Tuesday seminar with Benjamin Wilson
What follows is an excerpt from a paper I am writing about the strategic ideas of Thomas Schelling. I am especially interested in the history of the idea of crisis stability. In the two excerpted sections, I reconstruct the analysis in one of Schelling's famous papers, "The Reciprocal Fear of Surprise Attack." Reading "Reciprocal Fear" very carefully offers some clues about the sources of Schelling's ideas and techniques. Conventional wisdom has been that crisis stability was an idea derived from the idea of the "secure second strike," or from game theory- or both. I disagree, and try to show that the stability idea had a more surprising source.
Schelling's training as a Keynesian macroeconomist.