Stéphane Zuber, Paris School of Economics - CNRS
Department seminar. Stéphane Zuber is a researcher at CNRS and the Paris School of Economics. He will present a paper entitled "Integrated assessment of climate and population change: A first pass" co-authored by Antonin Pottier, Marc Fleurbaey, and Aurélie Méjean.
We develop an integrated assessment model with endogenous population dynamics accounting for the impact of global climate change on mortality. An age-dependent endogenous mortality rate, which depends linearly on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, a 3°C scenario and a 2°C scenario) and find that climate-induced deaths per annum range from 160,000 (in the near term) to more than 300,000 (at the end of the century). We examine the number of life-years lost because of climate change in a given year and find figures ranging from 5 to 13 millions annually. Interestingly, the number of life-years lost is constant (BAU) or decreasing (3°C and 2°C scenarios) through time due to changes in the age-composition of future population. Using standard levels of the value of a statistical life, we can estimate that climate change-induced mortality is equivalent to a monetary loss between 0.2% and 0.5% of world GDP each year.
Host: Geir Asheim