Nico Keilman

Professor
Bilde av Nico  Keilman
English version of this page
Telefon +47 22855128
Faks +47 22855035
Rom 1021
Treffetider etter avtale
Brukernavn
Besøksadresse Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus 0851Oslo
Postadresse Postboks 1095 Blindern 0317Oslo

Faglige interesser

Befolkningsframskrivninger, modellering av ekteskap og husholdningsdynamikk, matematisk demografi.

Undervisning

Bakgrunn og karriere

M.Sc. i Anvendt Matematikk, Delft University of Technology, Nederland, 1977. Dr grad i Demografi, University of Utrecht, Nederland, 1990.

Forsker, Avdeling for befolkningsstatistikk, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981); forsker, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990); seniorforsker, SSB (1990-1998).

Verv

  •  Redaktør 2006-2011, Demographic Research
  •  Medlem av editorial board European Studies of Population
  •  Medlem av International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
  •  Medlem av Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, Den Haag
Emneord: Demografi, Samfunnsøkonomi, Inntekt arbeid og velferd

Publikasjoner

Peer reviewed journals

 

Working papers

Books

  • N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp. http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-nb_digibok_2010052503035
  • J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
  • E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991, 239 pp.
  • N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
  •  N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.

 

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  • Bernhoft, Aksel; Albihn, Ann; Hessen, Dag Olav; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Keilman, Nico; Børresen, Trond; Haug, Ruth; Nicolaysen, Anna Marie & Andersen, Regine (2016). Hvordan skal vi sikre et landbruk som kan fø oss i framtiden? .
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Fødsler og fruktbarhet i Norge.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Tar SSB høyde for den usikre demografiske utviklingen i framtiden?.
  • Bijak, Jakub; Alberts, Isabel; Alho, Juha; Bryant, John; Buettner, Thomas; Falkingham, Jane; Forster, Jonathan; Gerland, Patrick; King, Thomas; Onorante, Luca; Keilman, Nico; O'Hagan, Anthony; Owens, Darragh; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševcikova, Hana & Smith, Peter (2015). Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic Population Forecasts for Informed Decision Making. Journal of Official Statistics.  ISSN 0282-423X.  31(4), s 537- 544 . doi: , http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/JOS-2015-0033
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Dimension reduction by Brass' Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Jordens befolkning, "antall munner å mette".
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for five countries in Europe .
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments?.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Probabilistic population and household forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Pensjonsreformen kan bli mye dyrere enn mange tror.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter & Raymer, James (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge.
  • Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study .
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On future households.
  • Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View.  ISSN 1781-6858.  7, s 333- 340 . doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Emerging family and household types in Europe: Issues, definitions and classifications .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Scenarios of demographic change: the role of probabilistic approaches in population projection .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts . Interdisciplinary Communications.  ISSN 0809-8735.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224469.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224278.
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years .
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna . Välfärd.  ISSN 1651-6710.  (3), s 6- 7
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2005). Assumptions for national stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries .
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Population decline postponed in Europe . Statistical Magazine.
  • Keilman, Nico (2004). Long term public old age pension obligations in a stochastic demographic setting in Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Conséquences démographiques et sociales d'une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Q. (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area .
  • Keilman, Nico & Kinsella, Kevin (2004). Families and households in the 2000 round of censuses in ECE member countries .
  • Keilman, Nico & Vogt, Yngve (2004). Utrygg pensjonsreform: Samfunnet kan tape skyhøye beløp . Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).  ISSN 0804-3116.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe .
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Do Cause of Death analyses improve the accuracy of mortality forecasts?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Model based errors and empirical errors in fertility and mortality forecasts for the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). Book review of S. K. Smith, J. Tayman, and D. Swanson ¿ State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis¿. Population Studies.  ISSN 0032-4728.  56(3), s 340- 341
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF LOW FERTILITY FOR FAMILY STRUCTURES IN EUROPE.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (2002). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Age structural transitions in historical perspective: What can we learn from the past?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Children and time: The Norwegian model.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Population Forecasting.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Types of models for projecting mortality.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's Uncertain Demographic Future.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's uncertain demographic future.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Andrew Hinde, Demographic Methods. London: Arnold Publishers 1998. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  16(2), s 187- 188
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Demographic Translation: From Period To Cohort Perspective And Back.

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Publisert 23. sep. 2010 10:31 - Sist endret 17. sep. 2015 13:35