Nico Keilman

Image of Nico  Keilman
Norwegian version of this page
Phone +47 22855128
Fax +47 22855035
Room 1021
Visiting address Eilert Sundt building Moltke Moes vei 31 NO-0851 Oslo Norway
Postal address Department of Economics University of Oslo P.O. Box 1095 Blindern NO-0317 Oslo Norway

Academic Interests

Population forecasting, modelling marriage and household dynamics, mathematical demography.

Courses taught



  • M.Sc. in Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands, 1977
  • Ph.D. in demography, University of Utrecht, the Netherlands, 1990
  • Research officer, Department of Population Statistics, Statistics Netherlands (1977-1981)
  • Research associate, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (1982-1990)
  • Senior research associate, Statistics Norway (1990-1998).


Positions held

  • Editor 2006-2011, Demographic Research
  • Member, editorial board European Studies of Population
  • Member, International Editorial Committee, Population, Paris
  • Member, Scientific Advisory Council Netherlands Demographic Institute, The Hague


Tags: Demography, Economics, Income Employment and Welfare


Papers in peer reviewed journals


Working papers


  • N. Keilman, J. Lyngstad, H. Bojer, and I. Thomsen (eds.) Poverty and Economic Inequality in Industrialized Western Societies. Oslo: Scandinavian University Press, 1998, 334 pp.
  • J.-P. Gonnot, N. Keilman and C. Prinz, Social Security, Household and Family Dynamics in Ageing Societies. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1995, 235 pp.
  • E. van Imhoff and N. Keilman, LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam and Berwyn, PA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1991, 239 pp.
  • N. Keilman, Uncertainty in National Population Forecasting: Issues, Backgrounds, Analyses, Recommendations. Amsterdam and Rockland, MA: Swets and Zeitlinger Publishers, 1990, 211 pp.
  •  N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen (eds.), Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1988, 298 pp.



  • On age structures and mortality. Pp. 23-46 in S. Tuljapurkar, N. Ogawa, and A. Gauthier (eds.) Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves Vol. 3. Dordrecht etc.: Springer 2010.
  • Changing views of future demographic trends. Pp. 11-33 in J. Alho, S. Hougaard Jensen, and J. Lassila (eds.) Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2008 (first author, with H. Cruijsen and J. Alho).
  • Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty. Pp. 34-54 in J. Alho, S. Hougaard Jensen, and J. Lassila (eds.) Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 2008 (third author, with J. Alho and H. Cruijsen).
  • Demographic translation: From period to cohort perspective and back. Pp. 215-225 in G. Wunsch, G. Caselli and J. Vallin (eds.) Demography: Analysis and Synthesis. Elsevier 2006.
  • Erroneous Population Forecasts. Pp. 7-26 in N. Keilman (ed.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol II Probabilistic models. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2005 (Social Insurance Studies 2). An updated and slightly extended version was published under the same title in P. Festy and J.-P. Sardon (eds.) Profession démographe - Hommage à Gérard Calot. Paris: INED 2009.
  • Types of Models for Projecting Mortality. Pp. 19-28 in T. Bengtsson and N. Keilman (eds.) Perspectives on mortality forecasting: Vol I Current practice. Stockholm: Swedish National Social Insurance Board 2003 (Social Insurance Studies 1).
  • Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area. Discussion Paper 386 August 2004, Statistics Norway (with Dinh Quang Pham) [pdf]
  • Levealderen - hvor gamle blir vi? ("Life expectancy - How old will we be?") Trygd & Pensjon nr. 3 2004 [pdf]
  • La traslazione demografica: dalla prospettiva di periodo a quella per generazione e viceversa. Pp 439-461 G. Caselli, J. Vallin, e G. Wunsch Demografia: La dinamica delle popolazioni. Roma: Carocci, 2001
  • La translation démographique: des indicateurs du moment aux indicateurs de génération et réciproquement. Pp. 359-378 dans G. Caselli, J. Vallin, et G. Wunsch Démographie: analyse et synthèse. Vol. I La dynamique des populations. Paris: Editions de l'Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 2001
  • Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population. Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds. Washington DC, National Academy Press, 2000. (Contributions to Chapters 2 (The Accuracy of Past Projections) and 7 (The Uncertainty of Population Forecasts)
  • Précision et incertitudes des prévisions nationales de population. Pp. 33-67 dans C. Wattelar and J. Duchêne (réd.): Le Défi de l'Incertitude: Nouvelles Approches en Perspectives et Prospective Démographique. Institut de Démographie, UCL Louvain-la-Neuve, Academia-Bruylant/L'Harmattan, 2000
  • The future of social solidarity in Europe: The demographic background. In G. Gaarder and F. Orban (eds.) Towards flexible welfare states: The future of social solidarity in Europe. Seminar report Europa Qua Vadis III. Oslo: Europa-programmet 1999
  • Female dominance. Pp. 215-228 in A. Kuijsten, H. de Gans and H. de Feijter (eds.) The joy of demography ….. and other disciplines: Essays in honour of Dirk van de Kaa. Amsterdam: Thela - Thesis Publ., 1998
  • Optmistische demografen ("Optimistic demographers") Pp. 177-200 in P. Hermkens, R. van Rijsselt en K. Sanders (red.) Maatschappelijke veranderingsprocessen: Sociologische opstellen voor Henk Becker. 1998
  • Household developments in Europe after World War II: Trends and explanations. Pp. 3-12 in O. Gulbrandsen, B. Moen and N. Keilman (eds.) «Norske husholdninger i forandring». Oslo: Norges forskningsråd, 1997
  • Household concepts and household definitions in Western Europe: Different levels but similar trends in household developments. Pp. 111-135 in E. van Imhoff, A. Kuijsten, P. Hooimeijer, and L. van Wissen (eds.) Household Demography and Household Modelling, Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis. New York: Plenum Press, 1995


View all works in Cristin

View all works in Cristin

  • Keilman, Nico (2017). Period and cohort life expectancy, mortality compression, and age at death distribution.
  • Bernhoft, Aksel; Albihn, Ann; Hessen, Dag Olav; Holmboe-Ottesen, Gerd; Keilman, Nico; Børresen, Trond; Haug, Ruth; Nicolaysen, Anna Marie & Andersen, Regine (2016). Hvordan skal vi sikre et landbruk som kan fø oss i framtiden? .
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). A two-sex model for first marriage.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Barnefamilier, fruktbarhetsnivå og samfunnsplanlegging.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Befolkning: Statistisk sentralbyrå bør endre praksis og publisere sannsynlighetsprognoser. Samfunnsøkonomen.  ISSN 1890-5250.  (3), s 59- 66
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Fødsler og fruktbarhet i Norge.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Probabilistic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands 2011-2041: Combining the Brass relational method with a Random Walk model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2016). Tar SSB høyde for den usikre demografiske utviklingen i framtiden?.
  • Bijak, Jakub; Alberts, Isabel; Alho, Juha; Bryant, John; Buettner, Thomas; Falkingham, Jane; Forster, Jonathan; Gerland, Patrick; King, Thomas; Onorante, Luca; Keilman, Nico; O'Hagan, Anthony; Owens, Darragh; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševcikova, Hana & Smith, Peter (2015). Letter to the Editor: Probabilistic Population Forecasts for Informed Decision Making. Journal of Official Statistics.  ISSN 0282-423X.  31(4), s 537- 544 . doi: ,
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Dimension reduction by Brass' Relational Model: Household Dynamics in Five European Countries.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Jordens befolkning, "antall munner å mette".
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe. Full text in Research Archive
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico (2015). Stochastic household forecasts for five countries in Europe .
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Dimension reduction of household parameter time series by the Brass logit model.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Norway’s new public pension system: Is it robust against unexpected life expectancy developments?.
  • Keilman, Nico (2014). Probabilistic population and household forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Pensjonsreformen kan bli mye dyrere enn mange tror.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Probabilistic demographic projections.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). Uncertainty in population projections - with special reference to the UK.
  • Keilman, Nico (2013). "What is happening in modern demography: life course analysis, policy evaluation, dimension reduction, prediction intervals in demographic forecasting".
  • Christiansen, Solveig Tobie Glestad & Keilman, Nico (2012). Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data: the case of Denmark and Finland.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Challenges for statistics on households and families.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). College huishoudensprognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Integrated modelling of European migration flows: Methodology and main results.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Missing girls in China will lead to fewer future births than previously thought.
  • Keilman, Nico (2012). Onzekerheid in demografische prognoses.
  • Keilman, Nico & Van Duin, Coen (2012). Stochastic household forecasts by coherent random shares predictions.
  • Wisniowski, Arkadiusz; Keilman, Nico; Bijak, Jakub; Christiansen, Solveig; Forster, Jonathan; Smith, Peter & Raymer, James (2011). Augmenting migration statistics with expert knowledge.
  • Graziani, Rebecca & Keilman, Nico (2010). The sensitivity of the Scaled Model of Error with respect to the choice of the correlation parameters: A Simulation Study .
  • Keilman, Nico (2010). On future households.
  • Keilman, Nico (2009). Failure and success: In-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Concern in the European Union about Low Birth Rates. European View.  ISSN 1781-6858.  7, s 333- 340 . doi: 10.1007/s12290-008-0055-5
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Emerging family and household types in Europe: Issues, definitions and classifications .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Scenarios of demographic change: the role of probabilistic approaches in population projection .
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Uncertain population forecasts.
  • Keilman, Nico (2008). Using deterministic and probabilistic population forecasts . Interdisciplinary Communications.  ISSN 0809-8735.
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). AFP en ulykke for landet. [Internett].
  • Keilman, Nico & Veløy, Chris (2008, 17. september). Europa kan halveres på to generasjoner. [Internett].
  • Alho, Juha; Cruijsen, Harri & Keilman, Nico (2006). Empirically-based specification of forecast uncertainty.
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). European demographic forecasts have not become more accurate during the past 25 years .
  • Keilman, Nico (2006). Livslängd och invandring spräckte prognoserna . Välfärd.  ISSN 1651-6710.  (3), s 6- 7
  • Keilman, Nico; Cruijsen, Harri & Alho, Juha (2006). Diverging views of future demographic trends.
  • Alders, Maarten; Keilman, Nico & Cruijsen, Harri (2005). Assumptions for national stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries .
  • Alho, Juha; Alders, Maarten; Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico; Nikander, Timo & Pham, Dinh Quang (2005). Population decline postponed in Europe . Statistical Magazine.
  • Keilman, Nico (2004). Long term public old age pension obligations in a stochastic demographic setting in Norway.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2004). Conséquences démographiques et sociales d'une faible fécondité pour les structures familiales en Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Q. (2004). Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area .
  • Keilman, Nico & Kinsella, Kevin (2004). Families and households in the 2000 round of censuses in ECE member countries .
  • Keilman, Nico & Vogt, Yngve (2004). Utrygg pensjonsreform: Samfunnet kan tape skyhøye beløp . Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.).  ISSN 0804-3116.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic and social implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe .
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Demographic implications of low fertility for family structures in Europe.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Do Cause of Death analyses improve the accuracy of mortality forecasts?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2003). Model based errors and empirical errors in fertility and mortality forecasts for the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2002). Book review of S. K. Smith, J. Tayman, and D. Swanson ¿ State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis¿. Population Studies.  ISSN 0032-4728.  56(3), s 340- 341
  • Keilman, Nico Willem & Pham, Dinh Quang (2002). Time series based errors and empirical errors in fertility forecasts in the Nordic countries.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Age structural transitions in historical perspective: What can we learn from the past?.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Children and time: The Norwegian model.
  • Keilman, Nico Willem (2001). Population Forecasting.

View all works in Cristin

Published Sep. 23, 2010 10:40 AM - Last modified Aug. 5, 2015 1:34 PM