Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Solveig Christiansen and Nico Keilman
Published in Demographic Research
June 2013, volume 28, article 43, pp. 1263-1302
Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand.
The purpose of this paper is to compute probabilistic household forecasts for Finland and Denmark, taking advantage of unique housing register data covering the whole populations dating back to the 1980s. A major advantage is that we do not have to rely on small population samples, and we can get quite reliable estimates even for infrequent transitions. A further merit is having time series containing the population in different household positions (dependent child, living with a spouse, living in a consensual union, living alone, lone parent, living in other private household and institutional households) by age and sex.