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Nico Keilman

Professor
Bilde av Nico  Keilman
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Telefon +47 22855128
Faks +47 22855035
Rom 1021
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Brukernavn
Besøksadresse Moltke Moes vei 31 Eilert Sundts hus 12.etg. 0851Oslo
Postadresse Postboks 1095 Blindern 0317Oslo

Faglige interesser

Befolkningsframskrivninger, modellering av ekteskap og husholdningsdynamikk, matematisk demografi.

Undervisning

Bakgrunn og karriere

M.Sc. i Anvendt Matematikk, Delft University of Technology, Nederland, 1977. Dr grad i Demografi, University of Utrecht, Nederland, 1990.

Forsker, Avdeling for befolkningsstatistikk, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981); forsker, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990); seniorforsker, SSB (1990-1998).

Verv

  •  Redaktør 2006-2011, Demographic Research
  •  Medlem av editorial board European Studies of Population
  •  Medlem av International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
  •  Medlem av Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, Den Haag
Emneord: Demografi, Samfunnsøkonomi, Inntekt arbeid og velferd

Publikasjoner

Peer reviewed journals

 

Working papers

Books

  • N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp. http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-nb_digibok_2010052503035
  • J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
  • E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991, 239 pp.
  • N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
  •  N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.

 

  • Keilman, Nico; Tymicki, Krzysztof & Skirbekk, Vegard (2014). Measures for human reproduction should be linked to both men and women. International Journal of Population Research.  ISSN 2090-4029. . doi: dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/908385
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data - the case of Denmark and Finland . Demographic Research.  ISSN 1435-9871.  28, s 1263- 1302 . doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.43
  • Keilman, Nico & Keller, Lisa Dahl (2013). Hvor robust er det nye pensjonssystemet med hensyn til levealdersutviklingen?. Samfunnsøkonomen.  ISSN 1890-5250.  (6), s 28- 38
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad; Forster, Jonathan; Keilman, Nico; Raymer, James & Smith, Peter (2013). Utilising Expert Opinion to Improve the Measurement of International Migration in Europe. Journal of Official Statistics.  ISSN 0282-423X.  29(4), s 583- 607 . doi: 10.2478/jos-2013-0041
  • Cohen, Joel; Kravdal, Øystein & Keilman, Nico (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America.  ISSN 0027-8424.  108(29), s 11830- 11835 . doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107993108
  • Alho, Juha & Keilman, Nico (2010). On future household structure. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).  ISSN 0964-1998.  173, s 117- 143
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On age structures and mortality, In Shripad Tuljapurkar; Naohiro Ogawa & Anne Gauthier (ed.),  Ageing in Advanced Industrial States.  Springer.  ISBN 978-90-481-3552-3.  kap 2.  s 23 - 46
  • Keilman, Nico & Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad (2010). Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  26(1), s 47- 72 . doi: 10.1007/s10680-009-9195-9
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2008). Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty, In Juha Alho; Svend Hougaard Jensen & Jukka Lassila (ed.),  Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability.  Cambridge University Press.  ISBN 978-0-521-87740-4.  kap. 3.  s 34 - 54
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Erroneous population forecasts, I: Patrick Festy & Jean-Paul Sardon (red.),  Hommage à Gérard Calot - Profession: démographe.  Institut national d'études démographiques.  ISBN 978-2-7332-4023-6.  -.  s 237 - 254
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate over the past 25 years . Population and Development Review.  ISSN 0098-7921.  34(1), s 137- 153
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2008). Changing views of future demographic trends, In Juha Alho; Svend Hougaard Jensen & Jukka Lassila (ed.),  Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability.  Cambridge University Press.  ISBN 978-0-521-87740-4.  kap. 2.  s 11 - 33
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2007). Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries. . European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  23, s 33- 69 . doi: 10.1007/s10680-006-9104-4
  • Keilman, Nico (2007). UK national population projections in perspective: How successful compared to those in other European countries? . Population Trends.  ISSN 0307-4463.  (129), s 20- 30
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2006). New forecast: Population decline postponed in Europe . Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commision for Europe ECE12.  ISSN 0167-8000.  23(1), s 1- 10
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back, In Guillaume Wunsch; Graziella Caselli & Jacques Vallin (ed.),  Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, A Treatise in Population Studies Volume 1.  Elsevier.  ISBN 978-0-12-765660-1.  Chapter 17.  s 213 - 223
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Households and families, In Guillaume Wunsch; Graziella Caselli & Jacques Vallin (ed.),  Demography: Analysis and Synthesis.  Academic Press.  ISBN 0-12-765664-2.  Ch. 91 in Vol. 3.  s 457 - 476
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Befolkningsnedgang i EØS-området utsatt . SSB-Magasinet.
  • Keilman, Nico (2005). Erroneous population forecasts , In Nico Keilman (ed.),  Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models.  Swedish Social Insurance Agency.  ISBN 91-7500-326-0.  kap. 1.  s 7 - 26
  • Keilman, Nico (2005). The Impact of Demographic Uncertainty on Liabilities for Public Old Age Pensions in Norway . New Zealand Population Review.  ISSN 0111-199X.  31(1), s 35- 50
  • Keilman, Nico & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Hvor lenge kommer vi til å leve? Levealder og aldersmønster for dødeligheten i Norge, 1900–2060 . Økonomiske analyser.  ISSN 0800-4110.  (6), s 43- 49
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Démographie des ménages et de la famille: Application aux pays développés, I: Graziella Caselli; Jacques Vallin & Guillaume Wunsch (red.),  Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Volume VI: Population et société.  Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques.  ISBN 27332-2016-0.  Chapitre 91.  s 345 - 388
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Quang Pham, Dinh (2004). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries. International Statistical Review.  ISSN 0306-7734.  72, s 5- 18
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Biodiversity: The threat of small households . Nature.  ISSN 0028-0836.  421, s 489- 490
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Pensjonskommisjonen bør ta usikkerhet i befolkningsutviklingen alvorlig. . Økonomiske analyser.  ISSN 0800-4110.  (2), s 16- 24
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Types of Models for Projecting Mortality , In Tommy Bengtsson & Nico Willem Keilman (ed.),  Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting.  Social Insurance Board.  ISBN 91-89303-24-5.  kapittel.  s 19 - 27
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Discussion: Should fertility intentions inform fertility forecasts?, In Gregory Spencer (ed.),  The direction of fertility in the United States.  COPAFS.  ISBN 0-9720596-0-1.  kapittel.  s 179 - 181
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2002). Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway . Demographic Research.  ISSN 1435-9871.  6, s 407- 454
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). TFR predictions based on Brownian motion theory. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland.  ISSN 0506-3590.  XXXVIII, s 207- 219
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Uncertain population forecasts . Nature.  ISSN 0028-0836.  412, s 490- 491
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95. Population Studies.  ISSN 0032-4728.  55(2), s 149- 164
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). La translation démographique: des indicateurs du moment aux indicateurs de génération et réciproquement, I: Graziella Caselli; Jacques Vallin & Guillaume Wunsch (red.),  Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Volume I: La dynamique des populations.  Editions de l'Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques.  ISBN 2-7332-2011-X.  s 359 - 378
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). La traslazione demografica: dalla prospettiva di periodo a quella per generazione e viceversa, I: Graziella Caselli; Jacques Vallin & Guillaume Wunsch (red.),  Demografia: La dinamica della popolozioni.  Carocci, Roma.  ISBN 88-430-1883-3.  s 439 - 461
  • Imhoff, Evert Van & Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Comment. Population and Development Review.  ISSN 0098-7921.  26(3), s 549- 553
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Anton Kuijsten, 1944-2000. Bevolking en Gezin.  ISSN 0772-764X.  29(1), s 1- 6
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Précision et incertitudes des prévisions nationales de population, I: Christine Wattelar & Josianne Duchêne (red.),  Le Défi de l'Incertitude: Nouvelles Approches en Perspectives et Prospective Démographique.  Academia-Bruylant/L'Harmattan, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgique.  ISBN 2-87209-525-X.  s 33 - 67
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (2000). Predictive intervals for age-specific fertility. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  16(1), s 41- 66
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). Demographic Translation: From Period to Cohort Perspective and Back, In  Démographie: Analyse et synthèse. Causes et conséquences des évolutions démographiques.  Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università di Roma "La Sapienza".  s 1 - 14
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). Over tijd en kinderen: Het Noorse model. Facta.  7, s 12- 16
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). The future of social solidarity in Europe: The demographic background, In Godrun Gaarder (ed.),  Towards flexible welfare states: The future of social solidarity in Europe.  Europa-programmet, Oslo.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1998). Female Dominance, In Anton Kuijsten; Henk De Gans & Henk De Feijter (ed.),  The joy of demography ¿.. and other disciplines: Liber Amicorum for Dirk van de Kaa.  Thela - Thesis Publ., Amsterdam.  s 215 - 228
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1998). How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections?. Population and Development Review.  ISSN 0098-7921.  24(Supplement), s 15- 41
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (1998). Optimistische demografen, I: Piet Hermkens; René Van Rijsselt & Karin Sanders (red.),  Differentiatie en samenleving: Opstellen voor Henk Becker.  Thela Thesis, Amsterdam.  ISBN 90-5170-459-3.  s 177 - 200

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  • Keilman, Nico (ed.) (2005). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting No. 2: Probabilistic Models. Swedish Social Insurance Agency.  ISBN 91-7500-326-0.  79 s.
  • Bengtsson, Tommy & Keilman, Nico Willem (ed.) (2003). Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting. Social Insurance Board.  ISBN 91-89303-24-5.  97 s.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Lyngstad, Jan; Bojer, Hilde & Thomsen, Ib O (ed.) (1998). Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Scandinavian University Press.  ISBN 82-00-22493-7.

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  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments?.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Pensjonsreformen kan bli mye dyrere enn mange tror.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter & Raymer, James (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge.
  • Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study .
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On future households.
  • Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View.  ISSN 1781-6858.  7, s 333- 340 . doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Emerging family and household types in Europe: Issues, definitions and classifications .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Scenarios of demographic change: the role of probabilistic approaches in population projection .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts . Interdisciplinary Communications.  ISSN 0809-8735.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224469.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internett].  http://nrk.no/programmer/tv/schrodingers_katt/1.6224278.
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years .
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna . Välfärd.  ISSN 1651-6710.  (3), s 6- 7
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2005). Assumptions for national stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries .
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Population decline postponed in Europe . Statistical Magazine.
  • Keilman, Nico (2004). Long term public old age pension obligations in a stochastic demographic setting in Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Conséquences démographiques et sociales d'une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Q. (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area .
  • Keilman, Nico & Kinsella, Kevin (2004). Families and households in the 2000 round of censuses in ECE member countries .
  • Keilman, Nico & Vogt, Yngve (2004). Utrygg pensjonsreform: Samfunnet kan tape skyhøye beløp . Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).  ISSN 0804-3116.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe .
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Do Cause of Death analyses improve the accuracy of mortality forecasts?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Model based errors and empirical errors in fertility and mortality forecasts for the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). Book review of S. K. Smith, J. Tayman, and D. Swanson ¿ State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis¿.. Population Studies.  ISSN 0032-4728.  56(3), s 340- 341
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF LOW FERTILITY FOR FAMILY STRUCTURES IN EUROPE.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (2002). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Age structural transitions in historical perspective: What can we learn from the past?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Children and time: The Norwegian model.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Population Forecasting.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Types of models for projecting mortality.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's Uncertain Demographic Future.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem; Pham, Dinh Quang & Hetland, Arve (2001). Norway's uncertain demographic future.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Andrew Hinde, Demographic Methods. London: Arnold Publishers 1998. European Journal of Population.  ISSN 0168-6577.  16(2), s 187- 188
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2000). Demographic Translation: From Period To Cohort Perspective And Back.
  • Imhoff, Evert Van & Keilman, Nico Willem (1999). On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Comment.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Hetland, Arve (1999). Simulated confidence intervals for future period and cohort fertility.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (1998). Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility.

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Publisert 23. sep. 2010 10:31 - Sist endret 17. nov. 2013 15:30