Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe
By: Jakub Bijak with Solveig Christiansen and Jonathan Forster, Tobie Glestad, Nico Keilman, James Raymer, Peter Smith and Arkadiusz Wisniowski
Published in: Journal of Official Statistics 2013 ;Vol. 29.(4) p. 583-607
In this article, we first discuss the need to augment reported flows of international migration in Europe with additional knowledge gained from experts on measurement, quality and coverage. Second, we present our method for eliciting this information. Third, we describe how this information is converted into prior distributions for subsequent use in a Bayesian model for estimating migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The article concludes with an assessment of the importance of expert information and a discussion of lessons learned from the elicitation process.
Key words: Bayesian modelling, elicitation, expert knowledge, migration statistics, Delphi Survey