Yikai Wang, UiO. Zoom-seminar: An Analytical SIR model of Epidemics and How Testing Reduces Infections

Zoom seminar. Yikai Wang is an assistant professor at the University of Oslo. He will present the paper: An Analytical SIR model of Epidemics and How Testing Reduces Infections

Photo of Yikai Wang

Yikai Wang

Abstract:

I modify the classic SIR model of epidemics so that the dynamics of infections can be expressed analytically as one equation and easy to understand. Important properties of disease spread can be characterized analytically. Many simulations from other SIR models suggest that large number of infections (herd immunity) cannot be avoided and short-run policies cannot reduce total infections over the epidemic. This analytical model can be used to understand under which conditions, those results are true, and more importantly, how they can be reverted under other conditions. In particular, increasing infection testing, which identify infected and reduce the contacts of those targeted group, can reduce growth of infections, total infections and even avoid herd immunity. Moreover, other temporary policies can also reduce total infections, if sufficiently many tests are conducted throughout the epidemic. 

Participation

The seminar will take place in zoom. You may download zoom or use your web browser. Please make sure the sound is working on your computer in case you wish to speak. You will automatically be muted when entering the meeting and you must unmute manually to speak. Keep your microphone muted at all times when not speaking and use the function "Raise hand" when you wish to speak. Click "Participants" to see the "Raise hand" and "mute/unmute" functions. You can read more about how to use zoom at the UiO information page for zoom.

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Published Mar. 31, 2020 1:05 PM - Last modified Apr. 3, 2020 8:12 AM