Matteo Alpino, UiO: On the electoral effectiveness of pre-election policy promises

Department seminar. Matteo Alpino is a Ph.D Candidate at UiO. He will present a paper entitled "On the electoral effectiveness of pre-election policy promises".

Photo of Matteo Alpino

Matteo Alpino. Photo: UiO


Can politicians gain votes by means of economic policy promises made during an election campaign? I empirically address this question by investigating voters’ behavior in response to a specific electoral announcement: Silvio Berlusconi’s promise to abolish the property tax on primary residences during the last days of the 2006 Italian election campaign. As homeowners would have been directly​ affected by the policy change, while renters would not have been, I am able to estimate the electoral effect of the announcement using a Difference-in-Differences approach in two independent datasets: an electoral survey and municipal-level electoral data. Both exercises suggest that Berlusconi’s promise increased his vote share by a significant amount, which was large enough to be decisive.

Read the paper here (.pdf)

Published June 14, 2017 12:10 PM - Last modified June 15, 2017 11:54 AM