3 review and discussion sessions).

By the end of this course you will have a clear understanding of the interrelationship between energy security and climate change and the role played by economic globalization. You will understand how these complexities play themselves out in the major world regions and will appreciate some of the key issues that face particular regions. Finally, you will appreciate the scale of the governance challenges that must be overcome to achieve the transition to the low carbon energy system that is essential to avoid catastrophic climate change.


Books for preparation

  • Bradshaw, M. J. (2014) Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, 227 pp. Available as an e-book at http://www.polity.co.uk/book.asp?ref=9780745650647
  • Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) (2013) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics (2nd Edition). Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. Available as an e-book at: http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/the-new-energy-crisis-jeanmarie-chevalier/?K=9780230301825
  • Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) (2013) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. (You are not expected to read all 600+ pages and you can use this as a reference text to pursue areas of particular interest to you.) Available as an e-book at: https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/content/energy-and-security
  • Van De Graff, T.(2013) The Politics and Institutions of Global Energy Governance. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke. Available as an e-book at: http://www.palgrave.com/page/detail/the-politics-and-institutions-of-global-energy-governance-thijs-van-de-graaf/?K=9781137320735


COURSE OUTLINE

Session 1: Introduction: Energy, Economy and Environment
This lecture provides an introduction to the course; it introduces the key elements of the energy system and the concept of energy transitions, examines the relationship between energy and economic development and climate change and introduces the concept of the ‘Kaya Identity’.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J (2014) ‘Chapter 1: Introduction’, in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, pp.1-22.
  • Grubler A, Nakicenovic N, Pachauri S, Rogner H-H, Smith KR, et al., 2014: Energy Primer. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Section 3. (Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/TransitionstoNewTechnologies/energyprimer/EnergyPrimer_September2014.pdf


Session 2: The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus
This lecture examines contemporary challenges to global energy security, dimensions of scarcity and the relationship between climate change policy and energy policy. Economic globalization is introduced as a key driver. The lecture concludes by explaining the concept of the ‘global energy dilemmas nexus’ and introduces the geographical framework this is used to organize the rest of the course.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J (2014) ‘Chapter 2: The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus,’ in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, p. 1-23-49.
  • Chevalier, J-M (2013) ‘The New Energy Crisis.’ In Chevalier, J-M (ed.) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Geopolitics (2nd Edition). Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke, pp. 1-52.
  • Newell, R G and Iler, S (2013) ‘The Global Energy Outlook.’ In Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp. 25-69.
  • O’Brien, K and Leichenko, R M (2000) Double Exposure: addressing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization.’ Global Environmental Change 10, 221-232.
  • REN 21 (2014) Renewables 2014 Global Status Report. UNEP, Paris. (See Global Overview Section). Available at: http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/Resources/GSR/2014/GSR2014_full%20report_low%20res.pdf


Session 3: Energy dilemmas in high-energy societies
This lecture considers the energy dilemmas facing the ‘high-energy’ societies of the OECD. The lecture reviews the ‘Kaya characteristics’ of the region and examines recent trends in the relationship between energy, economy and climate. It reviews the region’s commitment to a post-Kyoto climate regime and identifies the key challenges to energy and climate policy.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J (2014) ‘Chapter 3: Sustaining Affluence: Energy Dilemmas in High Energy Societies,’ in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, pp. 50-83
  • International Energy Agency (2014) World Energy Outlook 2014. IEA, Paris. (See materials available at: http://www.iea.org/weo/).
  • Energy Information Administration (2014) International Energy Outlook 2011, EIA, Washington D.C. (Available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/)


Session 4: US: Energy Independence and Climate Complacency
This lecture focuses on specific case of the United States. It presents the key characteristics of the US energy system and the focuses on two issues: energy independence and climate change policy. In the first case we consider the consequences of North America’s newfound fossil fuel abundance. In the second case we consider the barriers to a federal climate change policy and the role of bottom-up initiatives at the state and city level.

Readings:

  • Committee on America’s Energy Future, National Research Council (2009) America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation: Summary Edition. The National Academies Press, Washington D.C. (See materials at: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12710) .
  • Energy Information Administration (2014) Annual Energy Outlook 2014. The Energy Information Administration, Washington D.C. (Available at:http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ (Note: the 2015 will have been published by the time of the Summer School).
  • Executive office of the President (2013) The President’s Climate Action Plan. The White House, Washington D.C. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/image/president27sclimateactionplan.pdf
  • Méritet, S and Salaün, F (2013) ‘The United States Energy Policy: At a Turning Point?’ In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp 102-132.
  • Victor, D G (2013) ‘The Promise of Gas’. In Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp. 88-106.


Session 5: EU: 20/20/20 Vision and beyond
This lecture focuses on the EU-15 and examines their current energy characteristics. It considers the role of ‘energy’ in EU policy-making and the nature the EU’s Energy policy. Two issues are then examined in more detail: the geopolitics of pipeline gas from Russia and the role of energy in EU climate policy.

Readings:

  • Commission of the European Communities (2013) European Energy Security Strategy, CEC, Brussels. (This document and supporting materials are available at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy/energy-security-strategy).
  • Commission of the European Communities (2010) Energy 2020: A Strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy, CEC, Brussels (This document and supporting materials are available at: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/documents/related-document-type/index_en.htm).
  • Dickel, R et al. (2014) Reducing European Dependence on Russian: distinguishing natural gas security from geopolitics. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. (Available at: http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NG-92.pdf)
  • Keppler, J H (2013) ‘Climate Change, Security of Supply and Competitiveness: Does Europe have the means to implement its ambitious energy vision? In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 192-216.
  • Noél, P (2013) European Gas Supply Security: Unfinished Business.’ In Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp. 169-186.


Session 6: The Shale Gas Debate
This will be a class debate about the wisdom of shale gas development and its prospects for the future, with a focus on Europe. Supporting materials will be provided in advance.


Session 7: Energy dilemmas in the post-socialist states
This lecture considers the countries that just over 20 years ago were part of the ‘Soviet block.’ This introductory lecture examines the legacies of the Soviet Planned economies and the impact of economic transition on the interrelationship between energy economy and environment.

Readings:

  • Bouzarovski, S (2010) ‘Post-socialist energy reforms in critical perspective: entangled boundaries, scales and trajectories of change,’ European Urban and Regional Studies 17, 167-182.
  • Bradshaw, M J (2014) ‘Chapter 4: Legacies and Liberalization: energy dilemmas in the post-socialist world,’ in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, pp. 84-119.
  • Campaner, N and Gubaidullin, A (2013) Russia and the Caspian: Between the East and the West.’ In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 102-132.
  • Ürge-Vorsatz, D, Miladinova, G and Paizs, L (2006) ‘Energy transition: from the iron curtain to the European Union,’ Energy Policy 34, 2279-2297.


Session 8: Russia’s Energy Dilemma
This lecture focuses on the specific case of the Russia, which is both a major energy producer and consumer and key trade partner for Europe. The lecture examines the interrelationship between Russia’s status as energy exporter, the desire to modernize and diversify it economy and the potential impact of climate change.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J ‘Russian Energy Dilemmas, energy security, globalization and climate change.’ In Russia’s Energy policies: National, Interregional and Global dimensions. Edited by P Aalto. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, pp. 206-229.
  • Gaddy, C G and Ickes, B W (2013) Caught in the Bear Trap. London: The Legatum Institute. 20 pp. (Available at: http://www.li.com/docs/default-source/country-growth-reports/pid-2013-russia-caught-in-the-bear-trap.pdf)
  • Gustafson, T (2012) ‘Putin’s Petroleum Problem: How Oil is Holding Russia Back – and How it Could Save it’ Foreign Affairs, 91, 6, pp. 83–96.


Session 9: Fuelling Growth: energy dilemmas in the emerging economies
Much of the current concern about energy security is driven by the rapidly growing demand for energy in the emerging economies, particularly China and India. This lecture widens the lens to consider a larger group of fast growing economies; it then assesses the role of the ‘emerging economies’ in various projections of future energy use and carbon emissions.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J (2012) ‘Chapter 5: Fuelling Growth: energy dilemmas in the emerging economies,’ in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, pp. 120-148.
  • Geoffron, P and Rouhier, S (2013) ‘The Questioned Sustainability of the Carbon-Dependent Asia Dynamics.’ In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 53-72.
  • Khatib, H (2014) ‘Oil and natural gas prospects: Middle East and North Africa,’ Energy Policy, 64, 71-77.
  • McLarty, T F (2013), ‘Latin America.’ In Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 344-360.
  • Myers Jaffe, A and Medlock III, K B (2013) ‘China, India, and Asian Energy.’ In Kalicki, J.H. and Goldwyn, D.L. (eds.) Energy and Security: Strategies for a World in Transition. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 283-302.


Session 10: China: powering the workshop of the world
China, more than any other country in the world, epitomizes the energy and climate change challenges associated with rapid economic growth. This lecture details China’s current concerns with energy security and climate change and the policies that are being promoted to address their energy dilemmas.

Readings:

  • Downs, E (2006) The Brookings foreign policy studies energy security series: China. The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C. (Available at: http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH).
  • Energy Information Agency (2014) Country Study: China, EIA, Washington DC. (Available at: http://38.96.246.204/countries/cab.cfm?fips=CH).
  • Energy Policy (2014) Special Issue on China’s Energy Issues in the 12th Five Year Plan and Beyond. (Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03014215/73)
  • Jhang, J (2011) China’s Energy Security: Prospects, Challenges and Opportunities. The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C. (Available at: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/7/china%20energy%20zhang/07_china_energy_zhang_paper.pdf)


Session 11: Energy dilemmas in the global south
Over 1.6 billion people on the planet do not have access to electricity and more than 2.4 billion people still use biomass for cooking and heating. This lecture explores the relationship between the provision of ‘modern’ energy services and development. It also considers the dilemma that the world now faces in terms of seeking to expand access to energy without aggravating climate change.

Readings:

  • Bradshaw, M J (2012) ‘Chapter 6: Decarbonizing development: energy dilemmas in the global south,’ in Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. Polity Press, Cambridge, pp. 149-180.
  • Chevalier, J-M and Ouedraogo, N.S. (2013) ‘Energy Poverty and Economic Development.’ In In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 102-132.
  • UN-Energy (2005) The Energy Challenge for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals. UN, New York. (Available at: http://www.un-energy.org/publications/50-the-energy-challenge-for-achieving-the-millennium-development-goals).
  • World Bank (2010) World Development Report 2010 Development and Climate Change. World Bank, Washington D.C. (Chapter 4: Energizing development without compromising the climate, available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/Chapter-4.pdf).


Session 12: Sustainable Energy for All
This lecture builds on the previous and examines recent analysis of energy challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa and the UN's Decade of Sustainable Energy for All.

Readings:

  • IEA (2011) Energy for All: financing access for the poor. IEA, Paris. (Available at: http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdf).
  • IEA (2014) African Energy Outlook. IEA, Paris (Available at: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/africa/)
  • UN (2014) Decade of Sustainable Energy for All (Visit the website and review the materials available at: http://www.se4all.org/decade/)


Session 13: The Curse of Plenty
This lecture considers the particular challenges that face the energy-rich economies of the developing world. The lecture reviews the causes of the so-called ‘resource-curse’ and the policy measures that can be taken to address it. It then considers the implications of the resource curse for global energy security, with a particular focus on competition between China and the US in Africa for access to energy reserves and the rise of the ‘rentier state.’

Readings:

  • Anoun, M-C. (2013) ‘Oil and Gas Resources of the Middle East and North Africa: A Curse or a Blessing? In Chevalier, J-M. and Geoffron, P. (eds) The New Energy Crisis: Climate, Economics and Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, pp. 133-160.
  • Davis, G. and Tilton, J. (2005) ‘The Resource Curse.’ Natural Resources Forum 29, 233-242.
  • Downs, E.S. (2007) ‘The fact and fiction of Sino-African Energy Relations.’ China Security 3, 42-68.
  • Stevens, P. (2003) ‘Resource impact: curse or blessing? A literature survey.’ Journal of Energy Literature 9, 3-42.


Session 14: Embodied Carbon: trade, development and climate change
While an element of the surging energy demand in the emerging world is being driven by indigenous population growth, urbanization and economic development; economic globalization and participation in international trade is also an important factor. This lecture considers the issue of ‘embodied carbon’ and in doing so re-assesses the relationship between energy security, globalization and climate change policy.

Readings:

  • Davis, S.J. and Caldeira, K. (2010) ‘Consumptions-based accounting of CO2 emissions.’ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107 (12), 5697-56792.
  •  Guan, D., Peters, G.P, Weber, C.L. and Hubacek, K. (2009) ‘Journey to world top emitter: An analysis of the driving forces of China's recent CO2 emissions surge,’ Geophysical Research Letters 36, L04709, doi:10.1029/2008GL036540.
  • Peters, G.P., Minx, J.C., Weber, C.L. and Edenhofer, O. (2011) ‘Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008,’ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(21), 8533-8534.
  • Sato, M (2012) Embodied carbon in trade: a survey of the empirical literature. Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 89, LSE, London. (Available at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/WP77-embodied-carbon-in-trade.pdf) [This paper is for those who are interested in the technical aspects of embodied in trade.]


Session 15: The Global Energy Paradox
This lecture explores the clear contradictions between the future projections of the international oil companies and the views of the IEA and IPCCC. The implications of ideas such as the ‘carbon bubble’ and ‘unburnable carbon’ are explored.

Readings:

  • BP (2014) BP Energy Outlook 2035. BP, London. (Available at: http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/Energy-Outlook/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf) [Note a new version will be published in January 2015).
  • ExxonMobil (2014) The Outlook for Energy: A view to 2040. ExxonMobil, Irving, Texas. (Available at: http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook)
  • McGlade, C et al. (2014) A Bridge to a Low-Carbon Future? Modelling the Long-Term Global Potential of Natural Gas. UKERC, London. (Available at: www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=3716)
  • McGlade, C. and Ekins, P. (2013) ‘Unburnable oil: An examination of oil resource utilization in a decarbonized energy system.’ Energy Policy, 64, pp. 102-112.
  • Carbon Tracker: review the material at: http://www.carbontracker.org
  • Shell (2013) New Lens Scenarios: A Shift in Perspective for a World In Transition. Shell, The Hague. (Available at: http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios/new-lens-scenarios.html; also available as an iPad App and Google Play).


Session 16: Global Governance Challenges
This lecture considers the governance challenges that must be overcome if the world is to overcome the energy dilemmas that we face. The lecture presents the current governance structures that cover, energy, economy and environment and suggests that a more integrated approach is required.

Readings:

  • Florini, A. and Sovacool, B. (2009) ‘Who governs energy? The challenges facing global energy governance.’ Energy Policy 37, 5239-5248.
  • Goldthau, A. (2011) Governing global energy: existing approaches and discourses.’ Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability 3, 213-217
  • Parks, B.C. and Roberts, T. (2008) ‘Inequality and the global climate regime: breaking the north-south impasse.’ Cambridge Review of International Affairs 21, 621-48.
  • Van de Graaf (2013) The Politics and Institutions of Global Energy Governance. Palgrave Macmillan, Basingtoke. (Chapters 1-4 and Chapter 8).


The lecturer
Michael Bradshaw is Professor of Global Energy at Warwick Business School. Perviously he was Professor Human Geography and former Head in the Department of Geography at the University of Leicester, UK. His PhD is from the University of British Columbia, Canada. His research is  at the interface of economic and politcial geography, politics and international studies and energy studies, with a particular focus on Russia and global energy security and climate change. In 2007 he was awarded the Royal Geographical Society’s Back Award for his applied research on economic change in post socialist economies. Most recently his research has focused on energy-related issues. For more than fifteen years he has studied the development of the Sakhalin oil and gas projects in Russia’s Far East. This has led to research on energy security in Northeast Asia. From 2008 to 2011 he was engaged in a programme of research on Global Energy Dilemmas, funded by a Leverhulme Trust Major Research Fellowship that examined the relationship between energy security, globalisation and climate change.

The finding of this project were published by Polity Press in a volume entitled: Global Energy Dilemmas: Energy Security, Globalization and Climate Change. He has recently completed will a two-year research project on the geopolitical economy global gas security funded by the UK Energy Research Centre. He is Editor-in-Chief of Wiley-Blackwell's Geography Compass, Co-Editor of European Urban and Regional Studies and Contributing-Editor of Eurasian Geography and Economics and a past editor of Area. He is an Honorary Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Russian and East European Studies at the University of Birmingham and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Provisional lecture timetable:

Time

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

10:15-12:00

Introductions

 

1. Energy, Economy & Environment

4. US: Energy Independence & climate complacency

5. EU: 20/20/20 vision and beyond

7. Energy dilemmas in the post-socialist states

8. Russia’s Energy Dilemma

11. Energy dilemmas in the global south

12. Sustainable Energy for all

14. Embodied Carbon

15. The Global Energy Paradox

 

12:00-13:30

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

13:30-15:30

2. Global Energy Dilemmas

3. Sustaining Affluence

6. The Shale Gas Debate

Review & Discussion

9. Fuelling Growth

10. China: powering the workshop of the world

13. The curse of plenty

Review & Discussion

16. The Global Governance Challenge

Review & Discussion

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Tags: Globalisation, Energy policy, Human Geography, Climate change, Summer School, PhD
Published Oct. 6, 2014 8:56 AM - Last modified Aug. 14, 2017 1:10 PM