Increasing (but insufficient?) optimism about future life expectancy

Nico Keilman

Photo: N-IUSSP

Published in:

N-IUSSP, October 2018.



In June 2018, Statistics Norway (2018) published its latest population forecast. The agency expects that the average length of life of men will increase to 87 years in 2050. This is six years more than the current value of 81 years. In a forecast published in 1993, the life expectancy prediction for 2050 was eight years lower than in today’s population forecast. For women, the life expectancy prediction for 2050 increased by “only” four and a half years – from 84.5 years in the 1993 forecast to 89 years now. Demographers and other social scientists, in Norway as well as in other developed countries, have systematically underestimated the rate of life expectancy increase. Governments should be concerned about stronger ageing than official forecasts suggest.

Published Oct. 26, 2018 3:49 PM - Last modified Oct. 26, 2018 3:49 PM